Competitive mill run pricing on 17-4 bar stock?

Green0 · Dec 21, 2019

We bought 4 mill runs from carpenter tech in February and got to a reorder point for four more now in December and quotes are 40% higher per pound.

Anyone know which mills are competitive for 17-4 annealed, cold finished bar stock in mill run qualities?

We need pricing more like stable with the rate of inflation.

as9100d · Dec 21, 2019

Green0 said:
We bought 4 mill runs from carpenter tech in February and got to a reorder point for four more now in December and quotes are 40% higher per pound.

Anyone know which mills are competitive for 17-4 annealed, cold finished bar stock in mill run qualities?

We need pricing more like stable with the rate of inflation.

Good luck. Our price shit up some 40% also. It followed the price of aluminum.

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DanASM · Dec 22, 2019

I had a rep for the 2nd biggest SS mill in the world tell me nickel went up .70 cents in a week. It was 4-6 weeks ago. This was a very big increase he told me but happens all the time. Nickel seems to fluctuate a lot.

Milland · Dec 22, 2019

DanASM said:
I had a rep for the 2nd biggest SS mill in the world tell me nickel went up .70 cents in a week.

Speculation or actual demand - any idea?

Green0 · Dec 22, 2019

The quote had rms (raw material surcharge) moving about 3 cents or 1.5 percent of the 40% implying that majority motion was just price motion.

17-4 is 17% chromium, 4% nicle, 4% copper, so not a lot of nickle content to move RMS.

DanASM · Dec 22, 2019

Milland said:
Speculation or actual demand - any idea?

He told me that the U.S doesnt have abundant Nickel reserves. Most of it comes from overseas. Some countries we arent too friendly with. I know Russia has a lot of Nickel. I believe S. Korea was another.

He told me it was the only mineral in the SS that fluctuates as such due to it being harder to source.

I had another Aerospace shop tell me he quoted a 2" round SS job and got the P.O. 2 weeks later. The material went up almost $2k for everything he needed in that 2 weeks. All from the price of Nickel.

I believe Nickel has a lot of other uses and is not mainly used in SS production so other industries can suck up the nickel demand and in return SS prices go up.

I was told that the swing on nickel prices goes up and down quite a bit and I should never assume SS pricing is the same as last week. Always call for updated pricing.

Milland · Dec 22, 2019

Interesting. Here's a list of nickel reserves by country, and with most we have good relations: Top Nickel Reserves by Country | INN (there's some marketing BS in there too).

I'd bet at least part of the rapid moves are speculators, but maybe that's just my cynical self. It's not like we've seen any part of the world's economy spike in activity lately...

Milland · Dec 22, 2019

And here's a chart (not quite up to date) showing a month's worth of changes in nickel pricing to the 13th: 1 Month Nickel Prices and Nickel Price Charts - InvestmentMine

Looks fairly flat to mid-month, maybe it's the mills jerking us around.

[Added a one year chart]

DanASM · Dec 22, 2019

Milland said:
Interesting. Here's a list of nickel reserves by country, and with most we have good relations: Top Nickel Reserves by Country | INN (there's some marketing BS in there too).

I'd bet at least part of the rapid moves are speculators, but maybe that's just my cynical self. It's not like we've seen any part of the world's economy spike in activity lately...

I would have never thought Cuba would have more of anything that the U.S. has. Wow!

Also I didnt think the U.S. would have such small reserves. I knew they were smaller than other nations but that is very small compared to the size of our industry.

Larry on Lake Superior · Dec 22, 2019

Copper/Nickel mines in MN.
There are currently two companies somewhere in the permitting process to mine copper, nickel and precious metals near parks/national forests in northeastern MN. Apparently the process they want to use has ALWAYS resulted in massive ecological problems. The projected economic life span would be 20 yrs.while the pollution hazard would last for millenia. Most of the locals want the projects to proceed.

Green0 · Dec 25, 2019

We machine this stuff and scrap the turnings for 18 cents per lb all the time. It would seem pretty logical that they could recover raw material from the 90 percent of the stock we cut and essentially throw away to people who are supposed to be recycling it.

EmGo · Dec 26, 2019

DanASM said:
I was told that the swing on nickel prices goes up and down quite a bit and I should never assume SS pricing is the same as last week. Always call for updated pricing.

Heaven forbid the fuckers keep a little in reserve so the price doesn't fluctuate so much, eh ? Or would that be too easy ?

Sounds like a big fat excuse to me.

DanASM · Dec 26, 2019

EmanuelGoldstein said:
Heaven forbid the fuckers keep a little in reserve so the price doesn't fluctuate so much, eh ? Or would that be too easy ?

Sounds like a big fat excuse to me.

Its 6 months to get a mill run. If they sell it faster they still cant get more for 6 months. If they buy more and then the price drops they will be stuck with extra high priced SS in stock. People would buy from elsewhere due to pricing and they would be stuck with too much stock on hand.

EmGo · Dec 26, 2019

DanASM said:
Its 6 months to get a mill run. If they sell it faster they still cant get more for 6 months. If they buy more and then the price drops they will be stuck with extra high priced SS in stock. People would buy from elsewhere due to pricing and they would be stuck with too much stock on hand.

Oh ! Oh ! The poor babies ! It's not like anyone here had to pay upfront for $200,000 nc machines and a shop to put them and tools to cut with and measuring equipment to make sure the parts are right and $30/hr labor and insurance to cover everything up to and including an invasion from Mars, nooo, we just write up them big invoices and have no skin in the game whatsoever ! We're just rolling in it, I can understand why them steel companies wouldn't want to risk a penny of potential proooofit !

wtf, are these assholes in the steel business or are they just a bunch of finance pricks playing at it ?

Get with the program, dipshits. These crap excuses don't buy nuthin'.

AJ H · Dec 26, 2019

Green0 said:
We machine this stuff and scrap the turnings for 18 cents per lb all the time. It would seem pretty logical that they could recover raw material from the 90 percent of the stock we cut and essentially throw away to people who are supposed to be recycling it.

Amazing the amount of materials we pay through the nose for and the chips aren't worth squat in comparison. HY80 and a lot of the 400 series SS is the same way. If we aren't doing a lot of it many times it just ends up in the carbon dumpster.

DDoug · Dec 26, 2019

Interesting.

I took a tour this summer of a "melt shop", they had a 50 ton arc furnace and a mixer, so could pour IIRC 100 ton ingots.

they did allot of alloys, including nickel rich.

They told me they purchase scrap navy boat (armor ?) plate, as it has IIRC 3% nickel, and then they don't need to add so much raw nickel.

Cole2534 · Dec 26, 2019

EmanuelGoldstein said:
Oh ! Oh ! The poor babies ! It's not like anyone here had to pay upfront for $200,000 nc machines and a shop to put them and tools to cut with and measuring equipment to make sure the parts are right and $30/hr labor and insurance to cover everything up to and including an invasion from Mars, nooo, we just write up them big invoices and have no skin in the game whatsoever ! We're just rolling in it, I can understand why them steel companies wouldn't want to risk a penny of potential proooofit !

wtf, are these assholes in the steel business or are they just a bunch of finance pricks playing at it ?

Get with the program, dipshits. These crap excuses don't buy nuthin'.

You sound economically illiterate.

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Green0 · Dec 26, 2019

AJ H said:
Amazing the amount of materials we pay through the nose for and the chips aren't worth squat in comparison. HY80 and a lot of the 400 series SS is the same way. If we aren't doing a lot of it many times it just ends up in the carbon dumpster.

Yeah I don't understand why with the Raw material surcharge stable, the price has to fluctuate 40% on the finished good. It seems like they just got confident and decided to price gouge.

EmGo · Dec 26, 2019

Cole2534 said:
You sound economically illiterate.

You sound like a sheep. Or one of the marks at the carnival ....

Cole2534 · Dec 26, 2019

EmanuelGoldstein said:
You sound like a sheep. Or one of the marks at the carnival ....

You not understanding how the buying process works makes you dumb.

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