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  1. #61
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    After some legal toing a froing they've postponed the Olympics for a year, even at 6 months away I can't see IMTS going on this year - and will be cancelled when the lawyers get their act together.

    On a separate note, once the virus ''has gone away'' (and from what I can make out 6 months is highly unlikely) it's my opinion folk are going to be very slow to start traveling and being in large crowds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Sounds like you got it.

    Reading the descriptions, tell people who can check on you.

    One would think you are about past it, but again, the descriptions talk of fairly rapid lung function decay

    If you see that, get thee to a hospital

    If you don't good on you , enjoy the peace and quiet
    @gustafson thanks !

    I think you pretty much have a good handle on that.

    On my B-day a couple days ago I was very much at "Peace' as there was a slightly cool breeze, warm sun and not a cloud in the sky , hanging with my horse over the fence... Was pretty chill day. (even on solitary "lockdown').

    It's not like worrying is gonna make a virus "change course" . There is difference between not worrying versus inaction.

    But like you say I'm being vigilant as to things tipping sideways very quickly especially respitory(sp) wise (as you say "lung function". I've had the "runs" for about 5 days but better now (fingers crossed ).

    Waiting to turn the corner on this is a little frustrating... Seems to hang in there in a very "mediochre way" the "Silly but dangerous virus" lol, so I'm trying not to get caught out by the virus maybe pretending to "phone it in" and the it goes "Haaa gotcha ! Now try and breath sucker … ! " at 4am … . I don't feel super sick , just a bit drained (energy wise and sleep more than usual). So I feel better in the middle of the day and mornings and evenings lung wise. I'm kinda the opposite of a hypochondriac , but it's not allergies (as I don't "get" allergies nor the usual NM endless high desert fine dust being coughed up in the morning ~ I don't smoke) .

    So as you say I'll map out which facilities it might make sense to go to if things suddenly take a turn for the worst.

    Current barn manager I'll get him to wrap me up in cling film/ horse blanket carpet or something and throw me in the back of his horse trailer drag my ass to the hospital.

    __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ___


    *** Trying to get my head around IMTS 2020, personally I think that would be very reckless unless some kind of miracle happens.

    When you have to figure out who has been in contact with whom and when , and I'm normally more isolated than most, IMTS 2020 seems like sheer madness/ still in the "denial" phase of things... We're only human.

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  5. #63
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    hang in there Cameraman

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    hang in there Cameraman
    Thanks man , I'm not too worried, you too Sami; say Hi to Fens for me :-)

    Hopefully Norfolk should be very good at self isolating lol ;-)

    You can see someone coming from 5 miles away on foot as everything is so flat.

    __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ____


    * For those not in the military that have gone through RAF Mildenhall/ Lakenheath from the USA the "Fens" in Norfolk are traditionally the "Bad lands" of the UK where criminals have been hiding out since Roman times. The marshy lands then drained by the Dutch in the 1600's and then later where what became "Australians" were transported out from (penal colony and prison ships) … So I think Native Norfolkian and Fenfolk would be very well adapted to a Covid 19 crisis. Hiding out secretly at distance seems to be in their "Blood" (for hundreds of years).

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    Let's all take a deep, hopefully cough free breath, and observe the following (which does not bode well for IMTS)

    1. Various models, made by very smart people, using very little information, give warning of a great hazard. Like all such circumstances, these warnings may or may not be correct - more facts will change them. However, charts of wordlwide new diagnosed cases are showing outright exponential growth. (Number of new cases per day is growing....) Bad omen.

    2. Models all have to make assumptions, and one assumption is the "do nothing" assumption. Except that even without government actions, that's not what all of any population does, and while reactions are slow, nobody is doing nothing. Some things that people sensibly claim governments ought to be adding - such as heavy testing and contact tracing - are not currently physically possible due to resource limits. Hence the shelter at home orders.

    3. Hospitals being overwhelmed is very bad, but it's somewhat independent of the spread or mortality of the disease - there are only so many icu beds per million people (for good reasons), AND at least some parts of the US, and I imagine elsewhere, were having a bad flu season when this started. So while that's a very tragic thing to have happen, it doesn't necessarily tell us much about prevalence.

    4. Events which require large and long planning - the olympics being a poster child for this - will continue to cancel well into the year. Unlike the olympics, IMTS already has a venue set (as does air venture), but like the olympics, the time required to build up to have a good show is long. So for *logistical* reasons, IMTS may well be effectively canceled already. (That is, since nobody *knows* if the world will be normal in September, and it's clearly NOT normal in April, and they have to decide if they're going or not, and commit resources, in April or before - well, don't expect much at IMTS this year.)

    5. Some ultra key facts are simply not known - the actual population infection rate and the fraction of the population already immune, being two key ones. I observe that the reported covid-positive rate reported in my local paper is only around 10% - which is odd because they are only testing people for whom there is some kind of worry. Genetic studies (see #1) seem to me to imply that this should be much higher number.

    IF it turns out that the infection rate really is some 10x to 20x higher than the positive test rate, then Seattle metro will have herd immunity forced on it in relatively short order, shelter-at-home or not. (Shelter-at-home has finite effectiveness - think of the poor extended famalies with 10 people in one smallish apartment, or the faddish buildings in Seattle with many small apartments and shared living, cooking, etc spaces. These will be like cruise ships....)

    IF it turns out that the existing infection rate is nowhere near as bad as feared, it suggests the disease isn't as effectively contagious as feared - at least in the social circumstances of Seattle. Part of that may be actions so far.

    AND NOT anywhere close to everybody on the cruise ships died, or even got infected, in spite of them being basically ideal devices to spread the disease. What does that mean?????

    (Likewise, there's a very real possibility that what cameraman is suffering from, and will hopefully very soon recover from, is not covid - it's not like all the other evil viruses in the world went away.)

    There is no KNOWN herd immunity, but for all we know 1/2 the population of Earth is actually effectively immune. Here's a weird thing - some 10% or so of Europeans are resistent to HIV (which was thought 100% irresistable a few years ago.) The conjecture (link below) is that this is a side effect of ancestors surffering through either smallpox or bubonic plague. Not an expected thing.
    303 See Other

    But there a lot of bodies. That is not in dispute.

    The daily news cycle does poorly when new hard facts are appearing so slowly. The world will seem wildly different in 3 weeks - for good or ill.

    Don't expect much if anything for IMTS 2020.

    Will there be an IMTS2022 - we'll see....

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    Quote Originally Posted by cameraman View Post

    * For those not in the military that have gone through RAF Mildenhall/ Lakenheath from the USA the "Fens" in Norfolk are traditionally the "Bad lands" of the UK where criminals have been hiding out since Roman times. The marshy lands then drained by the Dutch in the 1600's and then later where what became "Australians" were transported out from (penal colony and prison ships) … So I think Native Norfolkian and Fenfolk would be very well adapted to a Covid 19 crisis. Hiding out secretly at distance seems to be in their "Blood" (for hundreds of years).
    Although I'm from the UK, I've only ever been to Norfolk once, seemed nice enough. I have a friend who's parents retired to Norfolk years ago, they say it's the land time forgot.

    I come from Southampton that has the New Forest to the West, not nearly as big as Norfolk, but has a few isolated areas where the pub goes silent when you walk in. Covid-19 is probably avoiding those people. There's some New Forest accents that are like nothing else in the South. Great place to visit, wouldn't want to live there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by triumph406 View Post
    Although I'm from the UK, I've only ever been to Norfolk once, seemed nice enough. I have a friend who's parents retired to Norfolk years ago, they say it's the land time forgot.

    I come from Southampton that has the New Forest to the West, not nearly as big as Norfolk, but has a few isolated areas where the pub goes silent when you walk in. Covid-19 is probably avoiding those people. There's some New Forest accents that are like nothing else in the South. Great place to visit, wouldn't want to live there.
    I'm wondering if we didn't bump into eachother at a MAZAK West coast event lurking near an I-200 ?

    There was one chap (from Bristol but had been many years in the USA) I had a brief conversation with about the crash-ability of these machines lol …

    I like that , indeed there are many such Pubs in the Fens.

    (I did have New forest pony as a kid... lol ) Explains a lot

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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    Let's all take a deep, hopefully cough free breath, and observe the following (which does not bode well for IMTS)

    1. Various models, made by very smart people, using very little information, give warning of a great hazard. Like all such circumstances, these warnings may or may not be correct - more facts will change them. However, charts of wordlwide new diagnosed cases are showing outright exponential growth. (Number of new cases per day is growing....) Bad omen.

    2. Models all have to make assumptions, and one assumption is the "do nothing" assumption. Except that even without government actions, that's not what all of any population does, and while reactions are slow, nobody is doing nothing. Some things that people sensibly claim governments ought to be adding - such as heavy testing and contact tracing - are not currently physically possible due to resource limits. Hence the shelter at home orders.

    3. Hospitals being overwhelmed is very bad, but it's somewhat independent of the spread or mortality of the disease - there are only so many icu beds per million people (for good reasons), AND at least some parts of the US, and I imagine elsewhere, were having a bad flu season when this started. So while that's a very tragic thing to have happen, it doesn't necessarily tell us much about prevalence.

    4. Events which require large and long planning - the olympics being a poster child for this - will continue to cancel well into the year. Unlike the olympics, IMTS already has a venue set (as does air venture), but like the olympics, the time required to build up to have a good show is long. So for *logistical* reasons, IMTS may well be effectively canceled already. (That is, since nobody *knows* if the world will be normal in September, and it's clearly NOT normal in April, and they have to decide if they're going or not, and commit resources, in April or before - well, don't expect much at IMTS this year.)

    5. Some ultra key facts are simply not known - the actual population infection rate and the fraction of the population already immune, being two key ones. I observe that the reported covid-positive rate reported in my local paper is only around 10% - which is odd because they are only testing people for whom there is some kind of worry. Genetic studies (see #1) seem to me to imply that this should be much higher number.

    IF it turns out that the infection rate really is some 10x to 20x higher than the positive test rate, then Seattle metro will have herd immunity forced on it in relatively short order, shelter-at-home or not. (Shelter-at-home has finite effectiveness - think of the poor extended famalies with 10 people in one smallish apartment, or the faddish buildings in Seattle with many small apartments and shared living, cooking, etc spaces. These will be like cruise ships....)

    IF it turns out that the existing infection rate is nowhere near as bad as feared, it suggests the disease isn't as effectively contagious as feared - at least in the social circumstances of Seattle. Part of that may be actions so far.

    AND NOT anywhere close to everybody on the cruise ships died, or even got infected, in spite of them being basically ideal devices to spread the disease. What does that mean?????

    (Likewise, there's a very real possibility that what cameraman is suffering from, and will hopefully very soon recover from, is not covid - it's not like all the other evil viruses in the world went away.)

    There is no KNOWN herd immunity, but for all we know 1/2 the population of Earth is actually effectively immune. Here's a weird thing - some 10% or so of Europeans are resistent to HIV (which was thought 100% irresistable a few years ago.) The conjecture (link below) is that this is a side effect of ancestors surffering through either smallpox or bubonic plague. Not an expected thing.
    303 See Other

    But there a lot of bodies. That is not in dispute.

    The daily news cycle does poorly when new hard facts are appearing so slowly. The world will seem wildly different in 3 weeks - for good or ill.

    Don't expect much if anything for IMTS 2020.

    Will there be an IMTS2022 - we'll see....
    I think the thing about IMTS in terms of vectoring is that the active machining community seems to be an "Older" bunch. And they themselves maybe looking after older relatives that are squarely in the most vulnerable age group. + you have younger reps etc. that won't be symptomatic at the trade show.

    To me it seems like it would be good time for folks to spruce up their web sites maybe even list one or two prices on things and maybe have pre booked skype sessions (through a web based time table) with specific vendors that can talk and show off various products "telepresently " especially for tooling , work holding systems and what not. They don't have to be altogether at the same physical location a stones throw from the Chicago "Bean". That could be orchestrated from respective vendor's home bases and have the skype booking sessions through the general period of when IMTS would have been going on. It's possible to obtain 85% of the same information that way. Just not walking around for days on end feeling totally overwhelmed. Now try that with "social distancing" gloves and masks ?

    I don't think it's a practical way to "Sell schtufff"

    ~ The whole point of IMTS is to sell the snot out of everything not be afraid that minute particles of snot may indeed be coating everything that three hundred people before yourself just touched ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    Don't expect much if anything for IMTS 2020.
    On the other hand, if they do have it, it could be a very productive one because of the absence of looky-loos. More of the people who do go are going to be serious.

    If I had a booth scheduled, I would not give up quite yet.

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    Most people that are serious dont need to look at a machine to buy it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fmari --MariTool- View Post
    Most people that are serious dont need to look at a machine to buy it.
    But in my opinion, IMTS is secondly for making deals. Mostly it is for education of users to new and different methodology to improve production.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2outof3 View Post
    But in my opinion, IMTS is secondly for making deals. Mostly it is for education of users to new and different methodology to improve production.
    I found stuff at IMTS I didn't know existed and no amount of google searches would have made me aware of their existence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fmari --MariTool- View Post
    Most people that are serious dont need to look at a machine to buy it.
    Comparison shopping. I know at the Beijing show there's lots of new stuff to see and directly compare. You can't do that by looking at ads.

    IMTS should be similar ? never got to walk around, had to talk to potentials

    Also I remember one AGMA show, quite a few booths, all pushing cnc hobbers (this was early) ... asked everyone what was the advantage, change gears come with the machine and it only takes a half hour to set up the gearing, why add a $40,000 control ?

    Only one booth had an answer that made sense. Liebherr explained that with nc they could remove all the drive train and make the base casting much stiffer, so accuracy was much better.

    Nowadays that would be obvious but back then, not so much. Electronics accuracy was not what it is today. But the important part was, you can talk to the manufacturers directly and find out who knows their stuff.

    No other way to do that, ime. I think shows is good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2outof3 View Post
    But in my opinion, IMTS is secondly for making deals. Mostly it is for education of users to new and different methodology to improve production.
    Yes, this is very true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    But the important part was, you can talk to the manufacturers directly and find out who knows their stuff.

    No other way to do that, ime. I think shows is good.
    Circulating virus or not, I would love to play the technical scavenger hunt game against you. I would bet a decent steak dinner that talking directly to manufacturers would reveal a disappointing conversation in a hurry, in today's day & age.

    The only exceptions that come to mind might be the Fanuc Robotics, Yamazen/Brother, and maybe Makino crowds. But by in large, I would take the bet...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jashley73 View Post
    Circulating virus or not, I would love to play the technical scavenger hunt game against you. I would bet a decent steak dinner that talking directly to manufacturers would reveal a disappointing conversation in a hurry ...
    I agree with you ! And those are the guys I put on the "do not believe" list. Sometimes it's not finding the good ones, it's eliminating the bad ones

    That AGMA show was a revelation to me, that so many big names did not have a clue ...

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    I was serious, and for years only bought things I'd seen in person at shows.

    And I only closed on my VF5 after going to visit a VF4 the dealer happened to have in stock. (It was all about clearence issues.)

    Of course, I've ordered Mari stuff and never seen them at a show - but I'm 15 years in now (no longer brand new at this), AND Mari has a good website describing relatively simple things.

    (WIth machines all of the issues around required service space , etc. matter and even Haas had to send inquiries to their engineers to answer some question. Tool holders and the like don't have this issue.)

    Yes, it is the case that there's a class of vendor where you go see one in person because their web site is inadequate, and their replies to your queries are inadequate, and you wonder if they built the machine from a pattern taped on the floor rather than a model.

    But in the vast clutter of the web, a big part of IMTS is walking around the edges to see small vendors I've never heard of, sometimes selling products I've never heard of. The web will replace that about the time it replaces shoping in person for produce.

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    Between IMTS and the HousTex show I have bought 3 mills and a lathe. Between being able to kick the tires and show deals they have been well worth attending and I was looking forward to this years show but I doubt it will happen. Maybe 2022.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cameraman View Post
    @gustafson thanks !

    I think you pretty much have a good handle on that.

    On my B-day a couple days ago I was very much at "Peace' as there was a slightly cool breeze, warm sun and not a cloud in the sky , hanging with my horse over the fence... Was pretty chill day. (even on solitary "lockdown').

    It's not like worrying is gonna make a virus "change course" . There is difference between not worrying versus inaction.

    But like you say I'm being vigilant as to things tipping sideways very quickly especially respitory(sp) wise (as you say "lung function". I've had the "runs" for about 5 days but better now (fingers crossed ).

    Waiting to turn the corner on this is a little frustrating... Seems to hang in there in a very "mediochre way" the "Silly but dangerous virus" lol, so I'm trying not to get caught out by the virus maybe pretending to "phone it in" and the it goes "Haaa gotcha ! Now try and breath sucker … ! " at 4am … . I don't feel super sick , just a bit drained (energy wise and sleep more than usual). So I feel better in the middle of the day and mornings and evenings lung wise. I'm kinda the opposite of a hypochondriac , but it's not allergies (as I don't "get" allergies nor the usual NM endless high desert fine dust being coughed up in the morning ~ I don't smoke) .

    So as you say I'll map out which facilities it might make sense to go to if things suddenly take a turn for the worst.

    Current barn manager I'll get him to wrap me up in cling film/ horse blanket carpet or something and throw me in the back of his horse trailer drag my ass to the hospital.

    __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ___


    *** Trying to get my head around IMTS 2020, personally I think that would be very reckless unless some kind of miracle happens.

    When you have to figure out who has been in contact with whom and when , and I'm normally more isolated than most, IMTS 2020 seems like sheer madness/ still in the "denial" phase of things... We're only human.
    From reports that are coming out now, if it looks like you have Covid-19 and gastro-intestinal symptoms start to show up (you get a bad case of the runs that is NOT from eating weird shit when you are sick), this is a strong indication that the virus is spreading from primarily respiratory to possibly systemic. This can be really bad because it can cause kidney failure and other things that you might need later to fail. This is when you really should think about going to the hospital because when you crash like this most people crash very fast. If you are younger with no other issues going on you have a decent chance if they get you on dialysis and a vent, older or with other issues, not so much. Good luck and stay safe.


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