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The world is about to re shuffle

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BillE

Hot Rolled
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Location
Sydney Au
john.k said:
top line Chinese bike,maybe $1000

Reminds me of an Aussie Crawl song berating wankers with $100 pushies! You mightn't have bought the usual Chinese made bike for a while, at least with a "reputable" sticker attached, methinks.

Picked up a new bike on Friday 2 weeks after order placed. Supply chain issues from the pandemic seem to be largely resolved here for low and mid range bikes (proximity to manufacturers). Must have been 3/400 mountain bikes alone in boxes overflowing the shop. The high end, 10k and up mountain and road bikes are still backlogged.
 

lucky7

Stainless
Joined
Sep 6, 2008
Location
Canada
Mr. Dickman,

Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival.

Agree, except for the ‘about to’. I’d argue this has been ongoing for 6-12 months already. Think near shoring of chip foundries, battery manufacturing, opening of new mines in North America, higher metal prices because people here (!) are fighting for raw stock to machine…. The list goes on.

Wonder how the predicted recession second half of 2022 will affect North American manufacturing?

Yes, interesting times.

L7
 

triumph406

Titanium
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Location
ca
Something on the order of two MILLION.. who WERE working outside of Ukraine already... were logged back INTO UKRAINE.. to help with the war effort.

That boosted Ukraine's armed forces ... and logistics support. Bigtime. Because - unlike Tsar Stal-put-ler's [1] struggle to even conscript warm bodies as fodder for Ukraine's artillery - Ukraine's returning expats WANTED to 'be there' for Ukraine. Most men had stayed. Women and children scarpered. MANY men....and more than a few women .. came back to fight ... or help. Around 10% to 15% of Ukraine's combat roles are staffed by women, BTW.

But... that also put a hurt on Europe and not-only as factory workers, forklift operators, construction workers, long haul-truckers, taxi-drivers, "etc." went short in the labour markets Ukrainian expats HAD been serving...

And yazz... 'the plan' in the USA seems to be to legalize drugs .... and require abandonment of any form of honest work.

"As ye sow, so shall ye reap..."

:(

[1] "Dead man, walking", if ever was, wannabee-Tsar Stalputler:

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' | World News | Sky News

Well if two Million people returned to help support the war effort, two MILLION went into Poland to avoid it. My sister in Law comes from a polish town 20 kilometers from the Belorussian border, there town is heaving with Ukranians of all shapes, sizes. genders and ages.
 

triumph406

Titanium
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Location
ca
You guys are delusional if you think they can find employable skilled people readily availible.

Just employable people is going to be a challaenge in itself

----------------------------------------------------------------

I was working early 90's at a place were we made automated machinery. We made a big machine that pressed rubber seals into a Canon connector. It was a slow machine. We asked the Canon engineer
"Why are we making this machine, it's not any faster than a human?"
he replied
"we need this machine because we can't get people to turn up on time, turn up drug and alchohol free, and last more than 2 weeks"

This was back around 1991, it's probably worse now.

-----------------------------------------

Last place i worked did Aerospace R&D, when we would hire manual/cnc machinists/programmers/inspectors etc, 9 out of 10 never made it to the end of the first week, most lasted a day. This was in Socal where you'd think there'd be a large pool of experienced people.

----------------------------------------

It's never going to happen, not in my lifetime anyway

-------------------------------------------

Surprised olrlt hasn't chimed in, he always seems to have a take on the situation none of us are privy too.
 

barbter

Diamond
Joined
Oct 27, 2007
Location
On Tour...
Reminds me of an Aussie Crawl song berating wankers with $100 pushies! You mightn't have bought the usual Chinese made bike for a while, at least with a "reputable" sticker attached, methinks.

Picked up a new bike on Friday 2 weeks after order placed. Supply chain issues from the pandemic seem to be largely resolved here for low and mid range bikes (proximity to manufacturers). Must have been 3/400 mountain bikes alone in boxes overflowing the shop. The high end, 10k and up mountain and road bikes are still backlogged.

I am looking between 7 and 10k Euros.
Pivot, Mondraker, Lapierre, but probably will end with something like a Cube Hybrid and swap the forks out for some Ohlins or Fox Factory.
Not too worried about the back end - it always follows the front....
 

thermite

Diamond
Well if two Million people returned to help support the war effort, two MILLION went into Poland to avoid it. My sister in Law comes from a polish town 20 kilometers from the Belorussian border, there town is heaving with Ukranians of all shapes, sizes. genders and ages.

Around SIX million left, all destinations, actually. Not exclusively women, children, elderly, or otherwise not "prime combatant material", no.

A country of 44 million, even with an above the mark 'patriotism', is still a long way from "perfect'.... but still.

Those who came BACK (some just before the latest iteration of the 8-plus-year long war) have. and will, make a positive difference to the point where Mad-Vlad's "boots on the ground" were actually outnumbered in head-count AND in quality of training/competence, command & organizational skills .. and early-on.

Add the classical ground-warfare advantage of 3:1 in favour of defenders on their home, familiar, turf, with shorter lines of logistics, a VERY supportive population, and eight YEARS of practice?

I make it a 6:1 advantage, "as has been demonstrated"

What AFU has done with that edge + 'donated' weapons, logistics support, and FUNDING ...plus a very skillful "mobile defence".... is tilt the balance of casualties to RF personnel, materiel, and morale to the advantage of Ukraine.

Bigtime!

Presuming 'the usual' ratio of wounded to KIA applies?

RF forces were down by day 82 @ around 27,000 dead, PLUS around EIGHTY thousand wounded or otherwise hors de combat.

As said, Mad-Vlad set out to demonstrate the Russian Federation had the second most powerful Military on the planet.

All he has proven, so far, is to have the second most powerful military ... in Ukraine.

Annnnd .... 'historically..' there IS NO "second place winner" ..... in a gunfight, is there?

QED
 

Scottl

Diamond
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
Location
Eastern Massachusetts, USA
Given some of the recent events here, I have to believe there is a concerted effort amongst the majority of forum members to eliminate or minimize the political slant to the forum's threads.

I see no value to this thread other than to stir up shit. If this were a democracy, I would vote to lock it immediately. You know damn well where it's going.

100% agree. Ukraine, presidential elections, gun control, etc. are all political by nature.

It's one thing to do a thread about the effect of supply chain disruptions on PM members and quite another to keep pushing the Ukraine issue. Supply chain issues are a result of many things including Covid, weather issues such as drought etc., crop diseases, domestic energy policy changes, labor supply and many others, including events overseas.

One thing that should be obvious is that we are far too dependent on imports, which makes us vulnerable to such disruptions.
 

Scottl

Diamond
Joined
Nov 3, 2013
Location
Eastern Massachusetts, USA
The GOP is totally opposed to comprehensive immigration reform, due to the loss of the toxic talking point.

But hey, fuck politics.

If we stopped dumbing down our own children in our "education" system and denigrating "manual" work we could have a vital energized domestic work force in only a few years.

A lot of those coming across the border will end up working as landscaping employees, unskilled and semi-skilled construction labor, and even taxi drivers if their language skills are good enough. For the most part we are NOT importing rocket scientists or even skilled mechanics, machinists etc. across that border.
 

thermite

Diamond
There’s going to be a lot of work for US construction companies when this over.Rebuilding what ever is left of Ukraine.

Regards Tyrone.

Ah... you mean a lot of work for UKRAINE'S contractors, doncha?

Even after wartime losses, they'll still have plenty of skilled labour.

Hopefuly with (formerly) Russian money, too!

Money, they had less of. Hence so many Ukrainian "gastarbeiter" / economic expats.

Not quite the same model as the Philippines.

Closer, perhaps to Turkey? Pleny of Turks working in EU factories, but plenty of Turkish manufacturers of components as well.
 
Joined
Apr 19, 2006
Location
Manchester, England
Ah... you mean a lot of work for UKRAINE'S contractors, doncha?

Even after wartime losses, they'll still have plenty of skilled labour.

Hopefuly with (formerly) Russian money, too!

Money, they had less of. Hence so many Ukrainian "gastarbeiter" / economic expats.

Not quite the same model as the Philippines.

Closer, perhaps to Turkey? Pleny of Turks working in EU factories, but plenty of Turkish manufacturers of components as well.

The Ukrainians may or may not be doing the work but you can bet your house that US construction companies will be behind it.

Regards Tyrone.
 

BillE

Hot Rolled
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Location
Sydney Au
I am looking between 7 and 10k Euros.
Pivot, Mondraker, Lapierre, but probably will end with something like a Cube Hybrid and swap the forks out for some Ohlins or Fox Factory.
Not too worried about the back end - it always follows the front....

I expected that first price point to be an issue, surprisingly, there is some stock shown here.....probably end up with, sorry website hasn't been updated mate, we'll hold your money for another 6~9 months!
 

Trueturning

Diamond
Joined
Jul 2, 2019
I am looking between 7 and 10k Euros.
Pivot, Mondraker, Lapierre, but probably will end with something like a Cube Hybrid and swap the forks out for some Ohlins or Fox Factory.
Not too worried about the back end - it always follows the front....
Glad you got the bike in ok. Now this is a bicycle correct? There are a fair amount of electric bicycles around now and they are pretty quick. Filling up on Gas now is really much higher so I think for people they are using their bikes and motorcycles a lot more. All the different categories of price increases is a new twist in daily life.
 
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barbter2

Aluminum
Joined
Nov 25, 2019
Location
On Tour....
Glad you got the bike in ok. Now this is a bicycle correct? There are a fair amount of electric bicycles around now and they are pretty quick. Filling up on Gas now is really much higher so I think for people they are using their bikes and motorcycles a lot more. All the different categories of price increases is a new twist in daily life.
Bike yes - ebike to be specific. I have a couple I built in 2017/18 but they're rear wheel 2kw motors and one is great for the road (Ally frame mid 90's GT) and the other is a beast of a downhill bike (Specialized Big Hit2) and as such heavy and not pedal friendly!
But, new tech has jumped in 5 years where carbon frames are now the norm and mid drive integrated motor - which is lighter and better balanced.
I'm only window shopping at the moment, but prices jumped 500euro from 2021 to 2022, and I reckon they'll jump 1k for 2023.
So I have to pull my finger out....
 

standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
The Ukrainians may or may not be doing the work but you can bet your house that US construction companies will be behind it.

Regards Tyrone.
Looking at the location of Mariupol it's likely Russia will be spending big money with someone to get the port and city operating asap. Wonder if China will be involved in rebuilding especially with the steel mills.
 

dcsipo

Titanium
Joined
Oct 13, 2014
Location
Baldwin, MD/USA
Looking at the location of Mariupol it's likely Russia will be spending big money with someone to get the port and city operating asap. Wonder if China will be involved in rebuilding especially with the steel mills.
Not sure it will be feasible ASAP, maybe in years or never. It is looking like the RF is losing friends in the Russian-speaking community in that part of the world by brute force. The goal was never to gain the land, the goal was to occupy it to get to the Galati gap in Romania As a side benefit they could have gotten some of the oil in Ploesti.
 

standardparts

Diamond
Joined
Mar 26, 2019
Not sure it will be feasible ASAP, maybe in years or never. It is looking like the RF is losing friends in the Russian-speaking community in that part of the world by brute force. The goal was never to gain the land, the goal was to occupy it to get to the Galati gap in Romania As a side benefit they could have gotten some of the oil in Ploesti.
Looking at the maps it would seem Russian control of Mariupol would be a strategic win. The linked article is 6 weeks old so that needs to taken into account.

 

CalG

Diamond
Joined
Dec 30, 2008
Location
Vt USA
Wasn't there a large "surrender" in Mariupol just yesterday?

500 or so, mostly hospital cases. 12 bus loads as far as I can tell.

Any way, the city is is different hands today than it was 3 months ago. No going back I think.
 
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