OT: Whatever happened to "It's the economy stupid?"

The old wisdom was that every election turned on the economy. So, this year in the US unemployment is finally down, growth is back around 3.5%, gas prices low, stocks are doing pretty well, and housing prices seem be be back up at least around here. The annual debt is shrinking. Health care hasn't imploded, despite predictions. Despite the improved economy, even illegal immigration even seems down from historical levels.

There's still lots of work to be done on many fronts, but most of the indicators are pretty robust. Yet all the political discussion this election seems to be about Ebola, repealing Obamacare, finding an enemy to be tougher against, etc.

Are the old rules of politics no longer a factor??

This cycle the Dems hoped that a focus on "The war on women" that they made up would be the best way to fool people into voting for them.

Too bad for them this time. Too easy to see the lies.

Ignoring the guy with 23 posts....

Both parties are trying to gain power. And they will say or do whatever it takes to win. Republicans dont want to say the economy is getting better because they dont want obama to look good. Dems dont want to say it because they dont want republicans to try to claim it was really them who did it. So they fall back on the old reliable nonsense.

After all, why would they try to stand up and lead, govern, or do the damn job they are elected to do? They can blame eachother while enriching themselves (and those that buy them off) at our expense. Even if we vote an individual out those who bought them keep whatever gains they made and the person voted out gets a fat pension.

To bad we can't vote to have a real time live pay schedule for these bums , we could track them , and vote to take pay away or add pay as performance was observed.

Mebfab said:

Ignoring the guy with 23 posts....

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Curious of why ignore the guy with 24 posts. Especially since he had a more eloquent and concise answer.

"the rules" are somewhat more complicated than "it's the economy stupid" - though that certainly is "one of the rules"

Turns out that the party of a President usually has a hard time in mid-term elections, and generally has a very very hard time in the mid-term elections of the 2nd term.

So by that bit of history, life is difficult for the democratic party.

Also, "the rule" isn't "the economy as measured by GDP" - it's much more about how a mass of voters feel about employment, employment stability, and so forth.

There's a long history of voters (irrationally) punishing politicians for things that occured "on their watch" over which they have zero control. So politicians have been "punished" (and sometimes lost) over such things as shark attacks. Ebola is probably a bad thing for every incumbent and a very bad thing for the President's party incumbents, even though, quite obviously, no-one in American government has substantive influence over outbreaks of plagues in Africa. In politics that does not matter.

Finally, it's worth noting that structural issues sometimes favor one side or the other. In particular, there are more incumbent democratic senators running for reelection this time around, which means there's more risk for the democratic party. (Indeed, it's mathematically possible to have a circumstance where all of the senators up for election are from a single party - in that case that party cannot gain any seats, but could lose a 3rd of the senate. That's just the mathematics of it.)

By the way, swings of control back and forth between parties, the white house swapping parties at least every 8 years, and things that generally look like gridlock, are the *norm* in American politics.

And I've come to think that they're the best that can be done - a system without such swings, and without gridlock, would end up being authoritarian (at least with the structure of US government) So just as freedom requires the messiness of democracy, long term democratic stability probably requires party swings and "gridlock".

It's Ebola stupid!

Its simple, we're in another bubble and neither side wants to admit it.

JMO but I'd tend to disagree with your assertion that the economy has improved. The "improvements" are like many government "solutions" - temporary, short-sighted, and paid for with a pile of taxpayer cash and credit that we cant afford. The govt's given pretty massive incentives to fuel the oil and gas industry's ridiculous growth here stateside the past few years so naturally, gas prices are down and consequently stocks are up, wait a few more years and I'm sure this will bite us in the backside pretty heavily. As to my personal favorite - healthcare, well....this administration successfully destroyed the best healthcare system in the world (the VA) and also cost many of us a significant chunk of our private health insurance coverage. The ladies at work love to bitch about it, apparently paying for contraception and other womanly health needs is fairly cheap compared to their husbands and kids losing ~25% of their health/vision/dental coverage.

CWB said:

Its simple, we're in another bubble and neither side wants to admit it. . . . As to my personal favorite - healthcare, well....this administration successfully destroyed the best healthcare system in the world (the VA) . . .

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You may be right about a bubble. And Bryan-M made many even more salient points.

But thinking the current administration has single handedly managed to mess up the VA would be a partisan delusion. We've spent decades giving lip service to Veterans; from the Vietnam War on. Under Bush we sent millions into harms way, low balled the worse-than-ever injuries, and started the current mess. At the time, the Walter Reed scandal was the tip of the iceberg. Under Obama, Veterans were given the usual lip service, but the VA failed to perform (and lied) as wait times escalated. Here's one even-handed review: Who Really Broke Veterans Affairs? - NationalJournal.com

FWIW, I know many Veterans who are still grateful and satisfied with the care they get. Many are still working hard to provide care at the VA. But it's clear that we can't add a million maimed ( http://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccaruiz/2013/11/04/report-a-million-veterans-injured-in-iraq-afghanistan-wars/ ) and not expect to back that lip service with serious funding and attention.

Unemployment down??? Only because the gov.does not count those not looking for work anymore. The real unemployment rate is thought to be 18% or so. The labor participation rate is at a new low point. Has your unemployment run out?....... The number of people on long term disability Is at the highest level ever, It's the new unemployment ins. Food stamp usage is over twice what it was pre O. Stock market is high, yep, because fed money policy forces interest rates down to 1% or so, investors flock to stocks as it is the only place to make money right now. The resulting feeding frenzy drives stocks higher and higher. Inflation number are a joke, food and fuel prices are not included. Been to the grocery store lately? Bought any beef, milk, peanut butter, no inflation? Yeah right. Sure gas is down right now, a world wide glut of oil is the reason for that. The reason you don't hear the truth about it all is the media that got him elected does not give the truth any air time. Its the economy stupid only gets air play when it fits the left wing agenda of the main stream media.

PeteM said:

this year in the US unemployment is finally down,

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While the participation rates are down to levels not seen since before women entered the workplace.

growth is back around 3.5%, gas prices low,

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GDP is up to 3.5% 3Q2014 on the back of a falling deflator -0.9% Q2-Q3, mostly due to falling oil prices. Oil prices themselves are suffering from soft demand, and it remains to be seen if hydralic fracturing is profitable at $80bbl.

stocks are doing pretty well, and housing prices seem be be back up at least around here. The annual debt is shrinking.

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Because of the effect negative real interest rates have on pricing risk.

Health care hasn't imploded, despite predictions.

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Healthcare is bouyed on a mountain of real assets, and essential services are resiliant to price effects.

Despite the improved economy, even illegal immigration even seems down from historical levels.

There's still lots of work to be done on many fronts, but most of the indicators are pretty robust.

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The economy is pushing on a string.

Yet all the political discussion this election seems to be about Ebola, repealing Obamacare, finding an enemy to be tougher against, etc.

Are the old rules of politics no longer a factor??

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The reason the economy isn't featured this election cycle is fear of the Toto factor.



.

As heard on rush limbaugh. Must be true then. LOL

Cadillac STS said:

This cycle the Dems hoped that a focus on "The war on women" that they made up would be the best way to fool people into voting for them.

Too bad for them this time. Too easy to see the lies.

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"Health care hasn't imploded, despite predictions."
That happens once the REST of it kicks in.... Just after the elections.
Remember we had to pass it before we knew what was in it, and now we have to keep waiting to see whats going to happen.

Remember we had to pass it before we knew what was in it,

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That's the definition of a stool sample........^^^^^

Big B said:

As heard on rush limbaugh. Must be true then. LOL

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rush limbaugh simply reads off Drudgereport.com articles the whole show. And this is there of course.

On this particular issue it is very true, check it out with other sources or think with common sense if you have been paying attention to what they are doing with this election. It is self evident.


What makes me even more angry than manipulating the people is so many things they openly "Put off until after the election." If it were good news for them they would present it now. So things are being hidden and the people won't be pleased when these things come to light. True news people would investigate and find out what the news really is.

My monthly health care bill now exceeds my mortgage payment, my income has been stagnant or declined over the last 15 years and inflation, though low, hasn't been negative. The economy is great if you're part of the 1%. Examined in detail, everything the GOP says and backs is just plain stupid. If it makes all you conservative Republican fools feel any better, everything the Dems say and do is every bit as bad. I'd like to think my vote mattered, but the country has been bought and paid for by the titans of big business.

Conrad Hoffman said:

My monthly health care bill now exceeds my mortgage payment,

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And how is this? How much do hospital executives make? How many hospitals have remodeled and expanded? How many are buying competitors? They are non profit. Do they pay taxes? They are robbing us blind.

As for employer provided health insurance coverage. I was talking to a worker from a large company the other day. He was bashing obamacare and how it made his premiums skyrocket. And then mentioned how the stock price and executive pay increased at his company........ It was hard to break the news to him. But where did he think the money for that came from? THe company used obamacare as an excuse to shaft the worker on premiums. Then they took the savings and gave it to execs and stockholders. And he never realized it.

Dem's or Rep's. Both cheeks on the same ass. Their primary purpose is to see the other Party fail. My opinion, I'd like to see US require a few more Parties in the runoffs to represent the billions in the US, go to popular vote, and consecutive term limits for all in office, all decisions based on good of the people and not corporations etc.

Yeah, will never happen...

moonlight machine said:

Unemployment down??? Only because the gov.does not count those not looking for work anymore. The real unemployment rate is thought to be 18% or so. The labor participation rate is at a new low point. Has your unemployment run out?....... The number of people on long term disability Is at the highest level ever, It's the new unemployment ins. Food stamp usage is over twice what it was pre O. Stock market is high, yep, because fed money policy forces interest rates down to 1% or so, investors flock to stocks as it is the only place to make money right now. The resulting feeding frenzy drives stocks higher and higher. Inflation number are a joke, food and fuel prices are not included. Been to the grocery store lately? Bought any beef, milk, peanut butter, no inflation? Yeah right. Sure gas is down right now, a world wide glut of oil is the reason for that. The reason you don't hear the truth about it all is the media that got him elected does not give the truth any air time. Its the economy stupid only gets air play when it fits the left wing agenda of the main stream media.

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Ummm look at the U6 numbers which DO include those that have quit AND the under employed.
The number is more or less the same as it has been since manufacturing started leaving the nation.
AND it's falling.
Sooo...care to try that again?


Stop looking at Fox headlines.

moonlight machine said:

Unemployment down??? .....

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Not in your area?
When the local machine shop starts buying radio ad time for machinists, programmers, and others to make indexable tooling ......
I've never seen such a thing in 40 years.

Most certainly southeast Michigan got hit hard, maybe the first to flip?
Once again guys are leaving long term jobs for better offers down the road a bit.
Something must be changing.

Healthcare is a whole nother topic. Thanks to science and innovations we can fix more than we can afford to pay for.
The current round is only the entry to this problem.
For many it is a "new" problem because we buried our heads in the sand for so long.
Bob