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So is it slowin down? (business/mfrg)

david n

Diamond
Joined
Apr 13, 2007
Location
Pillager, MN
I'm just flabbergasted that things have been hummin' along as well as they have..................for the last two years I have been expecting a severe downturn is just around the corner. But things(here at least) are business as usual. I'm a bit torn as I like to make hay when the sun is shining, but I need a break. I'm tired. My wife is tired. My kids are tired. When it finally slows though, I will be able to get to some of those projects that have been simmering on the back burners.................there's a lot of them.
 

red beard

Cast Iron
Joined
Apr 1, 2006
Location
Grand Rapids, MI USA
I'm noticing some slow down from some of my customers. I just had an order cancelled for parts that went into office furniture. I haven't seen as many RFQs the last few weeks from the material handling the specialty machinery builders I do work for, but the demand for parts that go to food processing and Ag seems to be steady.
 

reedeprintice

Stainless
Joined
Feb 22, 2008
Location
Paradise , California
We are busy, but I am concerned about the fall out of all the manipulation our government has done having long term affects. The feds raising rates to counter act inflation is the begging of there fix. I don't think we should go in blind.
 

doug925

Titanium
Joined
Nov 21, 2002
Location
Houston
We are up over last year by 25%, but it is starting to slow down. We only have about 2 weeks on the boards currently.

I will be beating the bushes next week asking customers for any p/n's that getting low....
Me: "...you know, there a really long lead times for some materials....."


I REALLY want this year to be 50-75% higher than last year, but the dog days of summer, historically slow down until the end of the 3rd quarter.
 

Ox

Diamond
Joined
Aug 27, 2002
Location
West Unity, Ohio
We are up over last year by 25%, but it is starting to slow down. We only have about 2 weeks on the boards currently.

I will be beating the bushes next week asking customers for any p/n's that getting low....
Me: "...you know, there a really long lead times for some materials....."


I REALLY want this year to be 50-75% higher than last year, but the dog days of summer, historically slow down until the end of the 3rd quarter.

I had heard elsewhere, and have yet to confirm ... but it was said that O&G are hurting right now doo to pipe casing shortages. But that there were oodles of casing materials in Texas ports that were not able to be used doo to "quota's".

Can you, or anyone else in that industry shed any light on this?
I have a feeling that this is another Q-non published line of propoganda, so I am asking.


----------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox
 

boosted

Stainless
Joined
Jan 4, 2014
Location
Portland, OR
I just got an RFQ this week from an O&G company that said their regular vendors are all kinds of backed up due to demand. They were clearly going full-tilt.
 
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DanASM

Hot Rolled
Joined
Mar 11, 2019
Full Tilt Here. Material is still harder to get, longer lead times and higher prices. Much of the same of the last few years.

I get yearly Blanket Orders and they just keep coming in. I am making the customer get the material up front due to availability and pricing fluctuations. Todays price is not Tomorrows, once stuff is paid for thats the cost until it runs out.
 

JP Machining

Stainless
Joined
Jul 15, 2006
Location
Wisconsin
Last year was my best by far, so far this year I'm a month ahead of last already. Main customer just keeps sending orders. Fab side is a bit slower but main customer there is setting up some new dealers etc so I expect that to pick back up soon as well.
 

MCritchley

Hot Rolled
Joined
Mar 22, 2007
Location
Milwaukee
In the last month the local steel service center has gone from a month lead time for a little guy like me to next day no problem. Even though I don’t need it fast, Cheaper too. And the non ferrous guys return my emails quickly...

fwiw, I’d call opinions based on my experience and the other posts a lagging indicator of how the economy is
 

ducesrwld

Aluminum
Joined
Mar 27, 2008
Location
S.E. WI
stupid busy here....just added a small 2nd shift to help keep the throttle down. we are heavy into consumer goods and entertainment/hospitality so it'll be interesting to see what's around the corner. i wouldn't mind a slow down i'm close to going into the loony bin....
 

jatt

Aluminum
Joined
Dec 14, 2009
Location
Australia
Work is still busy here.
Slowly picking up more work from the states capital (Melbourne). Like isnt anyone down there actually working!? 100 miles away and 4.8 odd million folk. Hmmm

Have found some of my regulars are slower to pay than they traditionally are. So can only assume the cost increases of everything are biting.

Admit I have been monitoring stock levels of some items more closely than I have been for a while. Guess I am doing the same as many and watching the situation very closely. Cost of stuff of course has a bearing.

Even if things get worse on the inflation/ interest rate and more folks gets the jitters - will just shorten my work days and spend more time with the fam. Dont think they will mind that.
 

pgmrmike

Cast Iron
Joined
Jun 24, 2010
Location
Plantersville, TX
My customers are primarily oil & gas, not seeing a slowdown yet, and THINK we will be ok for a bit ( but who ever really knows ). Last year was our best ever with this year looking at least as good, but having serious issues finding decent employees. Have run through 3 this year on one machine. We are a bit in the sticks and that makes it tough. Way past the point of plain ol frustration. There just arent many skilled guys looking for work, or guys that will actually work productively. Had 2 guys flat out get out of the trade, one for medical reasons, one said he just cant handle it any more and went to go drive a truck. Payscale in my job ads is higher than any others I can find, but doesn't seem to help.


Really feels like the year of downtime and free money during covid ( we were spectacularly slow but survived) messed everyone up.
 
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Joined
Apr 14, 2018
Location
Airstrip One, Oceania
I had heard elsewhere, and have yet to confirm ... but it was said that O&G are hurting right now doo to pipe casing shortages. But that there were oodles of casing materials in Texas ports that were not able to be used doo to "quota's".

It does sound like a black helicopter theory but I had a friend once who looked into importing shoes. Turned out there were quotas, and Macy's, Nordstrom, etc had them all filled up. Amazing.

So it is possible, I guess.
 
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pgmrmike

Cast Iron
Joined
Jun 24, 2010
Location
Plantersville, TX
It does sound like a black helicopter theory but I had a friend once who looked into importing shoes. Turned out there were quotas, and Macy's, Nordstrom, etc had them all filled up. Amazing.

So it is possible, I guess.
Not sure about casing, Im not in that part of the business, but have heard the same. I have had a lot of issues with mechanical tubing and 4340 rd bar. The supplier I use most frequently has been out of a lot of sizes of tubing repeatedly for the last year, at least. They get some in and I think we are ok, then next month out again, with 2 month lead times. Thank God so far I have been able to get it other places, though it is often in sizes that are less optimal.

Its pretty awesome when you get a quote for matl, then get a PO for the job the next day, send my PO for the material and they sold out yesterday. Has happened several times. Then all thats available is 1/4" on the OD or smaller in ID and costs $30ea more, plus additional time to machine.

Last week I ordered 31pcs of a particular size and when we went to pick it up it was short 4pcs. They said "sorry, we are out of that size with no close replacement that meets spec."
 

MotoX

Cast Iron
Joined
Nov 14, 2011
Location
Enid, Oklahoma
O&G here. We are steady but having a hard time finding steel tubing like pgmrmike said.

I used to use only domestic steel, but my suppliers have sent only china or romanian tubing as of late. Seems to be the only thing available?

We do use a lot of odd sizes, though.
 

Thunderjet

Hot Rolled
Joined
Jun 24, 2019
We're turning away work because we're filled up.
The DOD stuff is crazy hot for us right now. We even tried to farm some stuff out for the first time. No bueno.

Space X/Earthlink, Nasa. and the like are all super hot right now.

We've hired 6 engineers in the last year.

Raw materials is the bugaboo for us.
 








 
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