What's new
What's new

About that deficit

Wayne02

Aluminum
Joined
Mar 9, 2004
Location
Western WA
You know, the big evil deficit some people are always heming and hawing about. What are the quantifiable short and long term ramifications of a "too large" deficit.

How large is too large? Who makes that call? In business things that get measured and have targets get done. We measure the heck out of the deficit, but is there any real target??? How large is too large? Where is the right balance?

What if we were to set a hard limit based on x percentage of the GDP? Would this maybe provide some balance and focused attention on deficit levels, or would it create more problems then it solved?

Wayne
 
One of the problems is the administration can just change the rules, interpretation of them, value of the money, etc at will and never admit there is anything wrong....... it is as my dad says "Figures can lie and liars can figure"....... and the sick part is.... he used to prepare budget numbers for congress....
 
Wayne02 - I belong to a group of business heads (CEOs of companies in the greater Portland Oregon area) and I posted a similar question to them and the fact of the matter is, no one in the group really had a good solid idea of the real ramifications of the size of the deficit as it relates US economic health. There was the obvious implication that it can't be good, but actual quantifiable answers on exactly what policies / factors / indices would be affected were not clear.

I also have to admit that the DEMS in the group were quick to slam the present administration while the REPUBS were quick to point out that we are fielding two wars bla bla bla - again, niether perspective offered any credible answer or anything profitable so far as discussion goes.

We did however agree to each do research on the topic and see if we could find a "economics guru" who might be interested in putting together a writeup on the topic for us slanted towards how it will affect US manufacturing industries in the next decade.

Good question!
 
"...if we could find a "economics guru"..."

They should all be round up and shot. A good part of the deficit problems comes from the advice given by so-called gurus like Keynes and Friedman, and the politician who embraced their money expansive ideas with little regard to the consequences: FDR, Johnson, Greenspan and Dubya (to mention a few)

My definition of deficit is that you're eating more cookies than you can possibly bake. So if you cant make enough yourself, you'll borrow for more, or beg someone else to make them for you, with promises to make good later. This can go on indefinitely, until the producers/lenders wise up and pull the plug. Then the party's over.

Long term effect? Hyperinflation followed by collapse and depression, maybe some political upheaval thrown in for good measure.

Think:
Germany after the Weimar Republic.
Brazil nearly every other year.
Argentina a few years ago.

Cant happen here though...we've got it all figured out. :rolleyes:
 
Rivett,

Its not as simple as lying in the budget numbers you supply to congress. A carefully asked question from congress will elicit the "information" they want, allow them to conceal the real issue, and spend the pork where they want.

Stu
 
Can you imagine the federal govt going to someone asking for a loan?

It's gotta be gettin close to what it would be like if I went and asked for a loan to buy a house.

Do you have a job?

Yes

How much do you make?

5 thousand a year

What do you spend on living expenses every year?

10 thousand

How much would you like to borrow?

100,000

How do you intend to pay the loan off making only 5 thousand a year and spending 5 thousand that you dont have?

Uncomfortable silence

-Jacob
 
My ex-wife's grandfather wrote articles on the money supply years ago for the Wall Street Journal on a regular basis. He wasn't an economist, but rather a graduate of Yale Law School (1891 at the age of 20, lived to be 100 and was their oldest living graduate for eons). He worked for years as a judge in Hartford CT and farmed shade grown tobacco, and had a conservative viewpoint regarding monetary policy. She has a copy of a book he wrote and published in the 1930's. In his book he talked primarily about the rumblings that were going on at that time about moving to a non-backed currency. Of course at that time there were still plenty of people who were still suspicious of any "paper money", but that wasn't his focus. He concentrated on the long term effects and predicted with great accuracy that the real problem would be Congress's propensity for deficit spending, since by nature they would want to spend more and more, and this would allow them to do just that while not having to face the politically unpopular idea of raising taxes to support the additional spending. Even with the foresight he had, I seriously doubt he could have grasped just how deep the hole really is that we've managed to spend ourselves into.

I've seen some arguments that claim the deficit has no real long term ill effect, and some of the reasoning seems to make sense, but it's still hard to buy. History doesn't seem to provide any examples of any person, organization, or country who has spent in excess of its income for a long period of time without the debt eventually coming home to roost. I have to concur with Ferrous' thought that we have too many glaring examples from the relatively recent past to believe we're somehow exempt from the same fate at some point in the future.
 
When the Federal Government spends more money than is available from current revenues (taxes), it finances that overrun by selling treasuries (bonds, bills, and notes), thus incurring debt. As has been pointed out however, the answer to the question as to how much debt is too much is elusive due to the nature of the way the government is financed. In theory, the public sector is the only segment of the economy where it is safe, even beneficial to run a deficit. This is because the government possesses something that no other sector of the economy posses: the power of “full fiscal recapture”. In other words, the power of taxation.

When an individual like you or I, a business, or even to some extent a state or local government incurs debt, this represents an actual liability; wealth must be transferred to a distinct and separate entity, over which the borrower has no control, to satisfy the debt. If this transfer cannot be made, the borrower will go bankrupt.

The government is in a much different position. Most of the bondholders (banks, institutions, or citizens) to whom it owes its debt belong to the same community as that from where it extracts its revenue (with the exception of foreign debt, that’s where the real rub lies). Thus, the government does not have to transfer wealth to a separate entity to pay its debt. Instead, it transfers funds from members of the national community over which it has legal power (taxpayers) to other members of the same community to whom it owes money (bondholders). On a national level, this internal debt is no more than a redistribution of claims among members of the same community, which actually serves the beneficial purpose of stimulating economic activity (even the salaries of lazy government workers eventually work their way back into the economy).

The question of how much debt is too much is difficult to quantify. It is possible that if all bondholders suddenly redeemed their claims there would be a run for cash on the treasury, but even this would be (in theory) not a problem. We’ve all heard the cliché that we are mortgaging our grandkids future. However, those future generations are also the inheritors of those same interest-bearing (revenue generating) securities. Since those same bondholders would be giving up future revenues to their portfolios, we would simply be exchanging one type of cash flow for another (increased revenues in the future for cash-in-hand and higher taxes now).

As noted before, the chink in this chain comes from those government securities bought by foreigners. Those debts do represent a real transfer of wealth outside of our national boundaries and thus are TRUE liabilities. The question as to how much here is too much is also hard to answer. Since US currency (as are most modern economies) is no longer on the gold standard, our money is backed by the “good faith and taxing power” of the US government. As long as the Fereners believe that you and I are able to keep paying our taxes and Uncle Sam will continue collecting them, they will continue to lend us money. In theory we could go on indefinitely until the entire country is mortgaged to the hilt (like leasing a car, only on a national, perpetual basis). At some point though, I believe they will lose confidence on an ever increasingly burdened US taxpayer. At which point the “Party is Over”!
 
Well how much is too much ?
we are about 30 % of GDP as I recall
Germany and Britain are about 75 %, so if we look at those Socialised States, we can say that we still are only half of what others are...But in simple terms, lets look at our selves.. Folks here think nothing of buying a house and going into debt for 3 times their earnings ( ie, 60K income, 180K mortgage)
So now we can say that the govenment can go about 9 times more than it has...WOW..
The reason they spend is because they can tax (earn ) when they need it, so don't worry about it..
Now lets go back to the guy with the 180K mortgage. If his overtime drops , his earnings drop...in our economy, this is called a "recession" and he then has to charge more to his credit card ( while our Gov. calls this Deficit spending)
the big difference is, he has to wait for more work to increase his earnings. the gov does not!
Now the secret of why the Pyramid scheme works...it's called inflation.. thats why the government wants it, as it lowers future liability, and they can get more taxes from higher wages....and it goes around and around.

Think about this..The Government should be borrowing now that interest rates are low ie 3%
And NOT borrowing when high interest rates exhist.
so when yields were 11% 10 20 years ago we should have been screaming... as that is a real cost that no one talks about...do you buy a house when rates are at 10 %..not hardly

So to some up all this, if the Government gets in trouble, they cause more inflation, which really cuts down the "liability" of there debt..
Who pays for this silly game? We do, or any one who buys bonds and is waiting for thier principal some day.
 
Pardon this comment from by stander but in above
example of $180k debt there is another disturbing trend called bankrupcy or the great citizens "do over". This is not possible with Governments one can hope. A distinct point also was made as to
the extent US T bills are being grabbed by foreign
investors. With the dollar value being allowed to
slip lower to make U.S. made products sell "over there" the system seems counter productive. What happens if world traders also succeed in pushing Oil trade based on U.S.Dollar to Euros. RB
 
Rich has hit on the time honored solution to government spending problems, debase the currency i.e. inflation. This solution goes back thousands of years so don't expect any change soon.
 
Nobody wants a change anytime soon, either.

We Americans want this high-rolling materialistic binge to go on forever.

Hell, we've gootten away with it this long, why even think about doing things differently?

People complain about The Fed and money that has no backing - and then they go out and swipe their credit cards!

How about direct deposit? You go to work and at the end of the week you don't even get company scrip or a check, somebody's computer diddles the numbers in your bank account!

Talk about Funny Money!

You did real work. You got unreal wages.

From those unreal wages, Uncle Sam witheld unreal Payroll taxes to fund the unreal Socal Security and Medcare payments he makes.

He witholds unreal income tax to fund the unreal payments of the operating expenses of the government.

What prevents him from floating unreal bonds and unreal treasuries?

It is an unreal debt and it will be paid by unreal funds, just like the unreal funds that will show up in your account this very afternoon!

Not a Dollar Bill nor a single coin changes hands.

And we are worried about the Gold Standard for currency? We don't use currency any more.

Go out and try to make a $15,000.00 cash purchase. You might get arrested on the suspicion that you are a drug dealer or that you are laundering money for some illegal or maybe terrorist organization.

Here is the real kicker.

From now on out, if you work for someone, you are on a fixed income.

Their computers already know what you will be given in wages at any point in your career with the company.

When you change employers, you won't change career clasification, unless the change is to a lower wage rate. Nowadays this holds true for college educated workers as well as day laborers.

As long as you aren't making any "cash money" on the side, you are in lock step with the entre monitary system.

Making cash money on the side keeps getting closer and closer to illegal every day.

Welcome to our Brave New World!
 
Since there is no gold standard or anything else, one thing that the government can also do is print more money to cover thier debits.

Suppose that one day the US government decides to repay all thier outstanding debits. How would they do this, well what they could do is crank up the printing press at the Treasury and print as much money as possible to pay all the holders of debit.

It would crash the value of the currency but the deficit would instantly become a moot point.
 
If there is no gold standard then why would printing up mors currency, or the more likely situation, conjuring up more electronic funny money, cause inflation?

Money looses value when there is too much money chasing too few goods. There are plenty of goods and services out there. why not shovel some new money out so that the stuff doesn't have to be paid for by debt?

The only true standard for a currency is the amount of people who use it. So many people use the dollar not that there isn't enough gold on the planet to back it. And why?

As long anyone accepts the Dollar in trade, it is good.

How about the current mouthworks concerning pricing oil in Euros? That will go over like a pregnant high diver.

The USA is the world's biggest and steadiest oil customer. They will buy their oil with dollars. If the oil is priced in Euros, then the USA will set the Dollar-Euro exchange rate simply by the magnitude of their purchases.

Money is no longer a problem for the USA. We just gin it up, call it out in Dollar amounts and it is accepted.

The crunch will come not because of our national debt, but when the whole world starts running out of natural resources. Money can only buy stuff, it can't make what stuff is made out of.
 
Did take a few classes in economics for my MBA.

Think there are 2 basic problems with US debt:

1) The cost of servicing the debt. When we borrow to purchase a home, a 30 year note requires two or three times the borrowed amount due to interest payments to fully pay it off (depending on interest rates). In the case of our Gov't, the interest payments are dollars going somewhere else instead of being spent for the public. Today, a lot of US debt is bought by people in other countries, often from the oil rich ones so the intrest payment really does go somewhere else.

2) Gov't debt competes with private borrowing and drives interest rates higher than they would be without the federal borrowing. If countries cannot fully finance their debt, they usually print more money which drives inflation. Neither are good for the folks trying to make a living or buy a home.

How much debt is too much, only history can tell us. But, consider that at some point investors become cautious of large debt and either don't buy your debt or demand higher & higher interest payments because of your risk.
 
Well in simple terms it works like this:

The government needs more money they print it, hell they own the printing presses! :D :D

If we need more money and print it, the government calls it conterfeiting!!! :mad: :mad:

Yup, the lowest guy on the totem pole is us poor taxpayers.


Paul in NE Ohio
 
This topic seems to come around in circles, just like the bust/boom ecconomic wheel. I beleive that I was involved in a similar discussion with this board, including Evan, over the Fed and its being an arm of the Government. I promised him to get back with a reply, but due to life happening it slipped by the wayside. A very interesting read is a Book titled "The Creature From Jekyll Island" by G. Edward Griffin. The book itself has a lot of footnoted material that if studied and not just taken at face value, explains a lot of the current problems/discussion.

As for the Government having the Treasury crank up the presses to print more money...Well they don't do that any more. We pay the Fed to do it for us, thus if you look at your money you will see that they say "Federal Reserve Note". Money printed by the U.S. Government proper Says "U.S. Note" or the older Silver and Gold Certificates. When was the last time you saw any of these on a regular basis? I have never seen a Gold Certificate outside of a collector auction and the Silver Certificates and US Notes appear with increasing infrequency as they re-enter circulation through theft or inheritance by those who know not what they are, or the owners are old and really hard up. An aquantance of mine long ago, once told me that as the money moves through the system these notes are to be pulled at any Fed distribution bank they come through as this is considered "real money" and a threat to the system since Nixon dropped the Silver standard backing our money. Now I have my doubts on this, but stranger things have happened.

One of the conspiracy theories around the JFK assasination involves the report of an executive order that he penned, ordering the Treasury to print up some US NOTES. LBJ supposedly rescinded this as one of his first act of office. The printing of the official US NOTES would thus threaten the system of the FED control over the money system and had to be stopped. Farfetched, but interesting all the same, with more creadence to it than the one about the Mob.

Some Debt is a nessecary evil, but too much, like too much of a good thing is BAD for everyone.
 








 
Back
Top