3D printing - the end of the beginning?

[Milland]

Hi all,
I'm putting this here rather than AM/3DP as it's a major manufacturer pointing towards reducing traditional mass manufacturing methods and towards large scale 3D printing:

Volkswagen will use 3D printers to mass produce parts

If this is followed through, it will affect mold shops, machinists, and many others in "traditional" manufacturing. It's one thing to make limited production items like turbine blades and rocket engines with 3DP, if it takes off in auto making it's a game changer.

What do you think?

 

[Ries]

I think- dont hold your breath.
Yes, more stuff will be 3D printed as time goes on.
But what VW is announcing is trunk logos- which, previously, were diecast from Zamak. Later, injection molded from plastic.

While the article mentions some vague future time when Pistons may be printed, I am doubting I will live that long.

More real than the VW parts are the "printed" titanium parts Boeing is starting to use- these type of parts were previously forged and machined.

However, if you read the article, that technology is still pretty primitive- basically, its very accurately controlled MIG deposition welding, which is not exactly printing, yet.
Still, it will replace some of the guys who currently machine a 3'x3' x 3' cube of metal into a 10lb part.

3D-printed titanium parts could save Boeing up to $3 million per plane - The Verge

 

[DDoug]

Molded fiberglass was gonna take over car production.

Tire manuf.s tried polyurethanes:
Goodyear tries out glow-in-the-dark wheels in 196s

And....
Tim Wilson Debuts "Where the F Is My Jetpack" - YouTube

 

[bryan_machine]

I think Milland and Ries are refering to different articles, the link I followed barely said anything at all....

Will moldmakers and the like face various pressures? Sure, but I'd worry more about electrification of autos and the rise of the car-less city dweller as bigger threats than 3d printed plastic doorknobs.

One could also imagine improved forging techniques (for example) that make more forgings that need less, very little, or no machining.

In most of the general audience discussions about these things, the stunning productivity of stampings, sometimes forgings, injection molded plastic, etc. is often glossed over.

Likewise one still sees the bizarre article that talks about Jay Leno's garage 3d printing a plastic wrench to fit some weird fastener. How many applications are there for plastic wrenches?

 

[DDoug]

One could also imagine improved forging techniques (for example) that make more forgings that need less, very little, or no machining.

Already here:
Powder Metal Innovation

Website used to have a better article on the actual process, and the gears used in the automotive transmissions.

 

[Meggab]

Check this out: Introducing HP Metal Jet technology at IMTS 2018 | 3D Printing | HP

Introducing HP Metal Jet technology at IMTS 218 | 3D Printing | HP - YouTube

 

[DDoug]

Check this out: Introducing HP Metal Jet technology at IMTS 2018 | 3D Printing | HP

Introducing HP Metal Jet technology at IMTS 218 | 3D Printing | HP - YouTube

43 minutes of a millennial swinging his arm's around whilst walking onstage?
Not gonna happen.
Need the short and sweet "Cliff Notes"

Metal printing is NOT that "New":
Sciaky, Inc. | Industrial Metal 3D Printing | Arc + EB Welding

 

[Meggab]

At your request, Cliff notes:
1. Metal Jet - Introduces a new binder jet.
2. remaining material can be re-used.
3. Surface Finish
4. Ra 4-7
5. Rz 25-40
6. Homogenous microstructure
1. Material properties inspected and approved by ASME
7. 50x more productive than any other metal AM method.
8. Base Price = $399,999
9. Latex based binder = <1% of total of final work piece weight
10. Moore’s Law - Capability doubles every 18 months.
11. Road map
1. Producing parts with GKN (powder & metallurgy) & Parmatech (medical).
2. 2021 Metal Jet Broad Availability
12. Advantages
1. Freedom of Design
2. Weight Reduction
1. Up to 80% reduction in Cyl. Blocks
3. Eliminating tool cost
4. Eliminating process design time.
13. VW testimony
1. Goal - Apply to mass production
2. Today - mass customization (key fab)
3. Future 2019 - mirror mount (was welded)
4. Future 2021 - Electric Vehicle parts, safety certified.
14. Wilo - pumps
1. Optimized internal components ... makes pumps more efficient.
15. Can upload parts to website and they will send it you

 

[DDoug]

Who needs a binder ?

 

[edwin dirnbeck]

IT IS COMMING
I am 77 years old and have seen all of the denials and hand ringing before. YOU CANT STOP TECHNOLOGY.The young brilliant kids fresh out of college could care less about machining and casting and moldmaking and forging. All of the afore mentioned processes impose toO many limitations on part design. They all want to design super strong hollow parts with INTENRAL RIBBING and mix and match material on the same part.No its not going to happen in 6 years.I ran the first masak cnc lathe in St louis in 1976.It didn't have a tv screen and max program length was about 80 lines. Twenty years later ,the programs were so long and flying thru the control so fast you couldn't read them .Parts were being MACHINED faster than the rapid moves on 20 year old machines . Change is coming get ready.Edwin Dirnbeck

 

[JRIowa]

Just to add to Edwin's post;
What about CAD? that was going to be the end of draftsman.
Injection molded parts? Cheap plastic parts were going to be the end of quality manufacturing.
Spot welded cars? Spot welds wouldn't hold up and cars were only going to last 5 years.

The automotive industry has given us the most inovation because of the volumes they require. What would be a "special" to most manufacturers will be made for any of the big 3 because of the volume. Aeronautical comes in because of the cost of the part. There was an article a while back on how Boeing "saved" 20 hours of machining time on a TI bulkhead by changing cutters.

There are a lot of businesses that won't see that inovation because they've got people running machining departments that don't know a lathe from a gringer, but they've got a masters in logistics. I'm just happy to be retired, but I still hear all of the "stories".
JR

BTW, I got a you won't believe this the other day. Supervisor said "send the part over there to get the lathing done". No kidding.

 

[Ries]

I am not denying or hand wringing- I am just saying, the stuff being announced now is for low tolerance, low strength, mostly decorative items. Cost per part is still high- maybe not high enough to be a problem for some very high markup industries, like medical implants or space stuff- but to compete with Indian forging plants, Vietnamese stamping plants, Chinese injection molding factories, and Pakistani stainless fab shops, they have a long way to go.

Realistically, PLASTIC 3D printing is still not viable, financially or volume and time wise, for most low cost parts, and probably wont be for a decade or two.

Certainly, 3D metal printing is coming,

My point is, its coming slow.

The Titanium process, touted as 3D printing is still pretty crude. It requires post printing machining. And its the closest to a functioning industrial process right now.
It was developed because of a real choke point in global fabrication- that is, machine time on 50,000 to 200,000 ton forging presses.
Currently, virtually EVERY SINGLE US military plane, Boeing, or Airbus aircraft has parts in it made on one of the few remaining large presses from the Heavy Press program the Air Force pushed thru in the mid 1950s.
So there was huge financial and political pressure to come up with more capacity.

That is not really true for gear shift knobs or trunk logos, the two things VW is actually saying they are making right now.
Its great they can print em.
But its not the future we were promised in the Jetsons.

 

[DMF_TomB]

the basics
.
cost per pound of part
.
cost for machine and to maintain machine
.
if you got a 100 lb part and it cost $100 per pound thats $10,000. for the part. never do i hear them talk about actual final average cost to make part by the thousands over years.
.
if you can buy a 100 lb casting for $100. and some manufacturers can make that cheap. and if part machined in 5 hours at $50/hr thats $350. for finished part. i see that every day. sand casting and investment casting are more competitive in my experience than 3D printing
.
if you went to hardware store looking for a 1/2" ball valve for water and price is $5 to $10 and next to it is 3D printed valve for $100. which one do you think will be bought more often ??

 

[Rstewart]

I've worked with 3D printed Ti and I was impressed at the tolerances and finishes they can hold. No, it does still need post-process machining.

It's gonna be a few years, but I wouldn't want to bank on being a "machinist" in 20 years....

One of the more cool things I've gotten to work with is the big Gom 3D Blue light scanners, that's the most impressive machine ever.

 

[Ries]

I've worked with 3D printed Ti and I was impressed at the tolerances and finishes they can hold. No, it does still need post-process machining.

It's gonna be a few years, but I wouldn't want to bank on being a "machinist" in 20 years....

One of the more cool things I've gotten to work with is the big Gom 3D Blue light scanners, that's the most impressive machine ever.

are you talking about the wire depostion TI process that the Norwegians are selling to Boeing, or are you talking about powder deposition?
2 very different things.
the small scale powder stuff is what I was talking about for medical, and aerospace/ satellite- very high cost, small, and not in the realm of titanium forgings for aircraft at all.

The small powder deposition machines are certainly getting better every year. Still fiendishly expensive, and not competitive with stamping, small forgings, or machining in most cases, particularly offshore prices- but great for the niche market they are aimed at.

The big wire feed process is replacing titanium forgings that cost tens of thousands of dollars and, then require extensive machining even if near net forgings.

Neither is going to be the process that makes your now drop forged Kobalt 3/8" wrench from Home Depot, or your carb body for your weed wacker, any time soon.

 

[Pathogen]

IT IS COMMING
I am 77 years old and have seen all of the denials and hand ringing before. YOU CANT STOP TECHNOLOGY.The young brilliant kids fresh out of college could care less about machining and casting and moldmaking and forging. All of the afore mentioned processes impose toO many limitations on part design. They all want to design super strong hollow parts with INTENRAL RIBBING and mix and match material on the same part.No its not going to happen in 6 years.I ran the first masak cnc lathe in St louis in 1976.It didn't have a tv screen and max program length was about 80 lines. Twenty years later ,the programs were so long and flying thru the control so fast you couldn't read them .Parts were being MACHINED faster than the rapid moves on 20 year old machines . Change is coming get ready.Edwin Dirnbeck

What's a machine shop?

 

[Otis L.]

I was a tool and die maker in my earlier life and went into structural engineering. The 3D printer technology is emerging very fast in many uses. A trade magazine, Modern Steel Construction, which is an AISC publication had several examples of the adaptation of the technology. For instance, in China they have adapted 3D printers to print in concrete. the machine can print a small one story house in 24 hours. Another example was a 3D printer that is 40 feet x 40 feet by 32 feet that can print a complex structure that fits within this space. Another example is using robotic metal depositing printers that were used to print a metal pedestrian bridge spanning a canal in Amsterdam. My brother just recently retired from Boeing, and several years ago was credited with writing and sending a 3D program to the space station to print replacement parts in space. The technology is definitely here.

 

[Pattnmaker]

I got a quote for an aluminum 3d printed part about a week ago. I have a couple of shell coreboxes to make in aluminum coming up for cooling fins. The fins have an S curve in them and the bottom of the valley between the fins is just over 1/8" wide. The biggest one has fins 2" deep. Cutting that deep with a 1/8" ball in aluminum scares the crap out of me.

So I got a quote to 2d print the smallest one which is the only one I had completely modeled as a corebox. I was quoted in the neighbourhood of $5000 for an aluminum part 4"x6"x1.38". This would need to be hand polished but I did see a sample print that was fairly smooth. We have already made a corebox in Renshape but they still want one in aluminum for the shell process.

I am sure prices will go down but powdered metal as a raw material is a very expensive material. I don't see those costs going down. Powdered metals are dangerous as well handling costs are always going to be high.

 

[adama]

Based on digitals impact in the print world, yes it will become viable, no it will not replace existing technologies. All methods have pro's and cons, sorry but your never going to melt titanium and deposit it and end up with the same strength as a forged part. Just not going to happen, mankind has been beating the shit out of hot metal with a hammer since metal was discovered and theres a whole bunch of reasons why we will continue to do so.

 

[M.B. Naegle]

I don't get the doom and gloom 3D printer philospphy. "Get with the program, your carrier is changing!"

???

That's every stinking day, people! Tell us something we don't already know! When the manual lathe isn't cutting it and you have capital, you buy a CNC and learn how to use it. When you're wasting time setting up multiple operations on a 3 axis mill and have capital, you get into a 4 or 5 axis mill and learn how to use it. YES, 3D printing IS happening and it IS being applied, but that doesn't mean we're going out of business today. When the technology is cheaper and faster, why yes I will be getting into it and they'll likely be running along side my antique subtractive process's, because IMO no technology is ever completely obsolete, application just changes.

The day's going to come that you can have Amazon install your new Mazak 3D tool-steel printer for $60,000 via drone, but I guarantee guys will still be doing 2nd ops on an old Bridgeport J-head and making fixturing on their clapped out Speedio's.