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  1. #521
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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    How do you plan to survive the COVID epidemic then?
    Self Isolation and hope for the best. Going out as little as possible, no visitors. Bit of panic buying, four bars of " Cadbury's Old Jamaica " chocolate bars instead of my usual one !

    Regards Tyrone.

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  3. #522
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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    just an observation here. I was looking at the Corona Virus map and something struck me as odd. Russia, which takes up a major portion of the globe, only has one miniscule outbreak of 93 cases. That's it.
    Doesn't that seem a little fishy?
    Could drinking Vodka for breakfast ward off the virus?
    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Or maybe it’s a bio weapon and they have the vaccine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Re-bio weapon.
    I usually count on my audience to sus out when I am just tossing something out there for comic relief..


    I got the Joke, unfortunately, there is a real dark side to it. And it is clear the numbers from Russia are patently false. Did the virus decide to stop on the border with Poland?...

    Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

    dee
    ;-(

  4. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Oh absolutely. China is a bunch of liars, the US has the honest free press, unicorns dance on the green in front of the Liberty Bell, and this whole covid thing was just an overblown hype fraud created by them deceitful media-trampling commies.

    I will now sit back and watch.

    btw, Mc .... your shitty Canadian socialized health care is so far doing a great job with this. One of a few places that has. You should be happy you are not in the US right now.
    why all the angst and hyperbole? I've restricted my line to one point and you've confirmed it. That has zero to do with unicorns, the US press, how the US is handling it, Covid is a fraud or lie etc etc etc. Nor have I said or implied anything on those topics. insofar Covid goes, I've specifically said I do take it seriously, so wtf?

  5. #524
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    Worth reading and also applicable to other "emergency measures".

    Protecting Civil Liberties During a Public Health Crisis | Electronic Frontier Foundation

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    State of emergency declared in Ontario.

  7. #526
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terry Keeley View Post
    State of emergency declared in Ontario.

    yeah,. just reading through it, is there much material change? I mean they're not applying it to malls (with everything public being closed, that doesn't seem to fit imo) and pretty much everything else it dictates to close already is. Maybe just to make it official in case there's some hold outs?

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    Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    [Canada shuts its borders.]

    We just got back from fish camp Blind River Ontario. Ice was good with some slush layers and about 8 - 10" blue, fishing poor but we still had all we could eat, no problem crossing at the Canada or US border.
    Only problem there were no Indian girls knocking at the cabin…. there never are, Darn.
    ( Just our joke with a week and more with only the guys and 8 miles to the nearest road....)

    QT: [ That has zero to do with unicorns,] All the unicorns eaten...Seals next?

    Qt [Or maybe it’s a bio weapon and they have the vaccine.] or they don't and just want to thin the numbers.

    Market call $2500... another darn.

  9. #528
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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    [Canada shuts its borders.]

    We just got back from fish camp Blind River Ontario. Ice was good with some slush layers and about 8 - 10" blue, fishing poor but we still had all we could eat, no problem crossing at the Canada or US border.
    Only problem there were no Indian girls knocking at the cabin…. there never are, Darn.
    ( Just our joke with a week and more with only the guys and 8 miles to the nearest road....)

    .
    I see Americans are exempt.

    That was neighborly...
    Does seem to sort of blunt the moves effectiveness.

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  11. #529
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    Quote Originally Posted by janvanruth View Post
    at the moment the death rate in Italy is 44 % .
    yes forty four!
    44 % of all the cases that have been closed ended in death.
    You are either wrong, or an idiot. I say both.

    Reuters just reported that the number of cases in Italy rose to 31,506, from 27,980 on Monday, And Italy's death toll stands at
    2,503, up from 345. You can't just divide the deaths by the number of cases (you have use the number of deaths per cleared cases) but the current estimate of Italy's death rate is 6.6%. Higher than elsewhere, but this may be due to the number of aged people contracting the disease. Older people fare worse. In Korea, where they've posted very detailed metrics using closed cases, 50 year olds had a death rate of 9%, 60 year olds 20% (or thereabouts).

    So if you posted wrong information intentionally to get a rise out of people, you're an idiot. If you mindlessly posted information you saw in social media, your an idiot. In any case, posting stupid stuff when the consequences are death is unbelievably mean-spirited.

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    Many of you know that I write math models of disease for a living. This is no overreaction. We are looking at the front end of a tsunamai. When the wave crests, even if we do everything right over the next couple of months, our hospitals will be overwhelmed, people will be dying in their homes without care, and our morgues will be overwhelmed. (That's happening in Northern Italy right now, and what has happened in Hubei province in China).

    China's draconian methods seem to have slowed the progression and may keep it from spreading. We (in both the US and UK) have been so slow off the mark and unprepared its criminal.

    Many politicians have suggested that this is just mass hysteria and an over-reaction*. Some news channels have suggested the same. If you believe those politicians and media outlets, I would ask two things. First, please gather together with people that think likewise. Have a party. Swig out of the same bottle, puff off the same pipe or hookah. Don't cover your mouth when you cough at these parties. Don't bother washing your hands. After all, the whole thing is a media exaggeration! Second, if you do start to feel ill, buck up. Its not real, it's an over-reaction! Continue to fraternize with your friends.

    The second request is that after this you only come near people with the same belief system, and not come near me. Or my family. Or any healthcare worker. So that if you have a cough, a fever, and a headache that you not use the health care system. After all, those symptoms are a media hoax!

    To review
    1) Please do everything you can to propagate this virus to your friends and political allies and people that believe that the "deep state" is out to get them. This will demonstrate how much of a overreaction this is.
    2) When you and your friends have symptoms, laugh them off and don't use the healthcare system (why would you need to see a doctor for a hoax, after all?)

    Hopefully, these actions will cause there to be fewer idiotic voices out there. Darwin in action.

    *BTW, Donald Trump was originally in this group. Look at his latest news conferences and you hear a different story. The man's scared.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Maybe just to make it official in case there's some hold outs?
    I think that's why they did it. Saw reports of bars & restaurants still full of idiots in d/t T.O.

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    Someone pasted this link to a medical forum elsewhere, from the front line in Evergreen, 3/13. Lots of lingo but best first hand info I've yet seen:

    Jimmy Grierson - For my medical friends the following is... | Facebook

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  16. #533
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    The area under your curves seem distorted.
    All in favor of the flat and slow but in reality that ass end tail goes out a year.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by bosleyjr View Post
    You are either wrong, or an idiot. I say both.

    Reuters just reported that the number of cases in Italy rose to 31,506, from 27,980 on Monday, And Italy's death toll stands at
    2,503, up from 345. You can't just divide the deaths by the number of cases (you have use the number of deaths per cleared cases) but the current estimate of Italy's death rate is 6.6%. Higher than elsewhere, but this may be due to the number of aged people contracting the disease. Older people fare worse. In Korea, where they've posted very detailed metrics using closed cases, 50 year olds had a death rate of 9%, 60 year olds 20% (or thereabouts).

    So if you posted wrong information intentionally to get a rise out of people, you're an idiot. If you mindlessly posted information you saw in social media, your an idiot. In any case, posting stupid stuff when the consequences are death is unbelievably mean-spirited.
    if of all the cases of covid19 that have had an end, either way, 40 % are deaths you know things will have to change dramatically.

    if you got a job of 100 identical items to make on the lathe.
    and after having finished the first batch of 10, inspection tells you that 4 are out of spec.
    that is 40 %
    so what do you do?
    finish the rest and hope that those 4 will be all that are out of spec?
    or will you have a closer look at the way you go about turning the rest?

  18. #535
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    Quote Originally Posted by david n View Post
    Just ignore him...................anyone who admittedly defends a horrific communist regime that has murdered millions since it's inception has ZERO credibility with me................the crazies rant and rave about how horrid nationalism is...............why do they never get whipped up about China....................the Commies are only out for themselves. Any inkling of an olive branch or good will is pure state propaganda or economically beneficial to the State. If it benefited the Chinese gov't, they'd let the world burn.
    This is why no amount of gun crime will EVER justify the banning of civil ownership.

    100 Years of Communism—and 100 Million Dead - WSJ

  19. #536
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    This seems to be a good summary of the statistics


    Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium

    dee
    ;-D

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    A report in Science today estimates that 75% of transmission in China was from asymtomatic individuals. Keep your distance.

    Testing is still a disaster. While it isn’t very important at this point for tracing contacts in the community (too late for that) it is important for testing medical staff potentially exposed and patients to determine who need isolated, etc. Right now turn around time here is still more that 3 days, and the numbers of tests that can be done is small. We have been expecting Quest to come on line with greater capacity, but they won’t be processing for a few days yet, and will then be reserving only 30 test/day for our major medical center. FDA has finally given permission for our research labs to do our own testing. We were asked for availability of personnel, q-pcr machines, and reagents this morning. q-pcr is a very common technique in research labs, and this should provide a big boost in capacity IF reagents are available. I’m not confident that they are. In fact, there is already a shortage of the swabs an media used to collect the samples. Obviously, high volume random sampling of the community that would actually provide data on prevalence isn’t going to happen any time soon.

    I’m hearing that the problem with the original CDC test that didn’t work was in the design of the primers: they formed primer-diners. We design primers all the time research labs, and software has been used to routinely check for dimmer formation for at least 15 years. If this was indeed the problem, it is a very elementary error. CDC was initially saying that the problem was in manufacture, but are now acknowledging that design may have been an issue.

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  22. #538
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    .....

    So we are in the first wave.
    It’s worth considering there might be a second.
    Do you like being the doom and gloom guy?

  23. #539
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    Quote Originally Posted by bosleyjr View Post
    Many politicians have suggested that this is just mass hysteria and an over-reaction*. Some news channels have suggested the same. If you believe those politicians and media outlets, I would ask two things. First, please gather together with people that think likewise. Have a party. Swig out of the same bottle, puff off the same pipe or hookah. Don't cover your mouth when you cough at these parties. Don't bother washing your hands. After all, the whole thing is a media exaggeration! Second, if you do start to feel ill, buck up. Its not real, it's an over-reaction! Continue to fraternize with your friends.
    No problem there. This will happen automatically because while people that think like you hide in their houses, wipe everything 100 times a day with disinfectant, and otherwise act as if this is some apocalyptic Hollywood movie like Outbreak the people still out and about will be the people who think this is overblown.

    The rest of your post is sheer nonsense. Of course we practice hygiene, same as we do every cold and flu season. Your hysterical tirade shows how the fear has already infected your mind. Fear kills, and the level of fear that rises to panic kills very quickly. If you'd ever been in a truly nasty life-or-death situation you'd know that companions prone to panic are more dangerous than any enemy, disease, or natural disaster.

    This will of course be revisited after the "crisis" is over but I'm betting more members of your group will die of stress-related illness than members of my group die of disease. In the meantime I can't help but notice how courteous everyone seems to be who is not bunkered down.

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  25. #540
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcsipo View Post
    This seems to be a good summary of the statistics


    Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium

    dee
    ;-D
    And when you are done reading his script you can read some of his other scholarly work about Luke Skywalker. Bet he's bumming he can only wear his costume and light saber at home instead of out with the other kids who play dress-up.

    PS: I called it his script because the guy majored in storytelling and script writing.


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