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  1. #541
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    Quote Originally Posted by janvanruth View Post
    if of all the cases of covid19 that have had an end, either way, 40 % are deaths you know things will have to change dramatically.

    if you got a job of 100 identical items to make on the lathe.
    and after having finished the first batch of 10, inspection tells you that 4 are out of spec.
    that is 40 %
    so what do you do?
    finish the rest and hope that those 4 will be all that are out of spec?
    or will you have a closer look at the way you go about turning the rest?
    That’s just a straight up bad example.

    Unlike parts, people may be in or out of spec to start with. Many people had COVID19 and mistook it for the flu. Which means it never got reported. The same goes for deaths as well, but the number of untracked COVID19 infections far outnumbers untracked casualties.

    Here’s a dire outlook; its significant effect on folks with prior conditions is going to prove out that we’ll be unable to save certain people. Who gets to vet the cases of who has a better chance of living?

  2. #542
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    We had some machines that were supposed to ship between two of our plants in different European countries. That's been canned because there's no cross-border travel allowed. I was told it could be done only if the freight company switched drivers at each border or the machines switched trucks, both of which apparently make it cost prohibitive. If this is true, how long before supply chains are shut down and manufacturing facilities can't get parts?

    My company also has a new policy where we need executive committee approval to travel even locally by car. I've got a shop that plans to have one of my machines assembled in 10 days and I'm not sure I'll be able to drive over (45 minutes away) to do the debug. This not only screws my company, but the machine build shop will get really hurt because they can't invoice until the machine is ready to ship. They can't really even finish the assembly without my being there - I can answer most of their questions by e-mail or phone but for some things I just need to be there to look at it first hand. I'm still waiting to hear if I'm allowed to go to the shop tomorrow.

  3. #543
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    Quote Originally Posted by Punkinhead View Post
    . . .

    My company also has a new policy where we need executive committee approval to travel even locally by car. I've got a shop that plans to have one of my machines assembled in 10 days and I'm not sure I'll be able to drive over (45 minutes away) to do the debug. This not only screws my company, but the machine build shop will get really hurt . . .
    I'd go for the executive approval. Not only because it helps in this one case, but because it helps fine-tune their version 1.0 response. Your machine builder should send workers with symptoms home with pay and clean up if any cases. If all's clear you can then keep your distance, sanitize hands before entering, don't touch your face, and then sanitize again before you get in the car -- you should be about as safe as at work or even home. If you can't keep from touching your face, instead of safety glasses in the shop wear a clear or mesh face guard. Meanwhile, take a couple extra minutes, look a bit silly, but keep two businesses afloat.

    I've had three cases in the past 24 hours, seeing County and then getting both local hospital people and a roofing company to amend hastily-conceived bans. By applying good sense we all can have a surprising amount of leverage at the local level.

  4. #544
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    Quote Originally Posted by Punkinhead View Post
    We had some machines that were supposed to ship between two of our plants in different European countries. That's been canned because there's no cross-border travel allowed. I was told it could be done only if the freight company switched drivers at each border or the machines switched trucks, both of which apparently make it cost prohibitive. If this is true, how long before supply chains are shut down and manufacturing facilities can't get parts?

    My company also has a new policy where we need executive committee approval to travel even locally by car. I've got a shop that plans to have one of my machines assembled in 10 days and I'm not sure I'll be able to drive over (45 minutes away) to do the debug. This not only screws my company, but the machine build shop will get really hurt because they can't invoice until the machine is ready to ship. They can't really even finish the assembly without my being there - I can answer most of their questions by e-mail or phone but for some things I just need to be there to look at it first hand. I'm still waiting to hear if I'm allowed to go to the shop tomorrow.
    what countries are they supposed to be transported from and to?
    i might be able to figure out if transport is possible.
    sitting at home, ten days to go,nothing better to do anyway.

  5. #545
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    Quote Originally Posted by jdgoguen View Post
    A report in Science today estimates that 75% of transmission in China was from asymtomatic individuals. Keep your distance.
    There's a paper just out in Science "Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)" by Li et al. They use a math model to understand how infection rates and symptomatic rates play out in the world. There strong hint is that SARS-CoV2 will become endemic. The idea of all this "social isolation" is to "flatten the curve" to keep infection rates low enough so that hospital ERs and ICUs and ventilators aren't overwhelmed as they have been in Hubei and Northern Italy (and I suspect Iran as well). I've read an ICU physician's account of what's happening in an ICU overrun with Covid patients. Their entire ICU is critical Covid patients, they're entire surgical floor is non-critical covid cases, they don't have any unused respirators, and they're even running out of masks (thanks, Costco hoarder idiots) so they're reusing old ones after treating with bleach. Not SOP, but...

    Some may resent having the truth told. That truth is that it is unlikely that we will avoid an overwhelmed healthcare system in certain parts of the US, and that hospital bests, ICU beds, and ventilators will NOT be available for all patients that need them and that people will die because of this. Also true that social isolation will reduce the peak load (it "flattens the curve") on these systems and will lessen the extent of of unserved patients. And that willfully gathering in large groups, bars and restaurants will increase the peak number of unserved patients. Pretty clear choices, and pretty clear consequences of choices.

    There's an intensive care physician's "one-pager". It's pretty interesting. A lot of doctor's tech-talk but it has mortality statistics here. If you're 25, the odds are better. 80? Not so much. But it's a lethal disease that's incredibly easy to transmit.

    Again, if you don't believe me, check out President Trump. Hardly a chicken little. But he's gone from "We only have one case, no problem" to suggesting that folks don't gather in groups of more than 10 with all the negative economic consequences that he's been very concerned about. And you can sense the, well, let's call it concern, in his latest news conferences.

  6. #546
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    thanks for injecting some solid data bosleyjr.

    good on ya.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Punkinhead View Post
    My company also has a new policy where we need executive committee approval to travel even locally by car. I've got a shop that plans to have one of my machines assembled in 10 days and I'm not sure I'll be able to drive over (45 minutes away) to do the debug. This not only screws my company, but the machine build shop will get really hurt because they can't invoice until the machine is ready to ship. They can't really even finish the assembly without my being there - I can answer most of their questions by e-mail or phone but for some things I just need to be there to look at it first hand. I'm still waiting to hear if I'm allowed to go to the shop tomorrow.
    We are in a situation where one of our lead engineers who lives in Seattle is prohibited on a startup and commissioning of our machine . . . we are going to try this with another engineer on site.

    Between this technology and remote desktop, I am thinking that we can get through the startup ok and the less experienced engineer on site will get a crash course on how to start up a 21 Axis machine with 4 safety zones that control safe limited speed and safe limited torque functionality.

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    Only a 21 axis machine with a newbie.
    How hard can that be?
    Big fun and I would love to play but glad you did not toss this in my lap.
    I would get so little sleep until up and going.

    Maybe this turns out good . Commission a install with no feet on the ground. I understand that not easy by any stretch in a custom machine
    No airplanes, no hotels, no paid travel time, all that money that some customers whine and cry about.

    Other side, stick your top guy in a car and go drive for 2 days.
    Cost not that big there and back.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by motion guru View Post
    We are in a situation where one of lead engineers who lives in Seattle is prohibited on a startup and commissioning of our machine . . . we are going to try this with another engineer on site. . .
    Hope you'll let us know how that goes.

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    On the positive side, we have seen a sharp decline in Antifa activity around here.

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  13. #551
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    Quote Originally Posted by bosleyjr View Post
    China's draconian methods ...
    Just one tiny corection, Bos .... it wasn't draconian. I guess we're a bunch of sissies but when news started filtering out about Wuhan, people here wanted the government to spring into action. We were not forced to stay home. We did not want to go out and bring home some virus that would kill grandma.

    This is a perfect example of how the government reflects the people.

    Of course grandma and grandpa babysit the kids here, so maybe there was an econmic incentive but one thing should be reiterated - not draconian in any way. The public was 200% behind these measures.

    Maybe that's why they worked.

    Quote Originally Posted by jdgoguen View Post
    A report in Science today estimates that 75% of transmission in China was from asymtomatic individuals. Keep your distance.
    jd, don't know where they got that ? But the stats from WHO indicate that no, it's not common in the general population, and no, there are very few asymptomatic people (turns out that afterwards the 'asymptomatic' cases remember "oh yeah, I did have a cough and felt shitty that week") and no, as opposed to flu it is rare in the general population. The real driver of transmission is in close contact, such as the home.

    Not trying to argue but can't fight with the wrong tactics.

    p.s. Science (or Science Today ?) is not helping themselves by drawing the wrong conclusions, when you can look at the numbers and see their statements are innacurate

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    Will call at McMaster is closed, from their site when I placed an order

    Pick up
    Due to COVID-19, we are limiting person-to-person contact at our facilities. Pick up is unavailable. Please select another delivery method.


    I'm 15 minutes away from the Santa Fe springs facility, so no more "oh s*** it's sunday morning and I'm out of ****, no probs, call Mcmaster and will call it Sunday"

    Might have to plan ahead, no more JIT orders of parts, supplies etc etc

    S**t is getting serious now
    Last edited by triumph406; 03-18-2020 at 03:07 AM.

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    I have one job left to complete with no work coming in.

    This is going to be bad.

    Sent from my ASUS_X017DA using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by motion guru View Post
    We are in a situation where one of our lead engineers who lives in Seattle is prohibited on a startup and commissioning of our machine . . . we are going to try this with another engineer on site.

    Between this technology and remote desktop, I am thinking that we can get through the startup ok and the less experienced engineer on site will get a crash course on how to start up a 21 Axis machine with 4 safety zones that control safe limited speed and safe limited torque functionality.
    At least we have the advantage of machines are much simpler than yours - typically a single machine or line of 1/2 dozen robots with standard conveyors.

    I got executive approval overnight to work at the build shop so I'm heading over today but surrounding towns are starting to shut down so I'm not sure how long it'll last. We've been using TightVNC for years to do remote support for vision training, minor code changes, and troubleshooting but I draw the line at remotely changing any code that effects robot motion. A problem we've had for the past 5-6 years is being forced to ship machines before they're ready. We're given an insufficient quantity of debug parts and a lot of times the parts are pre-production so don't really represent what the machine will build. In the past 2 years we've even shipped lines that haven't run a single part all the way through. That will have to stop since we won't be able to follow the equipment to the plants and spend a couple weeks finishing software/vision.

  17. #555
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    I don't know anybody locally that's worried about the Corona virus. However, I work in the oil industry, which has been hit very hard since people aren't traveling. The little spat in the Middle East isn't helping, either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by steve45 View Post
    I don't know anybody locally ...
    Midland ! Hey, is Jim Hall still hanging out down there ? Rattlesnake Raceway ? Big white birds running across the desert sands ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Just one tiny corection, Bos .... it wasn't draconian. I guess we're a bunch of sissies but when news started filtering out about Wuhan, people here wanted the government to spring into action. We were not forced to stay home. We did not want to go out and bring home some virus that would kill grandma.

    This is a perfect example of how the government reflects the people.

    Of course grandma and grandpa babysit the kids here, so maybe there was an econmic incentive but one thing should be reiterated - not draconian in any way. The public was 200% behind these measures.

    Maybe that's why they worked.


    jd, don't know where they got that ? But the stats from WHO indicate that no, it's not common in the general population, and no, there are very few asymptomatic people (turns out that afterwards the 'asymptomatic' cases remember "oh yeah, I did have a cough and felt shitty that week") and no, as opposed to flu it is rare in the general population. The real driver of transmission is in close contact, such as the home.

    Not trying to argue but can't fight with the wrong tactics.

    p.s. Science (or Science Today ?) is not helping themselves by drawing the wrong conclusions, when you can look at the numbers and see their statements are innacurate

    Emmanuel, I would suggest that the methods used were (just a second ....) Ok, I'm back. I had to look up Draconian. Pertains to Draco, an Athenian lawyer who created one of the first written compilations of law. The set of Draconian laws were notable wrt to the severity of punishment. I would suggest that, compared to our Western sense of human rights, the sequestration was pretty strong. However, here we're doing ok with people essentially self-enforcing social distancing, except for some idiotic grand-standing politicians who want to insist that there's no crisis. Point is, I accept that the Chinese people accept a less extensive set of human rights, ceding those rights to the government and/or party, in exchange for the government/party producing results. Is that a fair recapitulation of your statement? Is it accurate?

    No offense, but I have to take the word of an article in Science (it is Science, a peer-reviewed journal vs Science News Journal, TodayScience, or Science Daily, wihich publish topical summary articles I believe) over what someone (even such an august personage as yourself, sir!) says on social media. But if you have a scholarly analysis, or even a data source, that shows that transmission by asymptomatic cases is NOT significant, especially in an area of high rates of infection, I'd love to see it. I agree with your point that "Ready! Fire! Aim!" is a poor way to fight this battle. Let's get the actual data and ensure that we've analyzed it correctly (which is what I do for a living, btw. I just hang out with machinists and pretend to be one for the prestige).

  20. #558
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    Maybe someone in the 28 pages has already mentioned this but today I find out that even McMaster Carr is out of commercial toilet paper (9 and 12" rolls) and can't say when they will get more !

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  22. #559
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milacron View Post
    Maybe someone in the 28 pages has already mentioned this but today I find out that even McMaster Carr is out of commercial toilet paper (9 and 12" rolls) and can't say when they will get more !
    And institutions are closing restrooms due to shortages and toilet paper theft. A society gone amuck due to fear and hysteria.

    We have a reasonable supply at home but I'm already looking at other paper sources within the home for reasonably comfortable alternatives - just in case!

    Brown paper shopping bags have already dropped to the bottom of the list.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    A society gone amuck due to fear and hysteria.
    Agreed. You would think that these morons didn't have showers in their homes. Hell even a bidet, not that they are common in the U.S.


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