Can manufacturing be reborn in the USA?

N2IXK said:

Can Manufacturing Be Reborn in the U.S.A.? | Portside

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False premise. Manufacturing in this country never died. We just need less people to make more stuff these days. Manufacturing employment is not a valid measure of manufacturing output. Period. Though it is great that some jobs have come back here.

Cornilsn said:

False premise. Manufacturing in this country never died. We just need less people to make more stuff these days. Manufacturing employment is not a valid measure of manufacturing output. Period. Though it is great that some jobs have come back here.

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While its true we need less people to make any particular item, its also true that we need no Americans to produce anything that we're importing from China or elsewhere.

Its hard to say this without sounding judgemental or condescending, but it seems to me what we really need is more manufacturing jobs for people who aren't particularly intelligent. A high percentage of the manufacturing jobs offshored over the last 20 or so years are those lower skill jobs that we need today. This becomes obvious when you look at a breakdown of unemployment numbers rather than the overall percentages. The lower the level of education, the higher the unemployment for that segment of the population.

The common "wisdom" says just get more education. This is far too simplistic, and fails to address the employment needs of any country because the innate intelligence of the population as a whole follows a standard distribution. A person might be the best employee you can ever find in a furniture plant or garment factory, or whatever job, but that doesn't mean you just stick that person in school for a while and they emerge able to program a machining center.

In my own area I hear a constant chant about how we need to recruit more high tech industry. I can say with some certainty, having lived here most of my life, that we've got as large a percentage of people who aren't rocket scientists as any area in the country. But these people need jobs, whether that job is sewing clothes or assembling furniture or tending spinning frames or any of a number of jobs that once existed in this area but now are gone.

Personally, I find it strange that the Japanese, Germans, Brits, Koreans, and even the Chinese can manufacture profitably in the US, but a large number of US based companies seem to have to rely on 3rd world labor to manufacture profitably. If our big corp CEO's were really worth as much as they're paid, it seems as though they'd at least be smart enough to manufacture profitably using the same Americans that the foreign companies employ, particularly considering the fact that most of these foreign companies are headed by people whose salary is a mere fraction of that of their US counterparts. It makes me think there's a lot of them who'd be out of a job in no time if their crutch of slave wage labor suddenly disappeared and they had to prove they were smart enough to operate profitably while going head to head against other companies who seem get by without a Chinese manufacturing division.

metlmunchr said:

Its hard to say this without sounding judgemental or condescending, but it seems to me what we really need is more manufacturing jobs for people who aren't particularly intelligent.

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I've been screaming this for years under my breath. The push during the 80's that All Shall Go To College was insane. I don't believe that everyone is equipped to get a degree. And if I'm wrong, where are all these degrees going to work? Now we pay the price for a devaluation of the skilled jobs.

My grandmother remarried to a guy who had a skilled construction job. He was able to raise a family, buy a house, pay his taxes... and could not read. Yes, he was illiterate and still was a productive member of society. Perhaps better than many.

I believe that we are in danger of having a growing portion perhaps 47% of the population that is becoming disenfranchised from the productive side of our economy because of the lack of avenues for these people to participate in a truly equitable way.

Best Regards,
Bob

metlmunchr said:

A high percentage of the manufacturing jobs offshored over the last 20 or so years are those lower skill jobs that we need today. This becomes obvious when you look at a breakdown of unemployment numbers rather than the overall percentages. The lower the level of education, the higher the unemployment for that segment of the population.

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Much better put than anything I could ever have written.
Too bad a great many people don't see it that way, some of whom are even PM members.

The interesting thing is that the way I see it, low wage jobs that require little or no skillsets are in fact the foundation of a society and a healthy economy upon which folks with higher education can build.

The difference between "them and us" (regardless of who they and we are) is diminishing year after year. BC it was China, Egypt, Rome, Greece etc. that were the advanced civilizations then came the industrial revolution and much of Europe benefited. The USA were "the Ones to Watch and Follow" for almost a century.

Darwin wasn't far off the mark with "You evolve or perish". The USA is a long way from sagging behind but just aren't as far in front now as they were.

Corny but true WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH THE TOUGH GET GOING.

Gordon

Gordon B. Clarke said:

The difference between "them and us" (regardless of who they and we are) is diminishing year after year. BC it was China, Egypt, Rome, Greece etc. that were the advanced civilizations then came the industrial revolution and much of Europe benefited. The USA were "the Ones to Watch and Follow" for almost a century.

Darwin wasn't far off the mark with "You evolve or perish". The USA is a long way from sagging behind but just aren't as far in front now as they were.

Corny but true WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH THE TOUGH GET GOING.

Gordon

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Gordon, since you went to school in Scotland, where they dont even speak english, and don't teach the classics, we will forgive you-
But the real quote is-

"When the Going Gets Weird, the Weird Turn Pro"

- Hunter Thompson, "Fear and Loathing at the Super Bowl" (Rolling Stone #155, (28 February 1974)

Anyway, I couldnt agree more with Metalmuncher- we NEED trade schools, and we NEED jobs that are "ordinary"- the average IQ is 100. That means, half above, half below.
The problem is, that pure unadulterated capitalism doesnt provide things like this- the countries that make this work have more government than we do.

Great points all.

I was on a flight last December and came across a magazine article that was intriguing. I don't know whether its a bunch of fluff but it basically broke it down that all the off-shoring of manufacturing jobs was something similar to a bandwagon kind of jump, though cost-effective for a time. But now companies are realizing that it just isn't as cost effective to manufacture overseas especially with rising fuel costs and the risks of innovative products being knock off by overseas competitors (among other reasons as well...I'm doing my best to give a quick paraphrase...).

Took me a bit of digging around but I found the article here: The Insourcing Boom - Charles Fishman - The Atlantic. They use GE as the example company.

If it is true, that is great for America and for so many out there, no matter how intelligent, in desperate need of decent paying work.

Ries said:

Anyway, I couldnt agree more with Metalmuncher- we NEED trade schools, and we NEED jobs that are "ordinary"- the average IQ is 100. That means, half above, half below.

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Ries ( and this time I'm not picking a bone with you )

We do need trade schools, but Munchr's post ( for me anyway ) referred to jobs that require NO SCHOOLS at all.
Jobs where the two most important prerequisites are having a pulse and the ability to transport yourself to and from work without getting lost.
Think of the industrial equivalent of a Walmart Greeter.

Local GE plant tried several times to jump ship to mexico. They finally decided to stay and even put up a brand new sign! Then rehired the workers and even allowed them to take a 1/3 paycut.

SeymourDumore said:

Ries ( and this time I'm not picking a bone with you )

We do need trade schools, but Munchr's post ( for me anyway ) referred to jobs that require NO SCHOOLS at all.
Jobs where the two most important prerequisites are having a pulse and the ability to transport yourself to and from work without getting lost.
Think of the industrial equivalent of a Walmart Greeter.

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I agree with you- we also need jobs that require very little school (reading and writing are kind of required these days, whereas they werent 100 years ago)
You cant quite get away with as little "learning" as you used to though- where I live, for instance, people like that have always driven tractor- but today, a tractor might be worth a quarter of a million dollars, towing fifty grand worth of hydraulic self leveling disc- and so you expect a slightly higher level of awareness and responsibility than when it was a $500 Fordson. I lease a field to a big time farmer- his guy was out there yesterday discing with a John Deere a lot like this one- John Deere 9560R Tractor - Price, Specs, Features
$373,000 plus trimmings...

The thing is, we have lots of stuff like this that needs doing- bridges, roads, dams and so on all need repair and replacement, and there is a whole lotta demolition that could be done in places like Detroit.

Lots of litter out there, too.

Problem is, who pays.

SeymourDumore said:

Ries ( and this time I'm not picking a bone with you )

We do need trade schools, but Munchr's post ( for me anyway ) referred to jobs that require NO SCHOOLS at all.
Jobs where the two most important prerequisites are having a pulse and the ability to transport yourself to and from work without getting lost.
Think of the industrial equivalent of a Walmart Greeter.

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I take exception to that... his example was his grandad, who worked construction. These are skilled trades, but the skills are manual rather than mental. Some of it's muscle, but a lot of it is experience and physical skill. I worked as a carpenter years ago... no, we weren't expected to know trig, to figure elevations from angles. But we were expected to be able to set up a builders level (like a transit but without the angular elevation scale) shoot a station point, and do the arithmetic to set grades a given distance above or below. There was no reason to have the high priced college boy out there to set the grade for the tops of columns, walls, etc.

As to low paid labor handling high priced equipment, injection molds have never been cheap, often running hundreds of thousands of dollars, yet when I worked in a molding shop when I was in high school, the guys who set these molds made $1.50 per hour.

Dennis

We have a fundamental problem.

If we (as a society) do not "find" jobs for the unskilled and uneducated, what are they going to do? Starve? Steal to eat? Welfare? Turn Communist?

They are not going to simply disappear.

Yeah, but its a lot easier for a $1.50 an hour employee to put a quarter million tractor in the ditch than it is to topple a 30 ton injection molding machine that is bolted to the floor. Objects in motion tend to stay in motion...

Anyway, as I have two kids who recently graduated high school, I met a bunch of their friends. A few went to 4 year college, a bunch more went to 2 year community colleges. And then, there were a bunch who are unemployed.
Nationally, the unemployment rate for 18 to 24 year olds is about 20%. Higher if you are a vet.

If you dont have a college degree or skills, and you are 20 or 22, the available jobs are mostly fast food and retail.

In the old days, where I lived, those kids were loggers, fishermen, farmers, or they worked in sawmills and canneries and dairies and food processing plants. In most of those fields, there are, at best, 10% of the jobs now that there were in 1970. And the competition to get those jobs is much more. Used to be you could be a bit of a problem child, and still get a job logging or fishing- misdemeanors, traffic offenses, stuff like that. Now, its impossible, for most of em, to even get interviewed if you have any record at all. 19 year olds who dropped out of high school could make fifteen bucks an hour when I was in high school. Now, everything costs ten times as much, and you are lucky to make ten.

We are hatching a whole generation of kids who may never have a decent job- after five or ten years of 3 month stints at Jack in the Box, nobody is hiring you for a real, twenty dollar an hour position.

You're more than welcome to take exception to what I've said.
The construction industry surely requires skilled trades and tradesman, but virtually all of those trades require unskilled labor force. Having muscle doesn't necessarily qualify as a skill. Willingness to bust your ass
in rain, ice, 100+ degree weather does. So I guess I'd partially agree.
Nonetheless, Munchr's example was more to the point of not needing any "official" trade school to earn an honest living. While the construction industry is rather difficult to outsource ( tough SanFran did exactly that )
a great deal of other trades have been outsourced, and just like the construction industry, they too use a fair amount of unskilled labor. Labor, that likely earns more than a Walmart Greeter.

As a side effect, while you may not needed it, but you've learned to use a level, do some basic math, got comfortable with tools ( even if it's a basic shovel ) and perhaps gained some other experience as well.
At the same time you've also produced a great deal more value than a Walmart Greeter, unemployed MBA grad or a welfare queen.

Ries said:

Yeah, but its a lot easier for a $1.50 an hour employee to put a quarter million tractor in the ditch than it is to topple a 30 ton injection molding machine that is bolted to the floor. Objects in motion tend to stay in motion...

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Try draping the water lines over the top tie bar, close the mold on the couplers, and see what it costs.

We need to correct the pay scale for time... those $1.50 per hour men I mentioned would likely be $10-$15 now. Back then, a lot of the guys doing that work in the Chicago area were coal miners from Appalachia displaced buy the downturn in underground mining. These guys weren't dummies... they knew how to turn wrenches, knew how to follow instructions, were quick to learn and quick to figure out the reason WHY things should be done a certain way. Still, they didn't get paid very much.

But, I don't disagree with the gist of your statement. A kid out of high school used to be able to go to work in the mills, in six months he could boast to his friends, "I pour fire with my hands." Now, what can they say, "I flip burgers"? Yeah, that hot grease is really a killer. It's no wonder so many aspire to boast, "I sell coke."

Dennis

Ignoring (for the moment) "who is going to pay for it?" lets talk about putting folks to work such as the old WPA and CCC that did exactly that during the depression. I realize that things are different now although the conservative right fought it even then.
However, when you create the cornered rat syndrome, and things get bad enough, those folks will come out charging. While they might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, they certainly know how to use one. On a side note, possibly this is part of the current gun commotion.

Any way, failure to put something together for these people is going to come back and bite us in the ass! Most of the major conflagrations around the world occurred when a charismatic leader gathered and galvanized the masses. The French revolution in the late 1700's, Germany and Russia in the '30s are three that come to mind. I would just as soon (as barney fife said "nip it in the bud").

I drive over a bridge every day that has cast in the abutment the WPA logo and the date. With this approach, we at least wind up with something at the end of the day, rather than the folks standing on the corner with a cardboard sign. Trails maintenance, etc. would be a good thing.

We are paying for it anyway, why not get something in return?

Lee (the saw guy)

We had a long discussion about it here:http://www.practicalmachinist.com/vb/manufacturing-america-europe/jobs-jobs-jobs-jobs-261539/
Good to keep it on the front burner.

I see these people first hand everyday. they work at the same location that my shop is in. They dont earn enough to buy food so they get food stamps they have no insurance so when they get sick they dont pay the bill. They dont have car insurance so they drive with out it. They all have lots of childeren so they are all poor as dirt. Most of them can barely read and forget any math above 3rd grade, they have criminal convictions and they use drugs and drink like fish. The world is full of them and there used to be basic jobs for these people. Most will show up 80% of the time, they will work hard enough not to get fired and they wont quit as long as you treat them ok, not great but ok.

Needing jobs for everyone is a big issue... and as has been mentioned not everyone is qualified to operate machinery more complex than a broom. But something no one else has noticed is the collateral jobs.

When Joe plumber ( just an example) makes enough money the wife doesnt work, a very large portion of his paycheck goes into the local economy. Pay one guy well and he supports local restaurants, car dealerships, and so on and so forth. His stay at home wife doesnt take a job someone else might want. Heck she might even have a hobby that generates a local job for someone.

For Joe the plumber to have a decent job we need to fix the government.