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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    If you don't have a heart, you can look up 'Alan Turing'.
    Mm that explains a lot. Thanks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Then your graph is stupid (not you, the graph) because NYC has one mayor while the bay area has dozens, all taking their own path.

    That's the trouble with this stuff, you have to look at everything critically. You can't compare an area that is part suburb, part rural, part agricultural, part-city, with a dozen different governments to one that is JUST a city.

    But I'll still stick with SF is smarter and nicer than NYC

    These comparisons are tricky, need to be sure it's apples to apples or the comparison is pointless.
    Quite the contrary, all 7 counties coordinated (imagine that!) and instituted stay-at-home orders on the same day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Deaths could be underestimated.....
    Sure, they could be, but they aren't. Total deaths, both national and State-by-State are tracking within the margin of error. It's easy to compare the total and daily deaths against the model.

    So if they are getting the deaths correct, it most likely means they have the rate of spread correct- at least in the short term.

    It's the just hospitalization rate that seems to be so far off.

    I won't call it a "hoax"- but when the prediction is off by 3 times the actual number, that part of the model is deeply flawed, imo.

    gotta work, I'll check in later...

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrWhoopee View Post
    Quite the contrary, all 7 counties coordinated (imagine that!) and instituted stay-at-home orders on the same day.
    You gotta be kidding ! Berkeley, and Richmond, and Daly City, and Walnut Creek, and Mill Valley and San Francisco all agreed on something ?

    Hang on, I gotta go get my pearls, I feel faint.

    (It's still geographically quite different tho, not like a single big city at all, so I'll be stubborn and say the compariso isn't apples-apples.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by SAG 180 View Post
    One interesting statistic I see is that China has 21 million less mobile phone numbers than a few months ago. It's pretty much mandatory that Chinese citizens have a mobile phone to access most government services and people are required to have one. This was noticed after a woman in China commented on social media about the piles of mobile phones on the floor in crematoriums. Even if only 1 percent is due to Covid deaths that amounts to 210 000 people or if China's figure of 5% mortality is used that's one million deaths.

    In China, 21 Million Dead Mobile Phone Numbers May Indicate a Holocaust - Vision Times

    This is very interesting so I am going to bump it back into view


    Vision Times is a borderless, largely volunteer community of writers, analysts, online media experts, and translators from around the world.

    Bump

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    (It's still geographically quite different tho, not like a single big city at all, so I'll be stubborn and say the compariso isn't apples-apples.)
    Quite true, but I would offer that once stay-at-home orders are in place (and presumably followed), population distribution and density become much less relevant.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    A lot of SIM cards are prepaid. I don't have a bunch of friends who are migrant workers but from what I see, they are big users of that system. When all the China Mobile stores were closed, you couldn't add money. So they turned off automatically.

    There's something like 80 million migrant workers, so that alone would cover a whole bunch of turned-off phones. They weren't turned off on purpose, they just ran out of money.
    The 21 million lines lost is an interesting stat, but we will never be able to see behind that number, how many of them are belt-tightening, normal expiration, and deaths. The more interesting info is that crematories were running in Wuhan 24/7. the output of those ash factories widely outpaces the number of dead reported. What were they cremating? Dead market supplies?

    dee
    ;-D
    Last edited by dcsipo; 04-04-2020 at 03:58 PM.

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    Wow, I just had a terrible thought about china. So terrible that I won’t even mention it.


    EmanuelGoldstein ;[There's something like 80 million migrant workers,] Where do the migrant workers come from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    Wow, I just had a terrible thought about china. So terrible that I won’t even mention it.
    Do tell.
    At this point we all reserve judgment.
    If nothing else you can provide an insight into another’s thoughts as we all go through this.

    Edit-
    The worse we will do is cover our mouth with our hands as we snicker politely.
    Being publicly derided is cathartic eh.
    Knocks us down a peg...

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    Worth your time:

    YouTube

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    EmanuelGoldstein ;[There's something like 80 million migrant workers,] Where do the migrant workers come from?
    Countryside villages. There's no cash in the villages, so they go to the cities to make money, which they send home. Or save up to go back and start some little business. Or they are young and want some excitement. Not that much to do in a village. Us old farts would like it but not kids.

    I could happily live on Lijiang, catch one or two fish a day, grow some vegetables, look at the water ... but that's for old people. Do an image search, buck, li jiang river ... you'd probably like it too.

    Quote Originally Posted by dcsipo
    The more interesting info is that crematories were running in Wuhan 24/7. the output of those ash factories widely outpaces the number of dead reported. What were they creating? Dead market supplies?
    Were you there ? I don't believe a word out of those bullshit sites, because I have been places and seen things then read the crap they publish about what I saw with these two eyes. It never matches.

    If the official numbers were wildly off the general public of China would be screaming bloody murder. Everyone here has relatives and friends, it is the gossip center of the world, you could never keep something like that quiet. The word of the initial problem spread long before it made the news. I heard about it eavesdropping on gossip on the subway.

    Kind of an odd aside, I don't personally know anyone who died in China but a friend works for an Italian startup - their boss lost his mom and dad and family doctor, all three. Anecdotal, but it does not contradict the official writings.

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    QT:[ you'd probably like it too.] looks like a very nice place..

    Li River, Li River Cruise Guide from a Local Travel Expert

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    if someone dies due to CoVid...but were never tested to know and be included in the toll...

    if a tree falls in the forest...

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    As for the reduction in mobile users in China, 21 million out of a population of close to one and a half billion isn't that great a number. It's less than 2%.

    While some of the change could be people who died plus also some taken into custody for various reasons the likely explanation for the greater part of the number is overseas Chinese. In another country they would use one of that country's carriers and would have no need of a China carrier. Quite a few nations have large populations of Chinese and the aggregate may well be tens of millions.

    As for the pile of phones at a crematorium that would indicate thousands, not millions and in a nation that size I suspect fairly large numbers die each day of various causes, just like elsewhere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by iwananew10K View Post
    if someone dies due to CoVid...but were never tested to know and be included in the toll...

    if a tree falls in the forest...
    From what I've been hearing it's the other way round. The deaths attributed to COVID-19 include large numbers of "presumptive" cases along with a smaller number of laboratory confirmed cases.

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    QT:[ you'd probably like it too.] looks like a very nice place..
    They fish with cormorants, maybe you want to give that a try ? Cormorant gets a ring around its neck, big enough to be comfy and not hurt the bird, but when they catch a fish they can't swallow it past the ring, so the fisherman takes it, and sends the cormorant back for another

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    They fish with cormorants, maybe you want to give that a try ? Cormorant gets a ring around its neck, big enough to be comfy and not hurt the bird, but when they catch a fish they can't swallow it past the ring, so the fisherman takes it, and sends the cormorant back for another
    He's gotta give it a little morsel though, to reinforce the positive behavior of bringing him the fish. At least, that's how I understand the practice. Always wanted to try it.

    Then again, after a visit to an owlery in Ireland, I started seriously looking for a group of Falconers in my area, until I realized I am much too irresponsible to be in charge of a bird of prey.

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  22. #2978
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    Michigan D*R (Department of natural resources) would not allow such fishing. Would also not allow a wild bird to be in capture.
    Still it looks fun...

    USA falconers may be able to have a purchased bird ..but not a wild one..I'n not sure about the rules there.

    * What about Masks in your area of China? are they ordered by the government..suggested by?..Does one buy their mask or are they provided. How many by percentage do you think people in your area wear a mask? Do you know any person who has contracted the corona virus..died form it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    They fish with cormorants, maybe you want to give that a try ? Cormorant gets a ring around its neck, big enough to be comfy and not hurt the bird, but when they catch a fish they can't swallow it past the ring, so the fisherman takes it, and sends the cormorant back for another
    That's bloody genius shit right there^^^^^^^^

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  26. #2980
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    From what I've been hearing it's the other way round. The deaths attributed to COVID-19 include large numbers of "presumptive" cases along with a smaller number of laboratory confirmed cases.
    'from what I have been hearing'

    Voices in your head again


    If you get to the hospital with flu like symptoms, they have to test you to know what to do with you, it would be foolish and a waste of resources to do otherwise

    On average, 7700 people die every day in this country


    Yesterday about 1 in 6 people who died, died of Covid

    Tomorrow it will be about 1 in 5

    It is supposed to peak over 2000 per day

    That will mean 1 in 4

    But it is just the flu, right?


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