OT - The future of work?

[ManicMetalBasher]

#16 ewlsey
" I mean jesus people are lazy. Walk around the parking lot of a department store and see how many shopping
carts are just left out in the middle" ?

Walk around the parking lot and 50% of the people you see it takes two weeks to walk around them!

 

[ewlsey]

Walk around the parking lot and 50% of the people you see it takes two weeks to walk around them!

Agreed. Everyone in America wants to sit on their ass and watch football and polish off a 5 gallon bucket of chicken wings and a case of beer.

 

[toolsteel]

One day the government will just have to give everyone a basic wage and a i phone just to keep the peace. I guess in some ways they already do.

that is soooooo 2012...lol

 

[tdmidget]

Agreed. Everyone in America wants to sit on their ass and watch football and polish off a 5 gallon bucket of chicken wings and a case of beer.

Swap you a case of a good IPA for 5 gal of chicken wings. Robert Heinlein, conservative as he was, wrote a story in the 30s or 40s about a time when automation had reduced jobs to the point where people were given a stipend to live, no obligation required. Those with creativity or who just could not sit still went on to form their own enterprises. It looks like we might be close.

 

[adama]

Do you guys still seriously do shopping? Forget self check out, its for slaves. Online is were it is man, hell even the local butchers are starting to offer it (candle makers have been online for ages too now!!).

Do it online, move into this century, pre girlfriend, i could do 95% of my weekly shop in less than ten button clicks, just by copying the list from last times, then add what i wanted to make this week less repetitive. Seriously, drive there, pay for fuel, over here its typically pay to park, Que, add some trolly rage. nahh fuck that just do it online, make some jobs for robot pickers, make a job for a delivery driver + save the planet the delivery CO2 by the efficiencies of the multi drop route the delivery drivers do.

 

[Scottl]

One bit of extra work that I mind very much is the time spent correcting someone's careless mistakes. In recent years I've had a much greater percentage of orders screwed up - wrong item sent, items missing, or wrong quantity sent. I then must spend time contacting the vendor, packing up and labeling the items, and getting them to the shipper. On one order for some paperback technical books there were three of one title when I only ordered one. The seller said to keep the extras as they did not want to pay return shipping but the mix up still cost me extra time.

On the job how many times have we had to fix something screwed up by carelessness? I see a huge tolerance for such people among modern management. The same guy will mess up time after time and never gets corrected for it.

 

[Oldwrench]

...about a time when automation had reduced jobs to the point where people were given a stipend to live, no obligation required. Those with creativity or who just could not sit still went on to form their own enterprises. It looks like we might be close.

A rather large proportion of the population already gets a stipend; unfortunately, it's the creative people who have to contribute it! At least EBT has sped up the checkout line!

 

[Scottl]

Swap you a case of a good IPA for 5 gal of chicken wings. Robert Heinlein, conservative as he was, wrote a story in the 30s or 40s about a time when automation had reduced jobs to the point where people were given a stipend to live, no obligation required. Those with creativity or who just could not sit still went on to form their own enterprises. It looks like we might be close.

Ever see the movie Wall-E? In a future world the earth became so polluted that all the people moved to a giant space ship. Robots do all the work so people lie around on these floating lounges. All of them are seriously obese. I'm not usually a fan of animated "kiddy" films but this one pokes some serious fun at human nature.

Of course if I truly got the message I would have gone for a walk instead of watching it.

 

[PeteM]

I wonder if people really are naturally lazy?

Seems to me if you watch young kids (young puppies, etc.), they run around like crazy. So, what happens to some of them as they get older?

 

[metlmunchr]

A rather large proportion of the population already gets a stipend; unfortunately, it's the creative people who have to contribute it! At least EBT has sped up the checkout line!

One of the most consistent beliefs of conservatives seems to be anything the more fortunate among us gets in the form of a government handout is earned while anything the less fortunate get is just more freeloading off the so called job creators.

My 89 yr old dad's net worth is in the $5 mil range. Probably $ 1 mil in cash and other assets on which income tax was paid, and the other $4 mil in appreciated real estate values and residual value of fully depreciated or expensed heavy equipment and machinery.

So, $4 million that's never been taxed will pass tax free to me and my sisters. If that amount was taxed as regular income, around 35%, then the "passes tax free" provision amounts to the equivalent of a federal government handout worth $1.4 million.

The current US average food stamp benefit is $125 per person per month. Our tax break would be approximately equivalent to the amount 185 food stamp recipients would collect if they all stayed on the program for 5 years.

The point being, it isn't just the poor who benefit from government largesse.

 

[Mcgyver]

So, $4 million that's never been taxed will pass tax free to me and my sisters. If that amount was taxed as regular income, around 35%, then the "passes tax free" provision amounts to the equivalent of a federal government handout worth $1.4 million.

.

you sure? here there'd likely be a deemed disposition triggering capital gains. Even if not, tax is just deferred, the capital gain still looms when you sell it. Still, you could also send in the 1.4MM if you really felt it the right thing to do

 

[smalltime]

So, $4 million that's never been taxed will pass tax free to me and my sisters.

https://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Small-Businesses-&-Self-Employed/Estate-Tax

How do you get around this?^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[CarbideBob]

.....
How do you get around this?^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

In the past with good tax planning you skirted the rules and everyone did it. The IRS system is full of loopholes which is why it's rule book is so big.
There is a tipping point where highly paid guys who study and understand every detail become worth their weight in gold.
When a bunch of changes come down my help jokingly refers to it as "The recent accountant and lawyer employment act passed by congress".
Now at this level not so much work. .....From your link:
"A filing is required for estates with combined gross assets and prior taxable gifts exceeding .........., $5,450,000 in 2016."
IMO, no sane person could understand our entire tax code.
There are those that sweat, live, eat and breathe this end and make good money by saving others lot of money.
If I can put $10,000 more into your bank account would you pay me $500 to $1500? Add zeros here as needed,
Bob

 

[smalltime]

In the past with good tax planning you skited the rules and everyone did, now at this level not so much work. .....From your link:
"A filing is required for estates with combined gross assets and prior taxable gifts exceeding .........., $5,450,000 in 2016."
Bob

I see.
I failed to drill down deep enough to get to those facts.

 

[Modelman]

So, what's the problem? The argument for stepping the basis of an estate up is it prevents the forced sale of assets to pay the estate taxes. Otherwise small farms must be split up; small businesses would need to be sold, most likely at a loss, to satisfy the tax burden created by the untimely death of the owner.

It's not like this serves the "1%." Five million bucks is chicken feed to Trump, the Koch brothers, or George Soros. However, there are a lot of small business owners here. Could YOUR business easily raise the 1.75 million dollar tax that would be due on a five million dollar business?

Like all the different "loopholes" in our big ol nasty tax code, the number is what it is because Congress set it there. In the last ten of fifteen years the amount of the exemption has bounced from $600,000, to five million, to zero, and back to five million. If you don't like where it is set, lobby your congressman to change it. Just be aware that the changes will affect things far beyond current tax revenue... things like whether small businesses survive, or are forced to sell out to bigger competitors who then close them and send the work to China.

Dennis

 

[Miguels244]

In the past with good tax planning you skirted the rules and everyone did it. The IRS system is full of loopholes which is why it's rule book is so big.
There is a tipping point where highly paid guys who study and understand every detail become worth their weight in gold.
When a bunch of changes come down my help jokingly refers to it as "The recent accountant and lawyer employment act passed by congress".
Now at this level not so much work. .....From your link:
"A filing is required for estates with combined gross assets and prior taxable gifts exceeding .........., $5,450,000 in 2016."
IMO, no sane person could understand our entire tax code.
There are those that sweat, live, eat and breathe this end and make good money by saving others lot of money.
If I can put $10,000 more into your bank account would you pay me $500 to $1500? Add zeros here as needed,
Bob

It's called Guard Labor.
A known drag on economies with large wealth inequality.
My accountant makes his living by protecting other people's money.

 

[Spinit]

Yes things are becoming more automated. In the 70's it was felt people would be freed from the mundane and benefited and would therefore being without the less than desirable work would thus find something new and useful to do and earn in that way. Of course they assumed the automation would lower the costs of living and so people would not need as much money to survive. They never mentioned the possibility that such automation may not be lowering costs especially if the prices for needs like doctors ,lawyers, food and shelter, are set high to make profit on a scale the owners wish. It is happening now that item made here is sold for ten dollars with two dollars profit and it is moved overseas made for 2 dollars and sold for nine dollars each meaning a new higher profit of seven dollars per unit.

 

[Spinit]

Those marvelous machines!

I do really think that with Automation we will all be ok at least the up and coming Millennials who many disparage a lot just like we boomers were when we were young with our long hair and our idealism to change the world and said that Love is the greatest thing on the surface of this world including the air into which we (the earlier generations pulled that invention off not the boomers each generation progresses this world) mastered to fly.

With the CNC Machines for a older man who learned on Manual machines which are still as cool as the CNC Machines we sometimes cuss when Murphy (of "Murphy's Law Fame-and coming to your town soon because he visited ours recently-when I pretended to run out of cookies he left) ...comes through for a quick visit. I pat mine like I would a good Texan horse if I want it to behave with great respect and care.

in These CNCs are a step into automation and they are amazing after taming to run consistent and repeat good parts over and over again. We must still have precision measuring tools and use our minds to solve problems with those and the mathematics including algebra and triggin things we were taught and told by our teachers we most likely would never use. This was while the space program was being geared up and after the Manhattan project along with the tremendous manufacture of Guns over butter during WWII.

My next point in all this rambling is that in being optimistic there will likely be jobs for our children as these Automation s ( a human being without a job due to automation still qualifies for unused Capacity) are quite fine machines and break down and when moving more to automation they will have to be maintained to avoid massive cost to repair them not to mention production halted and stopped. It will possible be that when we have them that they will be too complex for one man to know how to fix alone as they would have to learn too much to pull it off.

I can see that it can become a wise move for many different specialists being involved in the coming industrial revolution which has never really stopped advancing. Doctors and Lawyers specialize and so will we.

The future will be bright if we insist on it being so for ourselves and our Loved ones because we demand it and will command it to be so. Political parties and politics aside we all agree we all must prosper in America and make sure that it happens because morally and rationally it must if we wish to continue to be strong and the positive influence in this world. United we stand! Carry on.

 

[kpotter]

I have watched this scenario play out twice, the first time was a good friend of mine who has a small manufacturing company. He had 27 employees 2 years ago, he was drowning, he needed to fix something. He started with an automatic saw with bar feeder, that replaced to workers, it cost 400 a month and he saved that much just in busted blades. The workers cost around 4 grand. The next machine he bought was a roto blaster that got rid of the guy in the sandblasting booth. Later that year he bought a robot welder and got rid of 5 welders he kept 2 they take the parts from the saw to the robot and to the rotoblast. Next on the list was an automated powder coat line that replaced 3 guys. The same two welders load the parts from the rotoblast onto the powder rack. He got rid of the entire shipping and packing department and farmed it all out to a fullfillment center, 6 jobs gone. Now that he has less people by by human ressource people and one secretary. He now has 9 people and does the same work. My neighbor makes lighting they have been around 50 years nearly bankrupt this year. He bought an automatic saw and you know the rest of the story. Cut his work force by 75% and is now not going bankrupt. This is just two small companies that I know of I cant imagine what is going on nation wide.

 

[Spinit]

Even with all those automated functions human beings who have been replaced by there still are all of those people who need something to do. They must count for capacity for something it seems to me because automation itself is very expensive. Below that there surely must be work to do which will pay ok if the finished product or service is not cost effective to automate. Plus we never know how these automation's may screw up and therefore the people may in fact do a much better job than a automated system. How many times have we seen what we can describe as the current automation in manufacturing now. Using the best software in the world it is still common to get garbage in and garbage out. A automation can only do as well as the experts and make believe ones who can not make a automation that does it's job the right way and in a flawless way. I will believe it can when I see it. These are reliant on human beings to set them up after designing them and so on. Besides they (The designers) are more than likely on a brand new learning curve in a relatively new change. The examples given earlier were good examples of where this worked yet they are simple processes.