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  1. #1721
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    German population 84million
    USA 326m
    German to USA 4x population
    German deaths 351
    USA deaths ,1710
    4x 351 is. 1,404
    So USA deaths are about 22% higher than Germany's rate of deaths.

    This comparing totals. interesting would be to compare new deaths numbers. to see if news are increasing, leveling off or staying the same.

    looks like about 1.6% deaths to confirmed in the USA another important number to watch.

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    Default Reinfection risk? This is concerning.

    Some Recovered Coronavirus Patients In Wuhan Are Testing Positive Again : Goats and Soda : NPR

    Reports of a "second round" of infection in previously recovered patients in China. Small numbers so far, but that it's a risk is not comforting, perhaps especially if they're asymptomatic.

    Or it could be failures of the test. More to come from this, I expect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    Great for Germany..still I wonder how they had that many test kits on hand if everybody is/has been tested.
    I think I read in the NY Times that Germany had a test kit operational by January, which the CDC refused to permit for use in the US. This could explain why Germany had testing so early.

    foundit

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a9ef618c_2

    Yeah, January 17. Good case here for early intervention.

    Janco might want to read the credits, page one. Or then again, he probably will not

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  5. #1724
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I think I read in the NY Times that Germany had a test kit operational by January, which the CDC refused to permit for use in the US. This could explain why Germany had testing so early.

    foundit

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a9ef618c_2

    Yeah, January 17. Good case here for early intervention.

    Janco might want to read the credits, page one. Or then again, he probably will not
    Doesn't suit his dogma, so fake news. But I'm waiting for your take on #1721...

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I think I read in the NY Times that Germany had a test kit operational by January 17th, which the CDC refused to permit for use in the US. This could explain why Germany had testing so early.

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a9ef618c_2

    Yeah, January. Good case here for early intervention.
    AFAIK in most countries the limitation is not ”test kits” but PCR sampling/testing/automation. US managed to screw their testing somehow looking for wrong gene sequences in the RNA or whatever.
    Or did they attempt antibody testing at first?

    Finland could order 1 million test kits but we still have capacity to process only about 2000 tests per day. German RKI ”CDC” runs with german efficiency and automation but even they have to start limiting the testing soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    Some Recovered Coronavirus Patients In Wuhan Are Testing Positive Again : Goats and Soda : NPR

    Reports of a "second round" of infection in previously recovered patients in China. Small numbers so far, but that it's a risk is not comforting, perhaps especially if they're asymptomatic.

    Or it could be failures of the test. More to come from this, I expect.
    Or it could be China sowing more panic so we finish ourselves off, saving them the trouble. There are plenty in the U.S. who are shielded from the damage and quite ready to help spread the fear.

    When it comes to numbers I don't give a rat's ass about China, Italy, or even Germany. What I care about is the actual results in the U.S. as a nation, not just some New York neighborhood loaded with Chinese, many of whom came home from New Years after visiting "the hot zone" in China. The last time I looked we had less than 800 deaths in a nation of over 330 million people. Those are the only numbers that matter, not questionable statistics from other nations not backed by full data on demographics and health profiles.

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    Most china numbers are mainland china where cases seem to have peaked and gone down.
    Hong Kong sees to still be going up.

    2020 coronavirus pandemic in Hong Kong - Wikipedia

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    Doesn't suit his dogma, so fake news. But I'm waiting for your take on #1721...
    Read something to that effect somewhere, but people were not extremely worried for a couple of reasons. One was that exit testing is perhaps not super accurate, people may not be totally clean at the time they get kicked out (like that scene in Sweeny Todd, "more hospital beds !") and the other was, we don't need to be anal about getting every single case to break up an epidemic. Break the back of the thing first, then concentrate on smaller clusters and so on ... someone who comes back down with covid is certainly going to recognize what it is the secod time and people should be a little careful after having it, to not go out singing karaoke in a big crowd.

    Sounded like it wasn't something to fear greatly ... apparently all the new cases in China are coming in from outside now ? Which would mean that it can in fact be knocked out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Read something to that effect somewhere, but people were not extremely worried for a couple of reasons. One was that exit testing is perhaps not super accurate, people may not be totally clean at the time they get kicked out (like that scene in Sweeny Todd, "more hospital beds !") and the other was, we don't need to be anal about getting every single case to break up an epidemic. Break the back of the thing first, then concentrate on smaller clusters and so on ... someone who comes back down with covid is certainly going to recognize what it is the secod time and people should be a little careful after having it, to not go out singing karaoke in a big crowd.

    Sounded like it wasn't something to fear greatly ... apparently all the new cases in China are coming in from outside now ? Which would mean that it can in fact be knocked out.
    I think the concern is that one should not usually get reinfected with the same disease.

    I don't think there is any reason to believe that is happening, but it is unusual anyway.

    Appears they are hoping it is a false positive

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    When / if that makes top and then humps to start gong down..We all have to work for that...It took China a time so I hope we can do the same.
    This is about how the China graph looked.. see decline.

    china graph of virus - Yahoo Image Search Results
    Do note it says "hypothetical model."

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    Currently in Spain there's a HUGE commotion because China knowingly supplied faulty/false test kits to Spain.
    But at least the gov has admitted it went looking on the cheap (foreign minister admits searching for cheap solution!)

    Coronavirus: El Gobierno buscaba “gangas” y se encontro con 650.000 test defectuosos

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    German age distribution was somewhere but I’m now playing on mobile and unable to dig out large pdf’s. If Italy and Spain would have enough testing capacity it would show large amount of mild cases among younger people.
    (Italy and Spain have probably still larger percentage of older people infected due to cultural differences)

    Mortality for people under 50 is something like 0.2% and for age over 70 its like 10% so it makes huge difference if infected are young or older folks.
    When you have time if you could please dig it out it will be much appreciated.

    Cultural differences - i note that most people i see (Spanish) smoke. Including all the younguns. Maybe a "thing"?
    Also, i wonder how the Germans are treating people with it - especially the advanced stage? Are they doing *something* different to Spain/Italy?

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    I really think that "reliable reporting" is a thing of the past nowadays. Brexit has shown this.
    It's now all to do with what side of the fence and who's funding who IMHO...
    The local news now a days is about the only source I find just reporting the news with out the political spin. The rest seem to have a habit of telling one side of the story and leaving out important details. The worst ones are the "unarmed minority" killed by police stories. I have seen quite a few where they just happen to leave out or bury the fact the perp had a stolen car, was ramming police cars and trying to hit cops standing outside their cars. Last I checked a vehicle can be used as a weapon, so calling the guy unarmed is a flat out lie.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    Do note it says "hypothetical model."
    Agree:
    It looks a lot like the China actual graph, that is why I used that one . I saw it on a video ..but don't have a copy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Currently in Spain there's a HUGE commotion because China knowingly supplied faulty/false test kits to Spain.
    But at least the gov has admitted it went looking on the cheap (foreign minister admits searching for cheap solution!)
    Been addrressed. Those were not real, they were not from the China government, not on the list of approved suppliers, and apparently not even that inaccurate, considering they were a different method which is not as precise as the correct ones.

    You're right, Spain cheapied out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    The local news now a days is about the only source I find just reporting the news with out the political spin. The rest seem to have a habit of telling one side of the story and leaving out important details. The worst ones are the "unarmed minority" killed by police stories. I have seen quite a few where they just happen to leave out or bury the fact the perp had a stolen car, was ramming police cars and trying to hit cops standing outside their cars. Last I checked a vehicle can be used as a weapon, so calling the guy unarmed is a flat out lie.
    What a bunch of crap

    the only lie is that any news organization does that.

    Fox news tells you that they do, but they don't

    Most cops don't shoot anyone, ever.

    That doesn't mean all cops are justified in every shooting

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Or it could be China sowing more panic so we finish ourselves off, saving them the trouble. There are plenty in the U.S. who are shielded from the damage and quite ready to help spread the fear.

    When it comes to numbers I don't give a rat's ass about China, Italy, or even Germany. What I care about is the actual results in the U.S. as a nation, not just some New York neighborhood loaded with Chinese, many of whom came home from New Years after visiting "the hot zone" in China. The last time I looked we had less than 800 deaths in a nation of over 330 million people. Those are the only numbers that matter, not questionable statistics from other nations not backed by full data on demographics and health profiles.
    Right because everyone else on the planet is motivated just to screw with you, that is why they publish numbers, and make them up, just to fool you

    No there are not really 9000 people dead in Italy, the Chinese are hiding 10000 bodies, or is it there nver were any bodies, you are confusing me, which narrative are you trying to push here?

    'Last time you looked'

    1700 dead in this country today, so for someone with so many opinions on the subject you are woefully uninformed


    Again, blaming the foreigners, the other

    Not the fault of the old white guy in charge for not being able to manage his way out of a wet paper bag

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  22. #1738
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    IDK if this has been posted yet as I can't keep up with all the gee and haw here, but it was mentioned earlier that Germany has such a lower death rate, and in this artical it says that the reason their % is so much lower, is likely b/c they test a much higher % of the people. Not just those that are in bad shape.

    Germany has a remarkably low coronavirus death rate — thanks largely to mass testing, but also culture, luck, and an impressive healthcare system



    ------------------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    Agree:
    It looks a lot like the China actual graph, that is why I used that one . I saw it on a video ..but don't have a copy.
    China Coronavirus: 81,394 Cases and 3,295 Deaths - Worldometer


    looks like China is now reporting less than 10 deaths a day...Agree who knows how accurate that is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    IDK if this has been posted yet as I can't keep up with all the gee and haw here, but it was mentioned earlier that Germany has such a lower death rate, and in this artical it says that the reason their % is so much lower, is likely b/c they test a much higher % of the people. Not just those that are in bad shape.

    Germany has a remarkably low coronavirus death rate — thanks largely to mass testing, but also culture, luck, and an impressive healthcare system



    ------------------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox
    Testing is a big part of the perceived ratio, but there are other articles that speak more broadly about the reasons.

    They got lucky, their initial cases were apparently young and healthy

    Then they acted early.

    Testing does not solve an epidemic

    Acting on the results of that testing does.

    Germany, South Korea, they acted and tracked, early

    Now, I will be careful not to too loudly applaud germany, they are on the vertical part of the curve, things can change


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