What's the future for us machinists this 2009?

By now most of us must have felt the impact of the global financial crisis. I wonder what will be the future for us machinists and for all of us involve in the metal fabrication and manufacturing industry. What forecast do we have into this coming year? Our employment, our jobs and our livelihood...

I'm not so sure that the real impact has been seen yet. I know I'll be busy one way or another.

Poor...........very poor. Most of the machine shops around hear have closed.

You can get some good machinist work on ebay all you have to do is advertise. I am retired but for a while I was getting more work than I wanted. Places like CA and MI have very high labor cost they can send the work to me and save a lot of money.

I think most job shops that perform repair work will survive. Production will go to the cheapest shop that gives "acceptable" quality. I get work from two places now and after Jan 1 I will seek a couple more. I am retired and need extra money otherwise I would just work on pet projects. On the other hand, I don't want to work 40 hrs a week anymore, and 20 or so would be fine. The jobs I seek are not steady so I never know the work load.

I don't think things will change very fast for job shops but major manufacturing is gone to other countries. That is one reason the USA is in trouble, there is fewer large manufacturing companies paying taxes to the USA because they have moved out. When overhead and shipping becomes a high cost they will move back.

Optimistic

For "true" machinists, the future will remain very bright. Few are entering the trade as the average age continues to climb. End result being, a huge demand for those with experience and talent. The labor pool is filthy with fools of limited ability, and poor work history. Our local tech center fails to attract less then a half dozen students out of a hundreds available. Yet, it is the only program insuring placement. For those who have strived to excel at their trade, and maintained excellent references, they will never be without work.

Unsure

For starters I don't actually work as a machinist, but I do work in the automotive industry on the front lines of "Detroit 3" manufacturing. More or less I'm a factory worker.

While on one hand if the company downsizes again I feel reasonably secure in my job over people working on "arts and charts" or "communications", on the other if the entire company tanks then it doesn't matter for anybody.

The recent government loans, while gratefully received, I feel are a temporary band-aid at best.

To be honest I begin this year expecting a pay cut before 1 year's time elapses. I think personally the path "back" is going to be on a track close to what was derailed in the Senate, basically involving concessions from creditors, dealers, hourly and salaried workers.

Everything changes. We're not at the bottom yet. When things start climbing back up, no way to really predict what sort of work will be there. The current mix will change. Next decade, there will be a lot more work on alternative energy, infrastructure repair and less on military. Some of that isn't practical to do offshore. Production may decline domestically but there will be a need for a lot of creative one-off solutions. Machine operators may not be in demand but I think machinists will be.

gearmac said:

I wonder what will be the future...

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My crystal ball is in the shop again. All I have is the magic 8-ball and it says...."ask later"

Future for Machinists

My opinion is bleak for anyone in the machine tool trades from owner to employee with some exceptions. When times are good & with the proper contacts, people tend to do well. When things slow up & people bid low just to keep going, owners & employees suffer w/ shop closings, layoffs etc. Expenses, rent, overhead etc can kill a shop. Today, foreign competition can kill shops. A friend of mine who owns a used machy business showed me a large gear he needed built. He was quoted $1750. in Phila. He eventually got it made in Mexico for $500. & the quality was excellent. You must remember that laws are different in Mexico, India etc than ours. In U.S., my friend is afraid to sell a used punch press due to liability concerns even years from now w/ the same mach. Other countries don't suffer under these laws & consequently can work cheaper w/ much lower overhead, less insurance to pay etc. Outlook for machinists is not good if the present pattern continues.

10 Fingers described it very well.
There will always be a need for 'Good' Machinists, and the age of such machinists is getting older.
There aren't many young bucks joining the ranks.
The youngest guy in our shop, is 26.

Your future will be as hard as you make it.

I just do machining for fun. And it is, I love it, at 54, doing this, I learn every day. I really work in a mine, gold to be specific, not base metals. And lately, I thank God every day.
Mike

If you can believe some of the forums out there, we are soon due for a total economic collapse leading to a Mad Max scenario. "The Coming Dark Age" etc. If that happens, the .gov will go away and take all the silly laws with them. At that time, it will be Machinists who will have the skills to rebuild civilization.

WA Toolman said:

If you can believe some of the forums out there, we are soon due for a total economic collapse leading to a Mad Max scenario. "The Coming Dark Age" etc. If that happens, the .gov will go away and take all the silly laws with them. At that time, it will be Machinists who will have the skills to rebuild civilization.

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Aye , but we'll have to survive first by building Lord Humungous' modified vehicles and weapons, and possibly an oil refinery as well

Perhaps after the collapse, perhaps they'll deal with thing by building 3 enomous space arks to move us all to another planet, the scientists and leaders and such go in the 'A' ark, the machinists useful people and such go in the 'C' ark, and the advertising execs, fund managers, lawyers and such go in the 'B' ark... and we'll send them off first

Right more seriously (once I've stopped pilfering various sci-fi films )
The downturn will affect the machining trade, however if Mrs Smith needs a hip transplant, she'll still need the bits made, the hospitals will still need the other equipment made, the same with the oil supply, just because there's been a 2% drop in oil demand does'nt mean the oil business wont need another blowout preventor built.
Aircraft will still need bits, the military will still need bits, if Obama orders a infrastructure building program, then supplying construction vehicles will be needed, in fact if your business is in a position to ride out any recession, then in 4 years time you'll be doing ok again.

I cant see the low end chinese work surviving the recession though because of 2 factors, the shipping cost and because its so reliant on consumer demand.

In ending, yes its all doom and gloom at the moment, but treat it as an oppertunity.

Boris

"I'll be back"

Took enough work on over christmas to keep us going for 2 years

It's not all bleak!

I think the short term outlook is bleak and the long term looks good. I believe that if you are able to survive, the opportunities ahead look great, it's just a matter of surviving now.

I think one of the things that makes the short term outlook so bleak is the fact that so many places are hurting out there that many have stopped paying their bills, forcing many shops that have been able to find work into the poor house for lack of being paid. It becomes quite the domino effect. Having work isn't really a guarantee of surviving. Having work with customers that are financially sound is. I've managed to stay fairly busy during these past few months, but I have been hit with a lot of bad debt as well and that is a bitter pill to swallow.

10 fingers said:

For "true" machinists, the future will remain very bright. Few are entering the trade as the average age continues to climb. End result being, a huge demand for those with experience and talent. The labor pool is filthy with fools of limited ability, and poor work history. Our local tech center fails to attract less then a half dozen students out of a hundreds available. Yet, it is the only program insuring placement. For those who have strived to excel at their trade, and maintained excellent references, they will never be without work.

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I have to agree with this. At this point, my shop is able to pick and choose, regardless of the current economy. If we don't like what we see, we quote high. If we get the work, we are glad to do it at the quoted price. If we don't, we move on to the next stack of drawings to quote, and go from there. We were a bit slow in October and November, but busy this month. Our current customer base likes our work, our delivery time frame, and our tendency to communicate well if things are not going as expeted.

I think that local manufacturing has certain needs that can be filled by the right shops with the right individuals. There's not a whole lot that can possibly happen to the economy that will upset the need for certain types of machine work. Some examples are the food industry, medical, homeland security, and currently anything to do with firearms.

David Carlisi said:

I have to agree with this. At this point, my shop is able to pick and choose, regardless of the current economy. If we don't like what we see, we quote high. If we get the work, we are glad to do it at the quoted price. If we don't, we move on to the next stack of drawings to quote, and go from there.

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I can say that things aren't that easy where I'm at, so it must have a lot to do with your location. I'm having a very hard time finding any work to quote at all right now, let alone stacks of prints. We've picked up enough work from one customer to stay afloat. All of my other customers are out of work and don't expect any soon.