The US sanctions impacting the Chinese chip industry

[dcsipo]

They supplied many things, but not all, and far from 80%. I think you geatly underestimate China. I am far from thinking that China will fall apart tomorrow, but to say that China's embargo will end in six months is self-deception.

 

[Mark Rand]

The "China miracle" would not have been possible without Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and numerous manufacturers of precision equipment in USA and Europe. Now, as ypu have pointed out that is being exposed for the world to see.

Pot-kettle.

The US is in exactly the same position, just at a couple of hundred years remove. Attempting to cripple the second largest economy in the world for purely mercantile reasons (make no mistake, that's all it is) helps no one and harms everyone. They aren't a military threat to the US, they are the largest individual trading partner for the US (the EU as a whole is very slightly larger) and the sanctions will just force China to reduce its dependence on the US, to the detriment of all.

 

[dcsipo]

Pot-kettle.

The US is in exactly the same position, just at a couple of hundred years remove. Attempting to cripple the second largest economy in the world for purely mercantile reasons (make no mistake, that's all it is) helps no one and harms everyone. They aren't a military threat to the US, they are the largest individual trading partner for the US (the EU as a whole is very slightly larger) and the sanctions will just force China to reduce its dependence on the US, to the detriment of all.

Geopolitics is a dirty game, And the Chinese have been playing it dirty for a long time. I think we all agree that this is an unusual strategy from the US. Will it bring China to the table and negotiate in good faith? That is a huge gamble.

 

[jim rozen]

"In my response, I referenced illegal immigrants, not all immigrants."

And a person's IQ status is somehow inextricably linked to their immigration status? I am also disapointed in your view.

 

[jim rozen]

" the reasons that Zeiss is the only company that makes the first surface mirrors for ASML are multi-fold. It has to do with the glass and its thermal stability, the secret sauce in the coating, the existence of the polishing equipment, the ability to measure and qualify said mirrors, and the list goes on."

Anyone who understand the EUV aligners that ASML makes, will probably admit there are indeed sacrifices to Odin needed to get them to actually work.

 

[standardparts]

Geopolitics is a dirty game, And the Chinese have been playing it dirty for a long time. I think we all agree that this is an unusual strategy from the US. Will it bring China to the table and negotiate in good faith? That is a huge gamble.

"unusual strategy"?.... if you say so.
About the same strategy that was attempted 2018-2020 including agreements with the vendors in the Netherlands. Sanctions became a real campaign issue and here we are almost 4 years later dealing with China and chip technology.
Same old song and dance.
Sign me: Skepital during midterms.

 

[scsmith42]

"In my response, I referenced illegal immigrants, not all immigrants."

And a person's IQ status is somehow inextricably linked to their immigration status? I am also disapointed in your view.

Why would you be disappointed in a view that exists only in your own mind?

Nothing in any of my responses would be construed by most intellectually honest people as having been disparaging of either immigrants or their intellectual capabilities.

If a statistic is based upon a census count of US citizens (population counts), then any percentages of that statistic would only be accurate if they also referenced US citizens. Legal immigrants are included in the census population counts and therefore part of the referenced statistic. Illegal immigrants, since they are not counted, are therefore excluded from the statistic.

How you construed this to be my disparaging of immigrants is a leap beyond my comprehension.

You seem intent on assigning nonexistent motivations to my comments; conclusions that you are publicly making that serve to attack my integrity and are in no way based upon either my beliefs or statements. This raises questions as to both your character as well as integrity - or lack thereof.

 

[dcsipo]

"unusual strategy"?.... if you say so.
About the same strategy that was attempted 2018-2020 including agreements with the vendors in the Netherlands. Sanctions became a real campaign issue and here we are almost 4 years later dealing with China and chip technology.
Same old song and dance.
Sign me: Skepital during midterms.

Yeah, the timing is suspect. But let's assume for a second that this is not a political season. There is a lot more to this than what meets the eye. It is unusual to kneecap China when international tensions are this high. This action is about as brutal as it gets without going to a total oil embargo or naval blockade on China. Is the Biden admin trying to goad China into some action, or do they believe this is the leverage that will yield negotiations? Not clear to me; whether something truly dumb or profoundly brilliant is hiding behind this.

 

[standardparts]

Yeah, the timing is suspect. But let's assume for a second that this is not a political season. There is a lot more to this than what meets the eye. It is unusual to kneecap China when international tensions are this high. This action is about as brutal as it gets without going to a total oil embargo or naval blockade on China. Is the Biden admin trying to goad China into some action, or do they believe this is the leverage that will yield negotiations? Not clear to me; whether something truly dumb or profoundly brilliant is hiding behind this.

"kneecap China"?......How so?
It seems your oblivious to what China means to the U.S. economy. The U.S. and China need each other as trading partners. Naval blockade means no shipping containers of consumer goods to West Coast ports...Oil embargo means no plastic and such to produce the goods to fill those containers.
If anything big is gonna pop it will be in the next couple of weeks.

 

[SeymourDumore]

It seems your oblivious to what China means to the U.S. economy. The U.S. and China need each other as trading partners.

Hmm.... just to throw something out there ...
Up until a few months ago Europe desperately and absolutely NEEDED Russia's oil, but even more importantly natural gas.
Turns out desperation does lead to motivation.
But, of course, that door does swing both ways.

 

[john.k]

i wonder if China includes a feature in every E device sold to export markets that would allow the device to be faulted on command .......imagine the drama if half the phones,computers ,aircon controllers,..or even Ring doorbells stopped working on the same day................Id hazard a guess the country would come to a halt.

 

[dcsipo]

"kneecap China"?......How so?
It seems your oblivious to what China means to the U.S. economy. The U.S. and China need each other as trading partners. Naval blockade means no shipping containers of consumer goods to West Coast ports...Oil embargo means no plastic and such to produce the goods to fill those containers.
If anything big is gonna pop it will be in the next couple of weeks.

According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade, United States Imports from China were US$541.53 Billion in 2021. United States Imports from China - data, historical chart, and statistics - was last updated in October 2022.

Meanwhile:

The US GDP in 2021 was around 23 Trillion

That makes the total contribution of the Chines economy to the US economy 2.35% of GDP. Let's assume that we source everything China ships to us from somewhere else at a 30% premium which makes the total import cost around 3% of the real economy. Or an inflationary pressure of about 0.7%. Numbers are funny things, are they not?

 

[Freedommachine]

"In my response, I referenced illegal immigrants, not all immigrants."

If you highlight text that you want to quote; instead of hitting copy/paste, just use the 'reply' bubble that pops up.

This way people will know when you reply to them.

And a person's IQ status is somehow inextricably linked to their immigration status? I am also disapointed in your view.

Lol. 'inextricably' is quite a dramatic exaggeration there Jimmy. I'd betcha a dollar there is some correlation between I.Q. and method of entry though.

According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade, United States Imports from China were US$541.53 Billion in 2021. United States Imports from China - data, historical chart, and statistics - was last updated in October 2022.

Meanwhile:

The US GDP in 2021 was around 23 Trillion

That makes the total contribution of the Chines economy to the US economy 2.35% of GDP. Let's assume that we source everything China ships to us from somewhere else at a 30% premium which makes the total import cost around 3% of the real economy. Or an inflationary pressure of about 0.7%. Numbers are funny things, are they not?

How would that work?

Explain it to me like I'm 5 please because I'm not following lol.

Harbor freight, Walmart and every dollar store franchise in the US just loads it all up and moves production to Laos, India, Pakistan?

Didn't we have a problem at the beginning of Covid where we learned that the majority of our medication came from China? (I could be wrong, maybe it was other medical equipment)

 

[SeymourDumore]

If you highlight text that you want to quote; instead of hitting copy/paste, just use the 'reply' bubble that pops up.
This way people will know when you reply to them.

Yeah ... that is a lost cause you're fighting there Free....

Harbor freight, Walmart and every dollar store franchise in the US just loads it all up and moves production to Laos, India, Pakistan?
Didn't we have a problem at the beginning of Covid where we learned that the majority of our medication came from China?

Well, as I've posted in #110, desperation can lead to motivation.
Beginning of the 20th, the US was complacent, indifferent, perhaps even ignorant.
Then it got motivated to rise.
Then, when the blood in the water smelled too good, it got even more motivated.
Then, at the end of the century, early next, it returned to be complacent while remaining ignorant.
Well, perhaps it isn't too late yet and desperation may once again lead to a new rise.
( I sure hope so 'cos the alternative will suck! )

 

[dcsipo]

Explain it to me like I'm 5 please because I'm not following lol.

Harbor freight, Walmart and every dollar store franchise in the US just loads it all up and moves production to Laos, India, Pakistan?

Didn't we have a problem at the beginning of Covid where we learned that the majority of our medication came from China? (I could be wrong, maybe it was other medical equipment)

We are not talking about single-source commodities. There are multiple sources for almost every single one of the things we buy from China. After all, nearly 99% of those are copies of some EU or US-made goods. India, Vietnam, name one they will be happy to sell us a copy of something China copied. Or we can pay a fair price and return to the source. You would be surprised to discover that it is not always that expensive. If we had 2 or 3 trillion in trade with China, I would say it is hard. at under 3%. It is just a logistical bump solved in a few years. The advantage of manufacturing everything over there evaporated over the past decade. The Chinese labor cost became about 30 to 40% more expensive than Mexican labor. It makes perfect sense to re-shore assembly and other low-tech manufacturing to central and south America. Yeah, it would be a pain but not impossible.

 

[john.k]

The difference being that in China its unlikely the staff will be murdered by drug cartels........a safe environment is important...........Italian manufacturing industry was completely exterminated by the Red Brigades terrorists in the 70s.

 

[SeymourDumore]

Or we can pay a fair price and return to the source. You would be surprised to discover that it is not always that expensive.
Yeah, it would be a pain but not impossible.

That is the desperation part of what I meant.
More expensive on one hand? Yes!
Less disposable on the other? Yes there too!
That is one thing us older ( not old, just older or I'll have to talk with 'ya ) generation can perhaps still explain to the current one.

 

[john.k]

China gets a cold,Australia gets pneumonia......terminal ...........this country has become supremely lazy to the extent almost anyone can do as they please.......dont want to work.....then dont.......want to be a play acting green climate activist...........then be one...............want be a LBTIQ?? in your face angry woman....then be one.............want to paint yourself up like a Hottentot ,and be anti everything .....just do it............this country is a Fools Paradise ,how long it lasts ,who knows....................probably should say ..Disclaimer....I dont work either ,havent worked for around 14 years .....but Im a rich boomer ,so I have a good excuse.

 

[standardparts]

We are not talking about single-source commodities. There are multiple sources for almost every single one of the things we buy from China. After all, nearly 99% of those are copies of some EU or US-made goods. India, Vietnam, name one they will be happy to sell us a copy of something China copied. Or we can pay a fair price and return to the source. You would be surprised to discover that it is not always that expensive. If we had 2 or 3 trillion in trade with China, I would say it is hard. at under 3%. It is just a logistical bump solved in a few years. The advantage of manufacturing everything over there evaporated over the past decade. The Chinese labor cost became about 30 to 40% more expensive than Mexican labor. It makes perfect sense to re-shore assembly and other low-tech manufacturing to central and south America. Yeah, it would be a pain but not impossible.

Man.....forgive me for this...but you 'dcsipo' sound just like Trump did regarding foreign trade....and we all know how that turned out.
Maybe Joey will be more successful.
Like I said before...give it a few weeks and see if after the midterms we don't have some new topic spun up by media and the White House to talk about.......

 

[standardparts]

Hmm.... just to throw something out there ...
Up until a few months ago Europe desperately and absolutely NEEDED Russia's oil, but even more importantly natural gas.
Turns out desperation does lead to motivation.
But, of course, that door does swing both ways.

So your saying the EU, especially Germany no longer has an energy crisis involving Russia?
Bravo! Can we now reduce the 100,000 troop level? Can Germany count on much less of it's GDP that is now paying for increases in energy?
So yeah, desperation may lead to motivation but you failed to mention a lasting solution with a positive outcome.