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  1. #81
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    Bumping this and want it back on track..

    Seeing alot of small businesses VERY slow or going belly up and it's not even dead of winter yet. Curious if stocks are going up up up because of speculation and housing.

    What are others seeing ..busy or no?

  2. #82
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    Seems to me that stock prices are up for two reasons. First, because there's a ton of money flying around and no better place to put it. There are few places in the world that don't have turmoil. As much as we like to complain about our economy -- even post Great Recession it was like Churchill's point about democracy -- it's the worst possible except for all the rest. Second, because major investors are expecting (and getting) a big wet kiss in terms of lower taxes. Perhaps the .1% version of irrational/rational exuberance?

    Also seems to me that we're almost inevitably headed for another fairly major crash. As discussed elsewhere, there are three main ways to motivate honest financial dealing. One is to put the crooks in jail. We haven't done that -- and now continue to put them in key cabinet and financial positions. Second is to reinstate Glass-Steagall (which was actually in the Republican platform). Funny thing is we haven't heard a peep about that after a year in full power -- while hedge fund money (Mercer etc.) funds campaigns. Third way would be Dodd-Frank, which we've just eviscerated. So, basically we're in exactly the same position with financiers taking unreasonable risks and expecting taxpayers to bail them out.

    Another crisis in confidence in our financial systems is also likely around the corner. Early this year we decided that financial advisors were allowed to screw their customers. Actually got rid of the law saying they had to be honest. More recently we've essentially said that the next time Wells Fargo starts taking out thousands of fraudulent accounts in customers' names, those customers can't sue. Instead, one by one they need to go to Wells Fargo appointed arbitration (and can't even share data with other victims). At some point we're headed to another crisis in confidence -- this crashing whatever confidence games are being played on us some years out.

    The big question -- and I don't think anyone can do better than throw a dart at it -- is precisely when we go from stocks doing well to stocks crashing? Maybe look for some cascading crisis. One version of that might be if Congress gets serious about cutting Social Security and Medicare -- enough so that our aging demographic notices. Another might be another 9-11 style attack. There's also likely a financial crook somewhere (shades of Keating, Enron, Goldman etc.) about to be discovered. Still another might be a major hiccup with a NAFTA or Pac Rim style trade war. Miscalculation with Iran or North Korea another one.

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  4. #83
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    Hello EndlessWaltz,
    Slow here, it's been like this for over a year. We do aerospace work mainly, commercial aircraft tooling. Something is a miss, some very old suppliers that I knew have closed in the LA area. A little bit more military work coming in, but nothing to get exited about. I've seen this before, but the long established shop closings are a bit concerning.

    On the subject of stocks; I'm certainly no expert, but run-ups like this without any meaningful pull-backs are not a good sign. There doesn't seem to be enough "Longs" and there's plenty of "Shorts". In closing, I will quote a highly regarded phrase; "The market will do what it must to prove the majority wrong"

    otrlt

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  6. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by EndlessWaltz View Post
    Bumping this and want it back on track..

    Seeing alot of small businesses VERY slow or going belly up and it's not even dead of winter yet. Curious if stocks are going up up up because of speculation and housing.

    What are others seeing ..busy or no?
    Here both small and large businesses are doing very well. Loads of optimism.

    2008 gave bumps for a few years but things are not only back to "normal" but better than they were.

    Forbes Welcome

    Forbes Welcome

    Unlike some (many?) countries there are no surges in our economy, just a steady improvement amost every year.

    US Debt Clock :: National Debt of United States

    Denmark Debt Clock :: National Debt of Denmark

    All can find their own country. What I like is a debt as % of GDP.

    Norway is doing well.
    Norway Debt Clock :: National Debt of Norway

  7. #85
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    I don´t doubt Your comments // analysis -- unfortunately.
    Please give any links if You have them.
    Much appreciated, in advance.

    If both 1. and 2. are factual, approx 0% or normal/honest resolution is possible.
    -- over the 3-7 year timeperiod crashes happen.

    Thus the next crash is likely to be be faster, worse, more polarising.
    IT is likely to fund a more dynamic populist chief.


    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    1.
    Another crisis in confidence in our financial systems is also likely around the corner. Early this year we decided that financial advisors were allowed to screw their customers. Actually got rid of the law saying they had to be honest.
    2.
    More recently we've essentially said that the next time Wells Fargo starts taking out thousands of fraudulent accounts in customers' names, those customers can't sue. Instead, one by one they need to go to Wells Fargo appointed arbitration (and can't even share data with other victims). At some point we're headed to another crisis in confidence -- this crashing whatever confidence games are being played on us some years out.

  8. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    I don´t doubt Your comments // analysis -- unfortunately.
    Please give any links if You have them.
    Much appreciated, in advance. . ..
    Link #1 on no more fiduciary duty from financial advisors: Forbes Welcome

    Link #2 on too bad if your bank screws you: Congressional Republicans use special manuever to kill ‘arbitration rule’ - The Washington Post

    I suppose a third nail in the coffin would be the Gorsich appointment, not with respect to abortion but the role of hidden money in politics (he and Thomas apparently like it).

    Link #3 on going beyond Citizens United to make sure money drives our electoral process. Good news is that, so far, these two are a minority on the Court: Gorsuch dissents as Supreme Court upholds ban on big-money gifts to parties - LA Times

    Not sure if you wanted links on some of the other items. You can Google the Republican Party platform for Glass Steagall and then find a complete absence of legislation to that effect since. The hardly-anyone-has-gone-to-jail since 2008 (for corruption and fraud behind the Great Recession) was probably widely reported in the world press. Fines, yes, paid by stockholders. Jail, not so much.

    Link #4 on Dodd-Frank being eviscerated: House votes to kill Dodd-Frank. Now what? - Jun. 8, 217

    If you're a cynic and want to follow the money (and answer the trivia question, "What do hedge fund billionaries, the recently indicted Paul Manaforte, Breitbart News, their white nationalist readers, Steve Bannon, WikiLeaks, the Russians, and the Cambridge Analytics dossier on Clinton have in common?") . . .

    . . . here are Links #5 & #6: The Reclusive Hedge Fund Billionaire Behind Trump's Campaign : NPR Another longer story: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ump-presidency It's not just the Kochs and Sheldon Adelson advocating their version of screw-you politics in the latest cycle.

    And, yes, Hilary Clinton was also no saint when it came to supporting financial interests.

    Any of those can lead you to other sources beyond Forbes, the Post, the New Yorker, etc. I do have some optimism that we'll eventually find all this so egregious that some good will come out if it. Long term I think the US will remain an innovative force in technology and business. We could do with a bit less of financiers and special interests (finance, defense, energy, pharma, insurance, gambling . . .) skimming things off the top.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Thus the next crash is likely to be be faster, worse, more polarising.
    IT is likely to fund a more dynamic populist chief.
    That remark might be too suble for some

    BTW how's daily life in Catelonia at present? Exaggerated by the media or as bad as it seems?

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    And, yes, Hilary Clinton was also no saint when it came to supporting financial interests.
    Among the many talents the next president of the USA will have to have is the ability to walk on water to turn things around.

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    A wealth management guy said to a friend of mine recently that they are just riding the wave...but they know it has to crash.

    I have a very bleak outlook but at the same time good seems to come from bad(or really bad since we didn't learn anything from the recession)

    I hope others are doing okay..but be cautious with investments.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EndlessWaltz View Post
    ...since we didn't learn anything from the recession
    Some of us already had. In manufacturing there is no substitute for having weathered a few recessions. You learn the difference between overheated optimism and reality. After barely surviving my first one in the early 80s I was able to recognize the signs beginning in 2006. Dropped marginally profitable items from our catalog, halted all unnecessary expenditures, canceled the next extravagant automobile, and canceled all domestic print advertising. Sure, that has a ripple effect—but my responsibility is to preserve our employees' future, not somebody else's future. And it worked. The pendulum always swings back and conditions improve; the idea is to still be around and ready when it does. Although the election of last year gave US manufacturing a (welcome) psychological lift, it was starting to turn around anyway. The recession that I experienced lasted from '08 to '15. During that stretch our sales stayed generally below 2007 levels but we managed to buy five new CNC machines and keep all ten people on the payroll. It meant single-minded concentration on business; during that entire stretch I did not listen to a single speech by Obama, as he offered nothing apart from an instinctive hostility to manufacturers in the US. The only time I spent on politics was to post occasionally in this PM subforum, and to no particular purpose other than to try to incite a teeth-gnashing rage on the part of our collectivist contingent, which culminated in November 2016. But that was amusement and not business. Politics doesn't really have much to do with achievement by creative people. You serve your market and innovate and pay your bills.

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  14. #91
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    Been very busy here, and all the local shops same. My order book is full through the end of the year.

    2 consecutive quarters GDP growth above 3% (something the fortune tellers said was no longer possible).

    Tax reforms in Congress should give a boost to that. If it makes it through, I think we'll see a surge in capital investment from small businesses.


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