Living in a post-Trump world

zberto · Nov 17, 2016

As you all know,

Billionare real-estate magnate Donald Trump was elected 45th president of the United States.

The Trump, has made many promises during his campaign to revive US manufacturing and create well-paying jobs bringing more people into the middle class.

While this is still a contentious topic and much remains to be seen, I would like to hear everyone weigh in.

Please keep things respectful, we are all fighting the same fight whether we know it or not. I am curious what people have to say on the future outlook of manufacturing and trajectory of the global economic marketplace.

kpotter · Nov 17, 2016

He may bring companies back but I doubt many jobs will come with them. Automation will fill in the gap and wages will stay low for unskilled labor. We manufacture stuff and we ship world wide, the largest expense is not the making of the product it is the shipping of the product. We just got a quote from a laser cutter in Paris france one of the most expensive places on the planet to do a run of some of our products. We are getting them made in europe to avoid the shipping costs and the tarrifs. The quote I got today was 6 dollars higher than my cost in Tucson Arizona. Six dollars per part. That is nothing on a thousand dollar product. What this means is there is no longer any point in exporting stuff unless they are working for damm near free. Might as well just make it where it is being sold. I think there will be some angry people out there if they think the world is going back to a 1950s style assembly line. I find it amazing how productive modern manufacturing is, especially if you design your products to take full advantage of the technology.

TDegenhart · Nov 17, 2016

I agree with Kevin. Work may come back, but not necessarily jobs. The world is rushing toward automation. A country that does not embrace it will be left in the back wash.

This is not something we haven't faced before, but there was a place somewhere for the displaced people. At some point, and maybe we are there, the education and skill requirements of manufacturing will exceed the capabilities of the available workers. There are only so many jobs that can be filled by low skilled people and the pay for these will not be high.

So what do we as a society do? Make work through government jobs or the equal of the great depression CCC? Our liberal associates would like free everything, but who is to pay for it?

Another issue society will have to deal with is that a person needs a job to have dignity, a sense of self worth. Just providing welfare will not satisfy that need.

Liberal Agenda? No, just a realization that society is in for a rocky road if we don't face the issues.

Tom

Ziggy2 · Nov 17, 2016

TDegenhart said:
I agree with Kevin. Work may come back, but not necessarily jobs. The world is rushing toward automation. A country that does not embrace it will be left in the back wash.

This is not something we haven't faced before, but there was a place somewhere for the displaced people. At some point, and maybe we are there, the education and skill requirements of manufacturing will exceed the capabilities of the available workers. There are only so many jobs that can be filled by low skilled people and the pay for these will not be high.

So what do we as a society do? Make work through government jobs or the equal of the great depression CCC? Our liberal associates would like free everything, but who is to pay for it?

Another issue society will have to deal with is that a person needs a job to have dignity, a sense of self worth. Just providing welfare will not satisfy that need.

Liberal Agenda? No, just a realization that society is in for a rocky road if we don't face the issues.

Tom

There are a couple of things that have not fully occurred yet.

The first issue is that automation has a pay back when the total depreciated automation costs less than the labor it replaces. Up to this point we have been able to automate for considerably less than the cost of the labor it replaces.

There will be a point at which the automation expense will not reduce the labor costs enough to be justifiable. The current economic climate still allows the manufacturers to sell their products at a substantial profit. This situation will cease once the average wage is reduced to the point that the average member of society can no longer afford the manufactured product. Sort of like the big screen tv at Walmart that the person handing out the shopping carts can not afford.

As human labor and ultimately humanity become devalued, we will also see a corresponding devaluation of manufactured goods to some crossover equilibrium point.

I think the idea of creating make work jobs or printing pay checks for just staying home in the present and future environment will probably be a dead end onto itself. The problem is that as wages and manufacturing profits decrease, the government will see a dramatic decrease in revenues. At some point, even currency loses its value, if there is near zero economic activity.

It is interesting to note that much science fiction writing often ignores these very problems and paints a picture of a utopian world. These works often paint a picture of a wonderful world of leisure but yet never addresses the very real problem that only the main characters of the story have the utopian world. The reality is that it is the masses living in a dystopian world that create the wealth for the few to live in a utopian world in these stories.

Not to sound overly negative, but I think that technology and economics are on an unsustainable path. Until we can go back to a more balanced approach that balances the value of humanity with the value of profits, we are doomed to fail.

Not to sound like a Luddite, but a path that utilizes automation in a more balanced approach might be a better choice.

Oldwrench · Nov 18, 2016

Smart people are not "doomed to fail." Production technology will continue to evolve and people's skills will be utilized--and compensated--accordingly. That didn't change during the Obama administration and it won't change during the Trump administration, with the exception that national policy in many areas may start taking into consideration where the tax money comes from. I have reason to hope that less of my earnings will be squandered on various Quixotic efforts to halt an alleged rise in sea level, but that doesn't mean I will quit working or trying to create better widgets that sell for more money. Or quit leveraging every technological advance that I can afford. Yes, that means fewer employees but they earn more. That is a one-way trend that has been developing for a century and a half. Unfair to displaced file-and-chisel mechanics? Yes, but that's nothing new, and the trend ain't gonna stop. The politicians can be technologically ignorant or technologically informed; they do not matter.

72bwhite · Nov 18, 2016

you really expect a politician to actually deliver?
I got this swampland in Florida you might be interested in

Gordon B. Clarke · Nov 18, 2016

zberto said:
As you all know,

Billionare real-estate magnate Donald Trump was elected 45th president of the United States.

The Trump, has made many promises during his campaign to revive US manufacturing and create well-paying jobs bringing more people into the middle class.

While this is still a contentious topic and much remains to be seen, I would like to hear everyone weigh in.

Please keep things respectful, we are all fighting the same fight whether we know it or not. I am curious what people have to say on the future outlook of manufacturing and trajectory of the global economic marketplace.

I live a relatively stress-free life by dividing most issues into two categories.
1. Those I think I can do something about (admittedly those are in the minority

)
2. Those I know I can do nothing about except "wait and see".

What Trump can achieve, especially with regard to what he "promised", is definitely in my category 2.

The next 4 years will probably be "interesting" to put it mildly. As long as he keeps his finger away from the BUTTON I'll continue to sleep like a baby.

jscpm · Nov 18, 2016

Uh oh, get ready. :argue:

Now that the Danish People's Party and the Red-Green Alliance have called for a Danish exit from the European Union, maybe Trump will invite Denmark to become a territory of the United States? After all, we practically own Greenland anyway, which is most of Denmark, so we might as well have the rest of it, I guess

BTW, what does this have to do with Shop Management?

drom68 · Nov 18, 2016

Gordon B. Clarke said:
The next 4 years will probably be "interesting" to put it mildly. As long as he keeps his finger away from the BUTTON I'll continue to sleep like a baby.

Good grief... Probably a good idea to keep your fingers away from buttons.

drom68 · Nov 18, 2016

Ford just announced they will keep the plant in KY and not move to Mexico. Ford's decision and the possibility of Apple having parts made in the US will be a good indicator of things to come.

If Apple decides to have parts made here, it would be great to hear from those that make those parts and see what they come up with. More jobs or more machines and improved technology to limit the amount of workers.

Combined with other factors, tax, minimum wages, health care, etc.. we would need serious adjustments or the companies will go back to manufacturing outside the US.

Ziggy has some great comments about this being a balance. Can the US find that balance.

SND · Nov 18, 2016

Most of the job losses to automation in manufacturing have already happened, these days when a shop buys 1 or 2 new machines, they also hire a guy or 2 to run them in most cases. Not every shop makes Qty's in the 10's of thousands or millions to make use of robots, if anything there's more small QTY work than ever before as everyone tries to keep inventory to a minimum, or order at the last minute... or constantly change things.

The important part is that he was the better choice of the 2, and the stock market instantly agreed. Everyone(who works for a living anyway) even here in Canada feels energized and like this won't be another 4-8yrs of same old sh*t and Hillary was planning to kill/hurt a few good manufacturing markets, he's not. Will it turn good, or bad? time will tell but it was already headed for really bad, at least now there's a slight hope to change course. Now I just gotta wait 3yrs for Canada to hopefully pull its head out of is ass too.

Gordon B. Clarke · Nov 18, 2016

jscpm said:
Uh oh, get ready.

Now that the Danish People's Party and the Red-Green Alliance have called for a Danish exit from the European Union, maybe Trump will invite Denmark to become a territory of the United States? After all, we practically own Greenland anyway, which is most of Denmark, so we might as well have the rest of it, I guess

BTW, what does this have to do with Shop Management?[/QUOTE]

That's what I'm wondering about your post. Are you trolling or ?

Gordon B. Clarke · Nov 18, 2016

drom68 said:
Good grief... Probably a good idea to keep your fingers away from buttons.

Buttons? Read again. I wrote "the BUTTON". Singular, not plural.

michiganbuck · Nov 18, 2016

Think we need to insure there is no subsided shipping and that a competing country is not using other than manufacturing money to support manufacturing. Getting low cost products would/ could be Ok if we did not have to add to our country’s debt to have such products. Turn around is fair play so what a country does to us we should feel OK to do back to them.
Seems like the US is going to have 5% unemployment just because that many people have real problems or are satisfied with living on welfare so that is just a cost we will have.
I think Trump has the best intentions and with keeping his foot out of his mouth could pull it off…But he may have some republicans not liking bringing jobs back if that might lose 5% profit for some big businesses. He may have more difficulty if the American people can’t stand behind the guy they voted for even if half don’t like him.

We can’t change the cost of living in India, China and the like so competing with $.50 and perhaps $3.00 is a factor we have to work out…

Scottl · Nov 18, 2016

Gordon B. Clarke said:
I live a relatively stress-free life by dividing most issues into two categories.
1. Those I think I can do something about (admittedly those are in the minority )
2. Those I know I can do nothing about except "wait and see".

What Trump can achieve, especially with regard to what he "promised", is definitely in my category 2.

The next 4 years will probably be "interesting" to put it mildly. As long as he keeps his finger away from the BUTTON I'll continue to sleep like a baby.

While "wait and see" may be all YOU can do those of us who are U.S. citizens can remain involved in the political process and continue to push for changes that make things work for most Americans, creating a future for the "have nots" as well as the "haves". That, as has been noted by many writers and commentators, is what this election was all about. Mr. Trump may well backtrack on many issues but it is up to US, both liberals and conservatives, to pressure ALL elected officials for policies that are as fair and balanced as possible. Otherwise, it will be a return to "business as usual".

michiganbuck said:
Seems like the US is going to have 5% unemployment just because that many people have real problems or are satisfied with living on welfare so that is just a cost we will have.

That 5% unemployment figure is misleading because it does not include those who are no longer eligible for benefits and are now either chronically unemployed or chronically underemployed. I know many people, especially older men, who are barely eking out an existence with several low paying part-time jobs because no one will hire them full time due to prohibitively expensive health insurance costs. If you look for search terms like percentage of population not in the work force the actual figures are alarming, and those do not reflect the large number of underemployed.

What We Know About the 92 Million Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Bureau of Labor Statistics | Jobenomics

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Gordon B. Clarke · Nov 18, 2016

Scottl said:
While "wait and see" may be all YOU can do those of us who are U.S. citizens can remain involved in the political process and continue to push for changes that make things work for most Americans, creating a future for the "have nots" as well as the "haves". That, as has been noted by many writers and commentators, is what this election was all about. Mr. Trump may well backtrack on many issues but it is up to US, both liberals and conservatives, to pressure ALL elected officials for policies that are as fair and balanced as possible. Otherwise, it will be a return to "business as usual".

Not intended to be offensive but if it was that easy then why hasn't that happened long ago as many of you seem to be constantly upset with the way things are.

Seriously, I do hope you get what you want and hope for - whatever that is.

michiganbuck · Nov 18, 2016

Agree Scottl, The figures of number of underemployed are misleading .. just that I think we will/may have 5% even if jobs are there for the taking.

drom68 · Nov 18, 2016

Gordon B. Clarke said:
Buttons? Read again. I wrote "the BUTTON". Singular, not plural.

Yeah and I wrote "the buttons". I read your post and didn't mind it until you put the narrative of Trump pushing the main button.

michiganbuck · Nov 18, 2016

Here is a very intelligent Muslim woman. I think trump should put her on his team.
In one interview she said all Muslims should keep an eye out for radicals and report problem people.
Many Muslims came here to get away from radicals.

I’m a Muslim, a woman and an immigrant. I voted for Trump. - The Washington Post

Scottl · Nov 18, 2016

michiganbuck said:
Here is a very intelligent Muslim woman. I think trump should put her on his team.
In one interview she said all Muslims should keep an eye out for radicals and report problem people.
Many Muslims came here to get away from radicals.

I’m a Muslim, a woman and an immigrant. I voted for Trump. - The Washington Post

Most of the Muslims I have worked with have been educated, very moderate in their outlook, and very grateful to live in a country where people are not constantly fighting each other (and I mean REAL FIGHTING, not just differences of opinion that sometimes get a bit loud).

Living in a post-Trump world

Plastic

Diamond

Diamond

Stainless

Titanium

Titanium

Banned

Titanium

Cast Iron

Cast Iron

Diamond

Banned

Banned

Diamond

Diamond

Banned

Diamond

Cast Iron

Diamond

Diamond

Similar threads