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I keep hearing that this winter will be bad for manufacturing in Europe.

Trueturning

Diamond
Joined
Jul 2, 2019
I have heard for years about how the dollar should not be a valued means of exchange and that the US was going broke.

Also that someone will push the button and ruin any chance of stable trade by starting a Nuclear war. I lived through all of that scare during the Cold War when it was of major concern and it is no way to live.

I think Europe has weighed the need in their involvement with Ukraine and made their decision. Energy wise all over the place there is infrastructure to transmit energy through pipelines. It is stupid to build it if it is not going to be used. Russia has a lot of blame in this situation. There is other blame too yet Russia produces the gas largely And has been selling it.
 

Ries

Diamond
Joined
Mar 15, 2004
Location
Edison Washington USA
Well if someone nukes the U.S. I doubt it will be China---they depend too much on American consumers to keep their manufacturing base running. and the U.S. economy, especially California is too dependent on China to start blasting away with nukes.
. And Russia?---I'm guessing they interact a whole lot with China so "as goes China--so goes Russia" to some extent.
Maybe the big worry will be some renegade bad actor who wishes to pay back the U.S. for some past indiscretion so there is that. Some opine that maybe de-population by something like EMP devices or maybe another round of weird viruses--Who knows, it's way out of my pay grade. Conspiracy theories only matter if they actually happen--by that time for us mere peons it's too late.
Best is as long as commerce and making the big bucks rules supreme death and destruction will be somewhat planned by the those who want more...against those who have something other people want but have leaders who will sell out to the BIG BUCKS.

Main thing is...until the nukes start flying and bombs start dropping make chips and grab on to all the bucks you can! If you totally rely on government your absolutely going to be disappointed.
Exports in total are 19% of China's GDP.
Of that 19%, 18% or so is to the USA.
So, less than 1/5 of 1/5, of their GDP is selling stuff to American consumers.
4% of their economy.
Sure, its a big chunk of change, but its highly unlikely to really be THE major decision point for their leaders.

We think we are so important.
 

jscpm

Titanium
Joined
May 4, 2010
Location
Cambridge, MA
Yeah, winter is coming. It's the white walkers that scare the shit out of me.

As for nukes, the Russians apparently can't defeat a country that is 1/4th their size and has an army 1/10th of theirs. So, before talking about nukes, maybe the Russians should learn how to effectively use rifles and things like that.

As far as Chinese nukes are concerned... when I used to work as a military contractor I remember there was this one case where photographs had come out of China showing advanced fighters in a secret hangar and everybody was trying to figure how they had developed and were producing this advanced fighter so quickly. So, an intelligence effort was made and it was discovered that the so-called "advanced fighters" were actually plywood mockups. The Chinese had built these very detailed and realistic looking mockups with wood and plastic and cleverly painted them so they looked like the real thing. That gives you an idea of the kind of thing the Chinese spend their military budget on.
 
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Trueturning

Diamond
Joined
Jul 2, 2019
Exports in total are 19% of China's GDP.
Of that 19%, 18% or so is to the USA.
So, less than 1/5 of 1/5, of their GDP is selling stuff to American consumers.
4% of their economy.
Sure, its a big chunk of change, but its highly unlikely to really be THE major decision point for their leaders.

We think we are so important.
Interesting stats which everyone should consider if they are interested.
They might be interesting.

 

standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
Exports in total are 19% of China's GDP.
Of that 19%, 18% or so is to the USA.
So, less than 1/5 of 1/5, of their GDP is selling stuff to American consumers.
4% of their economy.
Sure, its a big chunk of change, but its highly unlikely to really be THE major decision point for their leaders.

We think we are so important.
So what do you reckon is THE major decision point for China's leaders?

When comes to "GDP" it's worth looking at the sectors that make up GDP. A nation, or a states GDP is not solely determined by the selling of goods.
 
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gustafson

Diamond
Joined
Sep 4, 2002
Location
People's Republic
Exports in total are 19% of China's GDP.
Of that 19%, 18% or so is to the USA.
So, less than 1/5 of 1/5, of their GDP is selling stuff to American consumers.
4% of their economy.
Sure, its a big chunk of change, but its highly unlikely to really be THE major decision point for their leaders.

We think we are so important.

Fair enough
But
What about exports either politically linked to the US, or eventually destined for the US?
I have feeling the number is more significant.
While their domestic market is huge, I also think access to foreign currency is important, so exports may have an outsized impact over their 19 percent
IOW you buy oil in dollars, so if you do not have oil, you need to get dollars to buy oil. The best way to get dollars is to get paid in them, which means exporting
 

standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
Yeah, winter is coming. It's the white walkers that scare the shit out of me.

As for nukes, the Russians apparently can't defeat a country that is 1/4th their size and has an army 1/10th of theirs. So, before talking about nukes, maybe the Russians should learn how to effectively use rifles and things like that.

As far as Chinese nukes are concerned... when I used to work as a military contractor I remember there was this one case where photographs had come out of China showing advanced fighters in a secret hangar and everybody was trying to figure how they had developed and were producing this advanced fighter so quickly. So, an intelligence effort was made and it was discovered that the so-called "advanced fighters" were actually plywood mockups. The Chinese had built these very detailed and realistic looking mockups with wood and plastic and cleverly painted them so they looked like the real thing. That gives you an idea of the kind of thing the Chinese spend their military budget on.
Sneaky Chinese...Taiwan and Japan can relax knowing the aircraft they think are over flying thier waters are just wood mockups.
 

john.k

Diamond
Joined
Dec 21, 2012
Location
Brisbane Qld Australia
Another interesting development......the Oz energy giant has given up on the Betaloo Shale gas fracking project.....political pressure from the " hey ,us 'ms green too ,vote for us".......and sold out to a cartel of Yankee billionaires ....the project is thus far delayed at every step by a coalition of greens,conservationists,climate freaks.... ,and the local Abos ......the traditional owners............The Abos are likely to be the major stumbling block..........and Im be wondering if the yankee billionaires wont be hiring "The Wagner Group" to maybe change the Abos minds ........or send them off to the happy hunting ground.
 

john.k

Diamond
Joined
Dec 21, 2012
Location
Brisbane Qld Australia
If you follow Chairman Xi ,he has already stated that China will be an entirely self sustaining economy by 2035........the domestic market will entirely replace exports .........he also has said that when the domestic market is mature,China will only need a few mineral imports ,of which stockpiles will be established......in other words...China will be immune to sanctions..........incidentally,did you know Chairman Xi is a long time acquaintance ,since student days,of ex Oz PM Kevin Rudd.............and says Rudd was overthrown in a coup..............which in a way he was.
 

Scottl

Diamond
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
Location
Eastern Massachusetts, USA
Yeah, winter is coming. It's the white walkers that scare the shit out of me.

As for nukes, the Russians apparently can't defeat a country that is 1/4th their size and has an army 1/10th of theirs. So, before talking about nukes, maybe the Russians should learn how to effectively use rifles and things like that.

As far as Chinese nukes are concerned... when I used to work as a military contractor I remember there was this one case where photographs had come out of China showing advanced fighters in a secret hangar and everybody was trying to figure how they had developed and were producing this advanced fighter so quickly. So, an intelligence effort was made and it was discovered that the so-called "advanced fighters" were actually plywood mockups. The Chinese had built these very detailed and realistic looking mockups with wood and plastic and cleverly painted them so they looked like the real thing. That gives you an idea of the kind of thing the Chinese spend their military budget on.
Shades of WWII "Patton's Army" invasion force in Dover where the fake equipment was made by movie effects people. The idea was to make the Germans think Calais was the invasion point rather than Dunkirk.

"All war is based on deception."
- Sun Tzu
 

Trueturning

Diamond
Joined
Jul 2, 2019
If you follow Chairman Xi ,he has already stated that China will be an entirely self sustaining economy by 2035........the domestic market will entirely replace exports .........he also has said that when the domestic market is mature,China will only need a few mineral imports ,of which stockpiles will be established......in other words...China will be immune to sanctions..........incidentally,did you know Chairman Xi is a long time acquaintance ,since student days,of ex Oz PM Kevin Rudd.............and says Rudd was overthrown in a coup..............which in a way he was.
So they do not want to export anything? That is a surprise because exporting or importing is what makes the world go around. There has been so much investment in China from the US and others since China decided to change. I am glad they changed because the Chinese suffered under the old way.

Calculating the GDP and saying the US has little influence or stake in China really ignores the interest and commitment to invest there over the years. China would never have grown unless market reform was implemented.
 

jscpm

Titanium
Joined
May 4, 2010
Location
Cambridge, MA
While I am on the subject of Chinese military "technology" it might be relevant to mention an interesting episode from the First Opium War (1839-42). There was this captain in the British expeditionary force named Cunynghame who made it his business to investigate the Chinese "defenses" and later wrote a book about it. (FYI during the war the Chinese were totally helpless militarily. They killed like one British sailor or something like that in the whole war, and the guy that got killed was unarmed and trying to loot some village with a bunch of his buddies.)

Anyway, at one point Cunynghame investigated an abandoned "fort" allegedly containing "Chinese cannons" and suprisingly found that they had what appeared to be a carronade, which was a relatively advanced kind of cannon. This was suprising because earlier when he had inspected the large "fort" from the initial battle in the war, it had some 200 cannon, all Portuguese imports, yet none of them had quoins, so it was obvious the Chinese had no idea how to operate what they had bought. Yet, here was a carronade, at a small interior outpost no less.

So, he examined this "carronade" and noticed immediately that it had no tangent nut, so obviously could not operate. Closer examination revealed that it was not even made from parts, but had been cast whole from bronze, including the screw! He eventually figured out what happened: earlier in the war, the British forces had lost a brig named HMS Kite which had foundered in the shallow river. The Chinese dredged it up and recovered the heavily corroded carronade with which it was equipped. They then cleaned it up and just made a casting of the whole thing, fittings and all.

In the same vein it should be noted that the primary weapon of the Chinese in the Sino-Japanese war of 1894 was the bow and arrow (not kidding), 50 years after the Opium War. In fact, believe it or not, in the Opium War the Chinese military vessels used rocks with ropes as their anchors. In Europe it was the Romans that developed wrought iron anchors around 150 BC. The Chinese first saw wrought iron anchors on Portuguese vessels in 1510, yet 350 years later they were still using rocks.

This cultural behavior can be contrasted with that of Japan. In contrast to the Chinese, the Japanese started developing Portuguese military technology immediately as soon as they were exposed to it around 1520.
 

Ries

Diamond
Joined
Mar 15, 2004
Location
Edison Washington USA
So they do not want to export anything? That is a surprise because exporting or importing is what makes the world go around. There has been so much investment in China from the US and others since China decided to change. I am glad they changed because the Chinese suffered under the old way.

Calculating the GDP and saying the US has little influence or stake in China really ignores the interest and commitment to invest there over the years. China would never have grown unless market reform was implemented.
This may be true, but the USA never would have grown if the Brits hadnt invested here. In both cases, the past is past.
The chinese keep 51% of most companies with foreign investment.
of course exports are still a consideration to them, but their decisions, just like ours, are mostly made based on internal politics, and in neither country are politics always based on the best economic results.
 

Trueturning

Diamond
Joined
Jul 2, 2019
This may be true, but the USA never would have grown if the Brits hadnt invested here. In both cases, the past is past.
The chinese keep 51% of most companies with foreign investment.
of course exports are still a consideration to them, but their decisions, just like ours, are mostly made based on internal politics, and in neither country are politics always based on the best economic results.

Let’s not forget the Spanish or the French either. Exports and imports will continue even though they may become self sustaining. They are going to have to produce a lot more energy themselves before they can do that. They will not do it because they can get it easy enough. They do have to avoid any war as that would mess it all up. Like in Europe energy is critical. I doubt solar panels are going to change the whole major energy situation. They do not move around like gasoline or diesel which are very portable. Besides we are talking about winter in Europe I am reminding myself.

Edit add; FYI
“Abstract
Since 1978, when China announced its ‘open-door’ policy to pursue the country's long-term national goal, the Four Modernisations, more than 220,000 foreign funded ventures have been approved. By the end of 1994 some US$300 billion of contracted investment had been agreed and US$95 billion of utilized investment, making the country the most important recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the developing world. This paper analyses the phenomenon of FDI in China. It examines the different forms and composition of FDI, reviewing its development since the early days of the ‘open-door’ policy and analysing its importance for Chinese domestic and export industries, as well as Western investor companies. Furthermore, the paper focuses on the world-wide sources of FDI in China and its distribution by both region and industry. Additionally, it reviews the existing research on FDI in China, emphasizing the investment mode of equity joint venture.”
 
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standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
While I am on the subject of Chinese military "technology" it might be relevant to mention an interesting episode from the First Opium War (1839-42). There was this captain in the British expeditionary force named Cunynghame who made it his business to investigate the Chinese "defenses" and later wrote a book about it. (FYI during the war the Chinese were totally helpless militarily. They killed like one British sailor or something like that in the whole war, and the guy that got killed was unarmed and trying to loot some village with a bunch of his buddies.)

Anyway, at one point Cunynghame investigated an abandoned "fort" allegedly containing "Chinese cannons" and suprisingly found that they had what appeared to be a carronade, which was a relatively advanced kind of cannon. This was suprising because earlier when he had inspected the large "fort" from the initial battle in the war, it had some 200 cannon, all Portuguese imports, yet none of them had quoins, so it was obvious the Chinese had no idea how to operate what they had bought. Yet, here was a carronade, at a small interior outpost no less.

So, he examined this "carronade" and noticed immediately that it had no tangent nut, so obviously could not operate. Closer examination revealed that it was not even made from parts, but had been cast whole from bronze, including the screw! He eventually figured out what happened: earlier in the war, the British forces had lost a brig named HMS Kite which had foundered in the shallow river. The Chinese dredged it up and recovered the heavily corroded carronade with which it was equipped. They then cleaned it up and just made a casting of the whole thing, fittings and all.

In the same vein it should be noted that the primary weapon of the Chinese in the Sino-Japanese war of 1894 was the bow and arrow (not kidding), 50 years after the Opium War. In fact, believe it or not, in the Opium War the Chinese military vessels used rocks with ropes as their anchors. In Europe it was the Romans that developed wrought iron anchors around 150 BC. The Chinese first saw wrought iron anchors on Portuguese vessels in 1510, yet 350 years later they were still using rocks.

This cultural behavior can be contrasted with that of Japan. In contrast to the Chinese, the Japanese started developing Portuguese military technology immediately as soon as they were exposed to it around 1520.
The reasons for advances in military technology can be very interesting. The use of "prop" weapons and equipment was often used-"broomsticks" substituted for actual machine guns to save weight on Doolittle's bombers, inflatable tanks during WW2, use of paradummies, "Ruperts" at Normandy, the list is endless.
While subterfuge is still possible. modern technology makes it quite easy to see what is actually happening on the ground. Drones have really been a game changer....as simple as a cheap drone and a grenade in a cup makes it really tough for boots on the ground.
 

john.k

Diamond
Joined
Dec 21, 2012
Location
Brisbane Qld Australia
The mention of the "Opium Wars" is relevant........the Chinese havent forgotten the crimes of the foreigners,and are now flooding the west with addictive drugs as a payback.......Chairman Xi says China is only now erasing the shame of 200 years of foreign intervention ,and will go on to completely reverse the situation.
 

Milling man

Aluminum
Joined
Aug 6, 2021
Location
Moscow, Russia
I wouldn't underestimate the Chinese military, even though they haven't fought major wars in decades. My technologist, who worked in China for several years, says that there, in contrast to the "excellent" Russian army, they really do not like corruption and exaggeration of their capabilities. So they are really engaged in combat training and weapons development. And they have come a long way in this over the past 30 years.
 

jscpm

Titanium
Joined
May 4, 2010
Location
Cambridge, MA
Uh, comparing the Chinese "defences" in the Opium War to brooms on Doolittle's bombers, I think kind of misses the point here. Just to repeat from the above, the Chinese were using BOWS AND ARROWS in the Sino Japanese War of 1894 and that was almost FOUR HUNDRED YEARS after they had first exposed to Portuguese weaponry.

The Chinese have a set of cultural values that has very little regard for technology, and the consequence of that is that their technological development is chronically far behind that of other major civilizations.
 

standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
The Chinese have a set of cultural values that has very little regard for technology, and the consequence of that is that their technological development is chronically far behind that of other major civilizations.

Best I can come up with is it might be a big mistake to underestimate the abilities of China in many different areas---the ability to adapt, exploit, and dominate certain technology would be at the top of the list as demonstrated by how they knocked the living crap out of U.S. manufacturing.
It is entirely probable they could do the same thing militarily.
Only time will tell.
That is about all I have to offer at this point.
 
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Demon69

Titanium
Joined
Mar 3, 2013
Location
Area 69.
When I have an opinion that sounds 'facty' I frequently stop mid post, look up to see whether my mental image corresponds with reality or not.
lols
$25T debt? You are behind the times, man. We are about to hit 31 and will do so before the end of the year.
Its how our present monetary system is designed to work unfortunately, if there were no debt, there would be no money.

---------------------------------------

Anyone keeping an eye on the rise in excess deaths? Pretty sure that's not gonna be great for manufacturing.



 








 
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