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  1. #21
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    savman, thanks for that post. I hadn't taken the time to look at the IRS details -- been focused on other IRS details.

    And re: selling place in line... I imagine we'll see flippers, who complete the sale then turn around and sell the car immediately.

    Chip

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    What makes this such a giant April fools joke is

    There is no type 3 car

    There is no giga factory

    The little south African con artist can't raise money in the conventional manner to do these

    So he has resorted to taking deposits on a fucking pipe dream.

    Also highering the greatest spin doctors known to man and aggressively sueing anybody that dares to

    Criticize his pipe dreams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeymourDumore View Post
    Ok, so now I would like to ask you a simple question.
    Forget Merc, BMW, Lexus, or any other brands, and let's just focus on Audi alone shall we?

    Which Audi model in their lineup would you consider Luxury?

    And can you show any actual Tesla figures from 2015?

    To date everything Google brings up is some blurb from the very same source, and even it makes the disclaimer that sales figures are estimated as Tesla
    does not disclose annual volumes.

    I am going by the link that savman posted-
    #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (215 Sales Comparison) | CleanTechnica

    which is saying that Audi A7's and A8's are roughly equivalent to Tesla Model S.
    And, as Hanermo says above, it is possible to find multiple sources on the web that all agree Tesla sold around 25,000 Model S's last year in the USA.

    The Audi figures on his link are easily verified, plus or minus a hundred or two, on many different auto industry tracking websites.
    There isnt much doubt that Audi really did sell around 12,000 of those two models last year.

    Do I KNOW, absolutely without a doubt that Tesla sold more Model S's than their competitors- no, but I can find enough independent numbers on line that I believe its true.

    I know I see more and more of em around, all the time. They are definitely selling em around here.

  5. #24
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    People tend to hate or love EVs.
    Not much in between where perhaps the truth lies.
    I would not bet the family farm on Tesla at this point and would not count out the other auto makers as "understanding" this market and not showing their hands yet.
    I'm of the "old" auto world. A market that over years sucks more money from the consumer over a lifetime than most any other.
    Given enough time my opinion is that EVs will be the standard. This may be a very long time down the road and it looks now to be generations if not more.
    Oil needs to get expensive, electricity needs to get cheap, electric storage needs some jumps. These will happen.
    Right now big SUV gas guzzler sales are soaring. Those that bet on econ-cars of any type are hurting bad.
    One should not thing lines of "early-adopters" mean long term results as nice as it may seem today.
    At this point kind of a "fad" car. Do you or know others that own a "pet rock", "beanie baby"?

    If you do feel sure down in your gut go for it. Place your money where your mouth is.
    Take all your money, finance your house, borrow all on credit cards that you can, and buy in.
    Done right on IBM, Xerox, Microsoft, Dell, Apple you will come out smiling.

    I'm still in the maybe, perhaps long shot column.
    Bob

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  7. #25
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    There are no rare earth motors in Tesla cars.

    Its a good 3-phase motor with VFD.

    Lithium in batteries is not a rare earth, its abundant.

    Rare earths are used in servos and steppers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mechanola View Post
    What gives me a heartache about electric cars are the rare-earth elements in the motors and generators.
    Yes, they’re already in motors and generators since years. It’s a mess in the class of Fukushima.

  8. #26
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    1.
    Agree 100%.
    Did not bet the farm for financial risk/rewards reasons.

    2.
    Old auto has proven they are clueless.
    So did IBM.
    To did Tandy, Wang, commodore, et al.

    3.
    Like I said, game over is 3 years.

    The exact same trend happened in PV, that I was in, 6 years ago.
    Game is over, PV won.
    60%, today, of all new power is PV (wind).
    Globally.

    Your reservations are totally true, and prudent, and correct, imho, in a linear-scaling business-as-usual world.
    But, today, financial markets fuel any expansion at an exponential pace.

    Examples, in chronological order.
    Intel, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Uber, Tesla.

    An exponential improvement in batteries, as now, 9% y/y (last 10-15 years), is == 100% every 5 years.
    This the the very low end, that approx 90% of all technology-analysers know has almost always been surpassed, if $$ is available.

    Today, 1 billion $$/yr or more is spent on (better-lion-type) battery research.
    Tesla is the biggest user and researcher of this in the world, and has more experience in use than any company on earth, for over 6 years (doing it 12 years, but big for 5-6).

    Does not mean someone else may not find a better battery.
    Their first, and likely only, customer will be Tesla, because of $$$.
    BYD is nr 2.

    Third place is maybe 50% of the size, Nissan Leaf, ie Tesla and BYD are 5 times more important, with 100x more growth plans in place, and credible demonstrated execution over many years.
    Leaf has sold 200.000+ x (==) 24 kW = 4.8 GW, lifetime.
    Tesla, lifetime, approx 100k, at 80 kW, = 8 GW.
    Tesla, 80-100k, 80 kW avg. == 9 GW this year.

    Ie Tesla will sell 200% more GWh this year than Nissan has done in 6 years (Tesla lifetime total == 270% more).
    That is why looking at exponential numbers/trends is critical.

    BYD is doing a 5 GWh factory this year, and I think another next year.





    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    1.
    I would not bet the family farm on Tesla at this point

    2.
    ... and would not count out the other auto makers as "understanding" this market and not showing their hands yet.

    I'm of the "old" auto world. A market that over years sucks more money from the consumer over a lifetime than most any other.
    Given enough time my opinion is that EVs will be the standard.

    3.
    This may be a very long time down the road and it looks now to be generations if not more.

  9. #27
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    Scottl - You were right on the variance - I was wrong on demand variable.
    Its a good point - as an analyst following PV and power markets worldwide, I rely on graphs published by all power utilities.
    Sometimes, I mix/match with errors.
    Mia culpa.


    The variance is 1:2 - to 1:10 (typical US household).
    Still the actual power capacity output, analysed as kWh available from current grid, is still 80%, for total US miles driven.
    This is an integral of grid capacity vs miles driven / 300 W/km driven, typical Tesla consumption.

    Conclusion and data stands, but variance for all usa is much less.
    Good catch.

    1:10 Power use difference / 24 hours.
    Why Expanded Alternative Energy Increases the Need for Natural Gas

    (Only) Us peak is household-driven.
    Global is business/industry driven.
    Us peak is evening, global peak is == 10 am.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post

    Hanermo, I think you are grossly underestimating electric usage at night in the USA. You should see how lit up not only Boston but many smaller communities are after dark as people go forth to shop, play, and dine out.

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    I know a couple people with EVs. They don't seem happy. Problem is they have some advertised range, but here it gets cold outside and you might want heat in the car. Turn on the heat and the range drops to about 1/3 of advertised (so the owners say). So the driver is often freezing his or her butt off trying to make sure they can get home without running out of charge. How can we get a realistic idea of range? Same would be true in hotter climates where you might want AC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post

    3.
    Like I said, game over is 3 years.
    .
    Good that you think so, not so much me.
    I will take that bet publicly right now, $1000 US currency paid to your paypal account.
    Today is April 2nd 2016. 3 years and I say EV is still under the radar and does not rule the marketplace.
    We can let the others here decide on win/loose.
    Ante up?............ Come on. It will be all just fun and not that big of a bet. Maybe less or other terms?
    I've been a big fan of alternative energy, recycle and green since the 70's when my friends and I made the front page of the local newspaper on the first earth day
    Just gotten used to reality since then.

    So heh, just for fun, shits and giggles where this amount is for both of us is no biggie as I get your and my posts here. ...... Where do you really stand?
    Bob
    Last edited by CarbideBob; 04-02-2016 at 06:43 PM.

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    So these new fangled electric cars. Will I get 800km out of a tank of fuel and only take a few minutes to fill up?

    Can I take spare fuel with me?

    Will I get a couple of hundred thousand miles without any major issues?

    Will it last thirty years with essentially no issues?

    Essentially, will it be like a diesel powered vehicle made in the 1990's before everything became electronically controlled and highly unreliable in the long term compared to all mechanical designs.

  16. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by RC99 View Post
    So these new fangled electric cars. Will I get 800km out of a tank of fuel and only take a few minutes to fill up?

    Can I take spare fuel with me?

    Will I get a couple of hundred thousand miles without any major issues?

    Will it last thirty years with essentially no issues?

    Essentially, will it be like a diesel powered vehicle made in the 1990's before everything became electronically controlled and highly unreliable in the long term compared to all mechanical designs.

    You are showing your age. (which is probably pretty similar to mine- I spent my youth in the gutter fixing 50s and 60s cars).
    Nobody has made cars that will last thirty years with essentially no issues for at least thirty years.
    The have this thing called "value engineering".
    It means they make the most money possible, and the car falls apart when the warranty expires.
    The average car in the USA is junked at around 7 years, a few make it to 10.
    Lots of them are traded in at 3 years.
    The automakers know this, and 3 years is the target. Beyond that, there are diminishing returns in spending more to make a car higher quality.
    Its all about the bottom line.

    A couple hundred miles with no major issues- yes.
    I have gotten 200k miles out of 4 Hondas in the last ten years, with the biggest expense being brake pads or a battery.
    Modern cars will mostly do 200k without ever taking the head off, on the original alternator and starter, in my experience.
    I havent had a tranny rebuilt on any car newer than my 1960s Fords.

    But you have to remember- this is a LUXURY car for the upper middle class.
    It was not ever designed for the outback.

    The Model S has a nominal list price of $70,000 USD.
    Virtually nobody buys a base model.
    Estimates are the Average price out the door for a Model S is $100k USD.

    The new Model 3 has a nominal base price of $35,000.
    this means that the vast majority of them will sell at prices between $45,000 and $60,000, USD, when you add the AWD option, the extended range battery, the custom leather interior, and so on.

    This car is not meant to compete with sport utes, or diesel pickups- its aimed smack dab at BMW 5 series, the medium sized Mercs, and Audi A4's. All of which are in the same $40 to $60 price range.

    Nobody that is considering a $22k Toyota, and is worried about carrying extra gas cans, is ever going to even look at these.
    When people shop for cars, they set their price range, and "luxury quotient", and look at comparably priced cars with similar features.

    The price range these will sell at is a sweet spot for auto makers- they make big profits on them, but its still a huge market segment, with millions and millions of cars in this range sold every year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by adh2000 View Post
    I know a couple people with EVs. They don't seem happy. Problem is they have some advertised range, but here it gets cold outside and you might want heat in the car. Turn on the heat and the range drops to about 1/3 of advertised (so the owners say). So the driver is often freezing his or her butt off trying to make sure they can get home without running out of charge. How can we get a realistic idea of range? Same would be true in hotter climates where you might want AC.
    The one guy I know with an electric (Tesla) is rabidly 100% happy. But, I suspect most folks who drop $80k on any sort of fancy-pants car, electric or not, will think a lot of it.

    Good point about climate being a factor. My Camry hybrid gets 37 MPG in winter and 40 MPG spring - fall. Surely pure electric have the same issue. Don't know about very hot. It only gets 90-95F tops here.

    My GMC Yukon gets a steady 14 MPG, no matter the season .

    Regards.

    Mike

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    Quote Originally Posted by RC99 View Post
    So these new fangled electric cars. Will I get 800km out of a tank of fuel and only take a few minutes to fill up?

    Can I take spare fuel with me?

    Will I get a couple of hundred thousand miles without any major issues?

    Will it last thirty years with essentially no issues?

    Essentially, will it be like a diesel powered vehicle made in the 1990's before everything became electronically controlled and highly unreliable in the long term compared to all mechanical designs.
    I remember pre 80s cars...give a these a few decades.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeymourDumore View Post
    Ok, so now I would like to ask you a simple question.
    Forget Merc, BMW, Lexus, or any other brands, and let's just focus on Audi alone shall we?

    Which Audi model in their lineup would you consider Luxury?

    And can you show any actual Tesla figures from 2015?

    To date everything Google brings up is some blurb from the very same source, and even it makes the disclaimer that sales figures are estimated as Tesla
    does not disclose annual volumes.
    Grunching here, but TSLA absolutely discloses deliveries by quarter, as any publicly traded company does. As to your skepticism in 2015....iirc TSLA delivered a little more than 50k vehicles in 2015; greater than a 50% increase from ~32k in 2014.

    TSLA is issuing guidance for an additional 50% increase in 2016 deliveries at around 80k. TSLA should grow at 50% annual for a few years. Absolutely an absurd figure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by adh2000 View Post
    I know a couple people with EVs. They don't seem happy. Problem is they have some advertised range, but here it gets cold outside and you might want heat in the car. Turn on the heat and the range drops to about 1/3 of advertised (so the owners say). So the driver is often freezing his or her butt off trying to make sure they can get home without running out of charge. How can we get a realistic idea of range? Same would be true in hotter climates where you might want AC.
    If a person in a LEAF turns on the heat that will have a lot bigger affect on range, as a percentage of advertised, than a Tesla. The LEAF has a 30kwh battery (the Volt has something similarly small) whereas the Model S comes standard with 70kwh, and most people upgrade to 80kwh+. It still takes so many watts to heat a car regardless of battery size.

    eta: I have seen reports of range loss on the order 25-30% in the Model S in 'cold weather'. No real data other than forum posts on Tesla Motors Club to back that up.

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    I recently read, I think in Motor Trend or another similar magazine, that Tesla doesn't sell parts for their cars, or support salvage titled cars. Is this true? As a 'shade tree' mechanic, I would wonder about parts cost & availability, as well as tech support. Does Tesla have a Chilton/Haynes manual or the equivalent? I've read that they've released their patents to the public, but good luck deciphering that kind of thing to affect any kind of basic repair.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RC99 View Post
    So these new fangled electric cars. Will I get 800km out of a tank of fuel and only take a few minutes to fill up?

    Can I take spare fuel with me?

    Will I get a couple of hundred thousand miles without any major issues?

    Will it last thirty years with essentially no issues?

    Essentially, will it be like a diesel powered vehicle made in the 1990's before everything became electronically controlled and highly unreliable in the long term compared to all mechanical designs.
    I often wonder how many buy their car with their heart rather than their head.

    Short trips vs long trips.
    City vs out in the country.
    Driving alone vs large family
    Need for large trunk space vs a few groceries etc.

    One of my friends has just bought a large Honda 4WD (in flat Denmark!) and I know he only drives short trips and never leaves Denmark. When I asked why he bought it his reply was "I wanted one".

    His money and his choice but I just don't get it.

    Changing subject then with the price of gas in Europe then the focus on fuel efficency etc. is becoming more and more a factor.

  23. #38
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    You make an excellent point.
    I must respectfully decline the bet..
    (In this case, I would not enjoy winning or losing it.)
    but we hope to be around and look at the SOTA in 2018.

    And the valuations of the top 5 auto majors, in 2018.
    And how much of their focus is on electrics, in 2018.

    My prediction, to be clear.
    During 2018, auto stuff pivots to electrics as the nr1 product, and
    one or more auto majors will "dig in and break their tools".

    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Good that you think so, not so much me.
    I will take that bet publicly right now, $1000 US currency paid to your paypal account.
    Today is April 2nd 2016. 3 years and I say EV is still under the radar and does not rule the marketplace.

  24. #39
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    Parts are sold.
    Salvaged cars are not supported (unless checked by Tesla).
    Re-sale value is high, atm.

    Can you work on 400V, 1000 amps power circuits and amps ?
    Can you program a VFD, debug canbus stuff, debug IT stuff ?

    People have done this, with no assistance from Tesla.
    I dont know how apart from the network/IT stuff, but could learn , if I wanted to.

    Current Teslas (S,X) have potential long lifespans, due to electric motors, and alu body.
    This may not have economic effects.
    Too soon to tell.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gewehr 98 View Post
    I recently read, I think in Motor Trend or another similar magazine, that Tesla doesn't sell parts for their cars, or support salvage titled cars. Is this true?

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    1.
    No.
    500 km range.
    It takes 10 seconds to fuel up, you plug in overnight, at 80% cost savings.

    2.
    No.
    The spare fuel is waiting for you, everywhere with an electric outlet.

    3.
    No.
    Eventually, 2-5x more than any current production car.
    The first models are unlikely to have no issues, as there is/was not yet enough experience, when the Model S design was frozen, 4 years ago.
    Thus, current cars are maybe a bit better than ICE cars, but not much.
    Likely, from 2019 onwards, the electrics will have superior maintenance costs.

    No oil or filter changes, ever, brake pads last 1 million miles or so, drivetrains last one million miles or so.

    This is driven by Tesla, alone, as they want to make the best product, and make no money on warranties or rework.
    Everyone else will need to adobt the same model to compete.

    Thus, Tesla is killing the repair market, relatively quickly.
    Effects will start to be seen circa 2022, when the first volume Model S (2013) start to be out of warranty (8 years) in 2021.

    4.
    Eventually, yes, if it makes (economic) sense.

    5.
    The current cars are vastly more reliable than the old ones, per system.
    But, they have 50x more systems, so something is always broke on old new cars.
    The 1990s cars did not have the features to begin with.

    Avg lifetime of cars, today, is 11 years, until they are junked.

    Its an economic non-technical choice.
    Since work hours are expensive, its cheaper to get a newer running car, either new, semi-new, or used.

    Quote Originally Posted by RC99 View Post
    1.
    So these new fangled electric cars. Will I get 800km out of a tank of fuel and only take a few minutes to fill up?

    2.
    Can I take spare fuel with me?

    3.
    Will I get a couple of hundred thousand miles without any major issues?

    4.
    Will it last thirty years with essentially no issues?

    5.
    Essentially, will it be like a diesel powered vehicle made in the 1990's before everything became electronically controlled and highly unreliable in the long term compared to all mechanical designs.


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