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  1. #1
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    Default Electric cars - Tesla and global

    1.
    My first post lays out things as they are, facts, generally accepted.
    I am asking for comments, opinions, observations.

    What do You guys think will happen ?

    2.
    My second post is my observations, comments, opinions.
    It has major implications for all of use.
    I think.

    Moderator - (B)EVs are the major growth industry in the USA and globally, and the major new manufacturing industry.
    If this is not appropriate, delete thread.


    Facts, generally consensus.

    Today, Tesla is the world leader in BEV or Battery Electric Vehicles, of good quality and performance, quantified as compelling.
    Ie they are really good cars.
    Tesla also has many technical and market driven risks and risks they have chosen to adopt.
    Tesla produced about 80.000 cars, 2016, and 4 years of 50% y/y growth.
    USA total sales about 120.000 NEVs, 2016, == 1%.

    BYD in china is the global leader in nr of electric and hybrid cars made, collectively NEVs or New Energy Vehicles.
    China about 440.000 NEVs sold, 2016, vs 120k or so 2015, near 270% growth.

    Globally, about 1-2% of all new cars are NEVs, and the trend has grown about 100% every 12-18 months, last 4-5-6 years.
    Everywhere a NEV is possible.

    So a gulf state (or say malaysia, 0.15$/l gas, 8 times cheaper) with free (near free) gas is not really a good comparison, nor south america with no money or weak infrastructure and no NEV sales outlets, nor russia in siberia with -20C for a long time.

    Globally, cars are heavily taxed. Fuel is heavily taxed. Avg gas cost is == 6$/gallon.
    Avg power cost is 4 cents/kWh, nighttime.
    Nighttime electricity, or excess (nuke, wind, PV) electricity is getting cheaper and more abundant.

    About 98% of global new energy installations 2016++ are PV and wind, avg 4 cents/kWh PPA to utility, and free to users when they have excess capacity. Thus is makes sense for all utilities to grab any revenue they can, from BEV use, and the use is growing very rapidly.
    The power use by BEVs from utilities will become significant in 1-2-3 years.
    Today it is still immaterial except 1-2 markets like Norway.

    Electricity for power for BEVs vs gas is about 5-7(-3, -2)) times cheaper for the economy, or technically for the user, today.
    Depends on what You measure, and where You pick Your numbers from.

    All power use globally, for mobility ie cars and vans and local delivery trucks, could be electric, on todays electric grids.
    Ie global grid capacity, national capacity in any OECD country, is everywhere greater than total mobility needs at approx 200Wh/km.
    A Tesla Model S, very heavy + high end big car, uses 260W/km.
    A small (oldish, unefficient in .cd) EV uses 160 W/km or less.
    At 200W/km, total energy use would be less than 30% of current total use, and more than spare grid capacity integrated overall.

    The US, and China, are at about 1% of all new NEVs in new vehicles sold.
    This doubled historically 12-18 months, and will likely accelerate Very Soon Now.
    Ie in months, or a year, or so.
    It will accelerate, in my opinion, because the first good stuff EVs with cheap batteries is coming within 12 months more or less.

    And because the first BEVs with real powerful motors, come out now 2017 or 2018.
    Spain is at 2.x %, Norway over 10% iirc.
    For 2016, last year.

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    Default BEVs - Real Soon Now

    Opinion:
    Analysis:
    I expect;
    1.
    BEVs to take over all auto stuff, almost immediately.
    1-2-5 years.
    Basis.
    In max 2 years from 2017, about 8-10% of all new cars sold are BEVs.
    By 2019 at latest, YE or Year End, in all major EV compatible developed markets.

    2. This will kill 1 or more auto majors.
    Bankrupt.
    Year 2018, +/- 1 year.

    No idea if the governments in the USA, Germany (VW), or Japan will help them.
    I have never been right in my expectations of government or mass market actions, or their timing.

    3.

    About 30% of say VW (MB,GM,etc) is devoted to their core expertise.
    Core expertise:
    Engineering in ICE engines, powertrain.
    Multiple sub-disciplines in fuel, tanks, cooling, firewall, radiator, pumps and liquid transfer etc.

    For most auto stuff, the rest as in seats, windows etc is outsourced, and they are experts in assembly and contracting.

    Traditional auto has no major expertise in SW or power electronics.
    VFDs are mostly software + power electronics.

    BEVs:
    A BEV depends on power electronics and batteries.
    On the efficiency of the electric motor.
    Power electronics in charging, as efficiently as possible.
    Power electronics in using the power, as efficiently and as fast/powerfully as possible at need.
    All 4 disciplines are pretty well understood.
    But a BEV needs excellency, not pretty well.

    Today, any big retail VFD = 92% efficient.
    If running 1500 amps x 400 volts => 600 kW.
    (Tesla top end, now).
    A loss of 8% x 600 kW = 48 kW.
    Thus efficiency of the power electronics is primordial.

    Data.
    Tesla had in 2016 done 12 versions of their power electronics VFD that drives the motor.
    Their own design.
    It is now both better and cheaper.
    And they were 3-4-6% better, around 96%, efficient, at that time.

    It is critical for a BEV to have very efficient VFDs both in and out, and very efficient power transmission systems.
    If You don´t have very high efficiency You cannot charge fast,
    or have high power output,
    or have longevity.
    Heat kills lions, just like it kills PCs/HDDs, etc.

    It is critical for a BEV to have very high C rates both charge and discharge, for the battery.
    And high longevity, at the same time.
    I know quite a bit about the tech and power electronics area, although by no means can I design anything.

    It is not that hard to do better, and it does not take that many superb people.
    But it does still take 1-2 years if you have lots of money, and you do still need 1-2 superb people.
    (Just copying another design is much easier.)
    Longevity stuff also takes some time.

    Conclusion.
    Today, Tesla is by far the leader in the power-electronics area.
    This is a 2-3 year lead, that will run out, at some point.
    That lead might possibly extend, for several reasons, to 10 or more years.

    With plenty of money, other big companies (can and will) may catch up.
    But it will take time, lots of it.

    Recap real world.
    Tesla has a major moat for some years.
    After that, some (maybe many) others will be good enough.

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    Default BEV batteries

    The batteries are the critical part - due to cost/performance/mass.

    Tesla had the brilliant idea in 2010 to qualify and group lots of tiny cheap energy-dense mass market batteries into big packs.
    Risky, technically, in many ways.

    Most traditional auto makers used or still use pouch batteries.

    Because they "seem" better - but are actually not technically.
    By cost, thermal stuff, longevity, or energy density.
    And are much more expensive by kWh.

    Cost is critical.
    Longevity is critical.
    C rate is critical.
    Energy density/cost is critical.
    Volumetric efficiency is very important.

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    Default

    I'm very glad to see this finally happening. Then it'll be a few years before used EV's are cheap enough for a bottom feeder like me.

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    Well..
    depends where you count from imo.

    Around 2020, 3 years from now, about 70 new BEVs will appear (supposedly). Announced from Big Auto.
    This 70 is very unlikely, for many reasons.
    But several models, or lots of, is virtually certain.

    Most will be technically weakish, like the current offers from lets say Traditional Auto.
    Or lets say Not Compelling.
    Small battery (kills it), thus low performance, and often crippled with non-flat-skateboard design (like the Bolt), killing safety.
    But *some* will be good.
    And some models will get "good" via upgrades or new versions, even from Big Auto or Traditional Auto.
    Perhaps Very Good.

    There is no way traditional auto will leave *all* the market to Tesla et al for long, and a huge rush + bunch of new BEV startups, mostly trying to imitate Tesla, and mostly doing a poor to very poor job at it.

    So, around 2020, 3 years, lots of good BEVs will appear.
    Around 2021, some at least will also be cheap, since historically there are always competitors selling on price, and some figure out ways to sell good-and-cheap.

    My conjecture:
    Around 2021 Tesla and Pana, who are quite open to selling batteries to any startups or other BEVs, will be able to deliver big, cheap, auto-qualified BEV batteries in quantity to anyone, cheaply.

    Their *pack* costs will be around 40-50-60$/kWh, and likely 80-100$ in wholesale quantities 1000 plus.
    This price might also well be their "B" pack, and not the cutting-edge one they use themselves.

    Ie the next- gen Model 3 / TE pack they just started making, Jan 4, size 2710, with new secret sauce etc etc. might be/will be "B" pack in 2021.
    I have forecast it at 360 Wh/kg for 1-1.5 years (current is 260 Wh /kg).

    Now, all indications are it is quite a bit better.
    I have no idea ... but I think, now, 1.5 years later, I was too conservative.

    Cost => size in kWh.
    Size => performance, longevity, thermal effects in hot and cold climates.

    A Big Pack gets You Faster Charging, Longer Range, More Performance, Longer Life, Less Losses in cold weather, less losses due to AirCon in hot weather.
    This is the Tesla Lesson.

    My current prediction.
    New battery is more energy dense. Cheaper per kg by 30%. 30% more dense volumetrically.
    Approx 400 Wh/kg.
    Thus it is very, very cheap, in marginal costs.
    Perhaps near 100$/kWh, now, early summer 2017 when they announce it with specs.
    Say 110$ / 2017/summer.

    Tesla Model 3 base packs will be closer to 60-65 kWh standard than the expected 54 kWh rumour/current estimates.
    Thus range will be approx 250-280 miles, for basic models.
    This is huge.
    As a corollary result, all the current models Model S and Model X will have a major increase in pack size, range, or reduction in cost.
    About 20% / model.
    This is huge.

    A direct result will be production costs with 2710 new batteries for Model S and Model X dropping by about 5.000$ / model.
    This will make Tesla the company profits.
    They will be profitable, just with cheaper batteries.

    All results are a direct result from cheaper big batteries.

    Calc:
    Today, at maybe 180$/kWh cost as I have predicted for 1 year.
    They make about 100k cars/year, about 80 kWh avg, 8GWh, or so, run rate, 1/2017.
    Batteries cost them about 80*180 = 14.400 $ per car.
    At 120$, => 8800 $.
    Savings, 5600$ x 100.000 = 560 M$ year.

    Tesla lost about 600M in 2016, on 76 K units, while paying for Model 3 stuff, gigafactory stuff, supercharger expansions, new service centers, R&D 800M, new sales areas in Spain, South Korea, etc. not yet bringing in any revenue.

    Even with zero sales of Model 3 2017,
    and the new battery costs, Tesla will be directly profitable, GAAP,
    while maintaining the same spend, about 1-3B/yr, depending on how You count it.

    I am not a Tesla proponent as such, mainly.
    I use Tesla as a proxy, and as an example of what will happen, absolutely, due to technology advances and cost curves.
    I like Tesla, but it does not mean I don´t dislike many of their risky foolhardy errors, choices or mistakes.
    Tesla did lots of things right, and lots of things wrong, and has managed to carry it off.

    Just like the PC wars, HDD wars, processor wars, Internet browser wars, ISP wars. I was involved in lots of them, and somewhat of a principal in many, for about 20 years.

    Endpoint:

    Mostly due to Tesla, big mobility batteries, cheap, will be available in quantity in 2-3-4 years.
    Elon Musk has said this for 5 years, and is perfectly correct.
    Everything goes electric, due to money.

    It is by no means likely, or certain, that Tesla will sell all the batteries, or most of them.
    But it is practically certain that someone somewhere will sell the batteries, and if or when anyone anywhere can make them available, all transport goes electric. Practically overnight.
    Now, it looks increasingly likely that Tesla takes all the marbles and the Big Prize.

    At say 80$/kWh, 400Wh/kg, a new BEV "sports car - family sedan of 200 kW / 260 Hp" will cost about 24.000$ zero subsidy by 2020.
    Like an electric Toyota Corolla, == 60 kWh battery, == 250 miles range.

    All this has been public, for 5-6 years, and no big company from energy, oil, transport, or investments has bothered to make any moves.
    All this has been obvious, since the Tesla roadster worked and was delivered.

    What that proves conclusively, again, is that all the execs in Big Auto, Big Oil, Big Transport, Big Energy, and Big Investment have been myopic, incompetent, and totally clueless.
    Just like IBM vs PC 25 years ago and Big Rail vs auto in 1900.
    Bid Data vs PC.
    Oracle vs linux (MySQL, PostgreSQL). etc..

    They have all used ostrich management.
    Ostrich management:
    "Put head in sand, say it does not matter, I cannot see it".


    Quote Originally Posted by neilho View Post
    I'm very glad to see this finally happening. Then it'll be a few years before used EV's are cheap enough for a bottom feeder like me.

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    WTF? 5 posts and 4 of them are hallucinations from Hanermo?

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    If 50% of all cars go electric than where will the lost revenue from gasoline tax come from. Just asking.
    You have three guesses - and two are wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tdmidget View Post
    WTF? 5 posts and 4 of them are Tesla stock forecasts from Hanermo?

    There, I've fixed it for ya!

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    The whole share price issue is the real problem with most large business.

    R&D is always a long term pay off. It does nothing for share price in the short term except add volatility. Share holders are greedy fucks simply wanting max short term gain. That means any publicly listed company is not chasing products a decade into the future. The fact the governments support this is flawed, badly flawed, they should be made to fail and not bailed out like a boat with a hole in it because thats all they are!

    Im firmly in the electric car camp, if i had the funds my current truck would be electric no question. The tech is all there now and the batteries are more than upto it. Yeah large packs need cooling if you really want to push the charge and discharge to the limits, but the potential is vast. A customers customer just got a Tesla, over 2G acceleration (yeah in the dry!!) Put that into perspective, the space shuttle only pulls 3G on launch! His words its as fast as any road going bike. He races dragsters, so its not over blown hype - bull shit claims either.

    Unless you have been into the RC electric world or similar you have no idea what performance you can get out of small electric motors, its nothing like the industrial ones on our machine tools. 2kw output out of a motor the size of a coke can. Motor the size of a gallon paint can, can equally or exceed the power out of most smaller IC car engines. Brush-less - VFD style drives are ungodly efficient. Hell 1950's electrical tech was more efficient than the theoretical thermodynamically limits on a IC engine and no production car is near that limit yet and arguably never will be due to emission restrictions.

    Add a fuel source thats obtainable in a diverse and varied range of ways and there’s no need to give a stuff about the middle east any more. Electric is easy to generate with no environmental pollution and is the future.

    No doubt in time electric verichals will be taxed, though i think its realistic that taxes may stop rising much before long or there’s going to be some serious back lash. A lot of the under 40 population are getting fed up with poor infrastructure, stupid wars and funding a ever ageing population.

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    I figure it wont be long before .40 a gallon tax will be on gas so perhaps $240 a year for a 12,000mi year will be charged for electric cars. Likely not to start for perhaps 10 years when electric cars are more common.IMHO

    A $35k car with a $7500 tax write off brings it down to $27,500
    This for a car about the size of of a small ford that might cost $22,000 and get 30MPG.

    Billing everybody's tax bill to pay for the $7500 tax incentive could become a burden if electrics get to 25% of all cars.

    120.000 electrics at $5000 (tax incentive) = $600,000,000.. wait can that be right?

    So $600m / 85m taxpayers it will cost me over $7.00 to help someone buy a car. (perhaps $10.)
    Last edited by michiganbuck; 01-24-2017 at 12:38 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tdmidget View Post
    WTF? 5 posts and 4 of them are hallucinations from Hanermo?
    It only gets worse. You have the MichBuck. Like Spain wasn't bad enough. Fuck me, what a Cluster fuck.

    Dribble, Dribble, Dribble.. BE CAREFUL OF THAT DRIBBLE.

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    Quote Originally Posted by machtool View Post
    It only gets worse. You have the MichBuck. Like Spain wasn't bad enough. Fuck me, what a Cluster fuck.

    Dribble, Dribble, Dribble.. BE CAREFUL OF THAT DRIBBLE.
    You should be out back picking up gold nuggets..not here complaining about my post.IMHO.
    Victorian gold rush - Wikipedia

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    Quote Originally Posted by adama View Post
    The whole share price issue is the real problem with most large business.

    R&D is always a long term pay off. It does nothing for share price in the short term except add volatility.
    unless you have a clever marketing team that can sell your concept to 300-400 THOUSAND people for $1000 each just to get in the queue for the product. Thats a reasonable dint into the cost of R&D.

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    Well a " Tesla " just passed us on a mountain road out in rural Spain in the middle of nowhere ! Nice looking car.
    Regards Tyrone.

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    At some point in the future (22nd century?), electric vehicles will use specially colored electrons that have road tax on them - and will subsidize the gasoline powered cars that will remain the staple mode of transportation for the poor.

    Also - technically - no EV uses a "VFD" - they use an inverter managed by a field oriented control algorithm (AC Flux Vector technology). My second job after college was in developing this technology with the company that has done most of the development work for GM and Faraday . . . I remember a GEO Storm in the early 90's outfitted with the GM/Delco/Hughs EV1 drivetrain mopping up Pikes Peak with an Acura Legend. That was 25 years ago and we are just now on the cusp of a great explosion of EV growth? The whole reason I got into motion control was because of how boring a single motor spinning became and the virtual pipe dream EV's were at that time with respect to economics and environmental impact.

    The countries with Lithium reserves will become the new Middle East . . . we will need a few more wars before all this will happen. I've grown cynical.

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    1. No pitch for Tesla.

    This thread is "manufacturing in USA and EU", and Tesla is manufacturing in the USA.
    Manufacturing more than any auto company in the USA.
    Paying well.
    Doing well.
    And growing fast.

    And You do not like it ??

    2.
    Obviously the current BEV subsidies will end or reduce.
    Obviously there will be some new taxation on BEVs.
    I always said so..

    3.
    I disagree on Your comment re: road taxes.
    There is no taxation on fuel or cars in the USA or (most, maybe any ?? OECD) *to pay for roads*.
    Afaik.
    It is a tax that is not earmarked, and goes into the general fund.
    A tax-called "road-tax" that goes into the general fund does not itself pay for roads.

    Equally, Spain, an annual tax called "driving tax" or "impuesto de circulation" has nothing to do with driving and goes into the general fund.
    And the gas taxes are about .8€ / l on gas at 1.2 € (plus 22% IVA or VAT).
    This translate to about 6€ / US gallon, and 4-5 € are taxes.
    +/- Average for EU, and for OECD countries.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    1.
    Here we go again with another thinly disguised pitch for Tesla. For the average Joe seeking an electric car there are several smaller and cheaper options. Personally I have no plans to purchase an EV but to each their own.

    2.
    What is certain is that subsidies will dry up as more of them hit the roads and some manner of paying for roads will be imposed as an alternative to fuel taxes.

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    An inverter is commonly called a Variable Frequency Drive or VFD.
    With details and variations, and as You say - which I don´t doubt - no doubt it may use "AC flux vector technology" as You said.

    It is still a Variable Frequency Drive, driving a 3-phase synchronous motor.
    Around 20.000 rpm at top speed, about 10:1 final drive ratio, maybe 9.3:1.
    Tesla does their own VFD, == 12 versions of it so far by 2015/2016, pics online.

    All the time to make the drive have less losses aka heat, as then the VFD lasts longer and total range is higher and the acceleration is higher, for marketing reasons.
    And the drive has fewer and cheaper components.
    The total difference is small, yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by motion guru View Post

    Also - technically - no EV uses a "VFD" - they use an inverter managed by a field oriented control algorithm (AC Flux Vector technology).

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    An inverter is commonly called a Variable Frequency Drive or VFD.
    With details and variations, and as You say - which I don´t doubt - no doubt it may use "AC flux vector technology" as You said.

    It is still a Variable Frequency Drive, driving a 3-phase synchronous motor.
    Around 20.000 rpm at top speed, about 10:1 final drive ratio, maybe 9.3:1.
    Tesla does their own VFD, == 12 versions of it so far by 2015/2016, pics online.

    All the time to make the drive have less losses aka heat, as then the VFD lasts longer and total range is higher and the acceleration is higher, for marketing reasons.
    And the drive has fewer and cheaper components.
    The total difference is small, yes.
    Hanermo . . . as someone who has worked in the industry for 25+ years . . . referring to an inverter that employs closed loop management of stator current with respect to rotor position as a "VFD" is akin to referring to the Sun as a big Flashlight.

    This is starting to sound like "Fake News" . . . are you on the Soros payroll?

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post

    3.
    I disagree on Your comment re: road taxes.
    There is no taxation on fuel or cars in the USA or (most, maybe any ?? OECD) *to pay for roads*.
    Afaik.
    It is a tax that is not earmarked, and goes into the general fund.
    A tax-called "road-tax" that goes into the general fund does not itself pay for roads.
    I donno, some of us may have noticed. The voters of the state of Illinois just passed an amendment to the state constitution that would prohibit just that. To quote one news article:

    "Illinois passed a constitutional amendment that will block legislators from using transportation revenue funds from being reallocated to anything outside their outlined purpose. The Illinois Transportation Taxes and Fees Lockbox Amendment won by 79 percent of the vote on Tuesday night, with 98 percent of the state reporting, the Associated Press reported."

    Dennis

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    Think all states pay about 18 cents federal per gallon of gas. California and Michigan are about .38 or .39 with total state and federal..Yes it is supposed to go to roads and the like.
    I think Ohio has about the lowest here abouts but could be wrong on that.

    Electrics will have to pay a share if their numbers go high and we want good roads.
    Think we pay about 14 cents per kilowatt hour but don't have an electric bill handy.

    So at .14 how much electric would be needed to run 12,000 miles a year. That is about how much I n so paying about $1500 for gas and perhaps $228 for gas tax.. Yes that is a lot of driving. Used to write off part of my gas for deliveries but now let UPS do the driving.

    Here is the chart , looks like I am high on California and Michigan
    http://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/...h/Rates/mf.pdf

    but here th tax is said to be higher..California gas taxes: Higher than advertised - Watchdog.org


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