Will AI kill higher paying CNC machinist jobs?

[Superbowl]

I know, it's funny but you just hit on exactly why this version of "artificial intelligence" is just a giant shuck. This is the exact definition of garbage in, garbage out. It's just like those CDO's that brought down the economy in 2006 - take one good mortgage, stick it in a box with 30,000 pieces of shit and call it "intelligence".

Sorry, nope.

You still don't get it. The idea of intelligence is the ability to take in nonsense along with valid facts and be able to disregard the nonsense. Just as a human can watch a Three Stooges bit and a serious scientific show the same day and know what is fact, an intelligent machine can eventually do likewise.

 

[EmGo]

You still don't get it.

No, you don't get it. What they are peddling is not intelligence. It's a giant pile of crap, what they call a "neural network" but not anywhere near intelligence. It is truly garbage in, garbage out. This is going to go exactly nowhere.

Here. Let me quote a friend who actually worked in that field for decades, at a famous place Back East (ugh) because he said it much better than I ever will:

"In the good old days, "AI" meant writing programs that performed a task by reasoning about properties of objects. Examples include David Cope's EMI and Harold Cohen's AARON. One of the virtues of these programs is that their logic takes the form of rules: IF wife-of(Desdemona,Othello) THEN husband-of(Othello,Desdemona). If the output is suspect, the chain of reasoning that produced it can be inspected and the rules amended. If rules entail a contradiction, it can be detected. With the correct set of rules for the problem domain, this type of application can do useful work.

Today, "AI" just means "train a neural network with 100 trillion parameters". Note that this neural network is just an encrustation of whatever corpus was used to train it (roughly speaking, the whole Internet, including your posts whether you consent to that use, or not) and does not have any propositional content. In other words, it has no "beliefs" and doesn't make inferences from facts or have any concept of truth. It's a shining example of garbage in, garbage out.

The same is true for models trained on images. There won't be any actual art produced by these "AI", because that would require an original idea and neural networks don't have ideas. I suppose they will be capable of generating the sort of formulaic "art" that issues forth from the decadent art schools and museums, and put "socially conscious artists"/parasites out of business; that would be a tremendous boon. Likewise, if ChatGPT makes it possible to send 99% of so-called developers to the glue factory, the world will be a better place. The code it produces will be terrible and completely bug-ridden, but no worse than the clowns who use Google/StackExchange as a reference manual and Intellisense.

One of the most bizarre phenomena in recent times is the Cult of the Singularity. Its prophets wax asinine about "AGI" ("artificial general intelligence") but without ever defining what they mean by "general". These witless worshippers believe that by merely shoveling all of Reddit and Quora into it, their brazen idol will become "self-aware".

(stolen from robespierre)

Chatgpt and the like are junk. Junk junk junk. It's the same as basing your decisions on gossip you heard over the fence while hanging clothes on the line. It's beneath stupid.

 

[Joe Gwinn]

No, you don't get it. What they are peddling is not intelligence. It's a giant pile of crap, what they call a "neural network" but not anywhere near intelligence. It is truly garbage in, garbage out. This is going to go exactly nowhere.

Here. Let me quote a friend who actually worked in that field for decades, at a famous place Back East (ugh) because he said it much better than I ever will:

"In the good old days, "AI" meant writing programs that performed a task by reasoning about properties of objects. Examples include David Cope's EMI and Harold Cohen's AARON. One of the virtues of these programs is that their logic takes the form of rules: IF wife-of(Desdemona,Othello) THEN husband-of(Othello,Desdemona). If the output is suspect, the chain of reasoning that produced it can be inspected and the rules amended. If rules entail a contradiction, it can be detected. With the correct set of rules for the problem domain, this type of application can do useful work.

Today, "AI" just means "train a neural network with 100 trillion parameters". Note that this neural network is just an encrustation of whatever corpus was used to train it (roughly speaking, the whole Internet, including your posts whether you consent to that use, or not) and does not have any propositional content. In other words, it has no "beliefs" and doesn't make inferences from facts or have any concept of truth. It's a shining example of garbage in, garbage out.

The same is true for models trained on images. There won't be any actual art produced by these "AI", because that would require an original idea and neural networks don't have ideas. I suppose they will be capable of generating the sort of formulaic "art" that issues forth from the decadent art schools and museums, and put "socially conscious artists"/parasites out of business; that would be a tremendous boon. Likewise, if ChatGPT makes it possible to send 99% of so-called developers to the glue factory, the world will be a better place. The code it produces will be terrible and completely bug-ridden, but no worse than the clowns who use Google/StackExchange as a reference manual and Intellisense.

One of the most bizarre phenomena in recent times is the Cult of the Singularity. Its prophets wax asinine about "AGI" ("artificial general intelligence") but without ever defining what they mean by "general". These witless worshippers believe that by merely shoveling all of Reddit and Quora into it, their brazen idol will become "self-aware".

(stolen from robespierre)

Chatgpt and the like are junk. Junk junk junk. It's the same as basing your decisions on gossip you heard over the fence while hanging clothes on the line. It's beneath stupid.

While much of what you say is or at least has been true, there is far more to it than that. For instance, AlphaFold and DeepMind:

https://alphafold.ebi.ac.uk/

https://www.deepmind.com/

These are doing things that were simply impossible (even for humans) until now. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.


Even deeper, on the leading edge of research, is for instance Numenta, which is disentangling how the Neocortex works. This is very much heavy going for those not familiar with Neurocomputing, and such things as grid and place cells.

https://www.numenta.com/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_cell

 

[Superbowl]

Original thought is considered by many to be very rare. Every thought you or anyone else makes is at least 99% colored by past experience. Even the current dumb computers now crush chess masters and Jeopardy champions. AI computers will even be better. Original thought is not necessary in the vast majority of tasks so just the overwhelming knowledge base of the AI computers will exceed what even the above average human can do.

All your examples and arguments cite the past. Progress has always moved forward. Nothing is static. Things that were impossible in the past are common today. We put an F'--ing man on the moon. We built machines and software that can take a drawing and machine a complex shape no human could manually make. I see no reason why a data base of virtually all human knowledge and experience won't be able to do incredible things.

 

[Farmer Phil]

I see no reason why a data base of virtually all human knowledge and experience won't be able to do incredible things.

Is there no reason why a database of virtually all human knowledge and experience won't be able to do terrible things?

 

[DDoug]

Original thought is considered by many to be very rare. Every thought you or anyone else makes is at least 99% colored by past experience. Even the current dumb computers now crush chess masters and Jeopardy champions. AI computers will even be better. Original thought is not necessary in the vast majority of tasks so just the overwhelming knowledge base of the AI computers will exceed what even the above average human can do.

All your examples and arguments cite the past. Progress has always moved forward. Nothing is static. Things that were impossible in the past are common today. We put an F'--ing man on the moon. We built machines and software that can take a drawing and machine a complex shape no human could manually make. I see no reason why a data base of virtually all human knowledge and experience won't be able to do incredible things.

Like the America Citizen that went against qty (2) president's warnings to stop, and congress as well, and engineered a nasty, self replicating, self changing virus, and then spread it throughout the world ?

All the while using taxpayers money to doo so.

And is not in jail.

 

[CarbideBob]

Today, "AI" just means "train a neural network with 100 trillion parameters". Note that this neural network is just an encrustation of whatever corpus was used to train it (roughly speaking, the whole Internet, including your posts whether you consent to that use, or not) and does not have any propositional content. In other words, it has no "beliefs" and doesn't make inferences from facts or have any

Will this system be right or left leaning?
If the training set towards to one it it be.
The net runs one way and another. How to make a balanced training for your neural net AI thing?
Sort of like raising a child.
Many parents try to think they are neutral in this but in reality they are not.
I have dads point of views no matter how much they conflict with my own internal thinking.
Can the current level of AI ponder this question? No as it can not think. It is rote copy and without any smarts.
At this point in history there is no AI. Just things that seem like magic to people. "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain".

 

[john.k]

People are always dismissing AI as just an assembly of 'stuff' from other peoples work' ..........my contention is that most peoples knowledge is "just an assembly of stuff from other people'"......The big difference is that AI doesnt forget or mis recall bits of 'stuff'..........As to Thermies clever (and not so clever ,just nasty) troll pieces ,a lot of them have gems of advanced knowledge that an AI database could harvest ........EDIT......has already harvested.

 

[mhajicek]

The big difference is that AI doesnt forget or mis recall bits of 'stuff'

Many of the current ones, like ChatGPT, certainly do. They will confidently "hallucinate", or claim things that have zero basis in reality, even denying things they've just said.

But going back to the original question, automation (whether you call it AI or not, and including hardware automation), will "come for" the low paying manufacturing jobs first. It's hard to find enough part swappers who will show up sober on time every day and with enough devotion to doing the job right, so shop owners will invest in pallet systems, robot cells, in process probing, etc., and have one or a small handful of highly paid, highly trained and well experienced people to oversee the whole operation. So the hard part for those just starting out, will be getting the necessary experience to get into that latter category, or getting the necessary money, experience, and connections to start up your own shop.

By the time automation is taking out the high paying CNC programmers jobs, the whole world will be massively changed. It may come to be that you have to be a shop owner in order to make it, as very few if any workers will be needed. Long before that point, most desk jobs, and probably most other jobs as well, will have been automated.

 

[john.k]

I still say most peoples knowledge is just an assembly of stuff .....school is all about cramming in enough stuff for you to get by .........my first job (I was on a paid cadetship) was as a 'checker '....(.thats the guy who signs in the 'checked' square on old blueprints).....or sometimes drew bits of galvanized angle with a couple of holes in them..........Ten years as a checker,ten years designing bits of 3x3 angle,ten years designing anchor bolts......that was a career with the SEA ,in them days. ....I would sit there looking out the window at the line trucks going out the gate every day ,and wondering what they would be doing ......some fantastic adventure with a fried possum.,or even a car smashed into a pole.....I digress.........Not difficult to replace that lot with AI.

 

[technocrat]

<snippo>

But going back to the original question, automation (whether you call it AI or not, and including hardware automation), will "come for" the low paying manufacturing jobs first. It's hard to find enough part swappers who will show up sober on time every day and with enough devotion to doing the job right, so shop owners will invest in pallet systems, robot cells, in process probing, etc., and have one or a small handful of highly paid, highly trained and well experienced people to oversee the whole operation. So the hard part for those just starting out, will be getting the necessary experience to get into that latter category, or getting the necessary money, experience, and connections to start up your own shop.

<snippo>

This is absolutely the Australian experience in mining. Driving a mine truck underground is a A$120K to A$150K yearly salary. Several of the larger mines now use automated trucks, no longer requiring drivers. When the economics stack up, things change.

 

[EmGo]

This is absolutely the Australian experience in mining. Driving a mine truck underground is a A$120K to A$150K yearly salary. Several of the larger mines now use automated trucks, no longer requiring drivers. When the economics stack up, things change.

That's automation but it's not intelligence. It's not like they have to decide the best route home, for instance.

And even that can be considered simple statistical choice. Intelligence would be if the trucks decided that due to global warming, they weren't going to deliver coal and ran off into the ocean or something. Or if you don't believe in global warming, some other scenario - maybe they decide that they don't like the brand of lube oil they are getting, bad for the main bearings, and refuse to go underground until they get synthetic, better for engine cold starts.

Intelligence is something beyond just using statistics to click a box in a predetermined multiple choice question. This neural network crap is nothing but a bunch of fools voting on predetermined outcomes. It's like having the kindergarteners in your local school choose which end mill to use on a job. If you have lucky kindergarteners yay but if not, snap goes the tool steel.

Geniune Stupidity(tm) fits the description better.

 

[john.k]

The trucks arent exactly automated .......but driven from India ,by Indians .........incidentally the port container lifters and forklifts have been automated for at least 20 years ........only each (non) driver sits in an office ,paid $250k /yr ......strong waterside unions fought a war against against unmanned vehicles ......and won ......forcing the sacking of several CEOs.

 

[Superbowl]

That's automation but it's not intelligence. It's not like they have to decide the best route home, for instance.

And even that can be considered simple statistical choice. Intelligence would be if the trucks decided that due to global warming, they weren't going to deliver coal and ran off into the ocean or something. Or if you don't believe in global warming, some other scenario - maybe they decide that they don't like the brand of lube oil they are getting, bad for the main bearings, and refuse to go underground until they get synthetic, better for engine cold starts.

Intelligence is something beyond just using statistics to click a box in a predetermined multiple choice question. This neural network crap is nothing but a bunch of fools voting on predetermined outcomes. It's like having the kindergarteners in your local school choose which end mill to use on a job. If you have lucky kindergarteners yay but if not, snap goes the tool steel.

Geniune Stupidity(tm) fits the description better.

My non-AI GPS does in fact decide the best way home for me all the time. It takes into account traffic, road construction, tools, distance, etc. and picks the best and fastest route. It looks at all those factors and makes decisions on its own.

 

[CarbideBob]

My non-AI GPS does in fact decide the best way home for me all the time. It takes into account traffic, road construction, tools, distance, etc. and picks the best and fastest route. It looks at all those factors and makes decisions on its own.

Maybe that is AI??

 

[EmGo]

Maybe that is AI??

But most likely not. It may be moneyball but it ain't running the front office.

 

[Superbowl]

But most likely not. It may be moneyball but it ain't running the front office.

All I can say is I go where ever that bitch tells me to go.

 

[Digital Factory]

Sorry, I meant C3PO the human shaped robot in Star Wars. A robot with that shape and dexterity is impossible now but if they ever come to pass, they could replace human electricians, masons, etc.

In the near term, I see a lot of these fields not being replaced, but disrupted by augmented reality, powered by AI.

For example, if you don't know how to repair something, you'll soon be able to point at something with your phone camera, and the connected AI will analyze the image/video and suggest ways to fix it.

While the average homeowner probably isn't going to slap on a pair of AR glasses to repair his/her toilet, various AR tools, some as simple as an iPhone app, will lower the barrier of entry into a lot of skilled trades, thereby increasing the labor supply.

 

[john.k]

I can see coming here new laws limiting labor savings with AI ,or conversely a tax on each AI application to the same replacement value ..........Now in the dog eat dog USA future dream of the likes of the Waltons ,who knows what will happen ..........maybe a repeat of France in 1780 with the coaches of the rich running down the hungry poor as they crowd around begging for a crust from the billionaires.

 

[mhajicek]

For example, if you don't know how to repair something, you'll soon be able to point at something with your phone camera, and the connected AI will analyze the image/video and suggest ways to fix it.

Nah, it will automatically order a new one on your Amazon account. But you're up a creek if your phone is your only digital identity, and you lose or break it.