I keep hearing that this winter will be bad for manufacturing in Europe.

[michiganbuck]

What part of thinking WW3 would not be any fun is hard to understand.?

I am in a high-danger zone and just making a new setup on one of my grinders.
A World War right now would poor timing.

Thinking about painting the machine blue, so I certainly don't want it melted.

Biden Calls on World to Punish Russia for Attempt to Annex Ukrainian Land

The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian officials and companies, and penalized foreign businesses aiding the Russian military. But officials are holding back on energy sanctions.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Trueturning]

I don´t know where You get Your disinformation from.
Here is a link to natgas prices.

Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart

Interactive chart illustrating the history of Henry Hub natural gas prices. The prices shown are in U.S. dollars.

www.macrotrends.net

US natgas traded under 2$ in 2020-

EU Natural Gas - 2023 Data - 2010-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote

European natural gas futures traded around €36 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday, after rising almost 7% in the previous session as a result of a revision in the details of a planned outage at the Troll natural gas facility by Norwegian gas system operator Gassco. The modification to the outage...

tradingeconomics.com

About 18€ == 20 $ today in the EU.

This is a bit over 10x the price in 2020.

There is inadequate "liquefaction and transportation capacity available at this time" as You said. In the US.
Yes.
This is why the US suppliers are now selling the LNG at 11x the price from 2 years ago.
BECAUSE the silly germans refused to return the compressor for NS1 to st petersburg where it compresses the natgas to deliver proper volumes.
There is simply too little natgas, and in a scarcity market prices skyrocketed.

There is high demand in the EU, because of the NS1 closure and the NS2 not being used, and the smaller pipelines being closed, and the US shipped natgas is the only supplier who can increase volumes significantly.
Norway increased a bit, but their volume is quite limited,
At a very high price == 20$ , partly due to shipping costs but mostly because the US oil majors are making bank and charging as much as they can.
The US extraction cost remain the same -- essentially zero.

The huge recent (7 years) US LNG overflow is mostly a spinoff of US fracking, and was mostly previously thrown away aka flared aka burned, because insufficient US demand made it uneconomical to sell.

The NS2 pipeline is (was) ready, and only needed the germans to turn the valve on.
The NS2 is much bigger than NS1, and would have supplied all the EU with abundant heating and power at a typical historical consumer cost around 9 c/kWh.
*Germany* refused to turn on NS2.
Putin referred to it, saying the EU can have cheap power tomorrow, just use the 10B$ pipeline already built.

With insufficient cheap russian natgas, companies and people have to use electric and oil heating.
Due to historical sharp demand peaks, prices have skyrocketed.
Power generally costs about 3-7 c/kWh in qty, 9 c retail, and reducing due to phase out of expensive nukes and ever more abundant PV (wind).

Today, german prices are upto 1€/kWh, 11x higher.
Spain and finland, typical prices are about 50c/kWh.
6x higher.
Madness.

I am NOT directly blaming the US energy companies. Never did.
They are the keystone supplier, and their mission is to make as much money as they can for their shareholders and CEO.
But the fact is that they are massively profiteering from the NS2 debacle.
A 700B€ EU bill was just approved in energy subsidies.
This essentially goes to the US energy companies.
Madness.
Thats 1000€ per person in a 700 m person economy.

And it will repeat every 6-9 months unless sane heads prevail.

History teaches us that economic scarcity aka "poor" leads to fast drastic changes in government policies.
No-one wants to be cold in the winter, and even a distant great-grandma in another country dying in the cold polarises attitudes.
No-one wants to be poor, but a 1500€ heating bill every 2 months will significantly hurt all EU citizens,
rich and poor.
Discretionary spending will plummet, leading to a huge knock-on effect in macro terms.

I think and expect that within about 3-4-6 months with 2-3 high energy bills and massive job losses, a part of the whole EU popula will turn against the ukraine, blaming them for the economic catastrophe we are all in.
Mostly with reason.
The war is terrible, and a bad idea, and to be regretted.

I am not a Putin fan, I just point out rationale, and facts on the ground.
Likewise, I am never anti-USA, I simply disagree with some decisions their senior politicians make, with global effects.
I apploud the good and sometimes criticise the bad. US/FI/ES/ whatever. And try to explain why.

Ha ha Han. America is to blame for everything. This is no surprise with you.

 

[SeymourDumore]

Ha ha Han. America is to blame for everything. This is no surprise with you.

Just ignore him and look at the very chart he posted about gas prices.
There was a $2-ish natural gas price sometime in early 2020 as a result of the pandemic.
Then in 2021 gas prices ( along with oil ) started a steady but slow climb. That is the result of inflation caused by the worldwide response to the pandemic.
No war, no sanctions, nothing. Just inflation. Inflation on energy, food and everything else.

There was never a $2 LNG price, not even in 2020. Lowest it ever got was around $4.50 in 2019, but back then the US Henry Hub index and the Amsterdam TTF was virtually identical.
Similarly, there was never ever a 11x LNG price. US originated LNG today is trading at a measly 3x compared the lowest level back in 2019.
There is no price gouging by US suppliers, and there is not enough capacity to supply Europe's need from US sources. Ergo, no reason to blow up the pipeline!

As far as Nordstream 2 and Germany ...
US objection aside, imagine if your energy dependence is already dedicated to a single source to the tune of 55% by way of primarily Nordstream1.
Now add another pipeline (NS2), supplied by the very same nation, very same Gazprom, only to further increase that dependency.
To use Hanermo's term, that is true madness!!!

 

[CalG]

Did some Polish official "thank" the US for destroying the pipes?

The Former Polish Defense Minister, Radek Sikorski, has attributed to the United States the sabotage of two pipelines. “Thank you, USA,” Sikorski wrote on Twitter. Sikorski was Minister of National Defense from 2005 - 2007 and served as Deputy Minister of National Defense and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, previously. He is currently an elected member of the European parliament.

President Joe Biden promised on February 7 to prevent Nord Stream 2 from becoming operational if Russia invaded Ukraine. "If Russia invades,” said Biden, “then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that."

[end quote]

 

[john.k]

Whats happened to the forums resident Russian correspondents.......maybe Putins drafted them...........I see a news piece on the new Russian "trainees" and the guys were so old and doddery they had to be helped down from the backs of army trucks.........then they sort of trotted across the 'battlefield' and took up positions...........a couple were holding their guns the wrong way,and another guy was firing a heavy machine gun at arms length ,no doubt the noise was hurting his ears.

 

[SeymourDumore]

Did some Polish official "thank" the US for destroying the pipes?

Well, if you want to run with that narrative...
Sikorsky did NOT thank the US for destroying the pipelines, he only said "Thank You USA" at the aftermath of the sabotage.
Could you imagine a scenario where the US supplied intelligence, equipment and aid to Poland for the Poles to blow up the pipeline?

Afterall, Poland has a valid historical reason to be worried about Russia, but moreover, they have a lot to gain from a reduced capacity of pipeline gas flow between Russia and Europe.
They have seaports, re-gasification plants, storage facilities and pipelines accessing landlocked EU nations.
That's pretty much everything one needs to become a primary player in Europe's energy future, where LNG ( regardless of origin ) absolutely is going to play a major role in the coming years.

 

[michiganbuck]

You walk into a tough Detroit bar and just keep making rude nasty wisecracks, and what would you expect to happen? about the time you express your right to free speech, your nose is busted.

A whole lot like keep mouthing off to Russia.

 

[michiganbuck]

One good thing about toy bobbleheads is that when they annoy you, you can toss them in the dumpster.
The real ones are dangerous. @4;09 @6:01 and @8:111

TUCKER CARLSON: What really happened to the Nord Stream pipeline?

Fox News host Tucker Carlson reacts to the gas leaks from the Nord Stream pipelines and analyzes what may have caused the incident on Tuesday's "Tucker Carlson Tonight."

www.foxnews.com

 

[hanermo]

Yes.
In april 2020 us natgas was 1.88$, according to the chart I posted.

Today, EU natgas is 16-18€ == 20$, in the EU.
here

Natural Gas

www.powernext.com

THAT is why the energy prices went to 50c - 100 cents / kWh, about 11x historical norms.

Gas for cars:
You quote US gas aka petrol at 1.75$ per gallon - as high.
In the EU it´s about 2€/l == 9 $ per gallon now.
How about that ?

Exchange rate:
Historically, the USD == 1.2-1.4 vs the €.
For about 15 years.
We can agree on a fudge factor of 15%.

The EU natgas is MUCH more expensive than the US natgas.
As I said.
THAT is why US energy companies are making massive windfall profits, by selling the LNG at nearly 10x their "normal" price.
Liquifaction and shipping account for a very small part of the cost, perhaps 0.5-1$ / unit at todays 20$ prices.
== 5%.

Why do YOU think the natgas and oil and fuel prices went up massively in the EU ?
Ukraine produces approx 0% of EU hydrocarbons.
What the EU produces mostly via UK and norway is heavy oil, with some little natgas as a byproduct.

The prices went up because the german government under US encouragement refused to return the compressor turbine to russia, near st petersburg, where it is needed.
And because the US managed to close off a turkey-transiting pipeline, somewhat.
And because the new better bigger NS2 was not opened by germany, under US political pressure.

Russia did NOT close the NS2 pipeline, after spending 10B€ to build it.
Germany did.
Russia was and is willing to sell cheap natgas to the EU -- as their president Mr Putin recently said.
What the US president Mr Biden recently said was that the NS2 would not continue to exist.

Now, the pipeline is blown up -- ensuring EU energy scarcity for many moons and a very heavy financial burden on 700 million EU popula, mostly profited from by the US natgas energy companies.
Outstanding !

The US president publicly threatens the major infra pipeline between germany and russia, owned by them, and then it is mysteriously blown up within a week.
And the US energy companies greatly benefit.
Madness.

LOOK AT YOUR OWN DAMNED CHART!!!
A year ago, Oct 5, 2021 US HH price was $6.37 / MMBTU, virtually the same as the price in Sept 25, 2022, $6.75 / MMBTU!
There is no $20/MMBTU anywhere except for a sudden, one time spike in February of 2021!
Who cares about 2020??? That was pandemic time!!! US gasoline was at $1.75/Gallon! Nothing to do with war, Russia, US or anything!!!

Again look at your own chart, expand to 3 years!!!

Oh, just for the record, 18 Euro = 17.64 USD

 

[Mark Rand]

But the US is exporting LESS LNG at the moment that it was last year. This is because the Freeport LNG plant hasn't reopened yet after a major explosion earlier in the year.

 

[Trueturning]

Yes.
In april 2020 us natgas was 1.88$, according to the chart I posted.

Today, EU natgas is 16-18€ == 20$, in the EU.
here

Natural Gas

www.powernext.com

THAT is why the energy prices went to 50c - 100 cents / kWh, about 11x historical norms.

Gas for cars:
You quote US gas aka petrol at 1.75$ per gallon - as high.
In the EU it´s about 2€/l == 9 $ per gallon now.
How about that ?

Exchange rate:
Historically, the USD == 1.2-1.4 vs the €.
For about 15 years.
We can agree on a fudge factor of 15%.

The EU natgas is MUCH more expensive than the US natgas.
As I said.
THAT is why US energy companies are making massive windfall profits, by selling the LNG at nearly 10x their "normal" price.
Liquifaction and shipping account for a very small part of the cost, perhaps 0.5-1$ / unit at todays 20$ prices.
== 5%.

Why do YOU think the natgas and oil and fuel prices went up massively in the EU ?
Ukraine produces approx 0% of EU hydrocarbons.
What the EU produces mostly via UK and norway is heavy oil, with some little natgas as a byproduct.

The prices went up because the german government under US encouragement refused to return the compressor turbine to russia, near st petersburg, where it is needed.
And because the US managed to close off a turkey-transiting pipeline, somewhat.
And because the new better bigger NS2 was not opened by germany, under US political pressure.

Russia did NOT close the NS2 pipeline, after spending 10B€ to build it.
Germany did.
Russia was and is willing to sell cheap natgas to the EU -- as their president Mr Putin recently said.
What the US president Mr Biden recently said was that the NS2 would not continue to exist.

Now, the pipeline is blown up -- ensuring EU energy scarcity for many moons and a very heavy financial burden on 700 million EU popula, mostly profited from by the US natgas energy companies.
Outstanding !

The US president publicly threatens the major infra pipeline between germany and russia, owned by them, and then it is mysteriously blown up within a week.
And the US energy companies greatly benefit.
Madness.

Wow you really do think the US has such power! Amazing because Europeans are much the same as far as their disposition as Americans are we all came from the same place - at least many of us here. Consider that largely Europe and the U.S. are the same people. BTW gasoline here is about $4.00 per gallon. We have always been under what Europe has been charging.

 

[standardparts]

But the US is exporting LESS LNG at the moment that it was last year. This is because the Freeport LNG plant hasn't reopened yet after a major explosion earlier in the year.

Does the supply of U.S. LNG have any impact on manufacturing where you are living?

 

[standardparts]

One good thing about toy bobbleheads is that when they annoy you, you can toss them in the dumpster.
The real ones are dangerous. @4;09 @6:01 and @8:111

TUCKER CARLSON: What really happened to the Nord Stream pipeline?

Fox News host Tucker Carlson reacts to the gas leaks from the Nord Stream pipelines and analyzes what may have caused the incident on Tuesday's "Tucker Carlson Tonight."

www.foxnews.com

The question posed by by Tucker Carlson was:
"what happened to the nordstream pipeline"

Hell, we really don't have the full story on the origin and handling of Covid yet and it's been over two years.
At least, all this latest drama, should it result in a nuke exchange will at least be over with. And if not, and conventional war rages manufacturing in the U.S. should become quite lucrative.

 

[Trueturning]

“At least, all this latest drama, should it result in a nuke exchange will at least be over with. And if not, and conventional war rages manufacturing in the U.S. should become quite lucrative.”

Neat I will believe it when I see it.

 

[Mark Rand]

Does the supply of U.S. LNG have any impact on manufacturing where you are living?

Yes, to the extent that the cement factory that I live in sight of has electricity bills of £4million and gas bills of £500,000 per month...

 

[standardparts]

Had thought the UK was in a better position regarding energy than other EU countries but it appears that is not the case:

"The UK imports around 50% of its gas from the international market and most homes in England and Wales are heated by mains gas supply. Gas is also used to fuel around a third of the UK's electricity generation, so rising gas prices will usually lead to rising electricity prices."

"Trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) has become increasingly important to the UK in late 2021 and early 2022. LNG is imported to the UK via ship and reaches the UK's three LNG terminals in Milford Haven and Medway. In 2022, the UK has sourced its LNG from 12 different countries. The United States has been the largest source of LNG, followed by Qatar, Peru, Angola and Russia. In 2020, the UK was the second-largest European importer of LNG, behind only Spain."

Rest of the article...here...

Trends in UK imports and exports of fuels - Office for National Statistics

Trends in oil and gas imports and exports to and from the UK in 2021 and 2022 including values, changing trade partners and supply chains.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[hanermo]

This is about the scariest post ever.

One single airburst nuke anywhere in the oecd will destroy every electrical transformer and microprocessor within line of sight due to emp.
Just one.
This would kill every truck, cars, water mains, elevators, hospitals, trains, electricity.
All cities would become unliveable because there would be no clean water within a few days, no food, no employment.
Line of sight means about 1000 km from the epicenter.
Value of money would vanish,

At least, all this latest drama, should it result in a nuke exchange will at least be over with.

 

[Scottl]

This is about the scariest post ever.

One single airburst nuke anywhere in the oecd will destroy every electrical transformer and microprocessor within line of sight due to emp.
Just one.
This would kill every truck, cars, water mains, elevators, hospitals, trains, electricity.
All cities would become unliveable because there would be no clean water within a few days, no food, no employment.
Line of sight means about 1000 km from the epicenter.
Value of money would vanish,

Not 100% correct. The mechanism that causes damage is high voltage induced on wires and cables. The longer the wire the higher the voltage. Microprocessors in spare equipment not connected to anything might be ok. Also, vehicles and equipment shielded by well-bonded steel, thick masonry or earth would be better protected and any of the older vehicles with simple point triggered ignition would probably still run.

It would certainly cause much of the damage you describe and make life unlivable for many.

 

[standardparts]

Not 100% correct. The mechanism that causes damage is high voltage induced on wires and cables. The longer the wire the higher the voltage. Microprocessors in spare equipment not connected to anything might be ok. Also, vehicles and equipment shielded by well-bonded steel, thick masonry or earth would be better protected and any of the older vehicles with simple point triggered ignition would probably still run.

It would certainly cause much of the damage you describe and make life unlivable for many.

No computers? No PM? Oh...say it ain't so.

 

[michiganbuck]

QT: (One single airburst nuke anywhere in the....
Nobody would be fool enough to send one nuke.
The first punch wins the war...and then after a few minutes, the winner loses all..

Probably take a few days or a week after half the world is in ruin to find out who won.