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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Another thing it would be useful for people to understand is how large groups increase the chances of coming into contact with the virus. While it's basic statistics, it seems counter-intuitive to many.
    This is a good insight, Pete. Glad you brought up the 70% isopropanol issue. Do you know if it applies to viruses? My recollection is that bacteria have a defense mechanism against 100% - the change form temporarily or something like that. But I may have it backwards. And bacteriologists or virologists reading this?

    This made me think of one of those brain teaser things. Completely off topic, but hopefully interesting to some. It's called the Birthday paradox. If you have a randomly selected crowd, at what point is the likelihood that two people will share a birthday? Turns out to be 23 people. Maybe this is relevant: people are really bad at statistics. Since we all likely have time right now, if you can afford it, check out a Kindle version of "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman.

    Right now my colleague's daughter (a nurse about 25 or so who's ward had many Covid patients, and where 40% of staff has had the virus) is in self isolation due to fever and cough. Her mom (my colleague and friend) used to work for the (British) National Health Service. Called her daughter yesterday and it took all the motherly influence she could wield to have her daughter get up and take a Tylenol to address a spike in the fever. So, to Milland's point, yeah, even the young get hammered by this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nice Guy View Post
    I have been lurking on this site lately because I'm trying to decide which machine tools to buy. I am a radiologist at my day job. If there are medical questions I will try to answer. Much of what I know about COVID comes from docs only facebook pages where docs are sharing information and trying to figure out what to do. I am out of the hospital through next week, taking call for procedures from home.

    Nice Guy, you'll probably be able to interpret medical lingo for us. I'm ok with the statistical part, and with the math epidemiology models. That covers advice relevant to shelter in place vs self-isolate vs maintain distance and wash your hands frequently.

    We have practical advice above about how to avoid getting the virus from store purchases.

    The next step is what to do if you have the virus (general recommendations, not specific medical advice). How does this list sound? Take your temperature periodically. This gives you a baseline, and may help let you know that your not in bad shape yet. But if you have a cough and a fever, first make sure that no one visits you and that you don't go out and contact others. THIS MEANS DON'T CALL YOUR MOM/DAD/SISTER/BROTHER/OTHER RELATIVE OR FRIEND TO COME CARE FOR YOU! Call your Doc, or a health care facility. They may tell you to take a tylenol. Let anyone you've been in contact with know your symptoms. One of them may be infected but may not be hit as hard as you, and may be exposing others.

    Not sure what other treatments or palliative measures would help. What are you reading Doc?

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    This was sent to me by a friend, purportedly by Johns Hopkins. What I question is the first sentence (it being a DNA rather than RNA assemblage). It also is at least four days old and doesn't cover the aerosol issue. The handling of exposed clothing before washing could have a bit more info. Also not sure about UV being fully effective in sterilizing face masks (but certainly wouldn't hurt to put them out in the sun for three days straight). Still, the characterization of how the virus does / doesn't die seems about right to me:

    Johns Hopkins University has sent this detailed note on avoiding the contagion:

    * The virus is a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

    * Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

    * The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
    Pete, that was all very helpful cut your quote down to a couple of points, the covid19 is very small compared to other corona virus so it floats easier. The fat surround in the DNA/RNA package must be thinner than most others. Means it is more fragile? Since the core package is essentially nonliving how do they tell if it is still viable or not? Is testing for life on different surfaces looking for integrity of the fat shell, the core package or combination? Growing on a petri dish is impossible correct?
    Does the thinness and fragility of the shell support the contention that it can not be transmitted from one place to the other in the body through the blood? Maybe the shell dissolves in the blood and core package is dispersed doing no harm?
    Transfer through blood sucking insects and the host species(bats)and humans has never happened before, so destruction of the virus in the blood could be a real thing?

    Answers to these questions could help all of us.

    One thing that is worrisome is, what if our pets or some other animal becomes a reservoir for this thing and it keeps coming back unlike SARS and MERS.

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    Answers to a lot of questions could help us all. Unlike China, the Italians published data on the correlation between deaths and underlying conditions. IMO not only should we be skeptical of the mortality figures from China but also of their claims that they have "beaten" the virus. In a society that has the power to sweep individuals for the streets based on possible contacts and is known to rigidly control communication it would be naive to assume they wouldn't conceal further casualties in the same spirit with which they concealed the earlier ones.

    I'm hearing reports that China may have severely damaged their economy with their heavy-handed containment efforts and it would be in their interest to encourage us to do the same by feeding us information designed to scare us into a nationwide lockdown.

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    I don't think I could lay things out as well as the CDC has: www dot cdc dot gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
    There is a link at the top of the page for "If you are sick."
    Reports out of France led to concern that NSAIDS like Ibuprofen make things worse and that is virally going around the web. I looked into that again last night for someone and there is not good evidence to support that. You will find that info if you google "science Misguided drug advice for COVID-19" without the quotes. Better explained in "wired Ibuprofen Debate Reveals the Danger of Covid-19 Rumors".
    If you are sick with COVID at home I would caution you that if you have shortness of breath, better described on the CDC site as "emergency warning signs" to get into the hospital immediately. The decline at that point can be precipitous.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bosleyjr View Post
    This is a good insight, Pete. Glad you brought up the 70% isopropanol issue. Do you know if it applies to viruses? My recollection is that bacteria have a defense mechanism against 100% - the change form temporarily or something like that. But I may have it backwards. And bacteriologists or virologists reading this?

    This made me think of one of those brain teaser things. Completely off topic, but hopefully interesting to some. It's called the Birthday paradox. If you have a randomly selected crowd, at what point is the likelihood that two people will share a birthday? Turns out to be 23 people. Maybe this is relevant: people are really bad at statistics. Since we all likely have time right now, if you can afford it, check out a Kindle version of "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman.
    . . .
    Bosley, not sure on the interaction of 70% isopropyl alcohol with viruses; which don't have a cell membrane. Could be the H2O helps disrupt the proteins. Could be not. My understanding with bacteria is that 100% can cause some of them to go quickly into spores or at least a hardened membrane; thereby protecting them.

    I asked a friend this morning - head of microbiology dept. at our local university - and asked him about IPA and bacteria/viruses. He's thinking on it, initial thought was that it might be an osmotic pressure thing with cell walls for the bacteria.

    We also discussed the purported "Johns Hopkins" note above that had me a bit skeptical but also thinking it useful. Barry's thought was that it might have been something like a grad student, perhaps not a native English speaker (he's judging from his own post docs?), who knew something but was trying to make it simple and along the way had several errors. Not just the DNA/RNA thing that caught my eye, but a couple other quibbles.

    Kahneman is one of my favorites, too. Years ago I did a summary of the near 200 known biases and heuristics we know - more of them (around 20) researched by Kahneman and Tversky than anyone else. A few years later Kahneman came out with his general public book and I had a chance to talk with him. In my own experience, when I'd give a talk about biases and heuristics, almost no one thought that was something they needed to work on - rather something they needed to get others to fix in themselves. Danny Kahneman was equally unsure of how we could get people/nations to a bit more "thinking slow" in those critical situations that needed it.

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    I think the Chinese are currently under reporting based on what I've seen on the docs only pages. The Chinese initially tried to contain the virus with measures that exceed what we are doing, traffic ban, social distancing and home quarantine. That changed the dynamic but there was still exponential growth. It wasn't until they did central quarantine that they broke the exponential spread. Notably they have adequate PPE for health care workers, which we are struggling with. So based on that experience it would be the expectation that we will continue to have exponential growth with the patchwork restrictions we are working with in the US. This is a presentation of an analysis of that effort: drive dot google dot com/file/d/14tGJF9tdv4osPhY1-fswLcSlWZJ9zx45/view?fbclid=IwAR0MpdGsK0_C9e0sqtlycnBMzNeorvTfAAq-E3PLOnmt2YaUCVAW62UWE54
    Their economy was certainly damaged, as is ours, by the response. The financial times has an excellent summary page www dot ft dotcom/coronavirus-latest and near the bottom are metrics of the damage it did to their economy.

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    So not good but a question and more just for fun and laughs.
    This thing gets in you nasal, throat and then lungs.
    Alcohol kills it even if seated inside but not yet attached?????
    YouTube
    Bob
    (not medical or any type real advice, this is supposed to be fun and light-handed with a neat tune)

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    In the early 80's I took a course called Judgement under Uncertainty with the textbook being written by Kahneman and Tversky. Very interesting. There was much about radiophobia, fear of radiation, that I deal with on a daily basis at work.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nice Guy View Post
    I think ....
    Nice ? It's probaly better if you don't speculate about China. You weren't here, and aren't here, and no one outside the bigshots knows what is really happening with "the economy." Foreign writers have zero access to any real information about that. I can say with certainty that Zhejiang, Chongqing, Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu are all back to work now. School starting maybe next week.

    Also I have no idea what you mean when you say "central quarantine." There was no pan-China response. Actions were different in different places, according to what the situation was. This part I know to be true, from being in three provinces during this period and having friends in others.

    It is not profitable to come to conclusions if you don't know all the factors.

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    hand washing time question. I notice I tended to wash my hands for about ten seconds before this excitement. I know they now recommend twenty seconds wash time. Does the actual washing time extension make a difference or is simply rubbing for ten seconds and allowing the soap to sit for another ten seconds give the same effect. I know soaking a pot overnite in soapy water does more then washing it for 30 seconds.
    So is it actual physical movement or is it time in contact that is most important. Don't rich ladies pay lots of money to soak their hands in soapy water at a salon?
    Bill D
    Last edited by Bill D; 03-27-2020 at 04:56 PM.

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    I believe the purpose of the extended hand washing time is to get one to pay attention to what one is doing. namely, concentrate on each finger, thumb, back of the hand and wrist, and palm.(per my EMT training "back in the day"...)
    Case in point- "boy, put the dead mouse down, and wash your hands"... GF grandson, 9 yrs old, picks up soap bottle with left hand, squirts some on the right. Puts bottle down, reaches up with said left hand, and turns on the water. Rinses the soap off the right hand in the water flow, before reaching in with left hand and rubbing the palms only together for about 2 seconds (if that) before reaching up with the left hand to turn off the water and grab the kitchen towel to dry his hands... I go thru the roof, and nobody knows why. BTW- grandmaw is a nurse, and a very intelligent one, at that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post

    Also I have no idea what you mean when you say "central quarantine."
    If you want to know what central quarantine is you could open the link provided.
    If you want to see what measures of economic activity they are using it's in the link provided.
    If you believe China is being transparent that's great. Remind me how did this start?

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    So the last couple pages mentions Alcohol but no definitive answer on 100% ethanol. Like denatured alcohol from the paint dept. at Lowes. Effective straight? Dilute with 10-20% water?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dkmc View Post
    So the last couple pages mentions Alcohol but no definitive answer on 100% ethanol. Like denatured alcohol from the paint dept. at Lowes. Effective straight? Dilute with 10-20% water?
    "CDC recommends the use of alcohol-based hand sanitizers with greater than 60% ethanol or 70% isopropanol as the preferred form of hand hygiene in healthcare settings.."
    Denatured alcohol has substances added like benzene that you could have a reaction to. So best not use it for disinfection.

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    I go by Sylvia Brown and her prediction..."In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments. Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it arrived, attack again ten years later, and then disappear completely."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pathogen View Post
    I go by Sylvia Brown and her prediction..."In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments. Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it arrived, attack again ten years later, and then disappear completely."
    So at some point the Illuminati releases an airborne vaccine dispersed in military jet vapor trails?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dian View Post
    so is ipa better than ethanol?

    Yes. India pale ale is much better than the straight stuff. If you pretend to work in a field where precision matters then use proper terminology. India Pale Ale is IPA. Isopropyl alcohol ( 2 words, notice?) would be IA. Or if it matters it is Isopropyl Alcohol. Lose the trendy terms. For example you probanly think that a first responder is a fireman, policeman, or EMT. WRONG!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pathogen View Post
    I go by Sylvia Brown and her prediction..."In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments. Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it arrived, attack again ten years later, and then disappear completely."
    Well it looks like she got another one at least partially wrong - AGAIN! COVID-19 does not resist all known treatments as physicians have reported initial success with everything from intravenous vitamin C to antimalarial drugs.

    Given the woman's dismal past record of accuracy I'd say the bit about a pneumonia-like illness in 2020 was partly luck and partly based on knowledge that pneumonia-like illnesses are a problem in many years.

    Sylvia Browne: Dead Psychic's Legacy Riddled With Failed Predictions, Fraud | HuffPost

    Sylvia Browne’s Best & Worst Predictions Over the Years – SheKnows

    The Psychic Defective Revisited: Years Later, Sylvia Browne’s Accuracy Remains Dismal | Skeptical Inquirer

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    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Dickman View Post
    So face masks are in super short supply. I'm at the market yesterday, and there are lots of people wearing face masks which can't be new, and are obviously showing signs of getting ripe. What diseases are we opening ourselves up to with people wearing the same mask for two weeks on end? It's like giving a baby one pair of diapers to wear for a year.
    This ad ran in Negligent Mother magazine. : funny

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