New Electrical Vehicle manufacturer VinFast to locate in North Carolina U.S.A.

[hanermo]

The moral is:
WILL VinFast actually make EV batteries or components in scale, in the US, in the medium/long term of 5/10 years ??

My opinion is that this has about a 2% probability.

It is NOT that they might not actually make some sort of plant and hire some people and make some batteries or components.
They very well might -- ..

But to be economically viable, those batteries must be as good as the market leader,
must be produced in scale,
must reduce costs // prices in line with the market leader,
must have the energy density of the market leader,

... and ideally must have some benefit vs the market leader in being smaller, lighter, more energy dense (most critical), cheaper, easier to produce or something similar.

So far, for 15 years, we have seen exactly zero technologically superior products to the tesla // market leader battery solutions.
Maybe 40 deployed batteries with 10 main brands using them in leafs, renaults, bolts, porsches, vw, etc.
Exactly zero of them are Really Really Really good in something.

It is Hard to make a really good new motive battery.
So the above and current companies are land grabs and flim flam like sakti3, which was written down to zero after a 35 M $ buy out for solid state. Lies, basically, iirc.

More than 200 companies are now pursuing this goal with multi-million financing.
Obviously, Pretty Soon Now, 5 y, several will have real working products.

Those companies who solve it will triumph, but more importantly the battery tech will improve either a bit or more likely dramatically.

I think every scandinavian leader and us leader who has supported these flimflam battery mirages should be made personally responsible financially.

 

[Scottl]

Hanermo,

I have to say that while I applaud your loyalty to Tesla it has led to a blind spot regarding other companies.

Numerous researchers including those at universities are exploring improved battery technologies which would eventually be brought to market by private firms.

Also, AFAIK Tesla is still building packs using 18650s, same as most everyone else. Musk has done an admirable job but I see many other brands of EVs around here so while they currently have the lead as an early starter other players should not be underestimated.

 

[jaguar36]

But to be economically viable, those batteries must be as good as the market leader,
must be produced in scale,
must reduce costs // prices in line with the market leader,
must have the energy density of the market leader,

In 'normal' times that certinaly would have been true, but right now the demand is so high for EVs that even crappy ones that are far from the market leader have long wait lists. If they get the factory built and can start shipping cars *soon* they could very easily be successful even with a sub-par product. I don't think demand for EVs is going to be dropping off anytime soon so they will have quite a number of years to catch up in performance even if their intial offering is mediocre.

Of course there has only been 1 successful new car company in the US in the last 100 years so I think you're probably right about the 2% chance.

Also, AFAIK Tesla is still building packs using 18650s, same as most everyone else. Musk has done an admirable job but I see many other brands of EVs around here so while they currently have the lead as an early starter other players should not be underestimated.

Tesla's largest produciton vehicles are using 2170's now, and they have just started using 4680's. However this is just a designation of the size of the individual battery cells. (18x65mm vs 21x70mm) While there are some benefits to moving to the larger size cells, and some technology advancements required to utilize those sizes, the real change has been in the chemistry and the manufacturing of the cells. Tesla/Panasonic has gone through numerous different revisions to the chemistry in the cells. So not only is the latest Tesla 18650 very different in performance from a Samsung, LG or whoever's 18650, it is also very different from the 18650 cell that was in a 2012 Tesla.

 

[standardparts]

Elon Musk--"Ted Talk" 4/14/2022

First 10 minutes pre-recorded in the Giga factory. Fairly interesting.

Balance of interview recored live in front of an audience. Very interesting and current as it covers the Twitter purchase offer.

Good questions asked and much about defining moments, not all good, in Musk's life.

Runs less than an hour.

Elon Musk talks Twitter, Tesla and the future — live at TED2022 - YouTube