The world is about to re shuffle

[dcsipo]

The world is about to re shuffle. Supply chains are about to be disrupted

Are you in the right place?

 

[Demon69]

But do you own Roubles tho!?

 

[Larry Dickman]

Given some of the recent events here, I have to believe there is a concerted effort amongst the majority of forum members to eliminate or minimize the political slant to the forum's threads.

I see no value to this thread other than to stir up shit. If this were a democracy, I would vote to lock it immediately. You know damn well where it's going.

 

[Thunderjet]

Given some of the recent events here, I have to believe there is a concerted effort amongst the majority of forum members to eliminate or minimize the political slant to the forum's threads.

This forum is NOT a democracy, it's a DICTATORSHIP.

That said, The effort by most is to effect CIVILITY in the political discussions we try to have here.

I am fully prepared to debate and discuss political subjects with civil limits in place.

There are folks here, on either sides that CAN NOT do this. They immediately resort to defamation and accusations of their opponents of lying.

For whatever reason, the big players in this type of defamation are allowed to remain here and foment their rotten world view of almost every topic.

I look at this site as a perfect place to wind down from a full day of figuring out how to manufacture shit.

I like to help, dissuade, and propose answers for the folks here trying to manufacture stuff. This is a great place for that.

But I also like to be able to vent, rant, yell and debate political topics here.

Please try to NOT take that away from us.

 

[dcsipo]

Given some of the recent events here, I have to believe there is a concerted effort amongst the majority of forum members to eliminate or minimize the political slant to the forum's threads.

I see no value to this thread other than to stir up shit. If this were a democracy, I would vote to lock it immediately. You know damn well where it's going.

Mr. Dickman,

Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival, based on the supply chain disturbances caused by current world events. Regardless of your political tilt, or the government in power in the US, it will happen. It has nothing to do with anyone's TDS or anyone's Let's Go Brandon urges. What he is analyzing is geography, finance and demographics, and military power. If you want to argue about politics, be my guest, that will not change the US industrial, trade, and military interests, and those are independent of the culture wars of de jour.

 

[dcsipo]

But do you own Roubles tho!?

Might be a good time to buy some put options on Roubles.

 

[Larry Dickman]

Mr. Dickman,

Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival, based on the supply chain disturbances caused by current world events. Regardless of your political tilt, or the government in power in the US, it will happen. It has nothing to do with anyone's TDS or anyone's Let's Go Brandon urges. What he is analyzing is geography, finance and demographics, and military power. If you want to argue about politics, be my guest, that will not change the US industrial, trade, and military interests, and those are independent of the culture wars of de jour.

I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm saying this isn't the place for it, especially considering how fast it will run off track and become another big pile of shit. I think we've seen enough of it.

 

[thermite]

Mr. Dickman,

Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival, based on the supply chain disturbances caused by current world events. Regardless of your political tilt, or the government in power in the US, it will happen. It has nothing to do with anyone's TDS or anyone's Let's Go Brandon urges. What he is analyzing is geography, finance and demographics, and military power. If you want to argue about politics, be my guest, that will not change the US industrial, trade, and military interests, and those are independent of the culture wars of de jour.

Not disagreeing with major changes being afoot, but..

Will it be a US 'manufacturing revival', or... will those with the Big Bucks - EU + UK & Oceania - as well as USA & Canada - simply continue to outsource 'offshore', but in different directions?

As-in "other than China" for manufacturing capacity, (as much due to unpredictable 'zero-Covid' lockdown effect on manufacturing AND even shipping as 'politics'..) and "other than Russia" for Platinum Group metals, Nickel, primary aluminium and steel? Again - predicatability/reliability, ELSE NOT.. rather than "politics".

My bet is a change in outsourcing is easily as likely as bringing capacity back "onshore".
If not MORE so.

Because the cost of compliance with stiffer (if not also politically influenced ergo capricious and arbitrary..) regulations... and the burden of 'unsane' liability legals .. has for several scores of years been a bigger factor than the fully-burdened cost of labour alone.

2CW

 

[dcsipo]

Not disagreeing with major changes being afoot, but..

Will it be a US 'manufacturing revival', or... will those with the Big Bucks - EU + UK & Oceania - as well as USA & Canada - simply continue to outsource 'offshore', but in different directions?
2CW

Will see. The US with Mexico below and Canada above is in a much better position than China or Indonesia. The only place in that region in a good position is Australia and New Zealand. The rest are part of the first island chain that China always threatens.

As-in "other than China" for manufacturing capacity, (as much due to unpredictable 'zero-Covid' lockdown effect on manufacturing AND even shipping..) and "other than Russia" for Platinum Group metals, Nickel, primary aluminium and steel?

Good points, but the world needs to figure out how to make the new supply chains work. Siberia is not the only possible source of raw materials. 10 years is a long time, space mining may become a reality.

My bet is a change in outsourcing is easily as likely as bringing capacity back "onshore".

Both are a reality, onshored manufacturing will be much more automated, and labor-intensive stuff will head to Mexica, and probably india.

Because the cost of compliance with stiffer regulations... and the burden of 'unsane' liability legals .. has for several scores of years been a bigger factor than the fully-burdened cost of labour alone.

2CW

That is the main question that the administrations have to tackle. We cannot just keep pushing unsafe and "illegal" stuff offshore. And "illegal" is just a social contract.

We will be forced to solve all the above issues because we are pulling back from the world order, we are changing the rules of conflict and the rest of the world is going to fragment.

 

[thermite]

We will be forced to solve all the above issues because we are pulling back from the world order, we are changing the rules of conflict and the rest of the world is going to fragment.

Seem the reverse, rather. Old alliances are being reinforced. New ones coming online.

Keep an eye on the "BRICS"- India especially - also other-than Japanese or Chinese Asia..and LATAM, for example.
India... just banned wheat exports...

Favouring of Russia as a weapons supplier is falling off a cliff, what with their 'suicide kit' vulnerability exposed in Ukraine PLUS present and future RF inability to manufacture and deliver to third-party clients if-even any still WANTED shoddy weapons systems...

RF oil is priced at steep discounts, attractive to India, etc, but.. how to GET it to India, and for how long that will be possible at all, is a whole 'nuther problem.

Cereal grains, edible oils, etc. - from EITHER of Ukraine or Russia - via sea, out of Black Sea ports - are easily as unpredictable. Africa & Middle East are in a world of hurt as a byproduct.

China is ALREADY routing B&R transit of goods around RF, Belarus (and even Ukraine).. to the South. Despite that, the loss of RF market, and RF-Client markets proceed apace ... simply because RF & sputniks can no longer AFFORD Chinese goods.

China may be 'on the side' of the RF, politically, but they are NOT - so far - willing to subsidize the economic hit, nor risk secondary sanctions vs their OWN economic best interests.

"Interesting times"... could be the Russian Federation that 'fragments' whilst the "rest of the world" comes into closer cooperation - willingly or out of plain-old pragmatic necessity?

 

[triumph406]

Mr. Dickman,

Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival, based on the supply chain disturbances caused by current world events. Regardless of your political tilt, or the government in power in the US, it will happen. It has nothing to do with anyone's TDS or anyone's Let's Go Brandon urges. What he is analyzing is geography, finance and demographics, and military power. If you want to argue about politics, be my guest, that will not change the US industrial, trade, and military interests, and those are independent of the culture wars of de jour.

Has Peter Zeihan (whoever the f' he is) found where the people required to work in these factaories are going to come from? There's a shortage of skilled workers now, and an even smaller number of skilled workers who reliably turn up to work on a daily/weekly/yearly basis.

The ONE thing that all businesses complain about is the inability to find employees. That's what I see. Maybe Peter Zeihan sees something different. It's just not manufacturing, it's coffee shops, dry wallers, restaurants, offices etc etc. It seems to be universal.

And then you have the areas where drugs are endemic.

------------------------------------------------

Probably plenty of skilled Ukrainian engineers/machinists looking for work. Send a few 747's over and bring them here.

 

[dcsipo]

Has Peter Zeihan (whoever the f' he is) found where the people required to work in these factaories are going to come from? There's a shortage of skilled workers now, and an even smaller number of skilled workers who reliably turn up to work on a daily/weekly/yearly basis.

The ONE thing that all businesses complain about is the inability to find employees. That's what I see. Maybe Peter Zeihan sees something different. It's just not manufacturing, it's coffee shops, dry wallers, restaurants, offices etc etc. It seems to be universal.

And then you have the areas where drugs are endemic.

------------------------------------------------

Probably plenty of skilled Ukrainian engineers/machinists looking for work. Send a few 747's over and bring them here.

We have the people, even if they do not have skills. Getting skilled workers in the right places is more nuanced. But if you do not the population, like China and Russia are facing makes it impossible to get people, regardless of skills.

 

[thermite]

Has Peter Zeihan (whoever the f' he is) found where the people required to work in these factaories are going to come from? There's a shortage of skilled workers now, and an even smaller number of skilled workers who reliably turn up to work on a daily/weekly/yearly basis.

The ONE thing that all businesses complain about is the inability to find employees. That's what I see. Maybe Peter Zeihan sees something different. It's just not manufacturing, it's coffee shops, dry wallers, restaurants, offices etc etc. It seems to be universal.

And then you have the areas where drugs are endemic.

------------------------------------------------

Probably plenty of skilled Ukrainian engineers/machinists looking for work. Send a few 747's over and bring them here.

Something on the order of two MILLION.. who WERE working outside of Ukraine already... were logged back INTO UKRAINE.. to help with the war effort.

That boosted Ukraine's armed forces ... and logistics support. Bigtime. Because - unlike Tsar Stal-put-ler's [1] struggle to even conscript warm bodies as fodder for Ukraine's artillery - Ukraine's returning expats WANTED to 'be there' for Ukraine. Most men had stayed. Women and children scarpered. MANY men....and more than a few women .. came back to fight ... or help. Around 10% to 15% of Ukraine's combat roles are staffed by women, BTW.

But... that also put a hurt on Europe and not-only as factory workers, forklift operators, construction workers, long haul-truckers, taxi-drivers, "etc." went short in the labour markets Ukrainian expats HAD been serving...

And yazz... 'the plan' in the USA seems to be to legalize drugs .... and require abandonment of any form of honest work.

"As ye sow, so shall ye reap..."



[1] "Dead man, walking", if ever was, wannabee-Tsar Stalputler:

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' | World News | Sky News

 

[CalG]

Has Peter Zeihan (whoever the f' he is) found where the people required to work in these factaories are going to come from? There's a shortage of skilled workers now, and an even smaller number of skilled workers who reliably turn up to work on a daily/weekly/yearly basis.

The ONE thing that all businesses complain about is the inability to find employees. That's what I see. Maybe Peter Zeihan sees something different. It's just not manufacturing, it's coffee shops, dry wallers, restaurants, offices etc etc. It seems to be universal.

And then you have the areas where drugs are endemic.

------------------------------------------------

Probably plenty of skilled Ukrainian engineers/machinists looking for work. Send a few 747's over and bring them here.

I was told that is the reason for the uncontrolled crossings at our southern border.
The present admin says "we NEED them to fill job openings".

You believe that, don't you?

 

[dcsipo]

I was told that is the reason for the uncontrolled crossings at our southern border.
The present admin says "we NEED them to fill job openings".

You believe that, don't you?

The GOP is totally opposed to comprehensive immigration reform, due to the loss of the toxic talking point.

But hey, fuck politics.

 

[CalG]

I can't speak to the issue of uncontrolled crossings...

I do know for 100% sure we need the labor to harvest fruits and vegetables. There was a recent year (don't remember which year) where the fruit growers in Eastern Washington had to let the apples, and other fruits rot on the trees because of a lack of pickers.

Also we need them to work in construction. In my family construction business we could use 3 or 4 right now. They're the only ones wiling to start at $20/hr. It's near impossible to get the white-boy, Bill Gates wannabees to work.

Capitalism does not survive without some group or population to exploit.

$20 an hour? $40 K a year. Go try live on that..

Yep, we still need those bastards to do the dirty work that won't get done (at a profit to the others)

Don't get me wrong, I like cheap apples. Around here, it is "the islanders" that do the picking "ja monn"

 

[john.k]

neat comparison...top line Chinese bike,maybe $1000,top line Euro made bike $30,000 + .....obviously a rich man would go for the euro bike.

 

[BillE]

top line Chinese bike,maybe $1000

Reminds me of an Aussie Crawl song berating wankers with $100 pushies! You mightn't have bought the usual Chinese made bike for a while, at least with a "reputable" sticker attached, methinks.

Picked up a new bike on Friday 2 weeks after order placed. Supply chain issues from the pandemic seem to be largely resolved here for low and mid range bikes (proximity to manufacturers). Must have been 3/400 mountain bikes alone in boxes overflowing the shop. The high end, 10k and up mountain and road bikes are still backlogged.

 

[lucky7]

Mr. Dickman,

Peter Zeihan claims that we are about to experience a manufacturing revival.

Agree, except for the ‘about to’. I’d argue this has been ongoing for 6-12 months already. Think near shoring of chip foundries, battery manufacturing, opening of new mines in North America, higher metal prices because people here (!) are fighting for raw stock to machine…. The list goes on.

Wonder how the predicted recession second half of 2022 will affect North American manufacturing?

Yes, interesting times.

L7

 

[triumph406]

Something on the order of two MILLION.. who WERE working outside of Ukraine already... were logged back INTO UKRAINE.. to help with the war effort.

That boosted Ukraine's armed forces ... and logistics support. Bigtime. Because - unlike Tsar Stal-put-ler's [1] struggle to even conscript warm bodies as fodder for Ukraine's artillery - Ukraine's returning expats WANTED to 'be there' for Ukraine. Most men had stayed. Women and children scarpered. MANY men....and more than a few women .. came back to fight ... or help. Around 10% to 15% of Ukraine's combat roles are staffed by women, BTW.

But... that also put a hurt on Europe and not-only as factory workers, forklift operators, construction workers, long haul-truckers, taxi-drivers, "etc." went short in the labour markets Ukrainian expats HAD been serving...

And yazz... 'the plan' in the USA seems to be to legalize drugs .... and require abandonment of any form of honest work.

"As ye sow, so shall ye reap..."



[1] "Dead man, walking", if ever was, wannabee-Tsar Stalputler:

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' | World News | Sky News

Well if two Million people returned to help support the war effort, two MILLION went into Poland to avoid it. My sister in Law comes from a polish town 20 kilometers from the Belorussian border, there town is heaving with Ukranians of all shapes, sizes. genders and ages.