Would lengthy blackouts create new manufacturing opportunities?

[thermite]

The tricky situation in Germany is that half the government is Greens...and I have a suspicion that the greens are funded by mad vlad as a sure fire method of wrecking NATO.

Yahbut.. that backfires.

Remember that NATO was FOUNDED to:

Keep:

- Russia OUT of Europe

- US IN Europe
and
- Germany DOWN "regardless".

Since pre-Roman times, "Germany" has always been 'shorthand notation' for the anarchic tribe(s) you want to have on the OTHER guy's side ......for maximum damage to his goals, and LEAST damage to your own!

Its still working.... !!!

Germany accepted dependence on "cheap" Russian energy, income from selling medium-tech (automobiles) to high-tech (turbines and such)?

As Russia's economy continues to degrade, they'll not be able to AFFORD German goods, Even as Germany continues to bust their own sanctions, they can no longer afford to GIVE their goods to Russia for free.

China has the same problem.

Willing to help Russia, but not if the Chinese have to bear the COST when Russia can no longer PAY.

As Germany's economy degrades, they'll not be able to afford full replacement of Russian energy, either.

Spiral-down of FURTHER decline ensues. Wring-hands, shift blame, repeat.

And - 'as usual' - both tribes "did it to themselves".

"Win-Win" all around?

Watch and see. Not the first rodeo.. by about 2500 years.. and counting.

 

[john.k]

The tricky situation in Germany is the greens have promised to rip up all the autobahns ,ban private motor vehicles......they particularly dislike EVs ,because the process of removing all cars is retarded,......Now the greens supporters all have long beards and peace signs,but can turn remarkably violent at times.

 

[thermite]

The tricky situation in Germany is the greens have promised to rip up all the autobahns ,ban private motor vehicles......they particularly dislike EVs ,because the process of removing all cars is retarded,......Now the greens supporters all have long beards and peace signs,but can turn remarkably violent at times.

What's "tricky" - let alone "new" - about Germanic-weird, and whom, besides themselves, might it harm?

 

[hanermo]

Fwiw ..
Tomorrow they will be installing my new 9.9 kW solar panels, with grid interconnect, 3-phase vfd, and backfeed tariffs.
My current power bill, approx 350-450$ / month, will go to about 70$ line charge, or maybe less.
Saving about 2500$ /yr.
My current heating costs, approx. 3000$/yr will go to about 200$/yr.
Saving about 2800$ /yr.

I am installing an air-water heat pump of 12-16 kW that will deliver air conditioning, that we don't have.
This would cost about 150$/mo in the summer, in power.

Also 2 spas, and a swimming pool, and a sauna, being installed, all operated out of the excess energy from the pv system, at zero marginal cost.

The pv system, paid in cash, net cost is 6000$.
Payback time is about 12 months.

Cash savings are about 600$/mo forever after paying for the system.

Green is good.
But green is, and will be, principally driven by money.

 

[Scottl]

When are they going to work the bugs out of this software? The quoting function is a mess.

That's for damn sure. I find that in order to copy and paste from other sources (such as web articles) I have to paste it into a text editor first and then copy that. Otherwise it seems to paste as a block with persistent formatting properties.

On the old software everything just pasted as plain text.

 

[Scottl]

Manufacturing oportunity...but don't ride if it's toooo windy!

Solar powered e-trike sent to our forum by "GreatLab".

"Just wanted to say thank you for your StreetFox plans. I made a small adjustment to the plans and power it with a 24v 500 watt 2500 rpm motor with 12.5 to 1 gear reduction to a 26 inch rear wheel. Speed is around 18 mph with a distance of 35 to 40 miles on a 24v 36ah battery pack. Recharges using a 255 watt poly panel run through a Renogy 10a waterproof charge controller. I have about 210 miles on it so far.

StreetFox Tadpole Trike DIY Plan | AtomicZombie DIY Plans

DIY Plans for Bikes, Trikes, Choppers and Farm Equipment. Easy to follow DIY Plans made for Everyone. Instant Download.

www.atomiczombie.com

Interesting little project. The only thing I wonder about is how it would handle in strong crosswinds with that large panel on top.

Oops! I see you've already mentioned that issue.

 

[thermite]

Cash savings are about 600$/mo forever after paying for the system.

Sounds good, but...

What about service life, maintenance, and estimated major-component outright replacement costs?

"Nothing lasts forever but old Fords and a natural stone".

"Life Cycle" costing surely is not a 'new' exercise for you?

 

[thermite]

That's for damn sure. I find that in order to copy and paste from other sources (such as web articles) I have to paste it into a text editor first and then copy that. Otherwise it seems to paste as a block with persistent formatting properties.

On the old software everything just pasted as plain text.

Hit the editor's "toggle" and go back to visible html instead of WYSIWIG so you can mangle the tags, directly, then.

 

[Scottl]

According to one article (linked below) Germany decommissioned the coal mines in 2018 that were supplying power plants and was buying Russian coal to satisfy their needs. They "have" nuclear, but it's more like "had" since the closures are approaching, and are irrevocable. German basically lack a domestic supply of energy to fill it's needs for the foreseeable future. Especially since up until the Ukraine war Russia was Germany's main supplier.

Upside is, at least historically, most countries on a war footing come up with innovative ways to deal with their needs and historically technical change, although horrendously expensive advances at a very high rate. Germany is gonna be paying out the wa-zoo for bad planning and I would not be surprise that someday history will show that Germany go played big time by leadership who's decisions were manipulated by foreign and business interests.

I'm guessing there is a whole bunch of no bid contracts out there to address poor decision making with cold winter weather not that far off. Political consequences could be ugly. I'm sure politicians don't want to see a Sri Lanka situation in their own backyard.

Here's a link to a pretty good summary of Germany's energy situation:

Germany revives dirty coal amid Russian gas war – DW – 06/20/2022

Germany has struggled to fill its gas storage sites since Russia began throttling its supply. Among the possible solutions are an increased use of coal for power production, and industry incentives to reduce consumption.

www.dw.com

And there's an opportunity for us. Germany has the dirtier brown coal and if we sold them our cleaner black coal it would be a win for us and the environment.

 

[Scottl]

That depends on how many batteries you have. Ever heard of an electric forklift? They generally run two shifts on a charge and move hundreds of tons of goods on that one charge.

Not sure where you got that "two shifts on a charge" info but for steady warehouse use they tend to recharge during lunch or after that shift ends. Battery life also depends on lift height and what you are doing. Retrieving pallets from high racks involves lifting only the carriage, forks, and part of the mast. The trip down is powered by gravity. Stocking those same high shelves involves lifting additional weight and the hydraulic motor has to work harder, using more charge.

And dc forklifts aren't a really good analogy for a residential solar/battery setup. A forklift battery is charged relatively quickly using grid power. In the residential setup your peak charging is roughly 6-8 hours a day whereas typical lifestyles use electricity over a longer period. Add in conversion losses and you may end up rationing electric use during prolonged periods of rainy or overcast weather.

 

[Scottl]

To be honest if New York City went dark for the next 48 hours there are those of us who would be laughing our ass off.

I wouldn't. Those are people living there and just because they prefer city life over suburbs or rural doesn't mean they should suffer. Places like NYC are exactly why we shouldn't let the "greens" rush us into energy schemes that risk periodic energy shortages. In more spread out living you have plenty of options for heating, cooling, cooking etc. We have all kinds of backup and can survive most anything although not necessarily as comfortably as we like.

In a city full of high rises a lack of electricity can be deadly.

 

[thermite]

And there's an opportunity for us. Germany has the dirtier brown coal and if we sold them our cleaner black coal it would be a win for us and the environment.

Not EVERYBODY looks at this s**t solely from a swivel chair by way of "PM", Pilgrim.

Analysis: U.S. coal companies struggle to cash in on Europe crunch

U.S. coal producers are seeking to boost exports to cash in on soaring prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine but face big headwinds including shipping bottlenecks, labor shortages, and a dismal long-term outlook discouraging investments in new mines.

www.reuters.com

 

[thermite]

I wouldn't. Those are people living there and just because they prefer city life over suburbs or rural doesn't mean they should suffer. Places like NYC are exactly why we shouldn't let the "greens" rush us into energy schemes that risk periodic energy shortages. In more spread out living you have plenty of options for heating, cooling, cooking etc. We have all kinds of backup and can survive most anything although not necessarily as comfortably as we like.

In a city full of high rises a lack of electricity can be deadly.

We are resilient enough to manage OK when it happens in Hong Kong.

Whole different 'culture', though.

 

[standardparts]

I wouldn't. Those are people living there and just because they prefer city life over suburbs or rural doesn't mean they should suffer. Places like NYC are exactly why we shouldn't let the "greens" rush us into energy schemes that risk periodic energy shortages. In more spread out living you have plenty of options for heating, cooling, cooking etc. We have all kinds of backup and can survive most anything although not necessarily as comfortably as we like.

In a city full of high rises a lack of electricity can be deadly.

New York is running a PSA on what to do in case of nuclear attack. Maybe the decision makers in Albany have moved a power outage to #2 on their disaster list.

 

[Trueturning]

Just noticed today that in Quba their energy outages have triggered the largest protests since their revolution over the outages. It seems they have internet and cellphones now which massively increased spontaneous participation in them. The government requested supporters to go out in the streets and bust up these protest with violence. Quite interesting development and underlines the importance of a stable supply of energy.

Cuba faced the biggest protests since the revolution. One year on, the government's grip is tighter than ever | CNN

The largest anti-government protests to take place in Cuba since the 1959 revolution started with a blackout on a boiling hot summer day. After days of power cuts by the government, residents in the small city of San Antonio de los Baños ran out of patience. On July 11, 2021, they took to the...

www.cnn.com

 

[thermite]

If it was 4 wheel so twin seat plus a little bit of rear space, be ideal to cruise to the shops around here!

Only until you got drowsy and it ran out of stabilizing wind whilst you were nodding-off for a nap.


Now.. the Leeward Islands...

 

[Ox]

Fwiw ..
Tomorrow they will be installing my new 9.9 kW solar panels, with grid interconnect, 3-phase vfd, and backfeed tariffs.
My current power bill, approx 350-450$ / month, will go to about 70$ line charge, or maybe less.
Saving about 2500$ /yr.
My current heating costs, approx. 3000$/yr will go to about 200$/yr.
Saving about 2800$ /yr.

I am installing an air-water heat pump of 12-16 kW that will deliver air conditioning, that we don't have.
This would cost about 150$/mo in the summer, in power.

Also 2 spas, and a swimming pool, and a sauna, being installed, all operated out of the excess energy from the pv system, at zero marginal cost.

The pv system, paid in cash, net cost is 6000$.
Payback time is about 12 months.

Cash savings are about 600$/mo forever after paying for the system.

Green is good.
But green is, and will be, principally driven by money.

I'd be more interested in the "gross" cost.
OPM


--------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

 

[Ox]

Manufacturing oportunity...but don't ride if it's toooo windy!

Solar powered e-trike sent to our forum by "GreatLab".

"Just wanted to say thank you for your StreetFox plans. I made a small adjustment to the plans and power it with a 24v 500 watt 2500 rpm motor with 12.5 to 1 gear reduction to a 26 inch rear wheel. Speed is around 18 mph with a distance of 35 to 40 miles on a 24v 36ah battery pack. Recharges using a 255 watt poly panel run through a Renogy 10a waterproof charge controller. I have about 210 miles on it so far.

StreetFox Tadpole Trike DIY Plan | AtomicZombie DIY Plans

DIY Plans for Bikes, Trikes, Choppers and Farm Equipment. Easy to follow DIY Plans made for Everyone. Instant Download.

www.atomiczombie.com

.

Seriously, is that yours?

Is the hitch on the front for dragging home behind the VW, or for towing out stuck lawnmowers in reverse?

Either way, sounds like a cool toy.
Haul one or two of you?

(apparently one needs to stay home with the VW?)


-------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

 

[hanermo]

Sounds good, but...

What about service life, maintenance, and estimated major-component outright replacement costs?

"Nothing lasts forever but old Fords and a natural stone".

"Life Cycle" costing surely is not a 'new' exercise for you?

The panels themselves tend to last for decades, with a degradation of 0.5% per year, give or take.
The only major component is the inverter, 8 years service life is common.
When it fails, I buy a new one for 1500 $.

 

[hanermo]

I'd be more interested in the "gross" cost.
OPM


--------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

15 k theoretical.
13 k when not financed for 10 years.

1.3 $/watt.
6k subsidy.
The government gets it back from not needing peaker plants and fuel. net zero-zero.