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  1. #3121
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    Quote Originally Posted by neilho View Post
    Look it up. Ventec's design costs about $18K each, it's portable, the stationary ones run around $50K or so.



    Why speculate when you could read what the CEO of GM has to say?



    They wouldn't be the only ones in this scenario attempting manipulation of the media, would they? And they are risking a considerable amount of money going ahead without a PO. That's not something business people with MBA's do for fun.



    Not by dead people, and not by the general populace who can't get a test without a slip from Doctor and can't get the results for 24-48 hrs, while Trump and his buddies all get tested anytime they want and get the results back in 15 minutes. Maybe by Goldman Sachs. You wanna throw your lot in with that crew?

    It's pretty clear from looking at what S Korea did that tracking, testing and selective quarantining early = what we're doing late, without the social distancing measures and widepread business closures that are wrecking our economy.

    We done screwed up bigtime, obviously.
    Taxpayers Paid Millions to Design a Low-Cost Ventilator for a Pandemic. Instead, the Company Is Selling Versions of It Overseas. — ProPublica

    I’m not sure why there hasn’t been much reporting on this, maybe a few palms have been greased to turn a blind eye.

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  3. #3122
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Is there any IDEA about the length of time an asymptomatic person can be a carrier of the virus?
    Two weeks. Maybe a rare exception slightly longer.

    That's why we got three weeks at home.

    Bos, we're still subject to frequent temp checks. I read ages ago that an increased temperature was an early sign, even "pre-symptomatic" in cases. 'Asymptomatic' people would often go, "Oh yeah, now that you ask, I was feeling a little rough a couple days ago." Asymptomatic wasn't totally happy-go-lucky feeling great. It just wasn't 'I feel shitty' sick.

    Has this been the same experience elsewhere ? They rely on temp checks here a lot. Or use them as an indicator, at least.

    I haven't heard that you guys got your CAT scan skills up to snuff yet, either

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Gordon. How can you say and project from "more", when no one has a clue how many cases actually are or were?
    Asymptomatic persons don't show up in the denominator.
    I don't know who "no one" is where you are. I don't know about you but here we're getting close on hourly government and medical updates on the virus here.

    I was out shopping with my wife today and in every shop and store at the door is hand disinfectant (it gets used) and "safe distance" lines all over. So far everybody I see is acting with thought. Of course there are idiots but so far I haven't seen one.

    As far as me "projecting" goes then, apart from I believe China, where are the death numbers on the decline?

    I believe the information on numbers we are being told is correct. I've no idea if you can say the same about yours.

    2020 coronavirus pandemic in Denmark - Wikipedia

    https://www.thelocal.dk/

    Politicians here are working in close cooperation with doctors. And politicians are listening!

    BTW here I agree with EG. From "contact" until evident it's around 2 weeks. That's one of the things that makes it so dangerous.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I don't know who "no one" is where you are. I don't know about you but here we're getting close on hourly government and medical updates on the virus here.
    .
    This response suggests you didn't understand the point. What you are getting is data on the test results. Have they tested everybody or a random sampling of the country? Do you think people asymptomatic or with say symptoms of a mild cold are rushing to the hospital to get tested? A hospital is last place I'd want to be right now unless life was threatened. All the posted case numbers mean is that there are at least that many. There could easily be pick a number times that. There's 14,500 tested positive in Canada, how do you know the total number with the virus isn't really a million?

    None of which is an argument against its seriousness, the acceleration of the death count is enough for that. However it is imo an argument against constantly trotting out numbers without acknowledging or addressing this unknown.

    Likely, there is a some plausible statistical rational we haven't thought of. With all the smart educated people immersed in this, its seems a bit naive to think we're the only ones to have thought it. But it does further erode the credibility of so called leadership to not better explain things as they trot out more numbers

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Is there any IDEA about the length of time an asymptomatic person can be a carrier of the virus?

    I have not read of any information. Thinking on the lines of "So we need to get the social distancing/ShelterInPlace completely in place so that you don't have little islands of infection/transmission."

    You know, evidence as opposed to good intent.
    And he also said: "suspect that its more like a month or two or three, rather than a week or three, for the testing phase, and a couple of years for the vax phase. Hope I'm wrong."

    Two to three months of lockdown is GUARANTEED to totally financially destroy millions of people and small businesses. There is an old saying that goes "Either shit, or get off the pot" that exactly describes what must be done. If the government officials and those in charge of public health can't come up with a plan that releases people from captivity within the next couple of weeks I expect people will begin releasing themselves. Most Americans tend to be very orderly and generally abide by laws and rules but when you are faced with financial ruin and homelessness through no fault of your own once unacceptable alternatives become more thinkable.

    From what I've already seen very few cops want to face down mobs of angry citizens and any attempt to make them go back to their imprisonment by force will backfire, with severe repercussions for those in authority. If you search online for stories of people arrested for violating lockdown, there are a lot of titles that make it seem that is happening all over the country but if you read down far enough in the article the people are actually being arrested for trespass, disturbing the peace, outstanding traffic warrants and other "normal" offenses.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    67000 persons in America died of drug overdose in 2018, that is down from 71000 the previous year.

    Curve flattening!
    And we consider opiod deaths a serious problem yes?

    'uncontained' this disease has the possibility of multiples of that number

    the estimates range to double the amount of overdoses with the restrictions now in place

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I don't know who "no one" is where you are. I don't know about you but here we're getting close on hourly government and medical updates on the virus here.


    As far as me "projecting" goes then, apart from I believe China, where are the death numbers on the decline?

    BTW here I agree with EG. From "contact" until evident it's around 2 weeks. That's one of the things that makes it so dangerous.
    There is a proposition offered that persons, infected but going about with mild or no symptoms may or MIGHT be sponsors of "herd immunity", or something of the like. Such unknowns are why I push back from statistics that portend dire consequences and the "why don't THEY do something" expressions.

    From what HAS OCCURRED, i.e. not projections, MOST of the dire consequences projected by "the models" have not been realized.
    Cases, yes, mortality, not so much.

    Good for us!

    You ask for examples of declining stats, and say you believe China's reporting. Well, there you have one?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    67000 persons in America died of drug overdose in 2018, that is down from 71000 the previous year.

    Curve flattening!
    Just to test your math skills [again]

    183 per day die of overdoses

    1300 died yesterday of Covid

    5000 died between March 17 and April 1

    5000 more will have died by midnight tomorrow

    Is it your suggestion that we wait until the deaths surpass all other causes before we start to do something?

    What would you do then?

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    QT: [67000 persons in America died of drug overdose in 2018, that is down from 71000 the previous year.]

    I have good reason to suspect/say that a percentage of drug over dose is actually a murder in disguise.

    No, don't ask as I have nothing more to say on this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Two weeks. Maybe a rare exception slightly longer.

    That's why we got three weeks at home.

    Bos, we're still subject to frequent temp checks. I read ages ago that an increased temperature was an early sign, even "pre-symptomatic" in cases. 'Asymptomatic' people would often go, "Oh yeah, now that you ask, I was feeling a little rough a couple days ago." Asymptomatic wasn't totally happy-go-lucky feeling great. It just wasn't 'I feel shitty' sick.

    Has this been the same experience elsewhere ? They rely on temp checks here a lot. Or use them as an indicator, at least.

    I haven't heard that you guys got your CAT scan skills up to snuff yet, either
    Elevated body temperature is a symptom of infection.

    Perhaps your definition of asymptomatic and mine differ.

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    I don't see the applicability of drug overdose numbers to the current situation. One's a very poor choice, one's a contagious virus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I don't know who "no one" is where you are. I don't know about you but here we're getting close on hourly government and medical updates on the virus here.

    I was out shopping with my wife today and in every shop and store at the door is hand disinfectant (it gets used) and "safe distance" lines all over. So far everybody I see is acting with thought. Of course there are idiots but so far I haven't seen one.

    As far as me "projecting" goes then, apart from I believe China, where are the death numbers on the decline?

    I believe the information on numbers we are being told is correct. I've no idea if you can say the same about yours.

    2020 coronavirus pandemic in Denmark - Wikipedia

    https://www.thelocal.dk/

    Politicians here are working in close cooperation with doctors. And politicians are listening!

    BTW here I agree with EG. From "contact" until evident it's around 2 weeks. That's one of the things that makes it so dangerous.
    Gordon

    From this page,
    INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY It would seem that your region/ country has a significant mortality rate due to influenza and pneumonia . (Don't all countries? {-(
    Certainly those existing statistics will be folded into the Covid-19 numbers. Or do you expect the Covid-19 numbers to be separated out?

    Oh! And because you agree, isn't an objective or useful position. You may be fooled.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    I don't see the applicability of drug overdose numbers to the current situation. One's a very poor choice, one's a contagious virus.
    Only that it reflects on the TOTAL of life.

    drug use is very contagious. It is transmitted by evil persons. The young and the weak are especially vulnerable.
    What might be a worthy response? Isolation doesn't seem to be effective.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Just to test your math skills [again]


    Is it your suggestion that we wait until the deaths surpass all other causes before we start to do something?

    What would you do then?
    Why would you even think to "do nothing?" All or nothing is a fools way.
    But don't loose sight of life! the Wa Hoo virus isn't the only thing happening even if the media would want you to feelo that it is.

    A disaster in NYC is not a reason to shut in a Dakota wheat farmer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    There is a proposition offered that persons, infected but going about with mild or no symptoms may or MIGHT be sponsors of "herd immunity", or something of the like. Such unknowns are why I push back from statistics that portend dire consequences and the "why don't THEY do something" expressions.

    From what HAS OCCURRED, i.e. not projections, MOST of the dire consequences projected by "the models" have not been realized.
    Cases, yes, mortality, not so much.

    Good for us!

    You ask for examples of declining stats, and say you believe China's reporting. Well, there you have one?
    this is simply not true

    the models express a range, it is really hard to go from 1 case and tell what is going to happen 6 months out

    TOday the IHME model[dunno, but jancollc mentioned it so good as any]

    today for the 12th: 18900-30100 deaths
    today for the 19th: 27300-38700 deaths
    today for 5/3[about 8 weeks from death number one]36000-116000

    shall we see how they do?

    I could see doubt the day this thread was started, but it is really pretty silly to say this is a big nothing right now


    COVID-19 estimation updates | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

    link to the mortality projections from the last week+

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    You have to realize that the WHO is incredibly political. Taiwan, which handled this thing better than just about anyone, is not in the WHO because China insisted that they not be. When Bruce Aylward was asked about Taiwan's super-effective response compared to China's, he stopped talking and concluded the interview.

    The Japanese Vice PM's point is valid. And Aylward's glowing description of China's response should be viewed critically.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    . . .

    Two to three months of lockdown is GUARANTEED to totally financially destroy millions of people and small businesses. T. . .


    From what I've already seen very few cops want to face down mobs of angry citizens and any attempt to make them go back to their imprisonment by force will backfire, with severe repercussions for those in authority. . .
    The reason it is taking several more months for us to sort this out is precisely because so many, like yourself, were in denial and confirmation bias mode. It's just the flu, nothing to worry about, the Dow is more important, it will just go away in a day or two. Meanwhile we should exercise or God-given rights and go out and party in groups of 100.

    Scott, I'd suggest that instead of doubling down on "I've right, I'm right" - maybe recognize this was the wrong advice? Our failure to take this seriously will cost us double the lives, double the economic damage.

    Now you're urging us to consider the angry mobs of citizens soon to be tearing the country apart -- that's been the theme for the past couple weeks. Maybe that's what you've "already seen." The view from here is either people doing their best to self-isolate, or take precautions as essential workers, or find creative ways to keep their small business open, or - some - still somewhat oblivious to the whole thing given the very mixed messages still out there.

    I'd remind us all that the Spanish Flu was far more devastating, yet we managed to get the economy back on track within a year or so after the third recurrence; all without insurrection. We should be in a far better position to keep both the mortality and the economic carnage far below those times.

    My take is that if we fail to do so, it will be a reflection of our increased partisanship and some essentially urging on -- or at least justifying --the sort of angry mobs you're predicting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Why would you even think to "do nothing?" All or nothing is a fools way.
    But don't loose sight of life! the Wa Hoo virus isn't the only thing happening even if the media would want you to feelo that it is.

    A disaster in NYC is not a reason to shut in a Dakota wheat farmer.
    1] We are not, nor are we considering, doing 'all'

    2] while it is not business as usual, I think most farmers are functioning. Hard time seeing the virus spread by a guy riding a combine in the middle of 1000 acres

    3] you continue doubting the severity/reality of this outbreak


    4] from my friends in NY, a hearty 'screw you', and how do you suppose one stops it from becoming a problem in the Dakotas?

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Sometimes it works ... In fact, it always works, just sometimes what you get is not what you expected
    As my ex-wife (RIP) used to tell me "Be careful what you wish for, God has a WICKED sense of humor."

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Is there any IDEA about the length of time an asymptomatic person can be a carrier of the virus?

    I have not read of any information. Thinking on the lines of "So we need to get the social distancing/ShelterInPlace completely in place so that you don't have little islands of infection/transmission."

    You know, evidence as opposed to good intent.
    I was thinking of the standard 14 day quarantine period. Apparently, the prodromal period is about 5 days, and most patients shed most of the viral particles that the are going to shed in the next five days or so. See here.


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