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  1. #2821
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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    I wonder if it has something to do with current levels of hospitalization. California,Washington got ahead of it. Michigan is a bit of a mess now.

    I don't think California has a huge excess of beds.
    California reacted more quickly, especially the Bay Area. A few days made a huge difference.

    1280x0.jpg

    Stay-at-home orders issued
    Bay Area March 16
    California March 19
    New York March 20

    If nothing else, this hodge-podge approach to contol measures is providing some significant data for future epidemics.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Everywhere I look at the State data, I see hospitalizations in the mid-teens percentage of total cases.

    We like to think we got ahead of it, but I'm not all that certain. This bug is full of surprises.

    Health care is a big thing here though- lots of medical manufacturing, big hospital systems that get large federal subsidies. A pretty well developed system overall.

    I also think there is a built-in "shortage" in the model. The "available beds" number is "total beds" minus the average historical use. But our health care system is not operating at historical averages- all elective and non-essential procedures are on hold. So that frees up a lot of resources for CV that the model is not accounting for.

    Example New York. Cuomo has said they have 53,000 beds. Model says they only have 13,000 available. If everything else is on hold, there should be more than 13K beds available?

    Yesterday you were talking about the way States curves will interact, the models project each State's peak. 4/11 for Washington, 5/21 for Missouri. I think we can expect to be holed up for a while...
    Hmmm, perhaps CA has more 'elective' beds[no boob job for you bunny]

    I don't know about many procedures, but they kick you out in 2 days for a new hip, 3 days for a c section. It is possible that fewer of the beds are as flexible as you are thinking. Think of how seldom you hit a bed at all these days.
    I imagine they are turning pre op and post op 'rooms'[[what do they call that cubby you wake up in after getting the 'you're 50 now' probing] to covid rooms.

    YEah, that is what I was getting at, the overlapping curves that look like a long flat curve, and then I am worried about 'ringing' where when Texas or OK blooms and the zombie horde heads to states that were starting to drop


    I mean, you don't know how much I wish Scott was right............

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrWhoopee View Post
    California reacted more quickly, especially the Bay Area. A few days made a huge difference.

    1280x0.jpg

    Stay-at-home orders issued
    Bay Area March 16
    California March 19
    New York March 20

    If nothing else, this hodge-podge approach to contol measures is providing some significant data for future epidemics.
    New York has also more public transport users than anywhere else in US. Can't imagine more efficient way to spread the virus than fully packed metros.

  4. Likes MrWhoopee, CalG liked this post
  5. #2824
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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    I mean, you don't know how much I wish Scott was right............
    Not about whom is "right".

    What we do - ALL of us - is as many positive steps and as few negative ones as we are able to, each in our own environment.

    Stay home. Vent yer anger online if vent you must.

    Not a BAD thing if it takes the load off your family. Or even yer cat or dog.

    Prolly safe enough to pick up a hammer and go fuck-up a chronically unfaithful pickup truck.

    I mean.. you weren't meant to be GOING anywhere, and there wasn't likely to be anything to HAUL if yah did do.

    So the timing is right.

    Besides.. yah can always blame it on Trump, adding fucker-upper of old Fords/GMC's/Dodges to his roster of sins? "Free pass" on jappers. They ship fucker-uppered outta the factory, rust-seeds already planted to destroy the evidence.

    Poor Bastard is going to need a tombstone the size of Texas just to git the list of sins carved onto it.. even if they use both sides and the edges?

    Or maybe not...


  6. #2825
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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    competing for nosiest asshole on PM.
    Ha. You. Tweny bucks bet, on you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    108 hospitalized
    72 in ICU (have emergency capacity for maybe 500-700 extra patients and that includes already veterinarians ventilators)
    20 dead total
    Is that right? 70% or your hospitalized are ICU?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    New York has also more public transport users than anywhere else in US. Can't imagine more efficient way to spread the virus than fully packed metros.
    That's true, something I mentioned a while back. People in NYC move around by subway or taxi, both good spreaders.

    There are mass transit systems in every major metro, but I don't think they get as much use as NYC's subway. Most people like their cars.

    Rail is very popular in Europe, same problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Is that right? 70% or your hospitalized are ICU?
    Sorry, I was unclear: 180 total hospitalized, 108 in non-intensive care(what you would call it?) and 72 in ICU.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    Ha. You. Tweny bucks bet, on you.
    Nosiest or Noisiest?


    I'll answer my own question.

    Yes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    Ha. You. Tweny bucks bet, on you.
    Catch up in the back. Nobody "bets" on established historical FACT!

    Second place is still open. You seem to be ahead of many. Still have Gordito to beat.

    Go for it.

  14. #2831
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeachMePlease View Post
    Nosiest or Noisiest?


    I'll answer my own question.

    Yes.
    Noticed that didja?

    WTF did you EXPECT, rolling into the pub with the handle yer wearing?


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  16. #2832
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    That's true, something I mentioned a while back. People in NYC move around by subway or taxi, both good spreaders.

    There are mass transit systems in every major metro, but I don't think they get as much use as NYC's subway. Most people like their cars.

    Rail is very popular in Europe, same problem.
    About the only place denser than NYC is San Fran, both have transit. Sure subway is bad, but imagine the spread potential of all those people walking past all those other people on the street. Once you get to a certain density, not sure there is a win

  17. #2833
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrWhoopee View Post
    California reacted more quickly, especially the Bay Area. A few days made a huge difference.

    1280x0.jpg

    Stay-at-home orders issued
    Bay Area March 16
    California March 19
    New York March 20

    If nothing else, this hodge-podge approach to contol measures is providing some significant data for future epidemics.
    Yup

    this is the thing about leadership

    Charlie Baker desperately needed cover and you could see it. I think it delayed his decisions. If the feds had their act together and gave advisories earlier, it would have made all the difference in many places. One of the southern governors out and said he would have done it if trump said so.

  18. #2834
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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    About the only place denser than NYC is San Fran, both have transit. Sure subway is bad, but imagine the spread potential of all those people walking past all those other people on the street. Once you get to a certain density, not sure there is a win
    Unless you have RELIED on one or more of these (Hong Kong, mostly, but not-only for me) you also miss the intense density and its long-duration of exposure as riders get to and from the actual railcars.

    Check the stats of the top several and remember they are huge, but hardly "alone", globally:

    The world’s top 10 busiest metros

    One STATION, - a "complex" of interconnected ones, actually, Shinjuku, "BTDTGTTS" averages 3.5 million passengers per DAY.

    DAY. Not year. "Station" not whole network.

    If Japan can get through this virus' challenge?

    We ALL can.

  19. #2835
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Show the whole story. That chart in the article you linked to showed Real GDP Percent Change.

    Attachment 283745

    The chart of nominal GDP vs Real GDP shows a different story. Note especially the slope of BOTH lines between 2017 and 2018. Nothing in the four year period that represents Obama's 2nd term shows anything even remotely that steep. Numbers and charts look like magic when you only show one bit. The first chart makes the Trump economy look awful. The second shows that the economy took off like a fighter jet 2017-2018.

    Attachment 283749

    Source: Nominal GDP: Definition, Formula, Comparison to Real

    "I am sure you thought there was a point there"

    The point was to get one of the fish to bite so I could show the chart of Nominal GDP vs Real GDP based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Without that nibble on the bait most would just scroll past the post.
    I'm guessing you converted to the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez school of new economics? Where it doesn't matter if we just give stuff away and go into debt?

    The data you've posted above (good stuff) is actually useful to understand what we've been doing. And it would be useful for every working person and small business owner to better understand it, IMO.

    Here's an even longer view of GDP growth since 1900 (below). What it shows is a strong growth line from 1900 to the present. With a few blips. Good news about the Spanish Flu - a bit of history - is that despite three waves and eventual lockdowns the economy shortly returned.

    It also shows the devastation of the Great Depression.

    And then it shows the Great Recession and our recovery since. Note first that we've been on another straight line of return to growth through both the Obama and Trump years, but at a somewhat lower growth rate, even through the Trump years. This is pretty much true for all the developed world and why not as steep a growth rate subject for maybe another thread (infinite growth at 3% or so a year is a physical impossibility). We'll get to your look at the "nominal" rather than "real" growth rate in a bit

    One reason we got things like the DJIA up around 29,000 and created lots of service and other jobs, is because we kept inflating the economy for several years beyond the "normal" 10 year boom then bust. Keep blowing borrowed "air" into a ballooning economy and it will surely get larger the longer you do it, until something goes bust.

    What the Obama administration did (and what we're now doing to an even larger extent with pandemic funding) is borrow trillions and put them into the economy. Some of that we managed to pay off; though many investments were deferred. This wasn't just lower interest rates to stimulate real productivity growth (the lower GDP line, with 30% or so of it still BS in my opinion for the financial etc. sector).

    Think of it this way. If we have a 20 trillion economy that's flat, if we borrow $1 trillion (from our kids, China, Saudi Arabia, whatever) and throw it into the economy we've just added what seems like 5% (1 of 20) growth. It's not entirely efficient, since we're only really getting 2-3% real growth, somewhat higher nominal GDP growth line that Scott points to as a Trump achievement.

    The way the current administration kept the good times rolling was fourfold:

    1) Borrow about $1 trillion a year and use it for defense, social security checks, etc. etc. That's "5%" potential growth, but like a credit card it eventually needs paying back.

    2) Do a one-time repatriation of overseas profits, near another $1 trillion, that mostly went into stock buybacks so the companies could pump up stock prices and executive bonuses. Stock buybacks don't add real productive capacity.

    3) Offload direct costs to citizens. Reading the fine print in the link above about "nominal growth" note that it doesn't account for external costs. Here's the quote from your link explaining "nominal GDP": "Nominal GDP does not include the full cost of production. It neglects the external costs like air and water pollution, nuclear waste, and deforestation. These costs are created by production but are borne by society at large."

    4) Keep interest rates artificially low to juice the economy. With the side effect, as we've just seen, of making interest rate reductions ineffective when the next bust comes.

    I'm not sure anyone has added up the external costs of a fuck-everything-but-the-Dow policy, but it includes loss of trust, less reliance on the dollar, disrupted supply chains, failure to repair infrastructure, roll backs of environmental protections, greater nuke and terrorist risk, failure to hedge climate risk, and failure to prepare or manage the present pandemic. Just our criminally inept response to the pandemic already has about $4 trillion of further debt planned. IMO these "hidden costs" are at least as large as the $5 trillion in borrowed stimulus over the past three years, given we're about to spend $4 trillion or more on a pandemic we could and should have endured at half the cost (with steps outlined earlier).

    All of this is, of course, isn't sustainable. It had to crash sometime. The present administration was just hoping not until after, say, 2021.

    Which brings us to the many small business owners and others who have clearly seen the good times since 2008, even further inflated since 2016, and think that a continuation of these policies is just what we need. And, indeed, some of the "new economics" types like A.O.C. might agree.

    Personally, I don't see it that way. My take is that these (soon to be about $9 trillion of borrowed money spent over 4 years) come at a cost. Here's what (IMO) anyone wanting a continuation, especially in relatively good times, should realize is coming.

    - Slower future growth, especially for businesses as consumer debt rises
    - Environmental/infrastructure/institutional/climate degradation - rising to bankrupting costs in the future
    - Unsustainable debt for future administrations if we try to pay it off
    - Individiual assets like a home, business, or retirement funds savaged if we go the quantitative easing way

    It's easy for governments to think the next administration or generation can pay the debts. But at some point they become unsustainable. At least in my opinion. Someone like Trump, A.O.C, and many cheerleading here might agree we can be forever prosperous on borrowed money. My opinion - at some point we won't be able to keep borrowing. At that point our economy better be real value-adding stuff than Amercian Express and Visa skimming a bit of money off the top, oil companies kissing up to Saudi Arabia while we see trillions of climate-related damage each year, Walmart selling cheap imports, Morgan Stanley and others managing our money, and the nation's six largest "healthcare" providers still asking us to spend 2x other countries to keep their stock prices up.

    A now-circulating joke to follow, which explains it all much more directly.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails gdp-growth.jpg  

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  21. #2836
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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    Sorry, I was unclear: 180 total hospitalized, 108 in non-intensive care(what you would call it?) and 72 in ICU.
    Okay, get it now. We just include ICU in the hospitalized number. So 72 of 180 is 40%, we're running about 25%.

    That could be partly influenced by the demographics- Finland 21% of the population is over 65, USA 16%.

  22. #2837
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    Here's the promised joke, now circulating:

    Sometime this year, we taxpayers will likely receive another economic stimulus.

    It is indeed a very exciting program, and I’ll explain it by using a Q&A format:

    Q: What is an Economic Stimulus?

    A: It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.


    Q: Where will the government get this money?


    A: From taxpayers.


    Q: Is the government simply giving me back my own money, then?


    A: No, only a smidgen of it. (e.g. the 2-3% growth on 5% of GDP borrowed noted above)


    Q: What is the purpose of this payment?

    A: The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a high definition television set, a new iPad, or a new SUV, thus stimulating the economy.


    Q: Isn’t that stimulating the economy of China?

    A: Shut up.


    Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the U. S. Economy with your stimulus check. Use it wisely:

    * If you spend the stimulus money at Walmart the money will go to China or Sri Lanka. (note Walmart part of the DJIA 30)

    * if you spend it on gasoline, it money will go to the Arabs.

    * if you purchase a computer, it goes to India, Taiwan or China.

    * if you purchase fruits and vegetables, it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala.

    * if you buy an efficient car, it will go to Japan or Korea.

    * if you purchase useless stuff, it goes to Taiwan.

    * if you pay your credit card off, or buy stock, it will go to management bonuses and they will hide it offshore.

    Instead, keep the money in America by:

    (1) Spending it at a yard sale, or (2) Going to a ballgame, or (3) Spending it on prostitutes, or (4) Beer, or (5) Tattoos

    (These are the only American businesses still operating in the U.S.)

    CONCLUSION: Go to a ballgame with a tattooed prostitute that you met at a yard sale and drink beer all day.

    No need to thank the orginator of this he was just glad he could be of help.


    What far too many don't realize is that we've been spending even greater borrowed sums to prop up our economy and especially the Dow over the past several years. At least, that's my take.

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  24. #2838
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    Oh my, haven't laughed that hard in weeks

  25. #2839
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    ,
    CONCLUSION: Go to a ballgame with a tattooed prostitute that you met at a yard sale and drink beer all day.
    Sounds like fun but they canceled the ballgames,. Hard to even get a decent pool match.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Oh my, haven't laughed that hard in weeks
    Laugh? You evil sadistic bastard!

    You did realize it was TRUE did you not?

    "Cry" wouldn't FIX anything, but would at least be more considerate of your fellow victims.

    Just "fake that" willyah?



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