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  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    I do not see anyone saying that everything that is being done is the best possible idea, or absolutely required

    A useful comparison:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...u-coronavirus/


    The moral of the story, Philadelphia has a big war bond parade as the flu raged



    In 6 weeks, 12000 were dead

    St Louis cancelled a similar parade


    700 died


    The 1918 flu had a similar death percentage to Corona



    It is not panic, pinheads, it is planning
    Does closing schools slow the spread of coronavirus? Past outbreaks provide clues | Science | AAAS

    .........

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Many places on the net to read about the TP mentality. Feel hopeless and this cheap and something I can do easily.
    Heck even Johnny Carson put a run on this once with a single joke.

    The real effect is shutting things down to try to stop it. To me that and it's ripple effect is more worrying than the virus "death rate".
    Simply stopping consumers in their tracks for 3-4 months as it works it way though a country is a very large hit that recovers oh-so slowly.
    First it is local coffee shops, concerts and events, McDonalds and the lot. Then those people previously employed in such have no money to spend and don't buy hard goods.
    Manufacturing decline will lag the virus by a good six months.

    The news and scare may be worse than the virus in toll.
    Some are going to go belly-up just due to sales income or job loss and this leads to life ending decisions.
    Bob
    in short: fuck the old and the sick as long as we can carry on who cares?

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  4. #83
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    Since none of you did. Here is some useful info

    This place seems to know a few things about diseases

    COVID-19 information

    | Hub


    dee
    ;-D

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    Maryland isn't fat, it's just short for it's weight.

    On topic- Yes, the Chinese flu panic is affecting my business. People are staying home, the freeways are free of the usual congestion, and I can get back and forth to work in 20 minutes instead of the hour it normally takes.

    That's an extra hour of production each day.
    Last edited by jancollc; 03-12-2020 at 09:46 PM.

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  8. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by janvanruth View Post
    in short: fuck the old and the sick as long as we can carry on who cares?

    Not at all, you totally missed the point.
    We may make the suffering greater than the virus ever could of on it's own.
    Who works these jobs and has no money on hand?
    Buried friends who went broke?
    Yes , I do worry about the economy and jobs here.
    Things go bad and people die of not natural causes, self inflicted or crime. Those do not get counted as part of a virus.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Not at all, you totally missed the point.
    We may make the suffering greater than the virus ever could of on it's own.
    Who works these jobs and has no money on hand?
    Buried friends who went broke?
    Yes , I do worry about the economy and jobs here.
    Things go bad and people die of not natural causes, self inflicted or crime. Those do not get counted as part of a virus.
    Bob
    the economy will suffer, people will lose their jobs, people will go broke.
    but they will all survive to fight another round.
    the virus, if left on its own, will kill at least 6,000,000 people in the USA before the end of the year.
    how is that for suffering?

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    Quote Originally Posted by janvanruth View Post
    the economy will suffer, people will lose their jobs, people will go broke.
    but they will all survive to fight another round.
    the virus, if left on its own, will kill at least 6,000,000 people in the USA before the end of the year.
    how is that for suffering?
    Are you reading Tea leaves again?

    If we run out of toilet paper, we can always use a dollar, but I don't think 100 pennies will get the job done.....

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    "The only thing new in the world is the history you don't know." - Harry S. Truman



    I didnt know.

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    Quote Originally Posted by janvanruth View Post
    the economy will suffer, people will lose their jobs, people will go broke.
    but they will all survive to fight another round.
    the virus, if left on its own, will kill at least 6,000,000 people in the USA before the end of the year.
    how is that for suffering?

    Y2K again....

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    Quote Originally Posted by JS View Post
    Are you reading Tea leaves again?

    If we run out of toilet paper, we can always use a dollar, but I don't think 100 pennies will get the job done.....
    no need for tea leaves.
    just simple math.
    in two weeks time the shit will have hit the fan in the USA.

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    Here's another interesting site with all kinds of data on the virus:
    Coronavirus Update (Live): 134,685 Cases and 4,973 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

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    My wife and I were in the Costco in Missoula Montana today, it was a madhouse, on gal stocking the shelves said it has been 10 times busier than it was for Y2K. Tp was on our list but none was there, paper towels were also gone, people all seemed to have 1/2 cart to 2 carts of bottled water. We saw more workers pushing pallets out of the back room and just dropping them in the isles than we thought possible. I don't know if there was soap hiding in there somewhere but we gave up looking and went home as the thing we really wanted was 40 of the 4 foot LED shop lights and there were lots of those, the other stuff we just thought we would pick up while we were there. My wife did pose a good question while we were looking for soap, " what is going to happen to all of the other germ sicknesses if all of the sudden everyone starts washing their hands like they have been being told to do all of their lives?" she is thinking that doctors may have to learn to change oil, stack bricks or something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    The real effect is shutting things down to try to stop it. To me that and it's ripple effect is more worrying than the virus "death rate".
    Bob, have you considered that maybe a big disruption for a short time is better than a smaller disruption that lasts much longer ?

    China has had both SARS and this. They learned from SARS (something which Scott is apparently incapable of doing.) This time, they shut the doors hard as soon as they realized what was going on. Now we are done. Life is mostly back to normal here. Taiwan, with a little more warning, did even better. What the Philippines is now doing, and what Trump is doing, is stupid. Once the snake is in your house, closing the doors is useless.

    What the disease will do without controls has been tested. Look at Wuhan. What the disease will do with controls has also been tested. Look at the rest of China and Taiwan. South Korea let it get too far first, but at least they came to their senses quickly.

    You've got the disease. Which way do you want to go, Taiwan or Italy ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredC View Post
    On TP reports showed there was a run on it in China as well as shortages, I guess that behavior is contagious also.
    "Reports show" .... bullshit. As a non-quarantined person who doesn't care if it's today or tomorrow, I wandered all over the place. NO shortages of toilet paper. In fact, no shortages of any essentials, until a week or two in when some places started running out of imported goods.

    Grocery stores were the one thing that stayed open (tracking and temp tests to get in), we were never short of anything, people in general did not hoard stuff. Convenience stores ran short on their nasty sandwiches and other junk because all the small restaurants were shut, but they ramped up on that crap pretty fast. They will need to drop back again pretty soon.

    That was pretty much it for shortages. No hoarding. Definitely no toilet paper shelves empty. We have all you could want, need me to send some over ?

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    Here's a very good discussion of the virus and it's potential effects:


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    Where I was working today we had a vendor in installing some equipment on one of the machines.

    He was supposed to go Sacremento (from LA) Friday to do another installation

    The customer sent him a form to fill out certifying that he hadn't been abroad in the last 14 days, hadn't been around anybody known to have tested positing for Covid-19. he signed and sent it back

    Today the customer (very large facility producing food items) informed him that all vendor visits, regardless of importance were suspended indefinitely.

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    I am a medical school professor and sat through infectious disease grand rounds today on COVID-19. Iíve also worked with highly virulent pathogens for 30 years, and have spent more time decked out in PPE than I care to remember. The best available age vs mortality data for the current corona virus show a sharp increase at age 60 to something like 1.5%. It gets to over 3% for age 70, and into the teens for 80 and above. Treatment is limited to supportive care: there are no useful antivirals. The number of infected people is unknown because so little testing has been done, and the young are often asymptomatic or have very mild disease. Testing here is currently available only on a very limited basis with a long turn around time. A large diagnostic lab nearby is expected to have a test running in a week or two, but also expects to be completely overwhelmed by demand. Case numbers are at least a week behind actual infections due to the incubation period, but there is so little testing the numbers are pretty much meaningless as an estimate of the infected population.

    As others have mentioned, the great concern is that hospitals will be overwhelmed. Current estimates suggest that In a moderate scenario we will need on the order of 200,000 intensive care beds. There are fewer than 50,000 nationally. Social distancing may keep the rate at which intensive care beds are required below capacity at any one time. It is basically the only practical approach available to minimize mortality until vaccine is available, which will be at least a year and probably longer. If anyone has a better idea, I havenít heard it.

    Iím semi-retired and 69. I donít need to go to campus an a regular basis. My wife and I are staying home as much as possible. We stocked up with food, etc so that we donít need to make frequent shopping trips. Iím scheduled to give two medical lectures next week, but as of yesterday these were moved to on-line, no students in the lecture hall. I will probably cancel a trip to Arizona scheduled for early April, but havenít decided yet. I did get a 50% refund on the air tickets and no-cost rescheduling if I choose.

    Be careful out there!

    Jon

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    Quote Originally Posted by janvanruth View Post
    no need for tea leaves.
    just simple math.
    in two weeks time the shit will have hit the fan in the USA.
    One of us is an idiot ask me in two weeks...

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    Yes, it's hokey as hell. But compare it to the response in other places then say honestly which is preferable (and who will come out better in the end ?):

    Xi speech on coronavirus


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