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  1. #2361
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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    Phht.. BFD.

    Look closer. He's in Canada, not Nevada.

    That's only "KmH", not "MPH".
    shesh. thanks captain obvious, the real point was how empty the highways are.

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    At least 10 First Nation possible remedies if one was out in the bush with no drugs to be found.
    Yes likely many would die before finding the right one..if one could ever be found. No I am not a First Nation medicine man,

    The lowly cuca cuca bush Burdock - Natural Home Remedies and Cures

    Quillaja saponaria (soap bark)
    Quillaja saponaria - Wikipedia
    a number of tree barks and the like:
    From a tree, a 'miracle' called aspirin - CNN.com

    Doctors might know about herbals but don't recommend them because people tend to not be careful about dosage. Plus you can't make money if medicine can be found in ones backyard

    19 companies working on a new drug
    These 19 companies are working on coronavirus treatments or vaccines — here’s where things stand - MarketWatch

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    Think on this.

    Not so many days ago, most of us would rush off to work each morning. We took for granted that our "toilet requirements" would be fulfilled as needed at the work place.

    Now, we are shuttered from those "employee benefits" and must provide for ourselves. I bet there are boxes and boxes in every custodial closet in workplaces across the nation.

    No wonder there is a toilet paper shortage at the grocery store!

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    The post I made today about the the odd police event with them taking their tire flats out of their trunks was because of a lady fleeing cops with a 5 year old in the car..yes she crashed but nobody got killed.
    Video shows moment vehicle crashes, ending police chase in Clinton Township

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    wow.

    if you totally fail on corona.

    switch over to the war on drugs.

    use corona and drugs to deploy friggin destroyers?

    what a load.

    well, i guess we got that transparency in govt.

  9. #2367
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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    I suspect many drug companies are working on the corona virus. I hold shares in a few of these outfits. If one should come up with something useful then fast-tract will be allowed.

    China should have alerted the world sooner IMHO.
    Bit hard for them to have done that and say they did - you would have gotten an extra month of warning time.

    Problem is, you did NOTHING with the warning time you did get, so I really doubt it would have made any difference.

    You guys have screwed the pooch big-time on this. Your leadership took it all far too casually for too long, now you're going to pay for it.

    Lots of our cases have come from cruise ship passengers and others returning from overseas. Community level transmission hasn't been huge so far. That's the point of restricting peoples' movement.

    Scotty would far prefer a massive death rate than people being told to stay home. Of course that's after arguing for weeks that the whole thing was overblown and there WOULDN'T be a big death rate. Many others obviously agree with him. You can't fix stupid but guess what, virii and disease don't care.

    PDW

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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    Bit hard for them to have done that and say they did - you would have gotten an extra month of warning time.

    Problem is, you did NOTHING with the warning time you did get, so I really doubt it would have made any difference.

    You guys have screwed the pooch big-time on this. Your leadership took it all far too casually for too long, now you're going to pay for it.

    Lots of our cases have come from cruise ship passengers and others returning from overseas. Community level transmission hasn't been huge so far. That's the point of restricting peoples' movement.

    Scotty would far prefer a massive death rate than people being told to stay home. Of course that's after arguing for weeks that the whole thing was overblown and there WOULDN'T be a big death rate. Many others obviously agree with him. You can't fix stupid but guess what, virii and disease don't care.

    PDW
    PDW

    Have you an opinion about the Swedes?

  12. #2369
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    shesh. thanks captain obvious, the real point was how empty the highways are.
    Well, then "Captain Oblivious", yah might have shown more empty highway and less full instrument panel???



    Mind.. Safer to take photos at lesser velocities, too, wuddn' yah think?

    "Distractions" can be bad enough some folks can't walk and chew gum at the same time, let alone navigate at 150 Klicks-per and use a camera.

    Felony in Virginia. Not misdemeanor. Year and a day in jail.

    Be glad yer not here. I am.


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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    Fool. Greater risk of dying on US highways than in combat in Vietnam partly because... close to 100% of 18-25 year-old males drove cars in the USA but fewer than FOUR percent of those who served in Vietnam ever even SAW "combat". Some years, fewer than TWO percent. Acverage is but 2.91%.

    Easily a third of our casualties were not FROM combat AT ALL!

    Vietnam Statistics | US War Dog Association | National Headquarters

    Too much to read because you might strain your atrophied MIND trying to spin that?

    KISS method, then.

    Simply drop a third off the number of dead over each of fifteen years.

    Now go back over the same years and total up the 18-25 males in highway death toll.

    It happens to be an age-range the inch-hoorance companies pay attention to.

    Because it had LONG been the highest-risk segment, war or never.

    Only change I am aware of is that females - once very LOW risk, gradually started catching up to males as high-risk. Doubt that was a any big jump as to more balls than brains rat-racing junkers, drunk, on bad roads and worse tires. Cellphones, feel-better drugs, and other distractions more likely.

    Road accidemts IN 'nam? We surely HAD them. But it was the Viet in a Lambretta taxi-trike or family of five on a 90 cc motorbike as came second-best to tactical trucks and tracks.

    Had to pause en-route to Saigon one trip to help the krew of a 5T LWB demount one outside dual to get a father of three's detached HEAD unwedged so the police could put it with the rest of his family's remains. Krew that he'd wobbled UNDER whilst trying to pass were still too much in shock to deal with it
    .

    Bill, It was pages ago I thought you might either quintuple down on your assertion that a young man (18-25) had a greater risk of dying at home in an auto accident than dying in combat in Vietnam - or change the subject.

    Seems you changed the subject several times, before quintupling down.

    Perhaps the only reason to show you, again, how risk is calculated is because just a tiny bit of thinking (by those who insist they're smarter than the generals, doctors, judges, diplomats, etc.) is also required to understand why things like viruses go "viral."

    So:

    1) Risk here is the odds of dying. In something like Russian Roulette, with one bullet in six chambers, it's 1 in 6 the first time around.

    2) The risk of someone dying in combat over a tour of duty, let's say a year, in Vietnam is the number who died in combat divided by the number who were in combat in any year.

    3) The risk of a young man (you said 18-25) dying in a motor vehicle accident in any year is the number who die in a motor vehicle accident, divided by the total number exposed to that risk of being in a motor vehicle sometime that year.

    I could let you try the math, since you don't trust anyone from "Kalifornia" to do fractions. Or others who seem to agree with you could do the math. But here's a strawman - go and find other accurately sourced numbers if you wish.

    In 1970 we have roughly 12 million young men aged 18-25 who are US citizens. We send 500,000 of them to Vietnam. 11,500,000 young men stay home. Take out the Quakers and the like and maybe 11,000,000 are in a motor vehicle sometime over the year. We could do the numbers for all the years of the Vietnam War and still come to roughly similar risks.

    Back in Vietnam (1970 again) there might be 500,000 in various roles. But as you said only a few were actually in combat. One number has 10%. Another says only 3%. Pick your favorite, the 10% is easy and makes you look better. Heck, make it 30% if you want. There are around 50,000 in any year who see combant. If 5,000 of them come back in body bags, then the risk of dying is 1 in 10. Again, find any valid numbers you wish. This is the order of magnitude. Other numbers, maybe you get 1 in 50, even 1 in 100. Still, you insist we count only those actually in combat, not all the support staff out of harms way.

    Back in the USA there were also around 5,000 traffic deaths among young men (same number! you say) aged 18-25 in that same year. That's 5,000 testosterone-fueled young men out of 11,000,000 young men exposed to the horrors of the Amercian road. The risk of dying is 5,000 / 11,000,000. Make it 11,000 if you wish (not that high - but the math is easy). That's a 1 out of 1000 chance of dying. The actual risk, even for young men, was lower - more like 1 in 2000. Across all age groups (and, yes, young men at higher risk) the odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident in 1970 were 0.25 out of 1000. The average young man aged 18-25 is about 2x as likely to die (0.50 out of 1000) and pays about 2x more for insurance than those on other 7 year intervals (25-32, 33-40, 41-49, 50-57, 58-65 etc.), Get 66++ and rates start going up again.

    Back to Russian Roulette. In one case we have a "10 shooter" with one bullet inside. In the other case we have a "1000 shooter" with one bullet inside. You really going to keep recommending we put the first one to our heads?

    The rest of the real world works like this as well. Facts matter. Repeatedly calling someone a liar, a fool, unable to do math, etc. won't make you right on your assertions. Not even when quintupling down.

    Main point here is that whether it's supporting a preposterous notion like it being safer in combat in Vietnam than spending a year back home, or a failure to anticipate a pandemic because, um, there's only a few cases now and it will be down to zero in a couple days, or maybe the effects of using debt to boost the Dow or ignoring something like climate change . . . .
    we will be in a world of hurt if we not only can't get things right the first time, but keep insisting we're right as a war, pandemic, recession, etc. rages around us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    PDW

    Have you an opinion about the Swedes?
    Swedes have pretty bold strategy still at this point compared to pretty much any other nation.
    Can't say that it would be any worse in long run, only time will tell.

    Compared to our neighbors Finland vs Sweden:
    3.5 deaths per 1 million vs 24 in Sweden (US 16)
    11 critical per 1 million vs 40 in Sweden (US 17)

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    It was pages ago I thought
    Lot more than "pages ago" you "thought".

    Several years, already since you shifted from thinking to trolling is it not?

    What happened?

    Retired and got so bored yah figured to make a new career of winding up the grown-ups?

    We outsourced that role to an independent contractor in Kolding, Denmark ages ago!

    And then.. found a cheaper source and outsourced it AGAIN to a naughtier-yet Kaliforkinyah expat in Stinkhigh - were the PRC Government could subsidize the spend.


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    Trying to compare war time hurt or auto accidents to this virus is pointless.
    In one many end up losing a arm, leg or other bodily functions which sure are bad for the rest if your days.
    In the other, you live and recover or die.

    We have no stop, I worry if we do flatten the curve there is the same number under that curve. The graphs being shown all look nicer but do the calculus.
    It will just come slower and be easier to accept.
    Slowing is great in a hope for something we do not have now.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    Swedes have pretty bold strategy still at this point compared to pretty much any other nation.
    Can't say that it would be any worse in long run, only time will tell.

    Compared to our neighbors Finland vs Sweden:
    3.5 deaths per 1 million vs 24 in Sweden (US 16)
    11 critical per 1 million vs 40 in Sweden (US 17)
    Probably much to EARLY a time to yet tell, but....

    Sweden coould - "plan or not" - be taking a heavier hit NOW to find themselves with a LESSER hit, next cycle. See "herd immunity".

    "Bold" it is, though.

    Deliberate or not, is could be de facto wagering that no effective preventive vaccine will be available until third or subsequent cycle.

    Take the hit. Let the superb human immune system do the heavy-lifting?

    They may be correct. Even so....grateful it is not a call "we" had to make.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Trying to compare war time hurt or auto accidents to this virus is pointless.
    In one many end up losing a arm, leg or other bodily functions which sure are bad for the rest if your days.
    In the other, you live and recover or die.
    Actually not so disconnected. Very MUCH not. A very large number of injuries had nearly the same effect and needed nearly the same remediation.

    It wasn't - so far as is KNOWN- in anyone's PLAN, but there was a MASSIVE improvement in civil trauma treatment effectiveness off the lessons learned from means, mechanisms, and skills developed during the course of that war.

    A huge headcount of Doctors and nurses and "not-only" cycled back into the "world", their experience of great value.

    We didn't just get "better". We got FASTER and more focussed on what was critical.

    Survival rates went up. A good deal of maiming was also avoided. Speed in getting support to stabiize and more effective treatment were bumped-up enormously. Our "rescue squad" first-responders soon had portable goods "on the truck" that had not existed in a hospital's arsenal.

    I'm not so generous as to call that a "war DIVIDEND" Nor even less inclined to class it as a "peace" dividend. Fifteen years of tragedy, compounded by a badly-mangled bail-out don't fit my idea of "peace".

    But huge sums of taxpayer-sourced MONEY having been thrown at it?
    Good news was coming out of it with greatly enhanced surgery capability and better "outcomes". Even far better prosthetics.

    Causes as well. Driving impaired finally recognized as the primary causal factor rather than the easy cop-out that it was mostly due to "speeding".

    To the good, enforcement shifted to intercepting DUI, "designated driver" education, to PREVENT it.. and then.. safer vehicles.

    Airbags and annoying reminders instead of just passive seatbelts that were not even USED further tilted the balance to the positive side. Drivers, vehicle, and driving are MUCH safer per-mile now.

    Next war came? Better treatment went back OUT to the field, back came new feedback to up the survival bar, yet again.

    We'll be seing more of a similar raising of the capability set off the "war" on COVID-19.

    Shit-lousy way to up yer surgical game, a(ny) war is. But if the eperience helps, don't WASTE it. Put it to USE. Already "paid for" and bought in blood, sweat, tears.. and rather a lot of "treasure" as well.

    Better treaments and earlier ability to test WILL come.

    Not just more of the same as for Influenza and hope for a measure of mercy.

    Average virus can't even SPELL "mercy".

  19. #2376
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    ...We have no stop, I worry if we do flatten the curve there is the same number under that curve. The graphs being shown all look nicer but do the calculus.
    It will just come slower and be easier to accept.
    Slowing is great in a hope for something we do not have now.
    Bob
    It's not easy to see on the CDC charts because the way the are drawn makes you think it's a shorter cycle if no mitigation. That's not the case.

    The graphs they showed yesterday, the fatalities with no mitigation were 1.5-2.2 million. With the mitigation, the estimate was 100K-200K.

    That's a big difference, and it makes a big difference in the ability to treat people who fall ill.

    We have basically 2 mitigations. The first is the 6 foot distance between people. The second is the "Stay at home". Of the two, the largest effect is the 6 foot separation.

    They also modeled the extensive testing scenario, and it had the least effect on the curve. Presumably because testing someone does not protect them from catching the virus. The Asian countries did not just test. They tested and they mitigated.

    Here is the model they are using, a little clearer image.

    COVID-19

    A mention about the models- they are assuming every metropolitan area in the US will experience the same thing New York and New Jersey are seeing. That hasn't happened yet, and if it doesn't happen the 100K-200K number is high. Of the 50 States, only New York and New Jersey were on the "Italy" curve. Washington and California and the rest of the States on the graph look more like South Korea. That shouldn't make anyone over-confident, but it suggests that there is some hope.

    We're in a tug of war- with the virus trying to spread, and us trying to prevent it. The counteracting forces makes it hard to measure the effects today, they will become more apparent in the next 2 weeks.

  20. #2377
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post

    So much for the news, Milland. If they had two cents' worth of honesty I'd agree with you but as it is ...
    Don't hand me that sack of shit, EG. Faux Crudes is nothing about "news", it's about making money by stirring up its reactionary base and being a propaganda outlet for the Master Right. The guys who slurp it up have their reasons (racism, fear, jealousy), but even some of them, at their core, know why they go back - it feeds something they NEED, because the world out there is scary. "Gimme that nipple, mommy! I don't care that the milk is poison..."

    Faux is a political tool, started not by a newsman, but by Roger Ailes, a Right political operative. And dammit, he did his job well, creating a "media" source that's helped do exactly as intended, organize and agitate the angry sheep that were just waiting for their savior, who turned out to be a painted narcissist. And why not? djt's everything they want to be. Able to be a child without consequence, bang fairly attractive (if hollow) women, and have some money. Sure, it's all been scammed, but who cares? The sheep don't.

    Fox News - Media Bias/Fact Check

    Real news - The Times, Guardian, WSJ, WaPo, Le Monde (English edition is limited but I can't read French), etc. Political bias? Sure, but tertiary to their main goal - delivering news. Not like Faux, which is for delivering votes.

    Every fucking time you try to slide one of your agit points in (all news bad! US Military drops chemtrails on orphanages!), I'll be happy to shoot it down, just as I do the crap that comes from the keyboards of the Right-tards.

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  22. #2378
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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    Bit hard for them to have done that and say they did - you would have gotten an extra month of warning time.

    Problem is, you did NOTHING with the warning time you did get, so I really doubt it would have made any difference.

    You guys have screwed the pooch big-time on this. Your leadership took it all far too casually for too long, now you're going to pay for it.

    Lots of our cases have come from cruise ship passengers and others returning from overseas. Community level transmission hasn't been huge so far. That's the point of restricting peoples' movement.

    PDW
    We have several vaccine candidates in Phase 1 trials,

    If you are getting 300 new cases a day, that's community spreading. It seems to be at relatively low levels, but this virus looks like that, and then it suddenly jumps up and gets you.

    How is Australia's testing going? Anyone can get a test?

    What do you do with mild positives? Self-quarantine or institutionalize?

    Your press shouldn't be calling hydroxychloroquine a "miracle drug", that leads people to unrealistic expectations.

    Coronavirus: Australia to get virus ‘miracle drug’, touted by Donald Trump

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    We have no stop, I worry if we do flatten the curve there is the same number under that curve. The graphs being shown all look nicer but do the calculus.
    It will just come slower and be easier to accept.
    Slowing is great in a hope for something we do not have now.
    Bob
    Well, I hope this isn't correct. The idea of a true "stop" is out of reach at the moment, but if we can get a firebreak in place (isolation to prevent contagion), then with diligence we can pull a Singapore and reduce the damage. Along with that, slowing the rate of contagion will give time for PPE and vent machine production, and allow the doctors and nurses time to rest (friggin' heroes).

    You might be right about having to accept this as an ongoing thing, it depends on how lucky we get with research and public cooperation. Research I have some faith in; PC will be harder, especially from the young.

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    Bunch of whiny lefty mean teen-age girls.

    You’ll self identify when you respond to this post with more hand wringing and orange man bad conspiracy bullshit.


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