Corona virus affecting your business ? Over reaction?
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    Default Corona virus affecting your business ? Over reaction?

    I've been somewhat skeptical that this thing has been overblown by the press. Don't get me wrong, disease and death are terrible things, but lots more people die from the "regular" flu and other illnesses than the corona virus. What is the deal with people hoarding toilet paper? I can understand hand sanitizer and masks going in short supply, but toilet paper? Do people think the workers in the toilet paper industry are going to get sick and they won't be able to get it? Lots of revenue going to be lost with the cancellation of sporting events. Schools and colleges closing? Stock market / Federal reserve going crazy? I've had a few customers ask if my supply chain is going to be affected, at this rate , I don't really know. I buy domestic steel, plastic, brass, aluminium. Is transportation going to affected (not talking about travel of people, but supply of goods)? This hysteria could get out of hand, I just don't get it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RJT View Post
    I've been somewhat skeptical that this thing has been overblown by the press. Don't get me wrong, disease and death are terrible things, but lots more people die from the "regular" flu and other illnesses than the corona virus. What is the deal with people hoarding toilet paper? I can understand hand sanitizer and masks going in short supply, but toilet paper? Do people think the workers in the toilet paper industry are going to get sick and they won't be able to get it? Lots of revenue going to be lost with the cancellation of sporting events. Schools and colleges closing? Stock market / Federal reserve going crazy? I've had a few customers ask if my supply chain is going to be affected, at this rate , I don't really know. I buy domestic steel, plastic, brass, aluminium. Is transportation going to affected (not talking about travel of people, but supply of goods)? This hysteria could get out of hand, I just don't get it.
    There seems to be alot of mis-information out there. Not to say I am 'right' but I think comparing it to the regular flu is a littlle ...ehh? The mortality rate of corona is something like 3% and the flu is .1% (or maybe 1% ?) *

    My wife works in retail and one of their employees started to show symptoms and is in the process of being tested for corona.

    * I don't know if those numbers are correct or not, but it seems to be what we are being told by the media (take that how you will! )

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    India just retracted visa, Denmark joins the long list of countries which have shuttered their entire country, Italy went from one case to nationwide shutdown with an overwhelmed health care system with Triage determinations for who can get life saving care in 15 DAYS, the US just shut down travel from all of Europe.

    You know what I don’t get.
    How can anyone can call these events media hype.

    The one goal is to spread this event over enough time that the health care system can handle it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RJT View Post
    I've been somewhat skeptical that this thing has been overblown by the press. Don't get me wrong, disease and death are terrible things, but lots more people die from the "regular" flu and other illnesses than the corona virus. What is the deal with people hoarding toilet paper? I can understand hand sanitizer and masks going in short supply, but toilet paper? Do people think the workers in the toilet paper industry are going to get sick and they won't be able to get it? Lots of revenue going to be lost with the cancellation of sporting events. Schools and colleges closing? Stock market / Federal reserve going crazy? I've had a few customers ask if my supply chain is going to be affected, at this rate , I don't really know. I buy domestic steel, plastic, brass, aluminium. Is transportation going to affected (not talking about travel of people, but supply of goods)? This hysteria could get out of hand, I just don't get it.
    Corona virus is 30 times more deadly than the flu

    Left unregulated, do the math

    China locked down entire cities to limit deaths to 3000 in maybe 100k cases.

    The US is running 2-4 percent death rate

    There were 30 million flu cases in the US last year, with ~35k deaths [.15%]

    30 million Corona virus cases would lead you to say a million deaths, by the numbers

    So, is it an overreaction?

    Do the math

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    Evidently I've not kept up with the facts and projections. If these are facts, I understand the situation better. I just hope this isn't being driven by unsubstantiated exaggeration. I wonder if this would be getting as much attention in the press and causing this much disruption if there were some other major news story to report on ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by RJT View Post
    Evidently I've not kept up with the facts and projections. If these are facts, I understand the situation better. I just hope this isn't being driven by unsubstantiated exaggeration. I wonder if this would be getting as much attention in the press and causing this much disruption if there were some other major news story to report on ?
    What would be a bigger story* than a viral outbreak that has schools shutting down, the NBA cancelling the season, the number of deaths in such short order..

    *Minus some extremes like aliens landing

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    China did a piss-poor job managing the coronvirus outbreak, yet they are already on the declining side of the infection curve. So for them, it's looking like a 3-to-4 month cycle at the longest.

    Corona has already been in the US for close to two months, so with the actions we have taken, there's a good chance we're already close to the peak....if you go by what's happened in China.

    Take a deep breath America, be diligent for a few more weeks, then let's get back to business.

    ToolCat

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike1974 View Post
    What would be a bigger story* than a viral outbreak that has schools shutting down, the NBA cancelling the season, the number of deaths in such short order..

    *Minus some extremes like aliens landing
    Add to that March Madness played without fans. That will hurt the local businesses a lot.

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    The media has a solid track-record of telling the truth. They have no reason to generate fear. We all need to come together, stop thinking, and do what the authorities and experts say. It's not for any of us to question the facts. If we're lucky, we can give up a few more freedoms and this unfolding disaster won't kill us all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    The media has a solid track-record of telling the truth. They have no reason to generate fear. We all need to come together, stop thinking, and do what the authorities and experts say. It's not for any of us to question the facts. If we're lucky, we can give up a few more freedoms and this unfolding disaster won't kill us all.
    Oh gosh, this just got good .

    In 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...

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    Have to admit that hoarding toilet paper seems pretty stupid to me, too ....

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    China did a piss-poor job managing the coronvirus outbreak, yet they are already on the declining side of the infection curve. So for them, it's looking like a 3-to-4 month cycle at the longest.

    Corona has already been in the US for close to two months, so with the actions we have taken, there's a good chance we're already close to the peak....if you go by what's happened in China.

    Take a deep breath America, be diligent for a few more weeks, then let's get back to business.

    ToolCat
    Yes and no, but once they did, they were able to take [authoritarian] steps we are not used to seeing

    Compared to what we have done, they look like geniuses

    I do think it possible that this could pass quickly, but it is hard to say until the curve breaks.

    We are still on the vertical line section of the epidemic, and until it breaks, we do not know the size of the problem

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Corona virus is 30 times more deadly than the flu

    Left unregulated, do the math

    China locked down entire cities to limit deaths to 3000 in maybe 100k cases.

    The US is running 2-4 percent death rate

    There were 30 million flu cases in the US last year, with ~35k deaths [.15%]

    30 million Corona virus cases would lead you to say a million deaths, by the numbers

    So, is it an overreaction?

    Do the math
    COVID-19 is not 30 times more deadly than the flu. Worst case scenario it might be 10X at the very worst. It needs to be kept in perspective that to date, that the majority of the deaths have occurred in patients that were already in health care facilities with significant health issues. This includes the major initial outbreak in China.

    This information is in the epidemiology reports from WHO and CDC and the actual doctor reports from China hospitals.

    The primary health issue is fluid in the lungs and the secondary issues come from respiratory inefficiency which lead to organ distress and possible organ failure.

    Turns out that the most accurate method of checking for COVID-19 is a CT chest scan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    The media has a solid track-record of telling the truth. They have no reason to generate fear. We all need to come together, stop thinking, and do what the authorities and experts say. It's not for any of us to question the facts. If we're lucky, we can give up a few more freedoms and this unfolding disaster won't kill us all.
    I guess the voices in your head are a more accurate source of information

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    COVID-19 is not 30 times more deadly than the flu. Worst case scenario it might be 10X at the very worst. It needs to be kept in perspective that to date, that the majority of the deaths have occurred in patients that were already in health care facilities with significant health issues. This includes the major initial outbreak in China.

    This information is in the epidemiology reports from WHO and CDC and the actual doctor reports from China hospitals.

    The primary health issue is fluid in the lungs and the secondary issues come from respiratory inefficiency which lead to organ distress and possible organ failure.

    Turns out that the most accurate method of checking for COVID-19 is a CT chest scan.
    Bullsh*t

    seasonal flu: .1 percent mortality

    Covid: over 3 percent

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Bullsh*t

    seasonal flu: .1 percent mortality

    Covid: over 3 percent
    Go read the reports.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    seasonal flu: .1 percent mortality

    Covid: over 3 percent
    I'm in complete agreement. The TV said so, so we know this is true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    China did a piss-poor job managing the coronvirus outbreak, yet they are already on the declining side of the infection curve. So for them, it's looking like a 3-to-4 month cycle at the longest.

    Corona has already been in the US for close to two months, so with the actions we have taken, there's a good chance we're already close to the peak....if you go by what's happened in China.

    Take a deep breath America, be diligent for a few more weeks, then let's get back to business.

    ToolCat
    almost exactly what they said in Italy, some two weeks ago.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    Go read the reports.
    Wbhy don't you?

    Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of
    COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the
    number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number
    of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually
    well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

    From the WHO report

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    at the moment the death rate in Italy is 44 % .
    yes forty four!
    44 % of all the cases that have been closed ended in death.


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