eBikes, Cell phones, and Injection Molding...
In China, were there is some much growth, the really big story is in the GROWTH of electric bicycles. DC motors in the front or rear wheel, smart control electronics, and really good batteries... Lead Acid in that application have a use life of 200 charges typically... a LiFePO4 battery is said to have average life of 2000 charges...
the changes are driven by Cell Phones, Notebook Power Packs, and spinoff battery development from electric cars...
If you look at a prototypical car company, they are good at incremental development. Whether US or anywhere.
Since you REALLY want a disruptive types solution - then you must certainly look elsewhere for innovation...
Getting an Electric car for less than $30K is not a problem... getting it from a traditional supplier will be....
I don't see the limiting factor being the cost - it is more in who you are expecting to deliver the product - and standards that will be applied...
An eBike now is fairly inexpensive in China. If I want one here, I would expect to pay about $140 for the motor/electronics. The Battery - well it can be a variety of sources... I would want 10-20 AHr of 36V power... 5 would do in a pinch... So that can cost quite a bit in China as well...
I am sure that someone else can provide better numbers on cost. Shipping is still a real problem for just buying a single eBike's worth of electronics...
When you look at an electric car from this angle... It is NOT SO COMPLICATED... and has more to do with incremental Cell Phone Technology applied to automotives...
So I can see a short range vehicle - with basic batteries - coming in at 6-10K. If you want to charge more, then that is for all the "other" car cost junk....
Of a $30K car, how much is actually the car? and how much is the rest of the infrastructure sales network? That is another issue...
--jerry
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