What's the general feel in manufacturing? Recession?

[Ries]

The help wanted ads around here are everywhere.
Boeing has over 100 positions advertised just for the Everett plant, and my local big dog, Janicki, has 60 help wanted ads up. The smaller fab and machine shops also are mostly advertising, usually at $25 to $40 an hour. The place that makes wind generator towers, for instance, wants welders and fitters and painters, and mostly starts around 30.

 

[CarbideBob]

All the talk has been about a recession coming for the last two years.
Not seeing it happen.

 

[Garwood]

I know more than a few people in their early 30's that are really, really hoping for a crash so they can afford to buy a house or get out of a tiny starter home they never should have bought and into something appropriate for a family with $150K income.

I'm always hearing the crash is just around the corner and I don't see it. I see a bunch of people crouched in attach position ready to pounce on deals if prices and/or rates drop a little.

We're nowhere near a 2008.

 

[Ox]

All the talk has been about a recession coming for the last two years.
Not seeing it happen.

The Fabricator Magazine had a writ on this subject 2 months (?) ago.
There, they said that 45% of the economists say that it is coming.
The rest simply don't know.

"If this" happens.
"If that" happens....
And then "sumpthing else entirely yet" happens.

bla
bla...

They had essentially the same writ maybe a year and a half ago as well, basically the same results at that time too.


Personally I think that Detroit will hold up anything that goes down. Lot's of cars/trucks not been replaced the last 3 years. I think that demand will keep Detroit's wheels on, even if others lose ground.


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox

 

[Ries]

Between 1865 and when the FDIC was passed in 1933, we had 18 Recessions, Panics, and Depressions. If thats what you want, there is a simple answer- deregulate banking.
Watch housing prices crash every few years. Of course, with real, unregulated recessions and depressions, not to mention the occasional panic, you probably wont see anyone with the money to take advantage of those low prices...

 

[Ox]

I know more than a few people in their early 30's that are really, really hoping for a crash so they can afford to buy a house or get out of a tiny starter home they never should have bought and into something appropriate for a family with $150K income.

I'm always hearing the crash is just around the corner and I don't see it. I see a bunch of people crouched in attach position ready to pounce on deals if prices and/or rates drop a little.

We're nowhere near a 2008.

In Sept '08 we were no-where near an '08 either.
IMTS had the best at-show sales ever! (Sept 10-15 prox)
And we were already halfway to bottom by early Nov election.
And by Feb 1 of '09, a $1M bill could have bought all of Detroit in it's entirety.
The auctions were ridiculous!

If the cards are stacked, and yet the public hasn't seen the effects yet, the bottom can come out REAL QUICK!
Happened in '29.
Happened in '08.
I wouldn't ever expect that something else couldn't put us in a death spiral overnight again.


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox

 

[snowman]

I know more than a few people in their early 30's that are really, really hoping for a crash so they can afford to buy a house or get out of a tiny starter home they never should have bought and into something appropriate for a family with $150K income.

I'm always hearing the crash is just around the corner and I don't see it. I see a bunch of people crouched in attach position ready to pounce on deals if prices and/or rates drop a little.

We're nowhere near a 2008.

Oh, I have zero expectation there will be a crash in real estate. I am a conspiracy theorist in this regard. I think that real estate is going to keep going until the average person can't afford the taxes. You don't even need to buy all the land, just enough to drive the assessed values up.

I expect that the crash is already occurring...if you are of average wage earning capacity and have tried to buy a house, you've already experienced it. People that could afford the freedom of land ownership ten years ago, now can't.

 

[gbent]

Economists have successfully predicted 7 of the last 3 recessions.

 

[CarbideBob]

Held some stuff in Microsoft, Apple or Nvidia for the past year?
Oh, woe is me. must be bad times.

 

[BoxcarPete]

Oh, I have zero expectation there will be a crash in real estate. I am a conspiracy theorist in this regard. I think that real estate is going to keep going until the average person can't afford the taxes. You don't even need to buy all the land, just enough to drive the assessed values up.

I expect that the crash is already occurring...if you are of average wage earning capacity and have tried to buy a house, you've already experienced it. People that could afford the freedom of land ownership ten years ago, now can't.

I was thinking maybe a crash was coming on account of interest rates climbing, but it seems to have survived that. A buddy of mine pointed out that all the freshly printed $$$ need to find a home, and lots of them ended up in real estate, propping up values.

 

[Stirling]

Work has doubled for me this year.
But I’m small so a few good orders can do that :p

As for recession I was calling for it the whole year before covid. Even drained my RRSP 2 weeks before covid. (Blind luck I guess and a good time on the books to draw the accounts down. Aka I was making jack shit)
Wish I would been smart enough to put it back in for the rise. Lol.

As for today. I really worry about a housing crash here in Canada. Rates are way up and wages are not nearly following.
Ya house prices are down but what about those who bought? I’m locked for another 3.5 years with cash to pay it out if it makes sense. But most are not in that position.

As for equipment prices crashing. I got dry powder waiting…

Who knows tho.
Borrow like a billionaire and make money with it of you can. Or horde some cash and play safe if that’s what you know. I’m a play safe guy for better or worse

 

[Kingbob]

We are on track to to out do last year by at least 30%. Sad thing is, is that all that profit has been eaten up repairing Hurricane Ida damage.

 

[Ox]

Late last fall I thought that maybe the big crash was showing up after all. I was finishing up a long job, and had almost nothing on the other side of it. Not seen hardly anything in RFQ's for a month maybe, and this was mid December, so you know nothing much is gunna change 'till at least the 2nd week of January at least...

Gunna have time to get some much needed major maintenance done, and maybe even git some sledding in...

By Jan 1 I was already getting swamped, and for all of January I didn't even bother to write the new orders comming in down anymore, I just tossed them on the pile and laughed at the situation.

Got a LOT of work shoved out the door the first few months, but the last month or two has been lacking in "drive".
(burn-out)

Yesterday I got the last of my "way behind" jobs going. All other work is now current, and not a whole lot of back-log.
But there is a large job looming, but all's been quiet on that front so far.
???

So maybe NOW I can get that maintenance done, get a newsed machine that I bought a year ago finally commissioned. Get the shop cleaned up - not been cleaned up since beginning of Woohan Flue. It's been a long 3 years, and I am OK to not be pushing hard for a bit...

Been waiting for the big crash to come so that I can get a screaming deal on a newsed twin turret lathe, but maybe that's not gunna time out as I hoped?


I have a chum that services the RV industry, and while they have spent the last 3 years working 6-7 day weeks, he is now asking folks to take vacation for tomorrow. Was expecting this downslide ... a year and a half ago!


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Think Snow Eh!
Ox

 

[RCS Machine]

Real slow here right now. Started the first part of the year breaking records then June came around and the door shut. We are heavily into mold building and other mold shops I talk with are also slow. Not dead, but not nearly at their "comfortable" capacity either. As for my non-mold customers, many are in their design stages with just piece work coming in until they are ready for a full assembly. Been taking Xometry jobs to cover monthly expenses but working for free SUCKS. Right now I could easily take on a lot of work.

 

[Kingbob]

Late last fall I thought that maybe the big crash was showing up after all. I was finishing up a long job, and had almost nothing on the other side of it. Not seen hardly anything in RFQ's for a month maybe, and this was mid December, so you know nothing much is gunna change 'till at least the 2nd week of January at least...

Gunna have time to get some much needed major maintenance done, and maybe even git some sledding in...

By Jan 1 I was already getting swamped, and for all of January I didn't even bother to write the new orders comming in down anymore, I just tossed them on the pile and laughed at the situation.

Got a LOT of work shoved out the door the first few months, but the last month or two has been lacking in "drive".
(burn-out)

Yesterday I got the last of my "way behind" jobs going. All other work is now current, and not a whole lot of back-log.
But there is a large job looming, but all's been quiet on that front so far.
???

So maybe NOW I can get that maintenance done, get a newsed machine that I bought a year ago finally commissioned. Get the shop cleaned up - not been cleaned up since beginning of Woohan Flue. It's been a long 3 years, and I am OK to not be pushing hard for a bit...

Been waiting for the big crash to come so that I can get a screaming deal on a newsed twin turret lathe, but maybe that's not gunna time out as I hoped?


I have a chum that services the RV industry, and while they have spent the last 3 years working 6-7 day weeks, he is now asking folks to take vacation for tomorrow. Was expecting this downslide ... a year and a half ago!


-----------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

Sounds like a lot of us are waiting on that crash to pick up some discount machines, me included

 

[cnctoolcat]

We primarily service the coal industry here at the Cathouse, and even though the US doesn't want much of it, the rest of the world seems to love our high-grade metallurgical coal (which is primarily all that is being mined underground in the Appalachian regions). So we've been steady busy, and expect to be even if the overall economy goes into the tank for a while....which it might.

Covid stimulus and money-printing has created a prop for whatever natural bumps the economy would be seeing.

As inflation continues to squeeze the lower and middle classes, their spending will focus on needs versus wants. And thus hobby industries could slow, even the all-mighty auto industry could slow, as families put off buying that new, expensive vehicle.

All the monopoly money poured on by the government and the Fed has created an "artificially large" economy. It's not often we have seen millions-more job openings than workers to fill them.

Companies of all sizes depend on being able to fill jobs not just for growth, but to simply operate. Where are all the workers at?

ToolCat

 

[Kingbob]

. And thus hobby industries could slow, even the all-mighty auto industry could slow, as families put off buying that new, expensive vehicle.


ToolCat

This is what I've been saying to all my people. We serve the refining and chemical industries. When the econ slows and the toy makers (guns, knives, boats, cars, ect....) start closing up us infrastructure / heavy industry / Ag guys should be able to clean up nicely. Here is hoping at least. Every recession has it's winners.

 

[CatMan]

We sell 99% of our products to government entities. We're setup to have a booming year.

However, most of the setup is because our supply chain can't keep up with our orders. A lot of backlog we have now is still left over from Q4 2022.

It seems like our orders are slowing. Jerome seems to be letting on that interest rates could increase 2 - 3 more times this year.

Seems as if the auto industry is already slowing. Still going good, but now dealers are selling cars & trucks for under list, manufacturers are lowering MSRP prices, etc.

I do agree that this could be a trickle up recession. COVID money finally runs out, then you have deal with inflated costs on normal money.

 

[snowman]

Companies of all sizes depend on being able to fill jobs not just for growth, but to simply operate. Where are all the workers at?

ToolCat

Those places that can't attract workers at this point are either paying shit wages, have serious morale issues in their workplace, don't even have ads out, or never respond to the ads.

"Nobody wants to work anymore" is a crock of shit. My nephews are honor roll students, applied all over the damn place. One of the three got one call back. Entry level part time jobs.

 

[Ries]

Its funny how people think of the 2008 recession.
I lost 2 years worth of work, and had to lay everybody off and do some side jobs. But our entire workload was for large government construction jobs, and those were based on property taxes.
But real estate wise, around here, anyway, the people who ate it were people who had paid ridiculously high prices for mcmansions or gentleman farms, with variable interest rate loans.
Ag land went down almost not at all, and nobody was selling anyway.
Small houses in small towns were down 10% in my rural area, while the 5 bedroom houses on the hill dropped from $850,000 to $600,000.
Still completely out of the range of anybody who just works for a living, and doesnt inherit or invest for a living.
For sure, people got laid off, and then couldnt make their 2 grand a month house payments.
I was lucky enough to have bought my place in 1995, at a low interest rate, so the "valuation" of my real estate affected me almost not at all.
It was the lack of work I suffered from.