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    Quote Originally Posted by ChipSplitter View Post
    Feed the panic, man. Feed the panic.

    I think it's a lot of psychology in it. If everyone panics, it WILL bring the global economy down. If everyone stays rational and sane, however, I think it will be controlled and eventually fade in the rearview mirror just like the swine flu and SARS.
    Controlled is the word

    without taking action to prevent the spread, then it will not fade

    the stupidity around here is amazing

    OF course you all know better than the people that have been studying it all their lives

    This is not saying any particular course of action is correct or incorrect, but the people who study this are saying to do certain things

    That is by no means or definition panic

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    Quote Originally Posted by motion guru View Post
    The TP sales did get one of our customers to finally engage us to start up a TP line upgrade that we shipped back in August of last year. This will increase the baseline supply of TP to stores by about 600 rolls (of 2-ply embossed premium brand tissue) per minute of operation by about Saturday of this week.

    We were initially bummed that they delayed the start up, but now we are doing our part to cushion the runs on TP that have wiped out "supplies for the number 2 producer" in the industry.
    Wait - I'm the number 2 producer!

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    How Taiwan and Singapore have contained the coronavirus.

    I mean, does this sound like panic? Or a technological approach to an outbreak?

    Certainly some measures in other countries would not be acceptable here

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Controlled is the word

    without taking action to prevent the spread, then it will not fade

    the stupidity around here is amazing

    OF course you all know better than the people that have been studying it all their lives

    This is not saying any particular course of action is correct or incorrect, but the people who study this are saying to do certain things

    That is by no means or definition panic
    Absolutely correct. Of course, we don't have the ability to verify the truth of what the media says, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't follow their recommendations. If we don't do it voluntarily, we're going to need laws to make it mandatory. It's the people who aren't buying the fear who are putting the rest of us at risk. Experts know what's best for everyone. I'm seeing a lot of misinformation coming from the fringes and these people need to be held accountable. I mean, Dr. Sanjay Gupta said 80% of people who are infected with coronavirus have minimal symptoms or no symptoms at all. Who is this kook, and why is CNN giving him a platform to spew this nonsense? I'm serious.

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    I lost a lot of work to China last year, I was competitive on price but not delivery.

    With the coronavirus I assumed I would get some of this work back again.

    Tuesday I'm asked to re-quote all the parts I used to make. So I spend time (and material vendors time) re-quoting. Then I'm told that I shouldn't have got the quote package as it's all going to China as the Chinese vendors have assured my customer that their unaffected by the coronavirus and can deliver on time.

    Pisses me off as I'm the only local vendor who will make their parts, their nothing special, except the customer is a complete pita to deal with.

    I've been watching a youtube livefeed from various webcams in Wuhan, it's a ghost city there. I can't believe where these parts are going to be made is any better.

    Sucks because I really needed the work. Of course I hope the customer doesn't trip over his d*** on this one.

    Live feed from Wuhan

    YouTube

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    Quote Originally Posted by RJT View Post
    I've been somewhat skeptical that this thing has been overblown by the press.
    I heard a news service say that the virus is man-made. Which means biological terrorism. Could be just a test case with acceptable collateral damages.

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    Quote Originally Posted by triumph406 View Post
    I've been watching a youtube livefeed from various webcams in Wuhan, it's a ghost city there. I can't believe where these parts are going to be made is any better.
    Most places are semi-normal now. Wuhan is the exception.

    Not entirely normal but a reasonable facsimile thereof.

    Sounds like that customer is a prick, tho. I would turn my back on them and look for better ones. Easier said than done but still ...

    Maybe make you feel better, some PA's are just assholes. SRAM needed a couple hundred springs for their top-line shifter, not even sold to the average Joe. Local outfit quoted them $1.10 per spring. Some Taiwan place quoted them $.90. Local springs went 100,000 cycles before breaking, Taiwanian not quite 10,000.

    No-brainer, right ?

    They bought from Taiwan. Made zero sense but that's the way it is, some of these places are in love with themselves as "global entrepreneurs".

    I would not buy a doghouse from SRAM, they are a bunch of pricks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rons View Post
    I heard a news service say that the virus is man-made. Which means biological terrorism. Could be just a test case with acceptable collateral damages.
    People are saying

    WFT

    grow up

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    I mean, Dr. Sanjay Gupta said 80% of people who are infected with coronavirus have minimal symptoms or no symptoms at all. Who is this kook, and why is CNN giving him a platform to spew this nonsense? I'm serious.
    Maybe he is correct, I have heard from several sources, young people may have no symptoms period. Older people and from what I have read on PM today smokers and those with TB and other infections are the most vulnerable. Old people in general because of too aggressive an immune response suffer from accumulation of fluid in the lungs. With all the arthritis drugs today suppressing immune response it would seem there judicious use in the elderly might have some merit.

    Others here have mentioned there are many corona viruses, maybe the older you are the more aggressive your immune response since your immune system has seen them all by the time you get old.

    Cattle are known to get corona viruses, hope that cattle or some other animal does not become a reservoir for continued reemergence of this one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    Absolutely correct. Of course, we don't have the ability to verify the truth of what the media says, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't follow their recommendations. If we don't do it voluntarily, we're going to need laws to make it mandatory. It's the people who aren't buying the fear who are putting the rest of us at risk. Experts know what's best for everyone. I'm seeing a lot of misinformation coming from the fringes and these people need to be held accountable. I mean, Dr. Sanjay Gupta said 80% of people who are infected with coronavirus have minimal symptoms or no symptoms at all. Who is this kook, and why is CNN giving him a platform to spew this nonsense? I'm serious.

    When I first read this I thought you WERE joking. Dr. Gupta is a respected professional medical reporter who is a neurosurgeon by training and he isn't the only one saying that. I have seen several other doctors on other networks say essentially the same thing. Far from being kooks, they are medical professionals who are trying to convey the truth but they are largely being drowned out by the shrieks of "the sky is falling" news pundits.



    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Except the death rate has been following in this country
    The death rate is a statistic based on the KNOWN number of people exposed to this virus, and is very high because so few people have been tested. It is almost a certainty that many people who haven't been tested have had the virus and recovered, and in that case the actual percentage is much, much lower.

    If someone here knows of a COVID-19 fatality within the United States who was NOT a person with chronic underlying health issues please post a link. It is indeed sad and I feel for their relatives but this disease is taking the same people who succumb to influenza and other infections every year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    When I first read this I thought you WERE joking. Dr. Gupta is a respected professional medical reporter who is a neurosurgeon by training and he isn't the only one saying that. I have seen several other doctors on other networks say essentially the same thing. Far from being kooks, they are medical professionals who are trying to convey the truth but they are largely being drowned out by the shrieks of "the sky is falling" news pundits.





    The death rate is a statistic based on the KNOWN number of people exposed to this virus, and is very high because so few people have been tested. It is almost a certainty that many people who haven't been tested have had the virus and recovered, and in that case the actual percentage is much, much lower.

    If someone here knows of a COVID-19 fatality within the United States who was NOT a person with chronic underlying health issues please post a link. It is indeed sad and I feel for their relatives but this disease is taking the same people who succumb to influenza and other infections every year.
    blah de blah de blah

    enter statistics into your empty skull, rattle them around for a while then spit them out

    we are dealing with numbers that are known, and yes they will change, but not because you think they will

    country after country with and without other diseases, similar or higher mortality rates

    and the flu also has mitigating issues, but that is not important to you is it?

    stupid

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    MotionGuru, sorry to hear about your Mom. Yes, elderly, and especially folks needing care are at risk. I hope she does well.

    FWIW, I’ve started a ‘nesting’ process for my elderly parents. Limit their exposure outside of the house and to others. Suspect this infection will burn out in North America by July, but next few months will be difficult.

    L7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Miranda View Post
    Wait - I'm the number 2 producer!
    I'm doing my part to relieve the tp shortage - I have asked my employees to please recycle the tp at least twice before flushing it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    blah de blah de blah

    enter statistics into your empty skull, rattle them around for a while then spit them out

    we are dealing with numbers that are known, and yes they will change, but not because you think they will

    country after country with and without other diseases, similar or higher mortality rates

    and the flu also has mitigating issues, but that is not important to you is it?

    stupid
    Of course, what the TV says is important--even with the disinformation campaigns we're seeing from some outlets--but the #1 way we know something is true is when there's a scientific consensus. There may be some guys with credentials on the fringes who disagree with the consensus, but they probably got their degrees and tin-foil theories from some 3rd-tier school in the mid-west. I'm tired of seeing people talking like this isn't as big a deal as the real scientists with real degrees are saying. The idea that any of us would doubt what Ivy-educated officials would say is totally outrageous. Scientists learn statistics in school. It's not something normal people are going to understand. If anything, the officials are trying to prevent mass panic, so I wouldn't be surprised if the reality of this outbreak isn't an order of magnitude worse than they're saying.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    blah de blah de blah

    enter statistics into your empty skull, rattle them around for a while then spit them out

    we are dealing with numbers that are known, and yes they will change, but not because you think they will

    country after country with and without other diseases, similar or higher mortality rates

    and the flu also has mitigating issues, but that is not important to you is it?

    stupid
    Yet another insightful, well-reasoned post from our friend gustafson.

    What you fail to understand about relying on news reports about another country's statistics is that the devil is in the details. There are reasons why some populations are more vulnerable than others and without knowing all the details about those patients statistics can be misleading. In northern Italy most of the deaths were either among migrants with latent TB or older Italians with serious health issues. same deal in China except the guys with TB weren't foreigners.

    Here in the U.S., unless someone can provide proof to the contrary, all of the deaths have been among people with chronic health problems. Most of the deaths were among nursing home patients and no one is put in a nursing home if their health is good. Healthy seniors go to assisted living centers or other senior facilities where the focus is not so much on medical care.

    Again, those high mortality rates are suspect because so many details are being withheld about the victims. Much of this is for political reasons. Italy doesn't want to reveal how severe the health problems are among the migrant population and China has been secretive and deceptive about this from the start, just as they have done with past illnesses.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    Of course, what the TV says is important--even with the disinformation campaigns we're seeing from some outlets--but the #1 way we know something is true is when there's a scientific consensus. There may be some guys with credentials on the fringes who disagree with the consensus, but they probably got their degrees and tin-foil theories from some 3rd-tier school in the mid-west. I'm tired of seeing people talking like this isn't as big a deal as the real scientists with real degrees are saying. The idea that any of us would doubt what Ivy-educated officials would say is totally outrageous. Scientists learn statistics in school. It's not something normal people are going to understand. If anything, the officials are trying to prevent mass panic, so I wouldn't be surprised if the reality of this outbreak isn't an order of magnitude worse than they're saying.
    What an outrageous bit of elitist clap-trap! Your comment about "ivy educated" is the first clue. There are many highly skilled professionals who did not graduate from ivy league schools and the idea that ordinary people can't understand statistics is nonsense. Anyone in engineering or other technical professions has to have training in statistical methods. Statistics is at the core of quality control and proper analysis of production failures and customer returns is critical to spotting issues before they get out of hand. It is also possible to lie with statistics or at least paint an exaggerated picture. This book is the bible for understanding the tricks used by politicians and media and was one of the textbooks in my Media and Communications class.

    howtolie.jpg

    Used properly, statistics give valuable insights into complex systems but too often they are misused to deceive those who don't understand how it is done. Without seeing the raw data on which they are based any statistics should be viewed with suspicion.

    PS: If you think I am wrong just because I am going against the prevailing tide of opinion try reading through the Ebola thread and see my comments vs the media inspired posts about "an extinction level event". The final tally was 11 total cases, 9 of them contracted outside the USA. 2 of the 9 died. The 2 patients who contracted Ebola within the U.S. were both nurses caring for patients and both survived and fully recovered.

    Way OT Ebola

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    Many places on the net to read about the TP mentality. Feel hopeless and this cheap and something I can do easily.
    Heck even Johnny Carson put a run on this once with a single joke.

    The real effect is shutting things down to try to stop it. To me that and it's ripple effect is more worrying than the virus "death rate".
    Simply stopping consumers in their tracks for 3-4 months as it works it way though a country is a very large hit that recovers oh-so slowly.
    First it is local coffee shops, concerts and events, McDonalds and the lot. Then those people previously employed in such have no money to spend and don't buy hard goods.
    Manufacturing decline will lag the virus by a good six months.

    The news and scare may be worse than the virus in toll.
    Some are going to go belly-up just due to sales income or job loss and this leads to life ending decisions.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredC View Post
    Maybe he is correct, I have heard from several sources, young people may have no symptoms period. Older people and from what I have read on PM today smokers and those with TB and other infections are the most vulnerable. Old people in general because of too aggressive an immune response suffer from accumulation of fluid in the lungs. With all the arthritis drugs today suppressing immune response it would seem there judicious use in the elderly might have some merit.

    Others here have mentioned there are many corona viruses, maybe the older you are the more aggressive your immune response since your immune system has seen them all by the time you get old.

    Cattle are known to get corona viruses, hope that cattle or some other animal does not become a reservoir for continued reemergence of this one.
    I remember reading during the VW dieselgate scandal that quite a bit of population in general carry the TB bug (10-15% afair), it is either dormant or something like that, but the increase in the COx/NOx is decreasing respiratory system resistance to it, I believe very little to such broad claims especially when they come out during such scandals, but it might be interesting to see air quality map on top of infected areas with most severe cases

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    Of course, what the TV says is important--even with the disinformation campaigns we're seeing from some outlets--but the #1 way we know something is true is when there's a scientific consensus. There may be some guys with credentials on the fringes who disagree with the consensus, but they probably got their degrees and tin-foil theories from some 3rd-tier school in the mid-west. I'm tired of seeing people talking like this isn't as big a deal as the real scientists with real degrees are saying. The idea that any of us would doubt what Ivy-educated officials would say is totally outrageous. Scientists learn statistics in school. It's not something normal people are going to understand. If anything, the officials are trying to prevent mass panic, so I wouldn't be surprised if the reality of this outbreak isn't an order of magnitude worse than they're saying.
    Hey i’m from the midwest 3rd tier skool?
    8th grade was the best 3 years of my life! Lol


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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