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  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    2outof3 - yes to all of that, as time goes on we see a couple of other things.

    If we really get say 30% unemployment and a 30% or 40% drop in GDP by the end of the second quarter (which I suspect we will) some of the "but containing the virus is more important" talk will start to sound really out of touch with reality. Various states are now asking for nationwide grant of about $1T to make up for tax losses causes by their shutting down everybody else. Somehow it's OK to through a 1/4 or 1/3 of the workforce out of work, but heaven forbid we lay off public staff. Me thinks that either should be forced to go through some kind of bankrutpcy, or better yet face a requirement that they reduce staffing and spending somewhat proportionally to the damage they caused. This notion that only government jobs are essential and the rest are not is utter rubbish.

    Some parts of the lockdowns were clearly done with honest thought, but there have been plenty of examples of what amounts to mad lust for power or grinding political axes.

    What would be the point of the State to lay someone off doo to lack of funds?
    Then they just git on Unemployment and collect AT LEAST what they were making at work.

    ???


    I think that our little towns have actually been laying off some werkers, but they then git on the STATE unemployment, so there is gain there.


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    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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    Comparing by country is problematic since for example the US is some 10x the population of Canada.

    But worldomater has this data, and if you sort it by deaths/million population, and then ignore very tiny places like San Marino, you get an interesting result:
    Coronavirus Update (Live): 4,251,342 Cases and 287,012 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

    First note that Sweden did NOT "do nothing" - they just haven't resorted to heavy handed lockdowns, and have kept schools open. One of their officials admitted in an interview that they weren't quick enough on the nursing home problem either. (Nursing homes and like group facilities have been a problem basically everywhere.)

    But, Spain, Italy, UK, France, all have higher deaths/pop than the Sweden. It's numbers are quite close to the Netherlands. My understanding is that Italy, later Spain, eventually the UK, and from pretty early on France all had serious lockdowns.

    In the US, NY state (and mostly NYC) has 1388 deaths/million, worse than any single country. With a population of about 8million NY compares reasonably well to Sweden's 10million or so. NY had a rather aggressive, apparently enforced by the police, lockdown. And the other night the governor reported that 2/3rd of new cases are people who had been sheltering at home. This does not mean than lockdowns are useless, but they clearly have limits. And it's quite likely that heavy handed government imposition doesn't change their effectiveness much or at all.

    There is no particular reason to think that a less draconian lockdown (more like Sweden but by no means "normal") would have worked less well. Note that WA state wasn't has heavy handed as many places, and is doing pretty well. Except in a couple of counties where demographics basically assure high infection rates.

    The big fails here are assuming the most severe possible lockdown works much better than a very mild one, that lockdowns sustained for an overly long time actually help much, and that the economic fallout can be ignored as "it's just money" - an argument I presume is only made by people in protected jobs and comfortable living conditions. (Disclosure - it doesn't personally affect me much at all. I can stay comfortably "locked down" to the point where farming stops and I have to learn to garden again. My concern is for the economy as a whole and the people who have to live in it.)

    As for IMTS - it's a great example of what NOT to allow for a long time - a huge collection of strangers, who spend a LONG time in relative proximity, in shared indoor air. Maybe move it to Nevada and hold it outdoors in some windy place....

    So while I'm quite skeptical of lockdowns, I think the NFL and NBA should be written off until 2021 at least, and that IMTS, well, there's hope for 2022.

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  4. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    ....
    As for IMTS - it's a great example of what NOT to allow for a long time.......
    Please do not say that. I was already known as hermit to start with but this as the new world?
    As social animals mostly, where does that move us? Is it in fact good?
    I understand the medical side in spades and get this and it's huge benefit.
    Bob

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    I think they should host it with some basic common sense.
    People who have lung and health issues or 70+years old and at high risk can stay home if they're worried, for that fact anyone can stay home or wear a space suit if they're worried. If they think they have it and are sick they can stay home too eh...

    Rest of us who are healthy and not morbidly obese can survive this flu just fine if we catch it, most of us will never even know we had it.
    Just stay away from grand-ma or other high risk people for a couple weeks after you get back though just in case.

    I guess its a matter of if anyone still wants to go display their products and all that and if the ROI still pans out or not.
    You can bring a lot of people to your showroom for that $ and a lot less set up.

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  7. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by SND View Post
    I think they should host it with some basic common sense.
    People who have lung and health issues or 70+years old and at high risk can stay home if they're worried, for that fact anyone can stay home or wear a space suit if they're worried. If they think they have it and are sick they can stay home too eh...

    Rest of us who are healthy and not morbidly obese can survive this flu just fine if we catch it, most of us will never even know we had it.
    Just stay away from grand-ma or other high risk people for a couple weeks after you get back though just in case.

    I guess its a matter of if anyone still wants to go display their products and all that and if the ROI still pans out or not.
    You can bring a lot of people to your showroom for that $ and a lot less set up.
    SO good, stay away from grandma, or anyone who has a grandma, or anyone who works at a place who lives with a grandma, anyone whose spouse works at a place where there are grandmas.....

    Do you actually understand how disease transmission works?



    I don't know what will be happening in 4 months time, we shall see

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    SO good, stay away from grandma, or anyone who has a grandma, or anyone who works at a place who lives with a grandma, anyone whose spouse works at a place where there are grandmas.....

    Do you actually understand how disease transmission works?



    I don't know what will be happening in 4 months time, we shall see

    Good grief - what IS your long term plan over there?

    Planning on huddling down in a cold war bunker with your family unit for - ever?

    Masks and stay-at-home's apparently not worked all that well on the east coast.

    Maybe y'all should just get outside and git some fresh air like those of us out in the sticks have been dooing all along...
    It seems to by far be the worst for those that are all couped up.

    Maybe YOU should buy the space suit and stay home, and let the rest of us get on with life.


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    Fresh Air
    Ox

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    Think Fresh Air Eh!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    Good grief - what IS your long term plan over there?

    Planning on huddling down in a cold war bunker with your family unit for - ever?

    Masks and stay-at-home's apparently not worked all that well on the east coast.

    Maybe y'all should just get outside and git some fresh air like those of us out in the sticks have been dooing all along...
    It seems to by far be the worst for those that are all couped up.

    Maybe YOU should buy the space suit and stay home, and let the rest of us get on with life.


    Fresh Air
    Ox




    What is your long term plan?
    To be ignorant and selfish, think only of yourself ?

    Maybe ya'll should pay attention, I go out plenty, who is cooped up?

    I plan on listening to people who know what they are talking about and have studied things

    I do not plan on listening to chronically panicked conspiracy theorists fretting everything being an attack on them

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    Good grief - what IS your long term plan over there?

    Planning on huddling down in a cold war bunker with your family unit for - ever?

    Masks and stay-at-home's apparently not worked all that well on the east coast.

    Maybe y'all should just get outside and git some fresh air like those of us out in the sticks have been dooing all along...
    It seems to by far be the worst for those that are all couped up.

    Maybe YOU should buy the space suit and stay home, and let the rest of us get on with life.


    ------------------

    Fresh Air
    Ox
    a lot of people are going to end up dying from a worse disease than covid = mediaparasitis, takes away all common sense and critical thinking ability.
    in the end, maybe its a good thing? kill off all the dumbass motherfuckers...

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  13. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    What is your long term plan?
    To be ignorant and selfish, think only of yourself ?

    Maybe ya'll should pay attention, I go out plenty, who is cooped up?

    I plan on listening to people who know what they are talking about and have studied things

    I do not plan on listening to chronically panicked conspiracy theorists fretting everything being an attack on them

    My long term plan is that everyone at least gits subject to it, and either they git on with life - or not.

    For myself - I have posted that I have recently decided that I must have already had it.
    But I wasn't hunkerin' down even when I didn't think that I did.

    You wunna listen to the "experts"?
    You mean the ones that say to stay home b/c "we don't know that you can't catch it 2wice, and we don't know that if you doo catch it aggin - that maybe it could be worse."

    Or better yet - Mr. NY says:

    "Stay home b/c you never know when this thing might mutate in China, hop a plane, and end up on our shores yet aggin."


    Oh for Petey's sakes!



    Or - Schidt - just stay your assets to home and starve in a cold house b/c everyone stayed home and then you don't have to worry about a terrorist.



    --------------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    My long term plan is that everyone at least gits subject to it, and either they git on with life - or not.

    For myself - I have posted that I have recently decided that I must have already had it.
    But I wasn't hunkerin' down even when I didn't think that I did.

    You wunna listen to the "experts"?
    You mean the ones that say to stay home b/c "we don't know that you can't catch it 2wice, and we don't know that if you doo catch it aggin - that maybe it could be worse."

    Or better yet - Mr. NY says:

    "Stay home b/c you never know when this thing might mutate in China, hop a plane, and end up on our shores yet aggin."


    Oh for Petey's sakes!



    Or - Schidt - just stay your assets to home and starve in a cold house b/c everyone stayed home and then you don't have to worry about a terrorist.



    --------------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox
    and now it turns out that 66% of new cases in NY are people that stayed at home... yay logic!
    some people just arent capable or willing to think for themselves.

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    Back on topic:
    There is no way our governor will let IMTS happen this year.

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    And Archer120x - it might not matter. Many large players have already canceled. Many "registered" attendees will in the end cancel due to health fears. So more exhibitors will cancel. People like me will think "do I want to fly to Chicago, in a time of pandemic, to visit a show with 1/3 or 1/2 the exhibitors not there???? no..."

    Again, there's hope for IMTS in 2022.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Archer120x View Post
    Back on topic:
    There is no way our governor will let IMTS happen this year.
    That is definitely a problem and if all hotels are still ordered to stay closed down or at greatly reduced capacity. When I looked at going there a few years ago places to stay looked all booked well ahead of time.
    Certain politicians are doing all they can to push this until after the election and really hoping for that second wave...

    Government at work eh.

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  23. #175
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    The high $ hotels on or near Lake Shore Drive are booked up early. (at $300/night or more by now?)

    I drive aboot 45 minutes or so strait down 55 (?) that runs right into the joint, and get a room for $80 or so, and booked the day before.


    The downtown scene is fine if you like that shtuff (and Mamma is) but I have no use for it, and don't want to pay for it.



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    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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  25. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by empwoer View Post
    and now it turns out that 66% of new cases in NY are people that stayed at home... yay logic!
    some people just arent capable or willing to think for themselves.
    Uhh, yeah, yeah logic

    how many bobble head keep saying that


    The NUMBER of infections is lower than it would otherwise be if everyone were out on the street swapping spit with random strangers, so of course the PERCENTAGE of infections is high for those remaining at home as the MAJORITY are staying at home

    please examine logic, you seem to lack it

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Uhh, yeah, yeah logic

    how many bobble head keep saying that


    The NUMBER of infections is lower than it would otherwise be if everyone were out on the street swapping spit with random strangers, so of course the PERCENTAGE of infections is high for those remaining at home as the MAJORITY are staying at home

    please examine logic, you seem to lack it
    nice ASSumption there!

    if you're swapping spit with strangers on the street, you might have bigger issues than lack of common sense.

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    gustafson you are missing the point - which is that lockdowns have a finite effect. lots of households are not protected by them, and so lots of people are not protected. (By the way the source bobble head for that statistic is one Andrew Cuomo, governor of NY. Is he really shocked? Hard to say - I doubt any real public health scholar is.)

    Cuomo: Most new NY coronavirus hospitalizations are from people who stayed home


    to understand why, you have to think about dependency graphs, or supply chains. everybody agrees that food is essential. since 80+% of us do NOT live in sight of farms, the food we eat must come through a supply chain. it might be delivered, from a warehouse. suddenly delivery cars, and maintaince of them is essential, as of course is driving them. trucking to get the food to the warehouse is essential. which means that truck stops are essential (!!!) also, HVAC contractors for warehouses are essential -> people who sharpen blades for metal shears are essential. tire stores are essential. refineries are essential, if ONLY for food delivery.

    I have not yet found any studies of how big this fan-out (or dependency graph, or supply graph) really is, but I will presume we all agree that it must be pretty large.

    And so no lockdown can achieve total disease suppression, nor even flatten the curve beyond a limited amount.

    stay in lockdown until such and so testing, until such and so a vaccine, etc., are really "forever" - and is making a judgement that some unknowable number of avoided deaths is worth every growing economic pain.

    we don't actually do that for anything else. we have deaths due to alcohol, tobacco, the flu, and in none of those cases does our society successfully impose depression like economic oppression to avoid those deaths. (it was sometimes been tried and failed....)

    so there will come a time, this month, next month, but fairly soon, where everyplace will look like sweden (which is not close to pre-covid normal.)

    back to IMTS - that same supply graph applies, and if you judge IMTS to be non-essential, or high risk, and too soon - then there is an implied risk for an enourmous number of people who set it up.

    and some number of those people would be facing travel and exposure risks NOW (when the virus is clearly not in control) to set up for an event several months in the future - and so signing up for IMTS involves taking pandemic risk even if the pandemic is gone by show time.

    and so while I think the lockdowns should be opened up pretty quickly, that does not extend to large indoor events, as I said before, the NBA, the NFL, IMTS, Fabtech, should be written off until 2021.

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  30. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    gustafson you are missing the point - which is that lockdowns have a finite effect. lots of households are not protected by them, and so lots of people are not protected. (By the way the source bobble head for that statistic is one Andrew Cuomo, governor of NY. Is he really shocked? Hard to say - I doubt any real public health scholar is.)

    Cuomo: Most new NY coronavirus hospitalizations are from people who stayed home


    to understand why, you have to think about dependency graphs, or supply chains. everybody agrees that food is essential. since 80+% of us do NOT live in sight of farms, the food we eat must come through a supply chain. it might be delivered, from a warehouse. suddenly delivery cars, and maintaince of them is essential, as of course is driving them. trucking to get the food to the warehouse is essential. which means that truck stops are essential (!!!) also, HVAC contractors for warehouses are essential -> people who sharpen blades for metal shears are essential. tire stores are essential. refineries are essential, if ONLY for food delivery.

    I have not yet found any studies of how big this fan-out (or dependency graph, or supply graph) really is, but I will presume we all agree that it must be pretty large.

    And so no lockdown can achieve total disease suppression, nor even flatten the curve beyond a limited amount.

    stay in lockdown until such and so testing, until such and so a vaccine, etc., are really "forever" - and is making a judgement that some unknowable number of avoided deaths is worth every growing economic pain.

    we don't actually do that for anything else. we have deaths due to alcohol, tobacco, the flu, and in none of those cases does our society successfully impose depression like economic oppression to avoid those deaths. (it was sometimes been tried and failed....)

    so there will come a time, this month, next month, but fairly soon, where everyplace will look like sweden (which is not close to pre-covid normal.)

    back to IMTS - that same supply graph applies, and if you judge IMTS to be non-essential, or high risk, and too soon - then there is an implied risk for an enourmous number of people who set it up.

    and some number of those people would be facing travel and exposure risks NOW (when the virus is clearly not in control) to set up for an event several months in the future - and so signing up for IMTS involves taking pandemic risk even if the pandemic is gone by show time.

    and so while I think the lockdowns should be opened up pretty quickly, that does not extend to large indoor events, as I said before, the NBA, the NFL, IMTS, Fabtech, should be written off until 2021.
    you're wasting time trying to get a liberal to apply logic and common sense man.

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  32. #180
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    Not nearly as big a waste as trying to talk science to all the Trump monkeys out there.


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