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New Shop and financing

standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
Risky Business....

By the time you are fluent, the surge will be over.

You may have written orders, but try getting them to take parts when the turn comes.
Let alone trying to git them to pay for parts that they can't sell.

"Factoring" for AR parts?
I don't think so...


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox
"Risky Business....
By the time you are fluent, the surge will be over."

Thought of the risky business part when I opened an email this morning for AR15 Billet lower receivers $69.77. All the standard selling points---however valid they are:
  • Machined from a billet of 7075-T6 aluminum
  • Stripped
  • Black hardcoat anodized
  • Integral trigger guard
  • Threaded bolt catch roll pin


Of course hey sold out almost immediately but am seeing other parts that signal the start of dumping/unloading AR parts. Was wondering what just the piece of 7075, broaching the mag well, and anodizing alone come to---on top of machine time.
 

Ox

Diamond
Joined
Aug 27, 2002
Location
West Unity, Ohio
OK, well IDK about the case of these parts, but there are oodles of AR parts coming in from China, and have been for the last ??? 10 ??? years? Of course more and more as time goes on.

I have seen some of these come through here that looked good to the eye, but if you knew the part, and what to look for, they were absolutely junk!

Not just that, but as you know - if you bought it from China, it's yours, good or bad.

2 Tiers up from me got in a boat load of [plastic] lowers. But as the mfgr tapped the thread for the buffer tube, the part flexed away from the tap and resulted in an oversized threaded hole.* The customer had already bought issued serial numbers for these lowers, and if they scrap them, they need to pay again to have them annulled. (as the story was told to me)

So, they asked me for a cpl thousand (?) tubes that had an oversized thread to match.

I sent them back some samples that had a pitch in the ballpark of their needs, but this would require that we make nuts that were the same oversize, but that's easy.... BUT, the big issue was that the keyed worsher that slips over the thread wouldn't fit. (oh yeah....)

So then they ask me if I can make the thread pitch O/S but still make the worshers fit?

Well, yeah, I guess .....

So then we ran them O/S and then clipped the tops of the threads after being rolled to fit the worsher hole.

Then they came back and complained about the threads being flat and looking bad.

Apparently there is only accountants and assembly technicians that work at this place. Not someone that actually understand the limitations of physics?

We did not end up producing the parts, which made me feel a bit better - knowing that down the road someone might want to replace the butt-stock assy for whatever reason, only to find out that the lower was not built to "interchangeable parts" tollerancing.

But then - if you bought a plastic gun ....


* and would seem to have to be out of alignment as well, but I cannot confirm that.
But I just don't know how it couldn't be...


-------------

Another that comes to mind right off was some Buffer Tubes that came in from China. These parts looked NICE! They had a very nice plate job on them, and had the MFGR (well, the assembling and retailing company anyway) it had their name all laser etched on them. Looked REALLY nice.

But of the few samples that I was given, I found that the tube thickness under the keyway slot was WAY too thin. It is s'posed to be .050-.055 thick. These were down to .012 and you could see that the web was so thin that they were already starting to buckle and wave, and they hadn't even been assembled yet!

Well sure, we're not perfect here either. We could prolly screw them up too. But the difference is that the customer should never see that part, and if they doo, they would Shirley be asking for replacement parts. But if they bought them from Cjina, they will have to try to make doo with what they have - if at all possible.


------------------


Point being - some folks would pay extra for parts known to have been made State-side.
(some)
Are these $70 units local?


----------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox
 
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Houdini16

Aluminum
Joined
Nov 28, 2017
My tool vendor said he just helped a rich guy setup 2 Haas UMC's to make AR parts, thought he was going to clean up, Now the vendor said he is looking to sell the machines.
And also, just because a market has tons of supply and demand, doesn't mean its flooded, it just looks that way.
But as a side note, you do know that a forced recession has already started, bad time to start a CNC business, wait a year or so.
 

Doug

Diamond
Joined
Dec 16, 2002
Location
Pacific NW
.............................................. but with no time in business we can't find anyone to finance to PO's to get the equipment and material. Any ideas or places that work within these parameters would be helpful. Also my partner has excellent credit. (+800)

Think of it this way, if you had money to lend and someone in your situation approached you for a loan would you give it to them?
 

Ox

Diamond
Joined
Aug 27, 2002
Location
West Unity, Ohio
My tool vendor said he just helped a rich guy setup 2 Haas UMC's to make AR parts, thought he was going to clean up, Now the vendor said he is looking to sell the machines.
And also, just because a market has tons of supply and demand, doesn't mean its flooded, it just looks that way.
But as a side note, you do know that a forced recession has already started, bad time to start a CNC business, wait a year or so.

Apparently you don't understand the AR market?
It is a rubber band economy to which all other rubber bands are measured.

You can be running balls out for 6 months, a year, maybe more, but not usually.
And by the time a year has come around, everyone has been scurrying for any shop that they can find to make parts, and now the supply is WAY up, and about that time - those that were gunna buy one - this scare around - has now bought one (or two? They git lonely don't'chew know?) and now the bottom falls out almost overnight.

Now you have record supply*, and bottom of market. Production is quelled as quickly as possible, and warehouses fill up all over the place. Businesses that are upside down are dumping inventory for $.50/$1 just trying to eat another day.

This is NOT an industry to give credit terms to!

The machines that run these parts can (and have) set idle for 2 full years before there is any call to make more.


* It gits "flooded" to say the least.


------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox
 
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standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
------------------


Point being - some folks would pay extra for parts known to have been made State-side.
(some)
Are these $70 units local?


----------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox
Can send you a link to the vendor and name of the source....but I'll be darned if I can see any kind of icon for email or pm or even contact info for you--but be this new site.....maybe PM me and then I'll respond that way....
 

Ox

Diamond
Joined
Aug 27, 2002
Location
West Unity, Ohio
Can send you a link to the vendor and name of the source....but I'll be darned if I can see any kind of icon for email or pm or even contact info for you--but be this new site.....maybe PM me and then I'll respond that way....

Huh, yeah, it looks like some of that kind'a info needs to be hammered out for the new software yet too eh?

Well, the Private Message part of this software is MUCH better than previous, so you can ping me that way.
Just go to my name/avitar and click, and you should find a "start conversation" link there.
I guess that is what they call "private messaging" here now.

But with that said - I am not sure what MFGR that you are asking about?
Are you sure that you are asking the right person?
It seems that you are asking about the $70 lower?
That's not me.


------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox
 

triumph406

Titanium
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Location
ca
I would think anybody thinking of making AR recievers would be insane. 'specially starting the way the OP is.

-----------------------------

On the other hand maybe you experts should tell the people who consistantly have pallets of AR lowers at my local anodizer why their making a bad business decision making AR lowers.

I suspect their too busy making lowers to care what the rest of us think.
 
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Garwood

Diamond
Joined
Oct 10, 2009
Location
Oregon
I recently bought a load of HMC tooling from a gun manufacturer. Some AR stuff, but mostly other things. They started about 10 years ago. They owned a couple 5 acre parcels with several 10K sq ft buildings full of HMC's. They had just bought another 5 acre parcel and were building a huge concrete tilt up and had robot fed Japanese machines of some sort on order for delivery as soon as the building was done. The owners started out with deep pockets. The guy I was dealing with was their first employee. He was hired as a button pusher. He had a new King Ranch with expensive goodies and he didn't seem to worried about anything.
 

mhajicek

Titanium
Joined
May 11, 2017
Location
Minneapolis, MN, USA
I recently bought a load of HMC tooling from a gun manufacturer. Some AR stuff, but mostly other things. They started about 10 years ago. They owned a couple 5 acre parcels with several 10K sq ft buildings full of HMC's. They had just bought another 5 acre parcel and were building a huge concrete tilt up and had robot fed Japanese machines of some sort on order for delivery as soon as the building was done. The owners started out with deep pockets. The guy I was dealing with was their first employee. He was hired as a button pusher. He had a new King Ranch with expensive goodies and he didn't seem to worried about anything.
Fair, but consider who's who. These aren't the current startup, they're the established competition. Ten years ago would have been a great time to get in.
 

latheman78

Cast Iron
Joined
May 28, 2022
Location
Southern Ca Mtns.
Well, in all fairness, me, my wife, and two kids were all supported by a business started with $10K (all borrowed).
(1989 dollars)

So ...


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox
You have 3 helpers that worked for hugs and kisses, I think the OP has helpers that want paid in money.

As for the OP the only thing that hasn't been covered is a P.O. is no guarantee of income.
The customer can go out of business or bankrupt and the income can end. A verbal agreement is as good as the paper it is written on.

Sorry to be a Debbie downer, considering the shape the country is in, combined with going in somewhat blind I would suggest minimizing overhead, and trying to make as few payments as possible. Start in someone's garage, with a PC driven CNC Mill, then if the items sell, look to swoop on a nice used VMC when the upcoming recession hits.

Your learning curve combined with payments on a machine and rent plus all those things you will have to buy you did not budget for plus marketing a new product is a big deck
stacked against you.
 

LOTT

Hot Rolled
Joined
Nov 28, 2016
It's been hinted at, but I don't see anyone pointing out what I see being the main selling point- which party is in charge in DC. Gun sales jump when people think Democrats are going to pass bans, and drop down when Republicans come in. An actual ban hasn't happened in decades, but the fear is still there. And since a red wave is likely this fall it follows that demand for AR's will drop off. And that's on top of recession concerns.

Just an observation.
 
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SageGlad

Aluminum
Joined
Apr 16, 2022
Don’t go to any banks asking financing for the machines, there are a tons of companies who offers financing with the very small down, my first one I paid 10%. So I would down this 10% and keep the rest for a payment’s you have to make, when you realize everything goes not the way you thought. Don’t know anything about what you trying to start with (product) but if it’s a super low margin, you wanna take it as a opportunity to pay the expenses, rent etc. if possible, and never stop seeking the normal machine shop job contract. Good luck!
 

mhajicek

Titanium
Joined
May 11, 2017
Location
Minneapolis, MN, USA
It's been hinted at, but I don't see anyone pointing out what I see being the main selling point- which party is in charge in DC. Gun sales jump when people think Democrats are going to pass bans, and drop down when Republicans come in. An actual ban hasn't happened in decades, but the fear is still there. And since a red wave is likely this fall it follows that demand for AR's will drop off. And that's on top of recession concerns.

Just an observation.
Sure, that would be a decent argument to jump in two years ago. Figure six months to get financing and machines, a few months to get setup and proven out, another month and a half at the anodizer, and you've got stock hitting the market in time for the next election.
 

LOTT

Hot Rolled
Joined
Nov 28, 2016
Sure, that would be a decent argument to jump in two years ago. Figure six months to get financing and machines, a few months to get setup and proven out, another month and a half at the anodizer, and you've got stock hitting the market in time for the next election.
Yep, and makes this the worst moment to jump in.

I have a firearm related product idea I'd like to put out in the world, but even with the machines and whatnot in place I don't think this is the right time.
 








 
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