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OT - Price of Lumber - HOLY CRAP - will it return to normal, or is this the new norm?

S

snowman

Diamond
Joined
Jul 31, 2004
Location
Southeast Michigan
Building a floor for the shed I moved for the chickens to live in. Not a tax evasion scam, they currently live in a shipping crate. If someone wants to come do the concrete prep work and pour a footing for their house, I'll happily pay the taxes on it.

I've now got more into the floor than I paid for the used shed.

A sheet of 3/4" treated plywood is $50 now? A standard 2x4 is over $5.

I was paying 35 on the plywood when I built the duck house.

What am I missing, and is this just the new normal?
 
Supply and demand.
Hope not the new normal but right now it is like hurricane prices everywhere.
Production down and new housing demand has gone through the roof.
There is a whole mess of "work from home" and move.
Bob
 
snowman said:
Building a floor for the shed I moved for the chickens to live in. Not a tax evasion scam, they currently live in a shipping crate. If someone wants to come do the concrete prep work and pour a footing for their house, I'll happily pay the taxes on it.

I've now got more into the floor than I paid for the used shed.

A sheet of 3/4" treated plywood is $50 now? A standard 2x4 is over $5.

I was paying 35 on the plywood when I built the duck house.

What am I missing, and is this just the new normal?
Click to expand...
The entire US and World was on fire a few weeks back when we had all the West Coast fires that consumed the news.

I can't access the Worldwide fire data like I did then. (Three of my family members were on evac alert in two completely separate areas, and we were the safe house) So was carefully monitoring fires, when I noticed that basically half the entire US had fires, but so did South America (huge), and Africa had an eyewatering amount. Madagascar looked like the entire Island was on fire, and a whole bunch of the South pacific too.

So I expect lumber prices are going to be really high for a long time. Wherever it comes from now.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
CarbideBob said:
Supply and demand.
Hope not the new normal but right now it is like hurricane prices everywhere.
Production down and new housing demand has gone through the roof.
There is a whole mess of "work from home" and move.
Bob
Click to expand...

yeah, i had heard rumors over the summer from a former neighbor that he couldn't find lumber to get a deck built. then i got my roof quoted and he said something about plywood costing $30/sheet. I guess I never really put it all together.

meanwhile the roofing guy quoted me, i told him estimate was fine and to pick up a deposit and he completely ghosted me...and he comes with references. guess i get to put a new roof down on the garage as soon as my cast comes off.
 
It's about the people that ain't working, throughout the supply chains.

All these covid lockdowns are going to have some real effects as the people that used to be feeding raw materials into the system are only gradually returning to work, as well as all the people in the processing chain. And the distribution chain. And in the retail....

Sorta what a fella should expect, since the whole planet seems to have run for cover at the screech that the sky is falling!

Gods help us all, if something actually virulent and effective ever decides to make landfall!
 
Americans have said ‘screw you’ repeatedly to the Canadian lumber industry that was playing fair. Perhaps higher prices are what you deserve. Or you could play fair?

L7
 
Could you be a bit more specific about that? How did the US (Canadians live in America too) say that to the Canadian lumber industry? The lumber is in the stores and we buy it. I have bought lumber in the past several months, but not in great quantities. I paid the price they asked. I did not say anything to the Canadian lumber industry.



lucky7 said:
Americans have said ‘screw you’ repeatedly to the Canadian lumber industry that was playing fair. Perhaps higher prices are what you deserve. Or you could play fair?

L7
Click to expand...
 
Lumber mill down the street and forest service hq.

Lot of issues from the lockdown, lot of new homes (lots and lots of new homes), seasonal demand, and wait for it... consolidation in the industry. It's not a monopoly, but collusion is close enough.
 
lucky7 said:
Americans have said ‘screw you’ repeatedly to the Canadian lumber industry that was playing fair. Perhaps higher prices are what you deserve. Or you could play fair?

L7
Click to expand...

From my memory. Canadian lumber coming into US at prices so low the US companies are hurt, cannot compete. US slaps a surcharge on Canadian lumber to protect US producers. Correct so far? Canadian lumber producers invest in latest equipment to lower the cost to produce lumber and are back in the market. US producers sit on their ass and complain again.
 
About two weeks ago I was talking to the owner of the yard I deal with. Prices started going up when the lockdown started and was crazy all summer - we had been talking about that all summer. He had just seen prices starting to drop a bit but still high of course. But that was then. The little building I did this summer I was lucky - he had bought (for him) and extraordinary amount of framing lumber in January. So until August we were still paying January prices and got a good deal.

Lumber/plywood is a commodity and trades as such, which cranks the price around as well. I imagine it will start to come down but we'll only know for sure when we see it. Too many dang variables this year.

Dale
 
A friend who is a home builder and contractor just bought a lumber yard just to be able to keep supplying himself.

Couple months ago I wanted to rebuild a small deck on my home. Took one look at treated lumber prices and limited availability and decided it can wait.

Going from what Scott said, there are 6 new houses within sight of my own being built. Demand is quite high.
 
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