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  1. #2581
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Thought I'd try to avoid the 'alarmist' label. Most likely twice the numbers I figured ... but there's some entertaining stuff showing up in those numbers. Remember all the sneering at the Canadian health care system ? Death panels ? We'll show them death panels.

    Trump's very own Nicopolis ....
    This reference I don't get - did you mean "Necropolis"?

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    Quote Originally Posted by digger doug View Post
    I think cancer patients would take those odds.
    right but just like the virus does the cure also punish the weak[IOW kill 50 percent of cancer patients]

    remember I asked a question, I am not trying to make a statement

    I mean, if the worst thing that happens is it is not effective, or .00000001 percent of the people injected turn purple, well, color me purple, you know

  3. #2583
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    Coke: "Coke rocks, Pepsi sucks!"

    Pepsi: "Fuck you, you faggot Coke-drinker!"

    Just summarized the last 1000 posts in about 10 words.
    I suppose so, if one had no concept of the idea of objective fact or reality. But to a disengaged (un)observer, I could see your viewpoint.

  4. #2584
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    Well, if 3% were lost to side effects of any vaccine, it might change the distribution.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtndew View Post
    You should stop watching CNN because that has been proven to be false.
    You should stop posting lies, because, well, they're lies: Did Trump Administration Fire the US Pandemic Response Team?

  6. Likes Greg White liked this post
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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Your kind of missing my point, the state curves would create the national curve, so each state curve is going to be a sine wave[more or less] rise and fall, displaced in time, and of varying heights, which since, say New York would rise and fall earlier than Florida, the two combined would look long and flat, think of an optimized three way speaker response curve, with each driver contributing to an overall 'flat' curve, if that makes any sense to you.
    I didn't miss your point, epi curves aren't created that way. It's not a cumulative set of State curves that make up the national curve. It's just the total numbers.

    Every epi curve you create, you specify the time period on the X axis and the cases count on the Y axis. That's it.

    If every State curve was drawn, with the time frame to include the full extent of the virus in each one, and then you overlayed them all together, the curve would be longer and flatter than the national curve due the the time differences of each individual peak. You would see the interference pattern you are talking about.

    That could be true- but it does not affect the national curve. It will always be the totals over time, nothing else.

  8. #2587
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Now that's going to put a dent in the computer models. 0-)

    Credit where due! Isn't free market enterprise just the greatest!

    Let us all hope it works well for everyone!
    You mean isn't a broadly distributed, well funded, and staffed by competent researchers Center of Public Learning just the greatest?

    Yes, that's what you meant.

  9. #2588
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    The flu is a serious public health issue, but flu cases get spread out pretty evenly, because we are pretty good at fighting flu bugs. The health care system is adapted to it.

    The flu that we vaccinate against today is the direct descendant of the 1968 Hong Kong Flu. That pandemic killed a million people worldwide. In the years since, it has killed many more times the number.

    This Wuhan Coronavirus isn't comparable- we don't have experience fighting it, and left to itself it would overwhelm the system. Just look at Europe right now. Even in the worst flu seasons, we do not build temporary field hospitals in every major metro area.

    I can't think of a time ever, when otherwise healthy health care workers were dying of the flu. Maybe it happened in 1968- I was too young to know.

    Upshot imo, this bug gets compared to the flu too much. It's not a flu- it's a respiratory disease, and one we know very little about other than it spreads like a wildfire.
    Credit where it's due - this is a good post.

    There's a reason I haven't blocked you, while some of your cohort have proven themselves to be neutron stars twixt their ears.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    You should stop posting lies, because, well, they're lies: Did Trump Administration Fire the US Pandemic Response Team?
    And in the fine print...
    Updated to clarify that cuts to programs intended to fight epidemics globally did not take place.

    Updated to clarify that the 2018 reductions in CDC efforts referenced were a result of the anticipated depletion of previously allotted funding, not a direct cut by the Trump administration.
    Still not updated- the directorate in the NSC was eliminated as part of the NSC reorganization, and the mission was moved to a new directorate that included biodefense.

    Some people left, some stayed. The mission was never eliminated.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Well, if 3% were lost to side effects of any vaccine, it might change the distribution.
    0.3% mortality for vaccination would be great for elderly people that now die with 30% likelihood to Covid-19.
    On the other hand if the 0.3% mortality happens to stack on younger people and 0.3% of US population under 50 years die because of mass vaccinations its not that great solution.

    Both side effects and vaccination efficiency need to be verified and it takes several rounds of human testing and surveillance.
    Test the vaccine on 1000 people without side effects over a half year and move to mass vaccinations?
    Oops, vaccination happens to cause 0.5% mortality that didn't show on tests as 0 or 5 out of 1000 is statistically still random noise.
    Oops2, vaccination is teratogenic to fetus developement and 10% of the kids born after vaccination have 4 arms.
    Oops3, Umbrella Corporation (Chinese) fingered the vaccine and everyone is turning to a zombie

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post

    Some people left, some stayed. The mission was never eliminated.
    Depreciated. Always a wise thing to do, from the gifter of tax breaks to billionaires and MegaCorps.

    Tell me, why would the smartest man in the world decide that was a better way to spend money, rather than reviewing the reports he was given upon taking office and saying: "Oh, this could interrupt my Whopper supply!", and ramping it up?

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    how about that
    "we only got a few cases and soon it will be down to 0"
    thing

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    Quote Originally Posted by wippin' boy View Post
    how about that
    "we only got a few cases and soon it will be down to 0"
    thing
    Didn't you know that "few" is defined as "more than two, less than infinite"? Update your dictionary, dude!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Some people left, some stayed. The mission was never eliminated.
    The people who did those jobs were in fact eliminated. They were not replaced.

    5 People are in your department at work

    you have to ship 1000 parts a day

    4 of those people are eliminated

    you have to ship those 1000 parts a day

    so yeah, the mission was never eliminated, but the ability to effectively carry out that mission was eliminated

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Well, if 3% were lost to side effects of any vaccine, it might change the distribution.
    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    0.3% mortality for vaccination would be great for elderly people that now die with 30% likelihood to Covid-19.
    On the other hand if the 0.3% mortality happens to stack on younger people and 0.3% of US population under 50 years die because of mass vaccinations its not that great solution.
    Do you have poor eyesight or does your brain just re-adjust numbers to suit your beliefs?

    He said THREE percent, not POINT THREE percent. By reducing the number he suggested by a factor of ten you change the entire meaning.

    And I assume that three percent severe adverse affects would be spread over all age groups although not necessarily uniformly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    ...Tell me, why would the smartest man in the world decide that was a better way to spend money, rather than reviewing the reports he was given upon taking office and saying: "Oh, this could interrupt my Whopper supply!", and ramping it up?
    Why would every President before him decide there were other issues that had higher priority?

    Do you think Trump is the only President that ever saw those reports?

    The Congress sets the spending, the President makes requests. White House budget requests are never the budget that passes the the Congress, current administration no different than any other.

    The Congress can over-rule the President even if he vetoes an appropriation bill. If they wanted to fund pandemic preparedness, they could do that anytime, simply by writing it into the HHS appropriation.

    They haven't done that, so the infrastructure that we have is the infrastructure we get to work with. It was completely inadequate to a real pandemic- that failure does not lie with DJT.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    You mean isn't a broadly distributed, well funded, and staffed by competent researchers Center of Public Learning just the greatest?

    Yes, that's what you meant.
    Do you mean that if effective, The vaccine will be free to all? After all, we paid for it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post

    They haven't done that, so the infrastructure that we have is the infrastructure we get to work with. It was completely inadequate to a real pandemic- that failure does not lie with DJT.

    So let us be clear, your statement is that even though every other failing is the fault of every other previous president, trump, who actually eliminated the positions related to this, including one in China, nothing is trumpskis fault. Everything is alwasy someone else's fault. Obama failed on h1N1 but when teh steps he took to make the situation better were reversed, it is, what, still Obama's fault

    as usual, your obsequious fawning knows no depth

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Do you have poor eyesight or does your brain just re-adjust numbers to suit your beliefs?

    He said THREE percent, not POINT THREE percent. By reducing the number he suggested by a factor of ten you change the entire meaning.

    And I assume that three percent severe adverse affects would be spread over all age groups although not necessarily uniformly.
    Scott, we are just making things up here

    the particular numbers are of little consequence

    I was asking a question because it is a rare request to send out a vaccine with limited testing

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    As pressure for coronavirus vaccine mounts, scientists debate risks of accelerated testing - Reuters

    Studies have suggested that coronavirus vaccines carry the risk of what is known as vaccine enhancement, where instead of protecting against infection, the vaccine can actually make the disease worse when a vaccinated person is infected with the virus. The mechanism that causes that risk is not fully understood and is one of the stumbling blocks that has prevented the successful development of a coronavirus vaccine.

    Normally, researchers would take months to test for the possibility of vaccine enhancement in animals. Given the urgency to stem the spread of the new coronavirus, some drugmakers are moving straight into small-scale human tests, without waiting for the completion of such animal tests.

    “I understand the importance of accelerating timelines for vaccines in general, but from everything I know, this is not the vaccine to be doing it with,” Dr Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told Reuters.

    Hotez worked on development of a vaccine for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), the coronavirus behind a major 2003 outbreak, and found that some vaccinated animals developed more severe disease compared with unvaccinated animals when they were exposed to the virus.


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