1950's - 1960's USA led mfg boom again????

jockofthelowveld · Jun 20, 2013

Interesting article that we who saw the fifties and sixties made in USA mfg boom may see it again.

Regards;
Steve

Comeback: Why the US Sits at the Brink of a New Boom | The Business Desk with Paul Solman | PBS NewsHour | PBS

Paul Mc · Jun 24, 2013

Thanks for the link! Keep seeing more and more of these articles. Leaves me feeling hopeful and fairly optimistic.

PeteM · Jun 24, 2013

Two notes of caution in that story. One is that we can screw it up by permitting unrestricted exports of our natural gas. Note how countries like China aided their industry by limiting exports of rare earth materials. So one question is -- how much of the energy bonanza now buried under U.S. soil will WE take advantage of? The other caution is that we need to exploit this energy in a reasonably clean way.

cncFireman · Jun 27, 2013

the company I work for is busier than they have ever been and we ship worldwide. 3-4 years ago I was complaining about the little hours and little pay. Now all I complain about is all i do is work work work

tailstock · Jun 27, 2013

I would be leery of putting too much stock in another manufacturing boom, pretty sure the trade unions and government idiotcrats will find a way to screw it up or just plain miss the boat all together. :codger:

pgmrmike · Jun 27, 2013

Great article, thanks. I sure hope he is right!

Ries · Jun 27, 2013

tailstock said:
I would be leery of putting too much stock in another manufacturing boom, pretty sure the trade unions and government idiotcrats will find a way to screw it up or just plain miss the boat all together.

Trade Unions?
Union membership is at its lowest in the USA since 1918 or so. If you back out the government unions, its more like 1880.

I am not convinced by this article- it documents some real stuff, like the new factories being built by Dow Chemical, but its mostly a puff piece for that guy Morris, who is just pulling predictions out of his hat. Plus it mixes up exporting raw materials, as in the natural gas mentioned above, with actual manufacturing. Selling coal or gas is NOT manufacturing.

But it is true that there are a lot of new factories being built in the USA, (although almost all of them are non-union). The Dow factory, the new $5 Billion Thyssen Krupp steel mill in Alabama, new Boeing factories in South Carolina, new Kenworth/Peterbilt truck engine plant in Mississippi, and many more.

We actually manufacture a LOT- we are number 2 or 3 in the world, depending on how you count- and export billions of dollars of big manufactured items.

The problem I see is people expecting these huge manufacturers to hire lots and lots of people- they just dont, anymore- these plants are very automated, and hire very few employees.
My dad worked in the Gary USS mill in the late 40's, summer job- and there were 40,000 employees there. The new Thyssen Krupp mill in Alabama makes probably half as much steel by tonnage as Gary did, and employs 1500.

Mason Palmer · Jun 27, 2013

Seems hopeful. I wouldn't be worried about Union membership as Ries mentioned above. My take on the coal and gas angle was that while that may not be manufacturing, the support of those endeavors is going to entail a lot of manufacturing. Now, if that is true, then it's a matter of whether or not that is happening on our shores.

Ries · Jun 28, 2013

Well, at least we get the manufacturing jobs in oil spill cleanup.
Not kidding- when the BP Horizon spill hit, maybe 20 boatyards in my area, all within fifty miles, got huge high profit rush jobs making various oil recovery boats. Millions in dollars injected into my local manufacturing economy.
And Rozema, five miles down the road from me, has been building oil spill response boats for Alaska and the Gulf states (the Arabian Gulf, not the Gulf of Mexico) for years- these boats are big, fancy, and expensive, several million each.
America actually leads the world in oil spill cleanup technology, and those are manufacturing jobs.

Since TransCanada has been averaging one spill a month on the existing US sections of Keystone, we can look forward to more jobs and more prosperity.

Ocean · Jun 28, 2013

It will be great fun to watch how US (or any other country on the planet, for that matter) will manage the gaping void which has been opening for the past 30 years between industry output and employment capability of said industry. With automation running rampant and the relentless reduction in workforce, I just want to see how distant the point of non return is. I just can NOT stand "automation gurus" who blindfoldedly believe that automating the fuck out of everything represent the path towards a bright future.
Not to mention the appallingly untenable argument of those who say "But Hey! Robots need people to be built, run and for maintenance, too!". If the balance really worked that way (robots actually employing more people than they displace) no sane CEO would ever considering automating anything.

SND · Jun 28, 2013

I don't know where the consumers are, cause I sure ain't spending anything more than I really have to...

Cornilsn · Jun 28, 2013

Ocean said:
It will be great fun to watch how US (or any other country on the planet, for that matter) will manage the gaping void which has been opening for the past 30 years between industry output and employment capability of said industry. With automation running rampant and the relentless reduction in workforce, I just want to see how distant the point of non return is. I just can NOT stand "automation gurus" who blindfoldedly believe that automating the fuck out of everything represent the path towards a bright future.
Not to mention the appallingly untenable argument of those who say "But Hey! Robots need people to be built, run and for maintenance, too!". If the balance really worked that way (robots actually employing more people than they displace) no sane CEO would ever considering automating anything.

It's a good thing short sighted people like you don't make important decisions. If I can get a humans mitts off of my process, I reduce costs and variation, and have a far more capable process. I automate processes even when the net result is terminating a unskilled labor position and replacing it with a more expensive trained/skilled technician. Attitudes like yours are obsolete and are such being purged from any organization worth its salt.

Ries · Jun 28, 2013

All the Canadian consumers are down here at Costco. Our local Costco is about an half hour drive south of the border, and the parking lot is about 3/4 Canadian plates on any given day, and they use those big orange flatbed carts to load those 52" screen tv's into their Mercedes SUV's.
Maybe its a BC thing, but Canadians around here are gigantic consumers. Every big box store, outlet mall, trader joes, Costco, and department store within 2 hours of the border is swarming with Canadians with open wallets.

Gordon B. Clarke · Jun 28, 2013

Ocean said:
It will be great fun to watch how US (or any other country on the planet, for that matter) will manage the gaping void which has been opening for the past 30 years between industry output and employment capability of said industry. With automation running rampant and the relentless reduction in workforce, I just want to see how distant the point of non return is. I just can NOT stand "automation gurus" who blindfoldedly believe that automating the fuck out of everything represent the path towards a bright future.
Not to mention the appallingly untenable argument of those who say "But Hey! Robots need people to be built, run and for maintenance, too!". If the balance really worked that way (robots actually employing more people than they displace) no sane CEO would ever considering automating anything.

I suggest you take a look around your house and think about how many gadgets and appliances you have to make life easier. There are also for example many automobiles where much of the bodywork is handcrafted but I'll bet they are all out of your financial reach.

There's a series of TV programmes called "How it's made". I suggest you look it up on YouTube and I bet you'll be impressed

Gordon

SND · Jun 28, 2013

Ries said:
All the Canadian consumers are down here at Costco. Our local Costco is about an half hour drive south of the border, and the parking lot is about 3/4 Canadian plates on any given day, and they use those big orange flatbed carts to load those 52" screen tv's into their Mercedes SUV's.
Maybe its a BC thing, but Canadians around here are gigantic consumers. Every big box store, outlet mall, trader joes, Costco, and department store within 2 hours of the border is swarming with Canadians with open wallets.

Yeah, that's in big part because we get super extra screwed up here for the same darn stuff. There are lots of costco's and walmarts on the Canadian side as well, actually just about all retail chains in Canada are american, they love to come up here because of the extra margins they can make compared to the US, and yet still undercut the few canadian chains. Even the cars Made in Canada, sold in the US, can be half the price in the US. So all those close to the border go to the US and make it worth the trip, thank you credit cards.

Ries · Jun 28, 2013

I understand the Canadians are down here because its cheaper- but that doesnt change the fact that they spend hundreds of millions a year down here on crappy consumer goods, high priced wine, and pretty much anything else they can fit in the Range Rover.
They have a lot of money, and they are spending it on consumer goods.
I go to Vancouver a few times a year, and every parking place is full of Mercedes and BMW's and Audis, every $100 a plate restaurant is full, and fur coats and $1000 leather jackets are not rare- they are on every other person walking down upper Granville.
And houses up there generally start at a million bucks, and quickly go up in million dollar increments- and sell in a week.

Now, granted, a lot of that money is Chinese millionaires parking their bucks in a nice safe country, with the added bonus of citizenship and kids in Canadian colleges- but not all of it, by far.
Canadians are gigantic consumers.

pgmrmike · Jun 28, 2013

Mason Palmer said:
Seems hopeful. I wouldn't be worried about Union membership as Ries mentioned above. My take on the coal and gas angle was that while that may not be manufacturing, the support of those endeavors is going to entail a lot of manufacturing. Now, if that is true, then it's a matter of whether or not that is happening on our shores.

Absolutely. I don't know how widespread it will be, but here at home ( North of Houston Texas ) there is a huge number of machined parts made specifically for drilling, exploration and production of fossil fuels. ( not to mention everything else )

Ocean · Jun 28, 2013

Cornilsn said:
It's a good thing short sighted people like you don't make important decisions. If I can get a humans mitts off of my process, I reduce costs and variation, and have a far more capable process. I automate processes even when the net result is terminating a unskilled labor position and replacing it with a more expensive trained/skilled technician. Attitudes like yours are obsolete and are such being purged from any organization worth its salt.

It's a great thing much shorter sighted people like you do indeed take all the relevant decisions, and the net result (unemployment being the next huge problem we'll have to face) can be witnessed by everybody. I won't get into a pissing context about what classifies as unskilled labour, or why automation should be kept under control. Do some reading, then come back here.

Cornilsn · Jul 1, 2013

Ocean said:
It's a great thing much shorter sighted people like you do indeed take all the relevant decisions, and the net result (unemployment being the next huge problem we'll have to face) can be witnessed by everybody. I won't get into a pissing context about what classifies as unskilled labour, or why automation should be kept under control. Do some reading, then come back here.

The same thing has been said for at least the last 100 years. They were wrong. So are you. I've done plenty of reading on the subject, those opposed to technologies are those who think stagnation is OK. I have yet to hear an aurgument that has convinced me the short term pain of technological unemployment is worse than the long term progression of society. And like I said, automation makes sense ALOT of the times even if I have to replace the less expensive 'unskilled' laborer with a more expensive technician. (IE, an increase in labor costs...) Humans are moody, need breaks, get distracted, are inconsistant...basically I need to protect my process from them wherever I can.

But, fine. lets hold back the progression of humanity so a few people can hang onto a job :rolleyes5:

By the way, look up something called the "luddite fallacy."

metlmunchr · Jul 1, 2013

Then if we really want to accelerate the progression of humanity, should we allow unlimited H1-B visas so we could use $10/hr engineers to automate everything in sight???

1950's - 1960's USA led mfg boom again????

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