Hi Amarble6:
I run a one man prototype shop, and have done so since 1998.
Before that I was a dentist, and before that I was a moldmaker.
I've seen a lot of changes to our industry over the years and have the following to offer:
I started when manual mills and rotary tables were the kind of equipment everyone used to make both simple and complex parts.
If you had a pantograph you were one of a kind, out here in my community.
This was all manual equipment, so the industry was skills dependent in a way that it is not anymore.
So you differentiated yourself by your skills, and if you got really good at a subset of those skills, you could demand a premium for having them and earn a really good living.
Then CNC milling came along: for the first years only the deep pocketed could afford it and there was no support structure around, so the industry was still skills dependent, but in a different way with different skills.
Very quickly nobody gave a shit about whether you were good on the rotary table anymore, so that skill set became obsolete.
Then CAD and CAM grew up and suddenly all the hand coders became obsolete.
Then Haas came along and now small shops could get into CNC milling and CNC turning, and all the first gen CNC shops started having competition.
Then 3D printing came along and all the manual plastic prototyping went away.
Then 3D metal printing came along, and now CNC milling and turning are under a new threat.
It all sounds bleak, but I still haul out my turntable once in a while...I just can't depend on it for my bread and butter anymore.
This is increasingly true for all established technology, so if you hope to differentiate yourself by the goodies you buy, good luck with that...it's becoming increasingly irrelevant.
You will be distinguished only by the things you can do that others can't.
I chose miniature and sub miniature machining to get good at, and I struggled in the beginning like anyone without experience.
I ate a lot of freebie hours because I'd underquoted, I fucked up a lot of stuff, and I had to admit defeat more than once, even though I'm a stubborn old fart.
Now after about 45 years in this business in one form or another, I am known around here as the crazy dentist with the machine shop who can do weird shit, especially small weird shit, and that is what's still feeding my family.
I have a broad array of toys and I can take a good stab at most things.
So how viable is it to start a prototype shop now?
It's hard...harder than it was.
Some things are much easier...you can throw money at them in a way you couldn't before and you can get a capability that's truly amazing.
Problem is, anyone with money can do the same, so you can't differentiate yourself that way.
Some things are much harder...you need way deeper pockets to be competitive, and your investments in the gear have a much shorter lifespan as technology marches along.
My 1947 Monarch lathe is just as good a manual lathe as it was in 1947, but my 2011 vintage wire EDM is an obsolete dog compared to what's available now, and we won't even talk about my vintage 1996 sinker EDM.
So in my opinion, to marshal all of the decisions to stay at the forefront of tech and still be profitable, means you'd be better off with an MBA than a tech degree or a trade certification, if you need to stand out in the new game and continually spend the coin to update.
Another story from my experience...I've spent the last couple of years doing development work for an up and coming robotics company.
I've watched them grow like crazy.
Increasingly I cannot service their machining needs anymore as they move down their development path: their stuff increasingly demands tech I don't have, and as their time lines shrink, they are increasingly going to big Chinese firms that can turn a project in weeks instead of months, by throwing twenty guys on it each with a half million dollar Hermle to play with.
So my role with them is changing...I am much more a consultant now, than a soup to nuts prototype shop, even though they still need me to make the stuff others refuse to try.
This change has happened within two years.
My relationship with them is as solid as it can be in the modern era, but if I still had machine payments to make I'd be pissed and scared.
This is exactly the same experience I had with the bowel surgery simulator guys I consulted for before the robot guys.
This is your future too.
So think about what you can offer that is unique and enduring...the ability to make chips is not going to be among them.
Cheers
Marcus
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Vancouver Wire EDM -- Wire EDM Machining