Dear colleagues, I decided to write a few words in this thread to bring a drop of information about this situation from Russia.
If this is a "US-only" party, I'm sorry, the administration will probably just delete this message.
1. Unfortunately, in my opinion (I think I understand something in military affairs, my father served in the army for quite a long time and taught me something), Ukraine has absolutely no chance to survive in this war. They don't even have a chance to inflict unacceptable losses on the Russian army. I'm sorry, but it is.
2. The Ukrainian army found itself in a very difficult position. Where are the most combat-ready parts of the army in a country in which there has been a war for 8 years? Of course, on the front line! And these forces, the most combat-ready, were practically cut off from the rest of the country by flank attacks by the Russian Armed Forces. Most likely, these units will not be able, or almost not able, to take part in the defense of the rest of the country. The troops that are located in the rear are obviously worse trained.
3. It should be noted that Putin does not give a damn about the losses of his army. Against the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian army (in the region of Ukraine, where the war has been going on for 8 years), as many troops as possible from local separatists are used. The Russian army inflicts air strikes and artillery strikes in these places, but minimally participates in the operation on the ground. Such a slow advance of separatist forces on this sector of the front is also connected with etif - about 2-5 kilometers per day.
4. A little more on the topic of losses. I argued for a long time on this topic with my girlfriend. I said that if Czechoslovakia (and it is with it that I have the first analogy when I think about this invasion) in 1968 did not raise its paws, but fought, the USSR would have retreated. But my girlfriend objected to me - what if he had not backed down? Czechoslovakia would have lost perhaps a few million people killed, and in return would have received the same control from the USSR, only with much more embittered conscience soldiers and a ruined country.
I think my analogy is clear. My first impulse is to "bite my teeth into the ground and fight to the last." But what if Putin doesn't care about losses? What if there is no realistic number of losses for the Russian army, at which this crazy old man will say "that's it, stop, we won't go further"? This is a difficult question .... You can talk long and beautifully about how the Poles fought the Germans to the last and about Winston Churchill's famous speech "We will fight them on the beaches", but when it comes to saving the lives of you and your family, given the very uncertain prospect of victory, these arguments are no longer so beautiful. I well understand the motivation of the Soviet soldiers in the battle for Moscow in 1941 (when the Germans saw the center of Moscow through binoculars), but I do not understand the motivation of the German soldiers in the battle for Berlin in 1945.
5. As Ukrainian President Zelensky and Turkish President Erdogan correctly noted, all that NATO has done to help Ukraine is ridiculous arms deliveries and many words of support. To be fair, Turkey hasn't done more, but at least Erdogan has been honest and direct about it. I don't understand this behavior. NATO had the opportunity to stop the Russian army by proxy - just an ideal option. Ukraine is a rather large country with a population of 40 million people, and these are not savages with sticks at all. If you give them modern weapons and train them, in 8 years you could create a force that Putin would be afraid to fight. Yes, Ukraine is by no means a rich country - so give them weapons, as under the Lend-Lease program! Give them planes, give them air defense systems, give them tanks. Or is it better to pay for these savings with the lives of NATO soldiers in the future?
6. If I were a citizen of Ukraine, I would be very dissatisfied with my presidents. Yes, life has turned out so that we live next to the aggressive Mordor - so let's take this into account in our policy!? Remembering the Black Mirror episode - if it saves lives, it's worth fucking a pig live. Ukraine had no realistic chance of regaining Crimea and Donbass - so wouldn't it be better to give up claims to them under the threat of invasion? Talking about honor is fine, but a nerd won't gain honor if he doesn't give money to a jock right away, but after a couple of broken ribs. All the honor in the world is not worth a single human life. Another question is that there is no guarantee that Putin would have calmed down on this. As Churchill said, "Between war and dishonor, we have chosen dishonor, and we will get dishonor and war."
7. On the attitude of Russians to the war. You need to understand that in Russia there is a very strong social stratification depending on the place on the map. This naturally leads to very different political views. In Moscow, as far as I can tell, most people are against this war. In general, in all of Russia, I'm not sure. Posldenie sociological surveys showed that the Russians are unambiguously against the war. But when you are asked if you want war, you would rather think about enemy bombing and that you will be sent to attack under the threat of being shot, and not about the "small victorious war" (as Putin imagines it, and how he wants to present it to the Russians ).
