Electric cars worldwide - and Tesla
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    Default Electric cars worldwide - and Tesla

    Has everyone else noticed that the largest new manufacturing company in the USA, Tesla, practically guaranteed a 10x fold expansion of their business today ?

    We had several comments on this, late last year.

    My view was that;
    -they make good products, but had very high execution risk due to low cash reserves
    -that if they made it to April, Model 2 unveil, they will likely become *the* new auto major

    Tesla sold 4 B dollars of new product, (2 years) before delivery, in 30 hours.
    Its a world record for any company.
    These sales will likely go over 10 Billion dollars sales (300.000 paid 1000$ reservations) in less than 3 days (Trip Chowdry, est. I agree)

    They have gotten, in one day, so far 150.000 => 150 M $ "free" cash.
    At 150.000 $ they have already sold out everything they can make 2016, 2017, 2018, WHILE
    - doubling production and sales still futher in 2016,2017, 2018
    - AND essentially guaranteeing financing for it

    Electric car sales go up 50-100% every year, or double approx every 18 months, worldwide, in every market they are actively sold.

    Currently, sales are about 1-2% of all new cars, in active markets.
    Active markets, now, USA, EU, China, some small ones (Norway is not EU, and 22% all are cars are electric or hybdrids).

    At the current rate, electrics will overtake value of traditional auto companies, and kill them, in 2018.

    This is due to resale value of old ICE vehicels, not because all of a suddent all new cars are electrics.
    And the bond/stock market, that finances all auto companies.

    Sales projections overall.
    2016- 2-3 %
    2017- 3-4 %
    2018- 7-12 %

    As Tesla demnstrated their entry level Model 3 will be faster than a high range BMW 340, approx 55.000$.
    The tesla is 20.000$ cheaper, with no incentives.
    Safer (battery).
    Better cornering.
    Cost 1/6 in fuel, for 90% of the worlds population. ie 85% less monthly cost.

    A BMW340 / Subaru WRX STi costs about 800$ /month, EU, and 400$/month, fuel.(Used to have one. They are thirsty. Say 7 tanks).
    A Tesla M3 costs 450€/month to buy, and 56 € in fuel (7 refills of full tank/month, or 7x8€ for 60 kWH, approx).
    Electric cars = 85% cheaper to use.

    The value proposition is totally on the side of electrics.
    Hurray for Tesla engineering and (somewhat) luck on a risky strategy.

    BYD (China) is also likely to due extremely well, and tripled sales last year, doubles this year, makes more electric cars than Tesla.

    One or more of traditional auto majors will definitely die off.
    Who makes it / makes it not ?
    Dont have the faintest idea.

    So far, it looks like all the traditional auto companies will die - no serious response so far, and time is running out for them.
    They also take 4-5 years to launch a totally new vehicle, and have done nothing credible so far.

    The problems for Toyota, Volkswagen, GM et al, is that if consumers start wanting electric cars, the existing investments in plants, 10-50 billion $, and people, 800-900.000 workers will have to be mostly written off.

    They cannot do this politically,
    dont have the $$ to do so from their balance sheet,
    and the banks / wall street / bond market wont finance them if they dont pay off their current liabilities.
    Their dealers dont want them to embrace electrics - and this will kill them.

    The auto majors operate on razor thin margins, 3-5% net, and cannot afford wholesale layoffs/plant closures in a short period of time.
    My point is both technical (electrics are proven to be better, cheaper) and financial- stock market basis.

    I have no doubt any major car companies can/could technology-wise make good BEV cars re-engineering.
    But unless they do so Real Soon Now - their business is over.

    Just like IBM-PCs, Nokia-Apple, etc.

    Last comment.
    Its immaterial in business terms what US drivers (politicians, unions, dealers, workers, engineers, managers) want personally.
    If say GM cannot effectively compete worldwide, where gas still costs 7-8$/gallon, their business is over (in less than one year).

    The legacy costs of the current businesses cannot support making gas gusslers for the USA, and electrics for the rest of the world, 80+% of all auto sales in the world (approx 18M USA; 90-100M global, by 2020).

    And its the bonds/banks/credit default insurance that tips the cart over in less than one year, rather than actual delivered cars.

    If auto majors start losing sales at 5-8% per year, its over in 2-3 years to bankruptcy, unless other profits can be delivered.
    So, even a 5%-7% EV (BEV) penetration swaps the market over, effectively in the blink of an eye.

    That already happaened to the most profitable sales in the USA, large luxury cars.
    Sales dropped 10-20% for everyone else, 2015, and Tesla increased by 50%+.


    The midmarket and average sedans, avg price USA 34k$, today, will be the next step.
    Tesla committed, again, to (some) delivery late 2017.
    And they have learned from their past mistakes, with Roadster, Model S, Model X, timeframes, and hired 12.000 more (mostly high end) people since then.

    Many people here have a lot to do with the auto industry.
    Thus, some reflections may be in order.

    I am not offering specific advice.
    I am not against auto business at all, just noting that great changes will likely happen, fast.
    The new auto manufacturers will still need stuff to be made.

    Selling widgets to "marca acme " vs GM may actually be more profitable.


    Commenting on a trend that is now, inevitable, on a global scale, imho.
    And very, very fast (imo, ime) relative to market size.

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    I know I want one.

    Model 3 | Tesla Motors

    People could probably make some money by reserving one now and selling the car for more money to someone else on delivery as production on these cars is obviously not going to keep up with demand as you stated.

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    People could make money selling their place in line. The tax incentives are only good up until a certain volume of production, then they vanish. Early adopters get the incentive, so an early place in line is worth more.

    I recommended to my wife that she stop by over lunch and place a deposit. Her commute is right in the electric car sweet spot.

    Until they can pull a dual axle enclosed trailer, I'll stick with the Suburban.

    Chip

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    I think you are way over estimating the increase in electric car sales and there value, especially here in the US. There is no major expansion of electric powered vehicle production from any of the major manufactures, this includes the Asians for at least 4yrs.

    There is some implementation of hybrid technology but this is mainly in regenerative braking systems and inertia recovery. Toyota has probably been the most successful as far as market percentage with their Prius but even the Corolla gets slightly better fuel economy.

    Electric cars have some difficult challenges to meet, the first being the battery technology. There have been improvements but the existing batteries do have a limited life expectancy. This is reflected in the resale price of used electric cars.

    The other major challenge is one of basic physics. Current battery technology does not have the energy density that gasoline does. It is unlikely that this problem will be solved in the immediate future. This creates an automatic mass penalty for the electric vehicle. This is why the Corolla can get slightly better fuel economy than the Prius. We currently lack the technology to make a battery with the mass of 15gals.(60L) of gasoline and have the same amount of total energy.

    Years ago, on a visit to Argonne National Laboratory, about 1973, we talked with some research scientists about the on going research in new battery technology. At the time they did have a battery that had a promising energy mass density ratio except for one slight problem. It seemed that the battery was only stable at a very limited temperature range and any major deviation from this resulted in the battery exploding.

    The other major hurdle is that here in the US, we lack the infra-structure to support a pure electric car. Our average driving distances do not make a pure electric car practical. Until the electric car can travel 300mi. between charges and be re-charged in ten minutes with charging stations as frequent as the gasoline stations, we will not see pure electrics gain any market share beyond the current niche market.

    The Volt and Prius attempted to address the range problem with using a gas-electric solution which carries its own increased mass problem. Why have the battery, engine, and generator, when we can just do the engine and some sort of transmission. It is also important to note that the Prius and Volt also have interior room limitations, luggage, that limit their practicality in the US market.

    Tesla is making a valiant attempt, but if it were not for major government incentives, the company wouldn't have even gotten off the ground. A major portion of their income stream has been the US tax payer. Not what I would consider sustainable. Their entry into battery technology for the grid is interesting but the end costs still put the per kilowatt hr. cost at about 4-6 times grid power.

    There is a lot of reasons why the US is not embracing this new technology and these are mainly financial and practical. It will be quite a while before I will be getting excited over this technology.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    The other major hurdle is that here in the US, we lack the infra-structure to support a pure electric car. Our average driving distances do not make a pure electric car practical. Until the electric car can travel 300mi. between charges and be re-charged in ten minutes with charging stations as frequent as the gasoline stations, we will not see pure electrics gain any market share beyond the current niche market.
    Truth is the vast majority of drivers whould do just fine with an EV.
    I haven't put more than 100 miles in a day on my car in months.
    Same for my wife and most of the people I work with.

    I'd drive an ev in a heart beat, and rent a car for longer drives if needed...except I don't buy new cars.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    Tesla is making a valiant attempt, but if it were not for major government incentives, the company wouldn't have even gotten off the ground. A major portion of their income stream has been the US tax payer. Not what I would consider sustainable.
    Works great for the defense industry...and fossil fuels for that matter.

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    I'm waiting till I can buy a used one, cheap. Till then, I'll ride my bike as much as I can.

    300 miles on a fillup? I've owned ICEs that wouldn't do that. I'd be happy with an EV that has a 100 mile range.

    Neil

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    Works great for the defense industry...and fossil fuels for that matter.
    So what makes the electricity majic?

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    There is nothing particularly special, or new , or innovatory (is that a word) about Tesla cars and the technology in them. They are manufacturing by using money that has been invested in them by banks and people who believe in Elon Musk. They have yet to show any profit whatsoever from their efforts. If they cannot sell the new model in sufficient numbers, they will probably go bust in a couple of years, when the money runs out. Mr musk is diversifying into other projects to ensure his continued wealth after Tesla, should this happen.

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    In Norway (my son lives and works there) i was surprised at how many electric cars there were and Tesla definitely the most popular.

    In the larger cities cars have to pay toll to get into and out of the city. Electric cars are exempted.

    Tesla Model S now Norway'''s best-selling car, and at a higher price

    Top 5 Reasons Why Norway Has A High Standard Of Living

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    I think you are way over estimating the increase in electric car sales and there value, especially here in the US. There is no major expansion of electric powered vehicle production from any of the major manufactures, this includes the Asians for at least 4yrs.

    There is some implementation of hybrid technology but this is mainly in regenerative braking systems and inertia recovery. Toyota has probably been the most successful as far as market percentage with their Prius but even the Corolla gets slightly better fuel economy.

    Electric cars have some difficult challenges to meet, the first being the battery technology. There have been improvements but the existing batteries do have a limited life expectancy. This is reflected in the resale price of used electric cars.

    The other major challenge is one of basic physics. Current battery technology does not have the energy density that gasoline does. It is unlikely that this problem will be solved in the immediate future. This creates an automatic mass penalty for the electric vehicle. This is why the Corolla can get slightly better fuel economy than the Prius. We currently lack the technology to make a battery with the mass of 15gals.(60L) of gasoline and have the same amount of total energy.

    Years ago, on a visit to Argonne National Laboratory, about 1973, we talked with some research scientists about the on going research in new battery technology. At the time they did have a battery that had a promising energy mass density ratio except for one slight problem. It seemed that the battery was only stable at a very limited temperature range and any major deviation from this resulted in the battery exploding.

    The other major hurdle is that here in the US, we lack the infra-structure to support a pure electric car. Our average driving distances do not make a pure electric car practical. Until the electric car can travel 300mi. between charges and be re-charged in ten minutes with charging stations as frequent as the gasoline stations, we will not see pure electrics gain any market share beyond the current niche market.

    The Volt and Prius attempted to address the range problem with using a gas-electric solution which carries its own increased mass problem. Why have the battery, engine, and generator, when we can just do the engine and some sort of transmission. It is also important to note that the Prius and Volt also have interior room limitations, luggage, that limit their practicality in the US market.

    Tesla is making a valiant attempt, but if it were not for major government incentives, the company wouldn't have even gotten off the ground. A major portion of their income stream has been the US tax payer. Not what I would consider sustainable. Their entry into battery technology for the grid is interesting but the end costs still put the per kilowatt hr. cost at about 4-6 times grid power.

    There is a lot of reasons why the US is not embracing this new technology and these are mainly financial and practical. It will be quite a while before I will be getting excited over this technology.
    You have several facts wrong here. First, the Prius crushes the Corolla on fuel economy. See here and here.

    Second, this sentence is incorrect.
    Our average driving distances do not make a pure electric car practical.
    The US Census bureau says about 600,000 Americans are classified as mega-commuters. That is they commute at least 90 minutes and 50 miles each way for their job. The Tesla Model III has a standard range of at least 215 miles; more than enough for most mega-commuters who btw represent less than 2% of the US population. Every one else has less than 50 mile work commute.

    Assuming you want to talk about driving outside of work, the average US vehicle owner drives ~13,500 miles annually in the US. While I can't find per trip data, that works out to about 37 miles per day. Again, the Model III has more than enough charge.

    Lastly, while it's true that EV's, and by extension Tesla, are the beneficiaries of subsidies....it's pretty rich to say they wouldn't have gotten off the ground without major govt incentives meanwhile GM, Chrysler, and the rest of the US auto industry were the recepients of at least a 100 billion dollars in bailout money.

    Even if TSLA get the full subsidy on ~250k cars that's less than 2 Billion dollars. Add in the phase out of the Plug in Vehicle Subsidy and it will still be a rounding error to the bailout subsidies domestic automakers received. All of whom btw are eligible for the same 7500 per vehicle credit Tesla buyers receive. In fact, GM has sold right at 100k cars that qualified for the subisdy whilst TSLA is only at about 50k domestically. Again GM with twice the 'subisdy' currently.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chip Chester View Post
    People could make money selling their place in line.
    Based on available information, places in line are registered to the individual and non-transferable. Yesterday people waiting in line were allowed to reserve up to 2 Model III's but each one had to be reserved in a different persons name. It's extremely unlikely one will be able to 'sell their place in line'.
    The tax incentives are only good up until a certain volume of production, then they vanish. Early adopters get the incentive, so an early place in line is worth more.

    I recommended to my wife that she stop by over lunch and place a deposit. Her commute is right in the electric car sweet spot.

    Until they can pull a dual axle enclosed trailer, I'll stick with the Suburban.

    Chip
    That's not exactly how they work. IRS link here. The quarter in which the 200kth car is delivered the subsidy remains in effect for the rest of the quarter AND the entirety of the following quarter. The following 2 quarters all cars delivered are eligible for 50% subsidy; the next 2 quarters 25%.

    So a lot more than 200k cars will get the full 7500. Depending on specific timing of production ramping (as TSLA should meet 200k delivery right after Model III delivery -assuming no delays, which ummm is a big assumption given TSLA and Elon's track record) an equal number of deliveries could receive partial subsides.

    It's also worth noting the credit can only deduct from tax liablity incurred; i.e. you don't get the full 7500 unless you paid in at least 7500 in the calendar year you take delivery.

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    Lastly, for the naysayers that say TSLA will be just a boutique car company....hanermo has the right of it. Look at what TSLA has done the the US luxury car market in just a few short years. It's a complete bloodbath for the rest of the automakers.

    Expect the same for the mid luxury market when the Model III delivers. In 2014 Lexus, Mercedes, and BMW combined for about 190k delivereies in the US. Tesla took pre-orders for 198k in less than 30 hours (~8.5 billion $) for a car that won't be release for two years. It's going to go bad for mid market sedan manufacturers.

    Add in the fact that MobilEye has all but confirmed that Tesla will be pushing a new Auto Pilot hardware suite into production as early as 2016, despite the fact they already had the industry best autopilot....and things could get nasty fast for the old line automakers.

    The only long term question is battery cost. Tesla has to match its hype with the Gigafactory and get batteries near the 100$/kwh mark or things get much harder in the mid luxury sedan market.

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    It is kind of amazing that last year, Tesla sold more luxury cars in the US than Mercedes, or Audi, or BMW, and that it sold 1/4 of all the luxury cars in its segment.

    I think one thing that many people forget is that, once you get over fifty grand or so for a car, you dont really care if its practical, or what the resale value is going to be, or what a replacement battery will cost. People in the fifty to one fifty range buy new cars WHEN THEY WANT TO.
    And they buy cars because they like them.

    They dont nurse 200k out of em very often.

    So many of the considerations that apply for a 18k econobox are completely irrelevant in the category where the Tesla S is kicking Audi, BMW, Cadillac, and Mercedes butt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    It is kind of amazing that last year, Tesla sold more luxury cars in the US than Mercedes, or Audi, or BMW, and that it sold 1/4 of all the luxury cars in its segment.
    Ok, so now I would like to ask you a simple question.
    Forget Merc, BMW, Lexus, or any other brands, and let's just focus on Audi alone shall we?

    Which Audi model in their lineup would you consider Luxury?

    And can you show any actual Tesla figures from 2015?

    To date everything Google brings up is some blurb from the very same source, and even it makes the disclaimer that sales figures are estimated as Tesla
    does not disclose annual volumes.

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    Looks like Apple is going to buy Tesla. Apple has gobs of extra $ and Tesla is a bit short they say. This match gives Tesla access to Apple's Graphene based Ultracapactitors rather than the Lithium ion battery for extended range and faster recharge

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    Tesla very much discloses annual figures worldwide, and US figures.
    Its in the official stock market reports, filed with the SEC, and online, free.

    Tesla sold about 50.500 cars overall, 2015. == 50% yr/yr increase, since 2012. Every yr.
    And now, 2016, and 2017 and 2018 looks increasingly sold-out as well.

    The US accounts for about half, IIRC and this % will start to decline, as they now open new markets, 7 new markets set open over the next 2 years.

    They made about 900 M$ in profits, and invested about 2.4 billion.
    Tesla is just about the most profitable car company in the world, bar Porsche, whose margins are similar, about 20-25%.

    Tesla invested about 900 M in R&D, and similar amounts in new plants, PPE.
    Most of the investment scales up like a sw company, which is why their profit margin keeps climbing.

    Examples:
    They built a paint line for 500.000 cars, 3 years ago. While manufacturing 50.000 /year.
    They built a stamping line for 500.000 cars, 1-2 years ago. While manufacturing 50.000 /year.
    They built their factory for new production lines, for new models, next being the model 3.

    Example:
    Tesla are network-centric and IT centric.
    E.g.
    They only need to develop one autopilot, and the sw is paid for once, but then deployed to Model S, Model X, Model3, and later to model Y, new roadster, et al..
    Same for superchargers.

    Re: batteries.

    Tesla batteries degrade about 1% y/y.
    After 10 years, about 90% of the battery is still there.
    They do not degrade fast over time.

    Reasons:
    1.
    The batteries are large vs usage.
    Thus they are shallow cycled.
    This leads to potential 15-20 year lifetimes, in practical everyday use.

    Thus a 20-30 kW battery will "die" fast, but a 70-90 kW battery will last 3-5-10 times longer.

    2. Active thermal conditioning.
    The batteries have heaters and coolers, and are kept between 28-29C, while in use or charging.

    3. Chemistry.
    The specific, secret sauce in 18650-C, the C version is a Tesla-proprietary chemistry developed with Panasonic.
    It is not available to other clients.

    Last version -C came out about 2014, and the new version in Model 3 is likely better, given 70.000 vehicles x 4 years => 280.000 years-in-use experience.
    Its likely the new M3 uses 27100 cells.
    This leads to 30% less cells, about 4500 vs 7000 in Model S.

    Expected capex is 1.5 billion this yr (per annual filing) vs 2.4 billion in 2015.
    They will likely sell about 80.000 cars this year, 60% y/y increase.

    (Reason: New publicity with M3, and credible M3, will raise awareness. => More news => more sales, worldwide.
    Better executon in china and germany. New markets.
    80.000 is my estimate, at the upper end of their guidance. They would sell 100.000 if they could deliver internationally, but the wait times are too long, 3-6 months.)

    At 51.000 cars => 900 M profits (2015), so in 2016 translates to about 1.4 billion in profits.
    Thus, their expected GAAP profitability in 4Q 2016, seems likely.

    Battery costs are already a non-issue, based on economics.
    The est. 60 kWh battery in M3 is maybe 100$ => 6000 $ cell cost => 75000 pack cost, 2017.

    I can buy cells at 200-300 $/kWh, now, online (branded original units).
    I suspect for billion unit quantity I could get them at 120-150$.
    Next year, 2017, 100$ or less.
    Tesla expects 54$ at some point, around 2020 or so.

    Avg driving distance per day is 34 miles, USA.
    99% of all charging is at home, and consumer satisfaction is vastly higher for Teslas, *than any other car in history*.

    Last year about 500.000 electric cars were sold, and this year, perhaps one million, or 1.2%, worldwide, and 2-4% in actual markets where they are sold.

    The things Tesla has done that are innovative, and what they built, first:
    1. Supercharging.
    2. Specific car-battery lion chemistry.
    3. Skateboard-design in BEV cars. (Center of gravity, handling, safety).
    4. Active thermal management, and scalable, high density, cheap batteries via economies of scale by using consumer-packaged cells.
    (Allows using cheap AND high-density battery chemistry).
    5. High-capacity batteries in BEV.
    6. Autopilot with hyper-resolution improving mapping via cars sensors.
    7. Network and IT centric cars, in constant communication with central servers.
    8. Dealerless internet-centric model.
    9. OTA upgrades.
    10. Increasing old-model resale value by continuous sw feature improvements, free.
    Is only possible due to (8).

    As in something that is available for sale to the public, and works extremely well.
    None of the 10. has been done by anyone else, yet- 4 years later.
    None.

    I am not a "fanboy" and think they took huge unwarranted risks, and mostly due to luck, and partly due to the fact that Musk is an extremely good crisis manager (if not, perhaps, day-to-day general manager.
    Its perhaps also true that only that type of personality could have done all this, *in this timeframe*).

    Mistakes:
    Battery swaps. (In honesty, they did not really want to do this, afaik, and government incentives pushed them into this).
    Timing. Always late.
    Costs. They always bet the house. They won, but that was not entirely due to them, and it could have gone otherwise.
    Communications with delays. Very poor PR and communication with clients, who had paid for and expected to be told something.
    Model X. Technical execution, gimmicks. Too many new untested features.
    Falcon wing doors.

    What they did really well.
    Scaling.
    Gigafactory.
    Vertically integrated. Much better model for profit %. (Much harder to do- as they learned. Slow to start vs buying from suppliers).
    Ignoring how other auto companies do things.

    Quote Originally Posted by SeymourDumore View Post
    And can you show any actual Tesla figures from 2015?

    To date everything Google brings up is some blurb from the very same source, and even it makes the disclaimer that sales figures are estimated as Tesla
    does not disclose annual volumes.

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    Default Electric-grid etc. and other myths

    Grid:
    90% or so of the grid is not used, at night, worldwide.

    With zero improvements, current US electric grid can charge 80% of all miles driven annually in the US.
    If we take out (heavy) trucks, its probably closer to 90%.

    The electric utilities will be Very Happy, if they can triple total kW consumed, with near-zero new investments.
    The is Very-high-margin marginal sales, with low COGS and high profitability.

    In a competitive industry (electric utitlities are not free market.) prices would go down.

    Grid upggrades:
    In any case, by the time 80% of all miles are electrically charged, the 10% grid upgrades will have been done.
    And yes, it will likely take 10 years.
    Its also highly profitable to the electric utilities, as new infrastructure is cheaper to make (electrics and electronis) than the 40-50 year-old stuff.


    Lithium:
    Lithium is not particularly toxic.

    Its "mined" by evaporating brines aka seawater.
    Most reserves and production is in chile et al in the high mountains altiplano regions.
    So much is being produced, prices are going down.
    This is likely to increase.
    Spot shortages are of course possible.

    Lithium is iirc the 4th most abundant material in the world.
    A Tesla uses about 18 kg of lithium per car, and its 100% recyclable.


    Electric cars use dirty electricity and are not clean or green:
    Its about 4-5 times more efficient to use central generation vs movable, non-combined cycle, tiny, power plants aka internal-combustion engines.
    US energy from coal is == 30% now, and about 0% 5-10 years from now.
    This greatly reduces healthcare costs, more than is lost via dirty-coal jobs.

    It IS true that a lot of the rest comes from natgas.
    Its also true that 60%, increasing fast, of all new energy is 100% green PV and wind, in the US and worldwide.
    Wind and PV cost about 2-4 cents per kWh, and this cost decreases yearly.


    Batteries are too heavy:

    An electric car uses regen to re-capture the energy on braking.
    About 80% is recovered.
    Thats why the brake pads may last a million miles, and are a very low wear item.

    Lighter batteries would be better, but this is not a particularly important feature, at the moment.

    Cons:
    Energy density (vs cost) is critical.
    Today, the Tesla as market leader is == 230 kWh / kg.
    The new model, maybe 350 kWh/kg.

    At 350- 400 kWh/kg all vans and light trucks go electric.
    At 500 kWh/kg, short haul aeroplanes and some heavy trucks go electric.

    This is likely 2020 or so.

    So yes, heavy trucking will go electric about 2020 or so.
    My estimate.

    Vans, will go electric about 1-3 years from now, once someone makes tesla type vans at the same price point as current ones, and 200-300 km range.
    My estimate.

    All fleets will go 100% electric, where its 80% cheaper to use electric vans, ie 80-90% of the world.
    All of the EU is a good market and example.

    If a fleet van costs 500€/month to use on ICE, and an electric costs 80€/month, its obvious what someone will buy.
    Once one operator does this, all competitors will quickly do the same, or go bust due to not being competitive in the marketplace.

    And the US too, if long range vans are at the same price point as current ones.
    Cost of operation in commercial use is critical.
    Barrier to switching is very low, if the economic justification is there.

    Batteries need the same energy density as gas/diesel:
    Well, yes and no.
    An ICE loses about 2/3 of the energy produced. Most is noise and heat/friction and converting gas to particulates.
    Yet, gas has about 10.000 kWh/kg, and a Tesla 230 hWh/kg.

    So, a car gets 3000 kWh out of 1 kg, and a Tesla 230.
    13:1 difference.


    A diesel car (Nissan Qashqai crossover, 5(7) seats, 1500 kg vs Model S).
    Has about 65 l/60 kg of diesel, and a 700 km range. 11.6 km/kg.
    A Tesla gets == 400 km out of 500 kg of battery. 0.8 km/kg.
    1:14.5 difference.

    BUT..
    I fill in the Nissan once a month (1.2 times) == 1000 km / month use.
    15 minutes at gas station with lines, cashiers etc (Spain, in the northern EU I could just pay by CC).

    With a Model S I would need to plug in 2.5 times per month, at home, 10 seconds, +10 to unplug.
    Time advantage to Tesla, 15:1.
    Cost advantage to electric car, 6:1.
    70 kWh x 0.12€ cents = 8.40.
    65 l diesel, at 1.06 €/l, = 68.9 €.

    With the shorter range of the 70 kWh, the final cost benefit is 5:1 or 80% savings, or so, with typical fuel prices of 1.2€/l.

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    Default Lion myths - part 2 (+ Tesla valuation)

    Batteries will never be good enough:
    Batteries are already more than good enough, as both Tesla and BYD and about 200 new startups have proven and are proving.

    Li-air batteries have 13.000 kWh/kg energy densities (not in production, 10 years out, maybe).
    Practical demos of 3000 kWh/kg batteries exist (but their lifetime is short).

    Current 350 kWh/kg being made now, ie next gen lithium batteries, are over the corner case and make cheap practical electric cars a given.
    Not just my opinion, but the current actual sales trend in 30+ countries worldwide.
    And about 500.000 sales, 2015, == 1.000.000 to be sold in 2016.

    The cost/lifetime/packaging/gravimetric energy density equation has already been solved.

    Systems integration on new BEV cars of the Tesla-type, from a bewildering array of startups, many with lots of $$, is ongoing and no-one knows who will win, and how much.

    Tesla as auto major:
    In the marketplace, it seeems likely Tesla will be one of the auto majors, by 2022, 6 years from now.
    It also seems a given that many new startups will also sell lots of BEV cars, but its likely most of these will then fail, over time.

    If the market rewards Teslas performance as I expect, by 2018 they will have enough cash, skills and experience to simultaneously start new gigafactories in the EU and in china, and their production numbers can jump 10-fold in 2 years.

    Reasoning:
    350-400 stock price in 2018, with 20 billion revenue, and a new 4 billion offering, and 4 b /yr in profits.
    Tesla has already sold the cars for 2018, 230.000 sold in 2 days, for about 7.5 B in new revenue 2017/2018.
    This would seem to be 80% likely, maybe maybe with a potential 1-2 year delay.

    At 1 M cars by 2020, 1.5 by 2021, 2.2 by 2022, they might start to count as a major, no ?

    Given that the cash is now pouring in, as I forecast october/november/december 2015, I think their success is now inevitable.
    A major recall/safety problem is about the only risk they have, imho.

    They seem to be getting in about 100M/day of cash from preorders, and its quite likely they may be able to become profitable this year.
    A less likely corner case is 1M preorders, and 1 billion cash, to accelerate the process.

    Lion energy business:
    All above assumes the energy business never amounts to anything significant.
    It may, or may not, and the needed ingredient is battery cost/longevity.

    If they get the 50$/kWh battery cost, then all bets are off, and the energy business will be much bigger than the auto business.
    At 50 kWh cell cost, energy storage is a runaway success for utility sales, as its cheaper than peaker plants, and can do practical PV storage.
    Off-grid also becomes eminently practical, and cost effective, as does electric yachts/boats, with 100-500-1000 kWH storage.

    Sadly, I am not invested in Tesla.
    I was not following them at all 2012,2013, and thus missed the opportunity.

    Their very heavy risks re: technical choices, and low cash, and overtly high valuation, meant it did not make financial sense from a stock-market perspective to run the risks, at the time.

    No-one knew they would get so many preorders.
    I though they might, but the valuation was already very high.
    It is of coursepossible they get a sky high valuation in the next short timeframe, but the market has more money than me.

    Ie Tesla is worth 30 billion based on 2018 sales at 20 billion (3x from now). This now seems likely. But thats the current valuation already.
    Is there a 100% upside possibility , 230-460 stock price ?
    Is it worth 60 billion ?
    Maybe.
    Will they triple 2018-2022 to 180 billion?
    Maybe.
    If they get the batteries first, absolutely yes.

    Macro effects means its hard to predict, you know, the future.

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    Default

    What gives me a heartache about electric cars are the rare-earth elements in the motors and generators.
    Yes, they’re already in motors and generators since years. It’s a mess in the class of Fukushima.

    Why not spring driven cars? Four springs make 2.4 miles, calculated very conservatively. Energy can be
    injected in the springs any time, on the way, say by pedalling. At any of, say, four seats. The car weighs
    1000 lbs. Eight springs, each two coupled to a package, make the car run for five miles on a wind. Feasible

    Spring steel, running barrels, a sturdy frame, gear train, governor, clutch, and brakes with wind-coupling.
    And a remaining tension indicator visible from all seats

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