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    Post Current market fluctuation and pricing given political climate.

    FIRST OFF: This is not a political thread. This is not pros and cons of the current president of USA.


    Things I think need clearing up that I do not know(Because I can admit I don't know things)

    1) NAFTA- What's going on with this currently. Trump supposedly held meetings with Japan and China too recently in regards to trade deals.

    2) Can stock market be trusted because of everyone wanting to get on the Trump train to early? Is his "friends" he met through the years really pulling the strings to purposely swing the market in his favor to show he is doing a good job? Why I say this is that small business loans have actually dropped which may show that we are all being careful and hesitant still.

    3)Closer to heart, most machine castings are made in Taiwan or South Korea...so how will this affect pricing and delivery?


    The reason I bring this up today is I am seeing a huge trend in the plastics industry of drastic pricing increases that haven't been seen in a long time. Supply and demand. I have heard it's a resin shortage blamed on the Chinese New Year. I have heard the distributors are perhaps covering their a$$ early for a rise in tariffs so we are not surprised with a 50% price increase a year from now..so they are doing it incrementally. A spin off of this is that they actually may believe the market may crash later and bring prices down, so covering a$$ now. There is only one manufacturer in the US that makes their own resin that I am aware of. Also maybe chemicals used in the resin of plastics may come out of China anyways so no matter.

    The iron ore mines up this way are ramping back up so unsure if that will influence anything on that market.One new mill being built is on standstill due to bad investors or something. Steel market was supposedly flooded a year+ ago with chinese steel which most of us know. I may dispute this because I myself didn't see proof, and in the 80's USA wood guys were saying we were being flooded with Canadian timber which didn't really hold up(pun intended)


    RECENT TRUE STORY: Salesman comes into a 4th generation family owned company he has done business with for at least a decade selling the package(box) that the finished product is shipped in. He says pricing is going up 15% and he has no control because the raw material for the package has gone up blah blah. The owner tells him that he is invested in that industry for the last two years and the raw material is at the LOWEST pricing it has been in years! Now get outta my shop and think about what you just tried to pull scumbag.

    So sorry if I come off like I have a tin foil hat, but my trust is on a short string if you know what I mean. Seems no matter what, the small guys keep getting screwed so some shmuck can upgrade to a bigger yacht because he thinks it will help him get laid.

    Just wanted to hear from what others are seeing and hearing for the next year.

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    Some macro economic professor put out a good case for a market crash.....based on interest rate raised by FED ,market trends , politics over 30+yrs etc etc etc...


    Like everything else take with a grain of salt...

    I don't remember who it was, but then again who cares? I'm not invested to the tune of several million or up to my eyeballs in debt...

    Or gambling away the farm playing with derivatives ....

    Food for thought ...

    If your following gold or silver. Which one do you trust? Paper gold or paper silver certificates aren't worth anything if the brokerage firm goes broke.

    Do you trust federal reserves notes that have been devalued by printing money?

    The rest of the world is slowly ridding themselves of reserve currency.

    If the money has less value and it takes more to buy goods and services are you truely further ahead , if you have more of it?

    How much Credit / IOU's are floating around on the market?

    Why would anyone , let banks with $1 - 2B in assets gamble $52B on derivatives?

    Yes, I know it sounds like I'm crazy, but seriously, step back ask basic questions and see where it leads you.

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    To EndlessWaltz and the OP.

    You don't want it political and yet just about everything you mention one way or another is political.

    Trump before he was elected made statements that muddied the water. Those with money saw opportunities as to where to divert their "investments". The water is still muddy and the issue is whether the way Trump acts will help or hinder US industry. It remains to be seen and certainly is not something that can be achieved in a short time. Negative effects happen faster than positive ones.

    I'm pretty sure than any positive effects of Trumps presidency is merely coincidence and would have happened regardless of who was nominated. Trump will be having a meeting at White House #2 with the Chinese president very soon and the result of that meeting will be interesting to put it mildly. I'm hoping both of them realise nothing will be achieved with "threats".

    After that meeting I think we'll all have a better idea as to which direction things are headed.

    Just my personal opinion but what would help most would be if a united congress fought for the USA and not against each other. Definitely not holding my breath waiting for that to happen but it is necessary. Even the best president can do nothing alone.

    I think I've kept that non political

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    consult your favorite fortune teller see what the crystal ball will tell you.

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    EndlessWaltz



    "Seems no matter what, the small guys keep getting screwed so some shmuck can upgrade to a bigger yacht ...."








    A yacht will definitely get one laid. I would screw any number of small businessman if there was a yacht in my future! Current market fluctuation and pricing given political climate.

    Squire





    Sent Using Tapatalk - Cherokee Nation of Oklahoma, Tahlequah OK

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldSquier View Post
    A yacht will definitely get one laid. I would screw any number of small businessman if there was a yacht in my future!

    Squire
    My brother has a 30 foot one. Should I warn him?

    ian.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by EndlessWaltz View Post
    1) NAFTA- What's going on with this currently. Trump supposedly held meetings with Japan and China too recently in regards to trade deals.
    Overall, NAFTA is much ado about not much of substance IMO.

    The US Chamber of Commerce claims 6 million US jobs currently depend on trade with Mexico, and nothing out there seems to dispute that figure with any factual information.

    A study by the Wilson Center says 40% of the value of imports from Mexico is made up of goods temporarily exported from the US to Mexico for inclusion in assemblies that eventually come back into the US. These temporary exports are not counted in US export figures but are counted in the value of goods imported to the US from Mexico.

    If the above is accurate, in round numbers it would represent a shift of about $120 billion in the actual value of goods we import from MX based on 2015 import export stats. We would move from a $60 billion trade deficit to a $60 billion trade surplus with MX. If their study is half correct, then our imports and exports with MX would be about even. At the extremes of a $60b deficit or surplus, either one represents 3/10 of 1 percent of the US economy, so not anything nearly as earth moving as a lot of talking heads would have us believe.

    And finally, there's a fairly long paper from Wharton Business School that attempts to look at the pluses and minuses of NAFTA. They go into a lot of various detail to explain why the fact that economies are dynamic in nature makes it impossible to nail down hard numbers of benefits or negative effects for the US. For example, if sales of widget X have grown by 20% since its production moved to MX, you can't just blindly claim it would've grown by the same amount had production stayed in the US. Maybe it would have, or maybe not, but its impossible to say with any accuracy. Their net conclusion though is that there's been a small net benefit to the US from trade with MX but not one significant enough to make a noticable shift in the overall economy.

    2) Can stock market be trusted because of everyone wanting to get on the Trump train to early? Is his "friends" he met through the years really pulling the strings to purposely swing the market in his favor to show he is doing a good job? Why I say this is that small business loans have actually dropped which may show that we are all being careful and hesitant still.
    Driven almost entirely IMO by big business and the investor class smelling tax cuts for which they're the primary beneficiaries. If you doubt that, look at how the Dow has stopped its upward climb since the tax cut bill for the benefit of the wealthy, sold as health care reform, failed to pass.

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    Quote Originally Posted by metlmunchr View Post
    Driven almost entirely IMO by big business and the investor class smelling tax cuts for which they're the primary beneficiaries.
    Those with a great deal of money are IMO usually more greedy than those with a little. Acquiring as much as possible and, more often than not, more than they need becomes an obsession while rarely using it to benefit others more than themselves.

    The USA is certainly the richest country on Earth but the wealth is in the hands of a very few.

    Question: Of the richest 100 people in the USA how many of them have their money in actual manufacturing?
    If I'm not wrong it was very different a century ago.

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    No one is big enough to manipulate the whole market, a particular security yes, but not the market......so yeah you can trust it, but all trusting a market means is you can count on a bid or an ask when you need it.

    Now if you meant an equities investment....well that's a long answer. The short term is I think risky - the change in bias at Fed, Trump and just air needing to come out of the balloon makes things poised for a correction. So short term I'm bearish. Long term its the best performing investment.

    There's the insight from one crystal ball. Talk to the other 150,000,000 and let s us know what they all think

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Those with a great deal of money are IMO usually more greedy than those with a little. .
    Just a feeling or is there something credible supporting this?

    Typically the wealthy are less greedy if measured by investment class. Once you have it preservation becomes more important that growth.

    while rarely using it to benefit others more than themselves
    credible citations? or just jealously/ prejudice? How do you know what the wealthy do with their money? How about you - by most of the worlds standards, you are extremely wealthy - do you give away most of what you have? (ie do more to help others than yourself with it)

    The reality is you not expect people to act in other than their own economic best interests, philanthropy is nice when it happens but foolish to expect it. Of course when it does happen in a big way it is from the wealthy Nevertheless, even if that movie was right, don't get too uptight, the money isn't under mattresses, it is circulating and therefor helping others

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Just a feeling or is there something credible supporting this?

    Typically the wealthy are less greedy if measured by investment class. Once you have it preservation becomes more important that growth.

    credible citations? or just jealously/ prejudice? How do you know what the wealthy do with their money? How about you - by most of the worlds standards, you are extremely wealthy - do you give away most of what you have? (ie do more to help others than yourself with it)

    The reality is you not expect people to act in other than their own economic best interests, philanthropy is nice when it happens but foolish to expect it. Of course when it does happen in a big way it is from the wealthy Nevertheless, even if that movie was right, don't get too uptight, the money isn't under mattresses, it is circulating and therefor helping others
    I don't think you even realise it Mr. Crystal Ball, but you come across as believing you are more knowledgeable on economy than all others.

    How about when you STATE this and that you also back it up with sources rather than you "read or heard" it somewhere? Surprise surprise but I read and hear things too

    "How about you - by most of the worlds standards, you are extremely wealthy - do you give away most of what you have? (ie do more to help others than yourself with it)"

    I'm certainly not poor even in Denmark but I'm not extremely wealthy either. I have enough to live a comfortable life without worries - barring catastrophes of course.

    As to "do more to help others than yourself with it" then, as I pay my taxes, then yes, I believe I probably pay more into the "system" than I get out of it. I have no problem living with that. If it was the other way around I'd be poor - at least in Denmark. In the USA it seems to be a national sport to pay as little tax as possible as that makes you "SMART".

    Even if you were a tenth as good as you think you are you'd have a very long line of people willing to pay for your help. Do you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post

    I don't think you even realize it Mr. Crystal Ball, but you come across as believing you are more knowledgeable on economy than all others
    Might I suggest we leave the mud slinging, hyperbole insults and name calling behind and sticks to facts logic and rational. You made a statement about how the rich behave. It was a indictment of a lot people so I'd like to know your reasons.

    You also claim the rich are only focused on themselves. I'm trying to point out to that by and large, everyone is focused on themselves, as far as money goes. Consider, on a global basis you are extremely wealthy and there are many people on the planet who could really use your help. You are definitely in the global 1%. If one is supposed to unselfishly devote their wealth to helping others, it shouldn't matter who or where they are; so there are many opportunities for you to do so. Why not sell the car, sell the house, and put that money toward helping others less wealthy if that's what you are suggesting; that other people should focus more on others than the themselves.

    as I pay my taxes, then yes, I believe I probably pay more into the "system" than I get out of it. I have no problem living with that.
    Now you've suggested what you do to help others is pay your taxes, very noble. So by implication if the rich aren't helping others because they are not paying their taxes? This is the root of your discord? Again, tell us how do you know this?

    Lets deal in facts, In the US according to the IRS the top 1% pay 35% of federal taxes, the top 10% paid 68%. So by your metric, that the high ground is paying more than you get out of it, someone who just wrote a 50,000,000 cheque for next tax installment isn't worthy by your standards, how?

    I'm not pro uber-rich, they don't need my help....just anti BS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Might I suggest we leave the mud slinging, hyperbole insults and name calling behind and sticks to facts logic and rational. You made a statement about how the rich behave. It was a indictment of a lot people so I'd like to know your reasons.

    You also claim the rich are only focused on themselves. I'm trying to point out to that by and large, everyone is focused on themselves, as far as money goes. Consider, on a global basis you are extremely wealthy and there are many people on the planet who could really use your help. You are definitely in the global 1%. If one is supposed to unselfishly devote their wealth to helping others, it shouldn't matter who or where they are; so there are many opportunities for you to do so. Why not sell the car, sell the house, and put that money toward helping others less wealthy if that's what you are suggesting; that other people should focus more on others than the themselves.



    Now you've suggested what you do to help others is pay your taxes, very noble. So by implication if the rich aren't helping others because they are not paying their taxes? This is the root of your discord? Again, tell us how do you know this?

    Lets deal in facts, In the US according to the IRS the top 1% pay 35% of federal taxes, the top 10% paid 68%. So by your metric, that the high ground is paying more than you get out of it, someone who just wrote a 50,000,000 cheque for next tax installment isn't worthy by your standards, how?

    I'm not pro uber-rich, they don't need my help....just anti BS.
    You can be certain of this: Blue collar, working-class guys in this country do not need a self-proclaimed genius like you, or "citations" from academic soft-heads to tell them how swell rich people are. I won't lump all wealthy people in the same basket, but it is an observable, demonstrable fact of life that wealthy Americans make their fortunes on the backs of working-class guys. When the time comes for them to pony-up with tax dollars to support social welfare programs, they are nowhere to be found.

    What you don't seem to get is that wealthier people in places like Denmark don't try to dodge paying their taxes. They see value for everyone in reasonable systems of social welfare and they are happy to pay for such benefits. In as sense, it adds to their own wealth and well-being.

    I have no problem with wealthy people, but I do have a problem with greedy people - wealthy or not. We can all benefit greatly from Denmark's example. The same might be said for other Scandinavian nations. They recognize that investments in social welfare benefits everyone and makes for happy lives.

    In a like manner, relationships there between employers and employees are truly remarkable. Companies there treat their employees as a valued asset and workers work harmoniously with their employers. Reasonable rules are in place to protect the interests of all parties and everyone benefits.

    In America, workers are often seen strictly as a business expense. Consequently, wealthy businessmen act to mitigate perceived losses. Those losses being wages and benefits. Workers and employers are quite often enemies trapped in an adversarial relationship, the proximate cause of which is greed on the part of the wealthy business owner.

    Just take a good look at Denmark, for example, and you will find that the employment relationship can be one characterised by mutual respect and fair-dealing. Not true here.

    It is precisely the fact that industrial relations are so strong in Scandinavia that capitalism there works so well. The prevailing form of capitalism there doesn't really resemble capitalism in America. Here, capitalists are greedy, fat, swine who use workers up, then callously cast them aside when their usefulness has expired. No economic journals necessary to know that professor. But it doesn't have to be that way.

    Squire
    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Those with a great deal of money are IMO usually more greedy than those with a little. Acquiring as much as possible and, more often than not, more than they need becomes an obsession while rarely using it to benefit others more than themselves.

    The USA is certainly the richest country on Earth but the wealth is in the hands of a very few.

    Question: Of the richest 100 people in the USA how many of them have their money in actual manufacturing?
    If I'm not wrong it was very different a century ago.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I don't think you even realise it Mr. Crystal Ball, but you come across as believing you are more knowledgeable on economy than all others.

    How about when you STATE this and that you also back it up with sources rather than you "read or heard" it somewhere? Surprise surprise but I read and hear things too

    "How about you - by most of the worlds standards, you are extremely wealthy - do you give away most of what you have? (ie do more to help others than yourself with it)"

    I'm certainly not poor even in Denmark but I'm not extremely wealthy either. I have enough to live a comfortable life without worries - barring catastrophes of course.

    As to "do more to help others than yourself with it" then, as I pay my taxes, then yes, I believe I probably pay more into the "system" than I get out of it. I have no problem living with that. If it was the other way around I'd be poor - at least in Denmark. In the USA it seems to be a national sport to pay as little tax as possible as that makes you "SMART".

    Even if you were a tenth as good as you think you are you'd have a very long line of people willing to pay for your help. Do you?

    Sent Using Tapatalk - Cherokee Nation of Oklahoma, Tahlequah OK

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldSquier View Post
    You can be certain of this: Blue collar, working-class guys in this country do not need a self-proclaimed genius like you, .
    Can we dispense with hyperbole, insults, name calling etc and deal in facts, rational and logic?

    I won't lump all wealthy people in the same basket, but it is an observable, demonstrable fact of life that wealthy Americans make their fortunes on the backs of working-class guys. When the time comes for them to pony-up with tax dollars to support social welfare programs, they are nowhere to be found.
    This is a populist assumption, but its one not support by facts. It seems rather incredible that you or Gordon has greater insight and knowledge on the taxes paid by the wealthy than the IRS does, but hey, maybe you do. So please explain how you know that the rich don't pay tax and are no where to be found

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Can we dispense with hyperbole, insults, name calling etc and deal in facts, rational and logic?



    This is a populist assumption, but its one not support by facts. It seems rather incredible that you or Gordon has greater insight and knowledge on the taxes paid by the wealthy than the IRS does, but hey, maybe you do. So please explain how you know that the rich don't pay tax and are no where to be found
    I didn't mean to say that the wealthy do not pay taxes, although they do keep accountants and tax lawyers busy searching for every conceivable tax-dodge they can find or invent.

    Poor people pay taxes too. My mother passed away last year at the age of 96. She was retired as a federal civil service annuitant. She grossed a whopping 26K annually after 34 years of hard work. She was not allowed Social Security or Medicare as as a federal annuitant. From that amount she paid about 2.4K in health insurance premiums to the Special Agents Mutual Benefit Asso. (US Secret Service Plan), 3-4k annually in federal taxes, and another $800-$900 or so in state taxes. She probably paid another 1.5K in sales taxes. That's about $8,400 in taxes and health insurance premiums. Almost 34% of her income! Her net was something like $17,600 annually. That's perilously close to the poverty level. Try living on $1,400 per month! She lived alternately with me and one of my brothers. If we had not been there to care for her, what would she have done?

    Many millionaires and billionaires get off paying a lower percentage of their income than my 96 year old mom who worked over 3 decades. My parents worked very hard. My father did not miss one, single day of work in 33 years. Then, he took sick leave and died. It was the same with my mom as far as tenacity goes. She worked very, very hard and was a terrific mom to three boys. Modest as her income was, she paid roughly the same percentage of her income in Federal income taxes as billionaire Mitt Romney! How can this be fair? As bad as it was for her, she would happily have paid a much greater percentage to help provide universal healthcare and other social welfare benefits for others. She was a staunch progressive all her life and she was born of proud socialist parents.

    When I say that the rich are nowhere to be found when it comes to paying for social welfare programs, I mean simply that they do not want to pay for them through their taxes, and they seek every possible "out" from paying their fair share. Do you really think it's right that my aged mother should have paid as much as Mitt Romney? Seriously? Yet she would have gladly paid 50% or 60% or more for tax-funded benefits such as exist in Scandinavia. Indeed she did pay over 30% when health premiums are included in the overarching tax calculus. I see no reason other than greed to explain why the uber-rich are not paying at a 60% or even 70% bracket.

    As for your admonition to stop making insulting remarks, I see it like this: You hold yourself out as an expert on all matters economic and political. You cannot admit of the possibility that you are wrong, ever! Moreover, you are an apologist for the greedy, right-wing, capitalist oligarchs I loathe. Change your behaviors and I will stop calling you a pinhead and right-wing tool. Fair enough?

    Squire

    Sent Using Tapatalk - Cherokee Nation of Oklahoma, Tahlequah OK

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Might I suggest we leave the mud slinging, hyperbole insults and name calling behind and sticks to facts logic and rational. You made a statement about how the rich behave. It was a indictment of a lot people so I'd like to know your reasons.

    You also claim the rich are only focused on themselves. I'm trying to point out to that by and large, everyone is focused on themselves, as far as money goes. Consider, on a global basis you are extremely wealthy and there are many people on the planet who could really use your help. You are definitely in the global 1%. If one is supposed to unselfishly devote their wealth to helping others, it shouldn't matter who or where they are; so there are many opportunities for you to do so. Why not sell the car, sell the house, and put that money toward helping others less wealthy if that's what you are suggesting; that other people should focus more on others than the themselves.



    Now you've suggested what you do to help others is pay your taxes, very noble. So by implication if the rich aren't helping others because they are not paying their taxes? This is the root of your discord? Again, tell us how do you know this?

    Lets deal in facts, In the US according to the IRS the top 1% pay 35% of federal taxes, the top 10% paid 68%. So by your metric, that the high ground is paying more than you get out of it, someone who just wrote a 50,000,000 cheque for next tax installment isn't worthy by your standards, how?

    I'm not pro uber-rich, they don't need my help....just anti BS.
    I wish you were as good at reading as you think you are on economics. If you don't want "mud slinging" then don't write that all who don't agree with you don't know what they're writing about.

    "Now you've suggested what you do to help others is pay your taxes, very noble. So by implication if the rich aren't helping others because they are not paying their taxes? This is the root of your discord? Again, tell us how do you know this? "

    BS. Imply all you want but in FACT what I wrote was that I've over the years probaby paid in more to the tax system than I've taken out of it. If you think that's me being "noble" then so be it. I've never paid my tax with a big smile or while clapping my hands but neither does it get me all upset. I've got a pretty good idea as to what I get for my tax money and I'm satisfied.

    Let's take your "facts". "In the US according to the IRS the top 1% pay 35% of federal taxes, the top 10% paid 68%.....".

    How much do the top 1% in fact earn or have? After that let me know how much the top 10% earn.

    Wealth Inequality in America - YouTube

    Is this video and the chart shown wrong?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I wish you were as good at reading as you think you are on economics. If you don't want "mud slinging" then don't write that all who don't agree with you don't know what they're writing about.
    Please just post without the hyperbole and insults.

    How much do the top 1% in fact earn or have? After that let me know how much the top 10% earn.
    You are changing the subject toward that they should pay a lot. I'm not disputing that however it is irrelevant to the point being discussed, your claim that they don't pay a lot and are greedy. Based on facts I've found, from the IRS, that seems wrong. Explain the information you have to support your claims.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldSquier View Post
    As for your admonition to stop making insulting remarks, I see it like this: You hold yourself out as an expert on all matters economic and political. You cannot admit of the possibility that you are wrong, ever! Moreover, you are an apologist for the greedy, right-wing, capitalist oligarchs I loathe. Change your behaviors and I will stop calling you a pinhead and right-wing tool. Fair enough?
    Please post with out the name calling insults hyperbole and attacks.

    I have asked a couple of simple questions in this thread and also presented information that seems to refute the assertion the rich somehow are not paying tax. I'd like to know what information the individuals making those assertions have in support of them

    There is nothing to be angry about.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Can we dispense with hyperbole, insults, name calling etc and deal in facts, rational and logic?

    This is a populist assumption, but its one not support by facts. It seems rather incredible that you or Gordon has greater insight and knowledge on the taxes paid by the wealthy than the IRS does, but hey, maybe you do. So please explain how you know that the rich don't pay tax and are no where to be found
    LOL Your "facts" just might be "alternative facts". Your reasoning seems to be "If the IRS says so then it must be right".

    Well of course it is. No government agency would lie, distort the truth or even manipulate "facts" and we all know that statistics are always true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    LOL Your "facts" just might be "alternative facts". Your reasoning seems to be "If the IRS says so then it must be right".

    Well of course it is. No government agency would lie, distort the truth or even manipulate "facts" and we all know that statistics are always true.
    so you think the IRS is lying, because the info they present doesn't agree with your position? What information do you have the led to your position in the first place?

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