More auctions - a harbinger of economic doom?

Comatose · Jul 12, 2017

I've been seeing a massive uptick in the number of auction advertisements in my inbox for the past few months. Even some with shiny late model equipment purchased after the last recession but old enough to be paid off. We've been dead slow for the past few months.

Are anyone else's recession detectors going off too, or is it just me? I feel like it's time to batten down the hatches for the coming storm.

dstryr · Jul 12, 2017

Bay Area still going full charge. Everyone I know here is slammed

ewlsey · Jul 12, 2017

Pretty mixed here. Mining has been in the dumps for so long that I think most of the shops who would be killed off by that downturn have done so.

It's not as bad as last year, but very close. We got a little uptick after the election, but now it's back to reality.

Scruffy887 · Jul 12, 2017

Auctions do seem to be more often but I am seldom interested. Last auction I drove 2 hours to got bailed out/saved/re fied while I was in transit. Arrived to empty parking lot with locked doors.

rklopp · Jul 12, 2017

dstryr said:
Bay Area still going full charge. Everyone I know here is slammed

I am in the SF Bay Area (Silicon Valley) on the engineering side of things. I have never been busier. That means my clients are busy, too. It is insane. Construction is also utterly insane around here. I'd love to be in the crane rental business right now.

I love all of these doomsayers talking about how everyone is leaving California in droves due to liberal laws and high taxes. The reality is exactly the opposite. We could use a few less people around the Bay Area, but demand just continues to outstrip supply of housing regardless of prices, taxes, or traffic.

Barry Weeks · Jul 12, 2017

It seems to be busy in my area too, but I have been bombarded with auction notices for the past year or two. I attribute this to increased marketing by auctioneers. Twenty years ago, auctions were almost top secret events. Now, every auction is listed in multiple locations online, and I am also notified by email and mail multiple times, in case I was going to forget about it.

SeaMoss · Jul 12, 2017

rklopp said:
We could use a few less people around the Bay Area

Agreed. Why don't y'all just go away and give me back my orchards ?

Davis In SC · Jul 12, 2017

SeaMoss said:
Agreed. Why don't y'all just go away and give me back my orchards ?

In Our area, SouthEast US, (SC, NC, GA) it seems 2008/2009 cleared out most of the weaker shops. There were many auctions those years. Prices were rock-bottom.. I regret not buying lots of things from those sales.
Very few auctions are happening locally.. The recent one in Laurens SC that was discussed here was a result of an elderly owner that had closed, and sold off many assets.. The only drawing point of the sale was a few Hardinge Lathes.

CarbideBob · Jul 12, 2017

I think auctions tend to be a very lagging indicator.
Many people tired hard for years to stay alive after the oil crash.
Think about this. Your shop is flush with work but it goes away.
You cut staff and costs and try to find something else. Others are doing the same you battle for what is left not quite making it but hoping.
You can't pay the bills but search. Then 4-5 years out you give up or the bank finishes the paperwork that leads to the auction.
Nobody wants to close up shop, you have to be forced and that process takes a while.
All the auctions in the automotive world came long after the work dried up.
Now would be about the right timing for the last oil bust.
Bob

Kaszub · Jul 13, 2017

Up and down for me east coast and yes i see more auctions poping up everywhere.

WILLEO6709 · Jul 13, 2017

I agree auctions used to be a more local thing. Bidspotter, internet only sales, email marketing, ebay, govliquidation.com, all have played into to changing the auction game entirely. I still find the online auctions some lots go to internet bidders who don't attend the inspection..... seems the auctioneers never have a photo of whats wrong or whats missing.....what I have seen paid for an inoperable machine with unobtanium gone is pretty amazing.

SMT · Jul 13, 2017

My shop is super busy. We're kind of loosing our minds, actually.

Machinery_E · Jul 13, 2017

Busy here. Last machine shop auction I went to back in April had a huge crowd and strong prices on desirable items. Snagged the tooling I was after on ebay at a deal, compared to the junk they had that brought a premium.

Machinery dealer end is interesting too, got one machine at HGR, real nice one. After I told them they I'd take it, when I was picking it up, they said several other people wanted to buy it. Another dealer, I bought a machine and wired payment. The day they said it would be available for pickup, they contacted me and said they were sending me a check-someone came along and offered them more money and they were selling it to them.

DouglasJRizzo · Jul 14, 2017

We have seen a large uptick in business lately.
My feeling is that the past 8-10 years have shut just about anyone who wasn't strong enough or willing, to tough it out. Locally, there are quite a few new machine tool purchases lately, and NJ is not a big manufacturing state.

Personally, I think you're in for a real boom if you can just tough out another month or so.

cnctoolcat · Jul 14, 2017

Busy here at the cat house. Coal mining in the Appalachian region has seen an slight uptick this year. Any sign of life is appreciated by shops like mine that make mining machinery replacement parts. Our industrial equipment customers are busy too.

Like everyone else in our industry, nobody seems to be able to find skilled help.

Actually I am raising prices on certain parts, to (hopefully) contain volume that I can handle without hiring more people. I will be 50 next month - been at the shop for 20 now, and hope to retire by 60.

So, my ambitions to be the next machine shop "Bill Gates" have long vanished...

ToolCat

SeaMoss · Jul 15, 2017

Machinery_E said:
Another dealer, I bought a machine and wired payment. The day they said it would be available for pickup, they contacted me and said they were sending me a check-someone came along and offered them more money and they were selling it to them.

On a small thing it's not worth the hassle but if this was something you really want or need, they can't do that. Once they agree to sell it to you and you send the money per the agreement, it's not theirs to sell to anyone else.

Just on general principles (I'm an asshole) I'd flock them over on this. It's a dishonest practice.

SND · Jul 15, 2017

Well, I have a lot more faith in the US doing just fine overall, than I do with Canada's direction...

Larry Dickman · Jul 15, 2017

We've been mega busy, are as most of the other shops I know. However, I get Auction pamphlets in the mail almost every day. Weird?

Jgryz450 · Jul 15, 2017

Pa is still steady, there were alot of places that went under and got bought out by (investors). At least they could find the work so the guys on the floor could keep there jobs. Also this area is hurting real bad for skilled guys. Everyone is a button pusher anymore and its sad. Places are at battle to keep there (good guys) so at least our pay scale is a little closer to making ends meet easier. The Mazak I bought is strictly for my own entertainment because if things get tough again I don't want to panic. It seems the the shops that (stayed alive) have there own nitch to keep the workflow steady. Our smallest machine has a 50in table, our biggest is 200in. And most are well over 120in. I think when the s@#$ hit the fan that kept us alive. Although we went from 3 shifts to 1 and 8hr days.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

Ries · Jul 16, 2017

virtually all the auctions I see advertised are east of the missisippi.
in my State, population 5 million, there is ONE industrial auction being advertised for the next 2 month period, and its a tank fab shop.
wages here are going up, shops are all busy. One local company is working on a product they predict will add 1000 employees to my 120,000 pop. County in the next few years, all $25/hr and up jobs.

the economy of the USA is not one economy- its a dozen different local ones.

More auctions - a harbinger of economic doom?

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