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    Some deaths like walking out in front of a semi is a foolish mistake..Things like health and and this corona virus sneak up on a person..Still even with that precautions can help avoid danger.
    Nobody wants a loved one , or anybody to suffer from yet another cause of death. There the one death is a tragedy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    No Cal. Ignorance is lack of knowledge or information.
    .
    This is true. Too often and erroneously it's taken as an insult, but that's just vociferous ignorance of what ignorant means; . To paraphrase Will Rogers, we're all ignorant, just of different things.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    What I was looking for is total number of daily deaths of any cause. On average about 420 per day in NY state but even normal influenza season increases the number by 50% or so.
    Previous statistics on this are probably completely wrong now - nobody's driving, the rate of influenza transmission has probably gone below detectable limits.

    Only stats that are probably still valide are those for cancer deaths and heart disease deaths....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    More "I'll believe whatever works in my favor" from CalG. Don't get the idea in your head you can fly by flapping your arms, Cal - physics don't play like that.



    Which is why I have most of you guys on ignore. With no "essence" to be found, a full skip is the best strategy.
    The next level up from ignorance is not wanting to know. Congratulations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    Previous statistics on this are probably completely wrong now - nobody's driving, the rate of influenza transmission has probably gone below detectable limits.

    Only stats that are probably still valid are those for cancer deaths and heart disease deaths....
    Good point

    all sorts of stats will change

    I was not attempting to over torture statistics, but give a comparison.

    Like if you break one drill per thousand parts for the last 5 years, and you break 10 drills today, something has gone horribly wrong.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Good point

    all sorts of stats will change

    I was not attempting to over torture statistics, but give a comparison.

    Like if you break one drill per thousand parts for the last 5 years, and you break 10 drills today, something has gone horribly wrong.....
    What is worse? You enter the next day and find that your 10 good drills from yesterday are already broken.

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    We need a 'like' button, a 'dislike' button, and a '?' button

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    We need a 'like' button, a 'dislike' button, and a '?' button
    WTF? tenchars

    There.

    Been there all along.

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    Occams razor works here. The simple answer is right, majority of folks dying in NY right now are
    dying from this virus. Most other causes of death are trimmed down.

    Hardly anyone is dying in car crashes in NY right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    This is true. Too often and erroneously it's taken as an insult, but that's just vociferous ignorance of what ignorant means; . To paraphrase Will Rogers, we're all ignorant, just of different things.

    The word "ignorant" is an adjective that describes a person in the state of being unaware, or even cognitive dissonance and other cognitive relation, and can describe individuals who deliberately ignore or disregard important information or facts, or individuals who are unaware of important information or facts. Ignorance can appear in three different types: factual ignorance, object ignorance, and technical ignorance.

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    if ignorance is deliberate then just the word ignorance is not enough to define it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    It's almost funny that you believe that sick motherfucker. No, funny's not the word, more like pathological.
    The fact that Hannity reported that story doesn't erase the NY Health Department's report. The source document for the story is linked, you can read it for yourself and determine the veracity of the reporting.

    You dismiss it out of hand, just because you don't like where it came from. All we hear on these threads is how Trump "failed to respond", "ignored the warnings". Yet here is a warning to Coumo, from their own health dept. I guess that's somehow different? Shoe on the other foot?

    Exposing the hypocrisy? I call that turnabout is fair play.

    Here's a couple:

    Jan 26. "Morning Joe". MSNBC health expert on the coronavirus. "Not a threat, nothing Americans should be worrying about."

    Feb 4, Trump. SOTU, He was paying attention.
    Protecting Americans’ health also means fighting infectious diseases. We are coordinating with the Chinese government and working closely together on the coronavirus outbreak in China. My administration will take all necessary steps to safeguard our citizens from this threat.
    Pelosi tore up the speech.

    Feb 10. MSNBC. An Interview with Bill de Blasio. He described Coronavirus threat-
    “We want to encourage New Yorkers going out."

    “If you’re under 50 & you’re healthy, which is most NYers, there’s very little threat here. This disease, even if you were to get it, basically acts like a common cold or flu. And transmission is not that easy"
    February 19. Nevada Democratic Primary Debate, NBC. Do you know how many questions about the Coronavirus outbreak were asked in that debate? None. Zero. Completely off the radar. I haven't gone through the other transcripts, but I will bet the South Carolina debate was the same.

    February 24. Nancy Pelosi does a PR spot for San Francisco, NBC. In front of the camera, crowd of people packed around her.
    Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi toured San Francisco's Chinatown Monday to send a message. She said there's no reason tourists or locals should be staying away from the area because of coronavirus concerns.

    ...
    "That’s what we’re trying to do today is to say everything is fine here," Pelosi said. "Come because precautions have been taken. The city is on top of the situation."

    "Come to Chinatown, here we are — we're, again, careful, safe — and come join us."
    There are countless examples of the left's hypocrisy, it's all on tape FFS. This is just a tiny sample.

    That's not saying they were intentionally misrepresenting the threat- the information that EVERYONE was working from, was the information that came out of China.

    The hypocrisy is politicizing the virus now, and pretending that they weren't saying the same thing that Trump was saying at the time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    ...Divide 3 million by 365 to get an idea about how many Americans die on an "average day". Are you keeping track of the difference?
    Think of it like this Cal.

    2018 numbers- influenza and pneumonia, US death rate was 149 per million. In 2017 it was 143 per million. Italy and Spain are past 250 per million with CV, and not done with it yet. And that is with strict social distancing.

    We're at 8500 dead to CV, 26 per million. We are expecting 100K if we are lucky. So in 3 months, with everything shut down, CV could still kill nearly twice as many Americans as flu and pneumonia in an entire year.

    Italy lost something like 60 doctors in 2 months. That's not something you normally see with flu bugs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    China did a piss-poor job managing the coronvirus outbreak, yet they are already on the declining side of the infection curve. So for them, it's looking like a 3-to-4 month cycle at the longest.

    Corona has already been in the US for close to two months, so with the actions we have taken, there's a good chance we're already close to the peak....if you go by what's happened in China.

    Take a deep breath America, be diligent for a few more weeks, then let's get back to business.

    ToolCat

    The one huge issue remains testing, ToolCat. Our CDC had enforced a monopoly on testing. Normally, they're great. In this instance, they messed up and did not have a stockpile of valid tests ready, so its going to result in the deaths of 10s of thousands and trillions of dollars of losses.

    Another issue here is that apparently you can have this stuff and be anywhere on the spectrum from asymptomatic to dead. But if you're asymptomatic, you can still spread the stuff. And we had (and still have) denial about this. Some governors still won't put social distancing in place. And foreign countries are not immune from this head in the sand approach. There was a group of 70 U of Texas (from which I have a degree, alas) who went to Cabo on a chartered flight over spring break. 28 have now tested positive for SARS-Cov2. And, of course, you have (so called) Liberty University which allowed 1000 students to return to campus, and which is now seeing SARS-Cov2 cases in that population. And Mardi Gras and the Florida beaches were open for business. So you have witless 20 year old college students coming back and infecting their families. And, apparently witless governors and grandstanding presidents of so-called higher education showing really bad, wicked behavior.

    So we need to get the social distancing/ShelterInPlace completely in place so that you don't have little islands of infection/transmission. Willful idiocy can continue to spread this stuff, so that needs to be quashed. With that, if we can get testing up to snuff, so we can clear people who don't have the stuff, and identify and quarantine those that do, I think we get to the point your note describes.

    At some point, we get a vaccine, and (unless there's a significant "antiVaxxer" movement) we get enough people vaccinated to create herd immunity.

    I suspect that its more like a month or two or three, rather than a week or three, for the testing phase, and a couple of years for the vax phase. Hope I'm wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by iwananew10K View Post
    if ignorance is deliberate then just the word ignorance is not enough to define it.
    The root of ignorance is ignore. That might be a clue......

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    Probably the big difference between the number of "normal" deaths with that from the coronavirus is that by doing nothing or too little it'll spread very fast. If it really gets the chance I'd hate to think how many could die.

    The more that get infected the greater the consequences and cost. It'll be interesting, to say the least, at how some countries will be doing economically when it's over.

    There are still a couple of leaders (and I don't mean Trump) that think it's some kind of media stunt. The problem here is that the countries doing little will continue to be a threat to those that are doing what they can.

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    that is fine.
    was a simple statement made without attachment to any person or agenda.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Think of it like this Cal.

    2018 numbers- influenza and pneumonia, US death rate was 149 per million. In 2017 it was 143 per million. Italy and Spain are past 250 per million with CV, and not done with it yet. And that is with strict social distancing.

    We're at 8500 dead to CV, 26 per million. We are expecting 100K if we are lucky. So in 3 months, with everything shut down, CV could still kill nearly twice as many Americans as flu and pneumonia in an entire year.

    Italy lost something like 60 doctors in 2 months. That's not something you normally see with flu bugs.
    67000 persons in America died of drug overdose in 2018, that is down from 71000 the previous year.

    Curve flattening!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Probably the big difference between the number of "normal" deaths with that from the coronavirus is that by doing nothing or too little it'll spread very fast. If it really gets the chance I'd hate to think how many could die.

    The more that get infected the greater the consequences and cost. It'll be interesting, to say the least, at how some countries will be doing economically when it's over.

    There are still a couple of leaders (and I don't mean Trump) that think it's some kind of media stunt. The problem here is that the countries doing little will continue to be a threat to those that are doing what they can.
    Gordon. How can you say and project from "more", when no one has a clue how many cases actually are or were?
    Asymptomatic persons don't show up in the denominator.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bosleyjr View Post
    The one huge issue remains testing, ToolCat. Our CDC had enforced a monopoly on testing. Normally, they're great. In this instance, they messed up and did not have a stockpile of valid tests ready, so its going to result in the deaths of 10s of thousands and trillions of dollars of losses.

    Another issue here is that apparently you can have this stuff and be anywhere on the spectrum from asymptomatic to dead. But if you're asymptomatic, you can still spread the stuff. And we had (and still have) denial about this. Some governors still won't put social distancing in place. And foreign countries are not immune from this head in the sand approach. There was a group of 70 U of Texas (from which I have a degree, alas) who went to Cabo on a chartered flight over spring break. 28 have now tested positive for SARS-Cov2. And, of course, you have (so called) Liberty University which allowed 1000 students to return to campus, and which is now seeing SARS-Cov2 cases in that population. And Mardi Gras and the Florida beaches were open for business. So you have witless 20 year old college students coming back and infecting their families. And, apparently witless governors and grandstanding presidents of so-called higher education showing really bad, wicked behavior.

    So we need to get the social distancing/ShelterInPlace completely in place so that you don't have little islands of infection/transmission. Willful idiocy can continue to spread this stuff, so that needs to be quashed. With that, if we can get testing up to snuff, so we can clear people who don't have the stuff, and identify and quarantine those that do, I think we get to the point your note describes.

    At some point, we get a vaccine, and (unless there's a significant "antiVaxxer" movement) we get enough people vaccinated to create herd immunity.

    I suspect that its more like a month or two or three, rather than a week or three, for the testing phase, and a couple of years for the vax phase. Hope I'm wrong.

    Is there any IDEA about the length of time an asymptomatic person can be a carrier of the virus?

    I have not read of any information. Thinking on the lines of "So we need to get the social distancing/ShelterInPlace completely in place so that you don't have little islands of infection/transmission."

    You know, evidence as opposed to good intent.


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