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I keep hearing that this winter will be bad for manufacturing in Europe.

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The factor is the rise of the US$...........in $ terms the oil price falls.........in any other currency ,the price is rising rapidly,greedy governments use the green excuse ,and raise oil taxes .....and so the rest of the world is headlong into recession...........much talk about millions of BEV cars......but the damn things cant be bought......years long waiting lists on fairly priced EVs .......only the ridiculous costly Tesla is available.
 
Hybrids now are popular here it is kind of transitional really. People are agreeable to green if they can actually afford it. Yet with a ten to twenty year payback it is out of reach for most.
 
Wow that low amazing! I would bet that it would be higher.
Oh I am still in La La land prognosticating on markets based on my politics- I want to see the OPEC+ move crash and burn.
I did look at the chart- the cut rallied price sufficiently to break that nice declining trend we had going.
What has happened is the covid rally spiked briefly as the invasion commenced, settled back to the covid trend and then reversed, settling down as the covid disruption in the sector has started to dissipate as producers again ramp production to meet demand.
If you look at the number in US we are producing equal barrels as per pre-covid.
So....
The Saudi/russian crap stalled that selloff a bit- lacking that move we would I believe settled back further as the market worked out covid issues.
My take is essentially that the market manipulation of production cut would not be sufficient to overcome other supply/demand metrics.

Lets see how this works out.

Oh- lets be perfectly clear.
The petroleum age is going to end.
That end is not that far away- we tend as humans to be immersed in our 'age' or times if you will.
Society has deep momentum in what is our practices to meet our day to day from the industrial investment in current tech to the damn carts we use to haul us around.
We all see and participate in the friction created as the transition out of this age into the next epoch occurs but for now crude and the various other products of sequestered organic debris are still dominating our energy sector.
 
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Oh I am still in La La land prognosticating on markets based on my politics- I want to see the OPEC+ move crash and burn...............
Saudi Arabia greatly influences the members of OPEC. Saudi spends $Billions with the U.S. defense industry. ( Latest was approval in August of $3Billion purchase)....so how much does OPEC (Saudi) oil profits translate into jobs and profit for U.S. industry?
Lots of 'moving parts' involved over oil----to say the least.
 
Yeah good point- I don't know but I suppose a glance at some export numbers for the US would be in order.
We are not that much of an export economy.
I do wonder how much of a contribution our weapons/defense stuff has to those numbers.

edit- we are huge in that the US produces some 35% of global defense exports but I have not pinned down what percent of our total exports that represents.
Some 1/4 of our defense exports do head to the Saudis.....
But our total exports are just ~10% of GDP.
Big number given the size of the economy though.
 
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Yeah good point- I don't know but I suppose a glance at some export numbers for the US would be in order.
We are not that much of an export economy.
I do wonder how much of a contribution our weapons/defense stuff has to those numbers.

edit- we are huge in that the US produces some 35% of global defense exports but I have not pinned down what percent of our total exports that represents.
Some 1/4 of our defense exports do head to the Saudis.....
Saudi defense spending results in lots of jobs and profits for the United States, but now Saudi appears to be partnering with Russia which has created demands from the current U.S. Administration to stop selling to the Saudis.
Upside is the stronger the Russian economy gets with the help of Saudi Arabia, China and now India, the greater the response in the EU is to spend money to upgrade thier military....which means our factories keep busy---really busy. Saudi spending gets replaced by EU spending.
As for a cold winter in Europe....Am sure the Euro's will find supplies of gas and oil although at higher prices to keep thier industry humming to bring in revenue because they need money to buy weapons to counter the 'threat' from Russia...same has been going on since the end of WW2.
Maybe some day the world's economies won't be beholden to the price of gas and oil but right now it's all one big cage match between those making decisions.
It all seems like a big game that's costing us common people a whole lot of money.
"War Is A Racket" (Gen. Smedley Butler)
 
Yeah I get the 'military industrial complex' angle but...
I am not a pacifist- I want people/nations to be armed to the teeth so as to repel an attack should it come.
And it seems to be born out that those attacks will come.
A greater truism then profiting from conflict is the simple propensity of humans to be in those conflicts.

I was just wondering about the Norman Conquest- food for thought on our grand history of war..
 
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Oh I am still in La La land prognosticating on markets based on my politics- I want to see the OPEC+ move crash and burn.
I did look at the chart- the cut rallied price sufficiently to break that nice declining trend we had going.
What has happened is the covid rally spiked briefly as the invasion commenced, settled back to the covid trend and then reversed, settling down as the covid disruption in the sector has started to dissipate as producers again ramp production to meet demand.
If you look at the number in US we are producing equal barrels as per pre-covid.
So....
The Saudi/russian crap stalled that selloff a bit- lacking that move we would I believe settled back further as the market worked out covid issues.
My take is essentially that the market manipulation of production cut would not be sufficient to overcome other supply/demand metrics.

Lets see how this works out.

Oh- lets be perfectly clear.
The petroleum age is going to end.
That end is not that far away- we tend as humans to be immersed in our 'age' or times if you will.
Society has deep momentum in what is our practices to meet our day to day from the industrial investment in current tech to the damn carts we use to haul us around.
We all see and participate in the friction created as the transition out of this age into the next epoch occurs but for now crude and the various other products of sequestered organic debris are still dominating our energy sector.
QUOTE:
"The petroleum age is going to end.
That end is not that far away- we tend as humans to be immersed in our 'age' or times if you will."


Don't bet the farm on it. The energy in a barrel of oil is equivalent to 1700kWh or 40.5 kWh per gallon. And it is easily portable, unlike electricity.

Compare that with this chart of usable battery capacity for various EVs.


It may someday be possible to totally replace oil but it is premature to say that end is "not that far away".
 
Oh- lets be perfectly clear.
The petroleum age is going to end.
That end is not that far away

Why?
Cui bono?

With the end of the petroleum age comes the end of human autonomy. It does not have to be this way but that is the direction world leaders and their "partners" are taking us.

So I ask again... Cui bono?
 
Why- demand will wan as applications are displaced by better solutions.
I often say this age is characterized by the capture of chemical energy if a manner which is barely more advanced than a camp fire.
Most think the demand peak for crude is already behind us.
The coming decades will see it collapse.
 
That end is measured in decades- rather near to my mind in the breadth of human history.
Says who, the folks pushing "alternative energy"?

I have yet to see a practical replacement for liquid hydrocarbon fuel, even in a laboratory setting.

I still remember the predictions of a flying car in every garage, cities in the clouds and all the other predictions of "futurists".

The reality is that much of the future is predicated on the accomplishments of scientists and engineers, not social planners and as we've seen in parts of Europe the "green" future is not so grand. You can't heat your home on predictions and wishes nor run a vehicle on "someday they'll achieve".
 
Why?
Cui bono?

With the end of the petroleum age comes the end of human autonomy. It does not have to be this way but that is the direction world leaders and their "partners" are taking us.

So I ask again... Cui bono?
I read an article years ago called "Gunpowder and Gasoline, Portable Power for the People" that demonstrated exactly why these inventions liberated man from centralized control. Water powered installations were fixed by geography and steam engines were huge, heavy, and expensive. Workers were bound to these installations and the men who owned them. Today a man can load a pickup with chain saws, generator, and other tools plus cans of spare fuel and go carve out a homestead in remote areas.

In the far north snowmobiles have revolutionized life compared to sleds and dog teams. A snowmobile and spare fuel can fit in a small shed vs the real estate to maintain a dog team and the enormous amount of food they require year round.
 
I think green is great but it should be phased in gradually. Politicians are pushing these BEV and other Green energy projects because they can afford them with the money they made through insider trading or stolen/extorted funds from the taxpayers. Look at Senator Bob Corker, flat broke in 2006 and retired in 2019 with a net worth of $69 million.

According to the news, 25% of all BEV payments are $1000 or more/month. How is this sustainable? People are drowning themselves in $900B in CC debt. Interest rates are rising and will only add to their mountain of debt. One little hiccup in the economy and the glass house comes down.

Then, We The Taxpayers get to bail out the “to big to fail” all over again.
 
"And it seems to be born out that those attacks will come."

Hmm. What nation attacked the US most recently?

Just saying it's maybe time to take a good, hard look at what Prince Bone Saw is doing. I think the present skeptiscism from the government is a step in the right direction.
 
Saudi Arabia was most recent.

The california church group death was unique. There's still a monument there. Nobody believed the balloon came from mainland Japan, until a geologist identified the ballast sand as originating from one particular beach in Japan.
 
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