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So is it slowin down? (business/mfrg)

david n

Diamond
Joined
Apr 13, 2007
Location
Pillager, MN
So 'round these parts I have been hearing rumblings of shops gettin' slow..........few local truckers have voiced concern sayin' trips/loads are way way down. They seem a bit on edge. Vendors are back to normal turnaround time or even faster............Material is actually in stock................I'm gitt'n inundated with emails/phone calls from machine dealers sellin' machines that would normally wouldn't need much effort movin'........Lotsa auction emails lately too..........I guess I live in a bubble as my customers are still hummin' right along......................How's everyone doin' out there?
 

Garwood

Diamond
Joined
Oct 10, 2009
Location
Oregon
The last month has been down about 50% for my low value retail products. First time they have slowed since before covid started.
 

boosted

Stainless
Joined
Jan 4, 2014
Location
Portland, OR
No signs of a slowdown over here. Was in a customer's plant last week (semiconductor and aerospace), and noticed the parking lot was exceptionally full. One of the engineers said they have been hiring nonstop for about 6 months.

I have almost given up on expedites because we still can't get material fast enough. Tech is booming (from what I can tell), and somehow aerospace continues to be really busy for those of us who aren't Tier 1 suppliers.

Makes sense that anything connected to cost of living would be suffering right now though. Despite the rush, our pricing hasn't gone up much. I try to pay pretty competitively, but I worry it's not enough. Guys are going to quit making the drive if the cost of fuel keeps going up. It has felt like a slowdown was right around the corner for a good 6 months now, but somehow the pressure has stayed up.
 
Last edited:

Ox

Diamond
Joined
Aug 27, 2002
Location
West Unity, Ohio
Last year we were up 2/3.
It was a LONG year!

This year we are back to "normal".

Not seen any change over the last 6 months.


-------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox
 

AARONT

Stainless
Joined
Feb 19, 2013
Location
Madison, WI
I've been waiting for it to die off but it hasn't. Normally we slow down a little bit this time of year, but there's no slow down in site. Currently contemplating bringing on another guy. All of our vendors are still running longer than normal leads.
 

jamscal

Stainless
Joined
Sep 8, 2004
Location
Louisville, KY
I just lost one of my big jobs due to the economic outlook....ultimate customer was large retailer who decided not to open/remodel xx number of stores after all. The job was supposed to last 3 years but lasted almost a year.

Luckily we're busy otherwise and I don't have to lay the production guys off, but it's unfortunate. We will probably still have the best year ever this year.

My guys were worried a week ago when I put in a large material order and it showed same day.

I've also noticed a big uptick in auctions, and I've been getting more unsolicited calls/emails from local shops looking for work.

On the other hand, a couple places have been advertising every day on TV for welders...so they're staying busy too.

Weird times.
 
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lucky7

Stainless
Joined
Sep 6, 2008
Location
Canada
In the last month the local steel service center has gone from a month lead time for a little guy like me to next day no problem. Even though I don’t need it fast, Cheaper too. And the non ferrous guys return my emails quickly...

fwiw, I’d call opinions based on my experience and the other posts a lagging indicator of how the economy is doing.
 

FamilyTradition

Aluminum
Joined
Feb 24, 2018
Location
Greenfield, Mass
I just lost one of my big jobs due to the economic outlook....
So basically, they think things are going to be bad, so they tighten up the purse strings, which causes others to lose business, which eventually spirals into an economic downturn.

In my opinion, that's a big weakness in how our society goes about business. We change our habits based on what we perceive is going to happen, rather than what's actually happening (or what we know is going to happen - i.e. you're going to sell more snow shovels in December than in July) and in turn, make it happen faster than if we just keep on keeping on - a self fulfilling prophecy.
 

cnctoolcat

Titanium
Joined
Sep 18, 2006
Location
Abingdon, VA
We need an economic slowdown to break the back of inflation! Especially with gas---demand needs to drop significantly for the incessant price increases to start going the other way.

A recession is coming, and it will effect some parts of the economy way more than others. Energy, raw materials, food, and other commodity businesses will continue to do well, while businesses that depend on discretionary consumer spending will be take a beating.

The Cathouse serves primarily the coal mining industry, and what's left of mining in the U.S. is booming right now. Especially metallurgical coal---which constitutes most underground mining today. The U.S. exports about all the met coal our ports can handle.

ToolCat
 








 
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