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    Default The rise and fall of the eu

    This post will be a mixture of facts and personal opinions. I believe the EU was originally started to make trade between countries in Europe easier. What it has since become becomes less and less what the populations of the individual citizens in each country want but this seems to have been continually ignored by politicians and bureaucrats working within the union. It seems to have been overlooked that the U in EU stands for Union and not United.

    The goal for the fast couple of decades seems to have been a United States of Europe with a central administration continuously overriding the laws of the individual member countries.
    The EU was not always as big as it is today. When European countries started to cooperate economically in 1951, only Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands participated.

    Over time, more and more countries decided to join and were allowed to do so. The current size is 28 member countries with the accession of Croatia on 1 July 2013.
    At present the total population of the EU is 510,000,000 and the total population of Europe is 739,000,000.

    With Brexit the UK will leave the EU and the populations of several other EU countries have expressed that they are thinking about doing the same. The common denominator IMO seems to be that many are just sick fed up with more and more being decided by EU parliament and EU bureaucrats. The more "united" politicians seem to want Europe to become the more divided it gets. I doubt if there was a public vote that the majority would vote to give up the sovereignty of their country as seems to be the EU goal. the single currency (Euro €) was also a nice thought - in theory. Seems to be a disaster in reality. I don't think many citizens in the non Euro countries realise that by EU law they will in a few years be forced to have the Euro as their currency. That certainly won't go down well.

    I don't see how it can be done but the only way IMO the EU can survive is to go back to the stage where it was about mutual cooperation to facilitate trade. Trying to unite European countries each with their own language and culture is a lost cause.

    I'm thinking it but trying to avoid writing it but there seems to be many parallels between the situation of the USA today and what the EU has become. The EU parliament is out of touch with what voters want and they are both angry and frustrated at being overlooked.

    I don't know how relevant this is but wages and perks given to EU politicians and bureaucrats are much higher and better than what they could hope for if working in their own country. They most certainly will fight to keep their privileges.

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    Crude analogy, but get 4 of your best friends. Put all of your savings in one bank account and work out an agreement on how each of you are allowed to spend that money. See how long before you are at each others throat. Also Currency value is a major tool in controlling a countries economy. They all lost this tool by becoming a Euro member and adopting the Euro. Germany wants the currency with a certain value and I am sure Greece want a totaly different value. This is why Poland never adopted the Euro and seem to be doing better than many other countries.

    Just my 2 cents, im a simple machinist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fmari --MariTool- View Post
    Currency value is a major tool in controlling a countries economy. They all lost this tool by becoming a Euro member and adopting the Euro. Germany wants the currency with a certain value and I am sure Greece want a totaly different value. This is why Poland never adopted the Euro and seem to be doing better than many other countries.
    Not sure if I completely understand your post.

    Only 19 of the 28 countries have the Euro. As to your reason for why "Poland never adopted the Euro" I disagree. Changing Polish governments have never agreed on this. Several other former East European countries are doing just as well (a couple better) than Poland even although they have the Euro.

    Many Poles travel to other countries and make much more than they would if they stayed at home. They do excellent work and many work here. Two of my new neighbours had Polish workers build their houses. Excellent workmanship and they were willing to even work weekends.

    I do agree that the Euro does give a problem but IMO the reason is more because of how well each country does economically and how honest their governments are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    The common denominator IMO seems to be that many are just sick fed up with more and more being decided by EU parliament and EU bureaucrats.
    I think that was considered inevitable from the start with a common currency, as was the ultimate unraveling....again because of a common currency. Not all places want the same fiscal policy and exchange fluctuations is what makes up the difference....take that away it its doomed (imo). Politicians hugged and Economists said hmmmm, I'm not sure about this.

    The contrary argument is that the US works with a single currency. Not sure that is valid as in the US a level of federalism has for a long time been accepted whereas in Europe they went from autonomy to not overnight. That plus Europe cultural concentrations reduce mobility, which you'd have to have with a common currency. In other words its a lot easier for someone in the US to relocate to a better performing area than many Europe

    This idea of banding together or breaking apart should be 100% a dull dry economic one. After all you can achieve almost all of the benefits with trade and open boarders etc with surrendering autonomy and most importantly having a key economic lever ripped out of your hands - your currency. However because they are big decisions and get driven by masses, they are not economic decision but instead mostly emotive ones.

    bottom line, as a trading block it makes a lot of sense, common currency, hmmm not so much so because the ultimately the only way to manage it is a strong central government.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    bottom line, as a trading block it makes a lot of sense, common currency, hmmm not so much so because the ultimately the only way to manage it is a strong central government.
    Completely agree. What the EU doesn't have is "a strong central government". I wonder how many could even name the EU president without having too look it up?

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    A common currency in the EU will not work and will eventually collapse without a common EU wide common financial budget and central control and I don't see that happening.

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    mep.jpg

    Just think of how much this costs

    The European Parliament is made up of 751 Members elected in the 28 Member States of the enlarged European Union. Since 1979 MEPs have been elected by direct universal suffrage for a five-year period.
    Each country decides on the form its election will take, but must guarantee equality of the sexes and a secret ballot. EU elections are by proportional representation. Voting age is 18, aside from Austria, where it is 16.
    Seats are allocated on the basis of population of each Member State. Slightly more than a third of MEPs are women. MEPs are grouped by political affinity, not nationality.
    MEPs divide their time between their constituencies, Strasbourg - where 12 plenary sittings a year are held - and Brussels, where they attend additional plenary sittings, as well as committee and political group meetings.
    The terms and conditions for Members are laid out in the Statute of 2009.

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    The Euro isn't a bed of roses but I don't regard it as one of the first top 5 reasons why the EU is disintegrating.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    The Euro isn't a bed of roses but I don't regard it as one of the first top 5 reasons why the EU is disintegrating.
    I think its the number one reason, and don't think second third or fourth are in sight. The reasons is fundamentally you can't really have a common currency without a common fiscal policy.....and that's what it seems what people are pushing back on. While the reasons you might site or hear might not sound like a common currency issue, imo its clear the underlying factor driving the discord and would need to be changed to fix things.

    They are disparate groups, economies and cultures who want to set their own fiscal policy. How is that EVER going to work without separate currencies to equalize? Maybe there are other really important reasons i'm not clued in on, but that to me seems the structural problem, the weak foundation that will eventually topple it or force a change

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    One of the big gripes here is that we don't seam to elect who goes there to represent us, it often seams to be old members of parliament that do it as a highly profitable gig for a few years.

    I really am kinda glad were leaving, yeah its still going to be bumpy, but with the weak pound my sales are through the roof. Im not sure what the future holds, but we should be a lot faster - more dynamic adapting to it going forwards independently.

    I think its also worth noting how people are ever more valuing real possessions here not money in banks. The collectables - hobby side of life has really seen prices rise hard and fast across the board from vintage sports cars through to stamp collections since the 2008 mess.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I believe the EU was originally started to make trade between countries in Europe easier.
    Very many will disagree with you. The original EU concept was designed to reduce the chance of war. Within a span of 30 years, two wars had decimated the continent. It was expected it wouldn't last, but it would buy time. In that respect, it was highly successful.

    But in the future? There is little commonality of interests, history, ethics, values, or morals. Why should they stay together?

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    I think the number one reason for dissatisfaction with the EU is because they broke their promise about admitting only strong healthy economies. It certainly looks as if there was some creative bookkeeping involved with bringing in the countries that have since required help from the stronger ones.

    I also disagree that this was originally intended to be just a trade agreement. I remember reading articles before the EU was approved suggesting that it was intended from the beginning to become a "United States of Europe". It would be easy to write off the authors simply as "conspiracy theorists" if the predictions did not seem to have become fact. When an entity can tell countries how many refugees to admit that is a far more entangling alliance than just a trade deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gbent View Post
    Very many will disagree with you. The original EU concept was designed to reduce the chance of war. Within a span of 30 years, two wars had decimated the continent. It was expected it wouldn't last, but it would buy time. In that respect, it was highly successful.
    If you can find a link that backs up your version (reduce the chance of war) I'll be happy to read it.

    Until then I'm going with:

    European Economic Community - Wikipedia

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    I think the number one reason for dissatisfaction with the EU is because they broke their promise about admitting only strong healthy economies. It certainly looks as if there was some creative bookkeeping involved with bringing in the countries that have since required help from the stronger ones.
    It certainly is a reason but not IMO #1. My belief is it is because EU politicians and bureaucrats live in their own world and have managed to disengage themselves from what people want. The EU parliament simply doesn't have the support of the masses.

    European Elections: 9 Scariest Far-Right Parties Now In The European Parliament | The Huffington Post

    Surprising how long it took EU politicians to realise this and some still don't get it.

    The most anti-immigrant countries in Europe | The Independent

    Another important one in my top 5 reasons IMO is the total and utter failure of the Schengen Agreement to secure the outer borders.

    Schengen Agreement - Wikipedia

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    Please note that what I'm writing is what I believe (and experience) and am not saying others that don't see it as I do are wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    I think its the number one reason, and don't think second third or fourth are in sight. The reasons is fundamentally you can't really have a common currency without a common fiscal policy.....and that's what it seems what people are pushing back on. While the reasons you might site or hear might not sound like a common currency issue, imo its clear the underlying factor driving the discord and would need to be changed to fix things.

    They are disparate groups, economies and cultures who want to set their own fiscal policy. How is that EVER going to work without separate currencies to equalize? Maybe there are other really important reasons i'm not clued in on, but that to me seems the structural problem, the weak foundation that will eventually topple it or force a change
    Except that both (but not all) countries in the EU with and without having the Euro as their currency are doing OK.

    The Euro certainly isn't a success but remember only 19 of the 28 EU countries have it as their currency.

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    I agree with Gbent both on the reasons for formation and the specter of what dissolution may cause.

    EUROPA - The history of the European Union

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Except that both (but not all) countries in the EU with and without having the Euro as their currency are doing OK.

    The Euro certainly isn't a success but remember only 19 of the 28 EU countries have it as their currency.
    good point....in what countries do you see the greatest discord?

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    The Euro was the precondition France and England demanded from Germany in return for their approval of German reunification. The German Mark had become the most valued currency in Europe and before France and England would agree to a united Germany they needed to free themselves of the dominance of the German Mark. That is after Mrs. Thatcher went ballistic trying to prevent German Unification without success. Later the Queen decided that "only over my dead body" will we join the Euro. Price to pay for Germany!! Did it work?
    It will be interesting to see how England will get through Brexit. I have said before (previous post) and still think, they - England - will try to do what they have done throughout history: Split Europe. Find a country to take England side and vote against any resolution setting tough terms for a Brexit. Watch the situation developing in Poland as we speak. Another point of leverage would be Italy and Greece.

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    #19 juergenwt
    "The Euro was the precondition France and England demanded from Germany in return for their approval of German reunification"

    Oh yes, well tell us all about it.


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