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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by trevj View Post
    All I see in these is an answer to the First World Problem, of feeling guilty about ones own well-being, and being well off enough to be able to spend a portion of ones disposable income on yet ANOTHER car, so as to feel like one is DOING something.

    Pure waste.
    Except if you actually spend time driving a Tesla, you find out that the experience of driving it is, put simply, better.

    I have a buddy who just turned in his M5 lease for a brand new Tesla 90D (AWD, but without the crazy Ludicrous performance stuff). He's about a week into it... he will never drive another ICE car again. And he wasn't exactly coming off of a clunker.

    One of the investors in my company has a Porsche 997 Turbo and a P90D. He is probably selling the Turbo or turning it into a track only car (or buying a GT3 and turning it into a track car).

    Those are just the guys I know with Teslas who had "fast" cars before. Around here, they are like Toyotas, and everyone I know who bought one:
    A- Came from owning late model Mercedes/Audi/Lexus/BMWs
    B- Will never buy a Mercedes/Audi/Lexus/BMW again, if it isn't 100% electric.

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by trevj View Post

    All I see in these is an answer to the First World Problem, of feeling guilty about ones own well-being, and being well off enough to be able to spend a portion of ones disposable income on yet ANOTHER car, so as to feel like one is DOING something.

    Pure waste.

    Hanermo-

    Do you have the 'well to wheel' petroleum use comparison numbers at your finger tips for IC vs EV vehicles?

    Last time I checked the fishing still sucks here- 30% of Eutrophication forcing nutrients come directly out of IC vehicles.
    If a broader adoption of EV lessens this and helps in ANY measure to restore some of our trashed coastal waterways I am all in.
    We are still primitive fucks- burning things to get down the road is barely above the camp fire energetically.
    Time to move on boys- the future is bright.

    Thanks

  4. #23
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    Yes.
    Its about 4:1 to 5:1 in favor of electrics, not taking into account the resource use of oil exploration and extraction, or battery "extraction" costs, or grid transmission losses (we need the grid anyway, so its "paid for".
    The grid does not wear more from EV use. In fact, "extra" profits from extra sales of kW, let utilities maintain and upgrade grid elements.).

    A Tesla uses == 300W/km.
    An ICE car, approx 1200-1500 W.

    An oil well, fracked/deepwater (ie most not saudi) is approx 45-60$/barrel in costs.
    If sold at 90$ (depends on what nr you use), 2/3 of resources were used in extraction.

    I think midstream (pipelines) are 1-2%, and refining 2-5%.
    Dont have nr for these, just coming off their 10Ks and financials/prospects. TLAR method.
    (Thats Looks About Right).

    So, overall, oil might be a 50%-60% (saudi included) blended loss globally.

    A battery is extremely efficiently produced, in comparison.
    Highly automated, Very High Volume (billions of units, 100x more than auto production).
    Lithium is a tiny part, very efficient (evaporate in sulight, open ponds).
    Cobalt is mined, but again, small part of total.

    Might say batteries have maybe 20-25% resource extraction costs, today.
    This is dropping 1-3% y/y, on scaling effects.
    The drop will continue for a long time, at least 10 years, on volume.
    Just like PV panels, costs dropped 99%.
    Or gold mining, similar thing.

    Thus, battery extraction costs will go to 5-10%, where/until process efficiencies start to mount up.

    Just like in machining.
    If you have enough volume, multispindle/pallet pool/horizontals etc. make parts cost really low, in % terms.
    The exact same applies to lion batteries.
    But, Tesla is the first, and so far only, major user of batteries, in the world.
    (BYD uses a different type of battery).

    Thus, its obvious that Teslas costs will be really low, from about *now*.
    The same applies to anyone else, of course, who uses 100.000 x 80 kW == 8 GW/yr.

    And their pricing will most likely be based on 500k cars/yr use, sliding scale.
    The good part is this.

    Once batteries are cheap to make, lets say panasonic (LG, whomever).
    Say, production costs drop to 50$/kW.
    So, global client 1 wholesale, eg Tesla, might pay 60$.
    But, everyone else might pay only 70$ (otherwise middlemen buy 10 GW at 70 and drop ship at 77).


    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    "Pure waste"...

    Hanermo-

    Do you have the 'well to wheel' petroleum use comparison numbers at your finger tips for IC vs EV vehicles?

    Thanks

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  6. #24
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    Thanks





    ,,,,,,,,

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    Good point, but I disagree politely on facts.
    In Norway 22% of all new cars are electrics.
    Most are Teslas.
    Its cold in Norway.

    There are no major reports of major losses in Teslas.

    Again, the power loss is maybe 2 kWh, per day, for heating- 1 kW for 1 hour, 2 hours driving.
    Note also that all losses in an electric cars are heat, and all the heat warms the car.

    Teslas in Norway were bought due to tax policies - yes, but still the Norwegians have good experiences.

    The thing is, scandinavian countries have electric hookups for all cars, in parking lots, for engine block heaters, standard on all cars sold for 15 years or more.
    The engine, battery, and car are already all warmed up when you get into the car.
    Thus, range is not lost, in practise.

    When you drive to your cottage, in the wilderness, and dont have electricity, and leave the car for a week, then you have range loss.
    This is not, of course, what you do most days, or ever for most people.

    Its true of course that alaska is a more difficult environment.
    But alaska does have electricity, afaik.
    Thus the same cord that heats the blocks in IC cars, can well prewarm the Tesla battery and interior.

    As long as you have electricity, electric cars (*with big batteries) have been proven to work extremely well.
    So far, Tesla (BYD) is the only production car with a reasonable battery.
    This will change, and around 2018 there will be 20-30 choices.

    If you live in alaska, have huge driving distances, and there is no electricity at the end, a BEV is not a viable choice.
    Most people drive to work in an environment where you can work in comfort, have electricity, and thus charging (warming) the car is a non-issue.

    Also, most people or 95% of the world, use 220V mains with 3-4-5 kW available, on a drop cord.
    The US is the only major economy with 110V.
    Basic drop cords are 3 kW rated, over here.

    Quote Originally Posted by DocsMachine View Post

    Now, don't take that wrong. I have nothing against electrics. I'd love to have a Tesla, personally. But generally speaking, full electrics are simply NOT a truly viable choice outside of the Sun Belt.

    Doc.

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    I saw a Tesla on the highway Fri. ( really )
    The driver was wearing a toque and gloves .
    I was in my V8 pickup
    I often wear a toque when I'm cold.
    Blah blah inserted to make this seem longer and more thought out
    I was not wearing a toque or gloves.
    Thereby be it resolved :
    'I must be coldblooded.'
    --- Trevor

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    Quote Originally Posted by DocsMachine View Post
    -'Couple points...

    One, that 270 miles of range is generally an absolute perfect-conditions potential best. As virtually all real-world full-electric drivers have found, that's anywhere from mildly to wildly optimistic.

    Two, your calculation doesn't take into account the power loss from the cold itself. I have no data on how Tesla's high-tech batteries handle the cold, but since virtually all batteries work via some form of chemical reaction, and physics dictates that chemical reactions slow as they get colder, total range-per-charge will be strongly diminished.

    Being an Alaskan, I'm well aware how a good strong conventional car battery, which can fire a hot high-compression big-block within half a revolution on a warm day, can barely turn over a small four cylinder on a cold day.

    And three, a 1,500 watt electric heater, I will also attest from direct personal experience, will NOT keep the passenger area of your car comfortably warm- or even just reasonably warm. Parked, maybe. With moving air, and having to draw cold air in for the defrosters, no way in hell.

    Now, don't take that wrong. I have nothing against electrics. I'd love to have a Tesla, personally. But generally speaking, full electrics are simply NOT a truly viable choice outside of the Sun Belt.

    Doc.
    The engineers at Tesla are pretty clever. As I understand it, the batteries are warmed by waste heat from the motors while driving. Of course, it's also pretty easy to heat the batteries with grid power while the car is being charged at night. The end result is very little loss of range.

    I disagree that electric cars are only viable in the sunbelt. I see 2-3 Tesla every day, rain or shine, summer or winter. Colorado weather is not as harsh as in Alaska, but it sure isn't the sunbelt.

  10. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkoenig View Post
    Except if you actually spend time driving a Tesla, you find out that the experience of driving it is, put simply, better.

    I have a buddy who just turned in his M5 lease for a brand new Tesla 90D (AWD, but without the crazy Ludicrous performance stuff). He's about a week into it... he will never drive another ICE car again. And he wasn't exactly coming off of a clunker.

    One of the investors in my company has a Porsche 997 Turbo and a P90D. He is probably selling the Turbo or turning it into a track only car (or buying a GT3 and turning it into a track car).

    Those are just the guys I know with Teslas who had "fast" cars before. Around here, they are like Toyotas, and everyone I know who bought one:
    A- Came from owning late model Mercedes/Audi/Lexus/BMWs
    B- Will never buy a Mercedes/Audi/Lexus/BMW again, if it isn't 100% electric.
    Thanks. You have pretty much spelled out exactly who I see these cars as being marketed to.

    Folks that have a bunch of money to spend on conspicuous consumption items.


    Ooooohhh! It's simply, better! Well lah de dah!

    You ARE right. I should drive one. I'll get on it when I am done driving all the Lamborghini and Ferrari models to see which I prefer....

    Yeah, right. Nope.

    First and foremost, to buy in, you first have to be a believer. You have to feel guilty about being here on the Planet, and you have to think that, for some strange reason, all and every ecosystems on this planet were static and unchanging until evil humans came along and fucked it all up. That's not me. The true believers will happily forgo the heat and air conditioning, 'for the cause', but most won't.

    1500 watts to keep the windows clear? Not gonna happen except when it's nice out. 1500 watts was the block heater that allowed my car to start, when it was cold out. It was a whole lot of that waste heat from the engine that warmed the car and kept the windows clear, sometimes only barely, when the weather was shite.

    Maybe someone that cares to will dig out the actual numbers? Do they put AC into the cars? What's the power consumption of that? The Tesla set don't strike me as the types liable to be running around in traffic sucking fumes with the windows down, or am I wrong? It gets HOT in California still, yeah? They still have traffic jams?

    Anyways, if it ain't obvious, I do not actually see these vehicles as much more than the same novelty that electric cars were 100 years ago. The only thing that has really changed since then, is the marketing angles.

    Cheers
    Trev

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    Quote Originally Posted by trevj View Post

    First and foremost, to buy in, you first have to be a believer. You have to feel guilty about being here on the Planet, and you have to think that, for some strange reason, all and every ecosystems on this planet were static and unchanging until evil humans came along and fucked it all up. That's not me.

    Head in the sand a bit....?

    One example of thousands of things we "fucked up":

    Pollution of the Hudson River - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    You one of those guys who dump waste oil in your front yard or just use a local creek?

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  13. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by gkoenig View Post
    Except if you actually spend time driving a Tesla, you find out that the experience of driving it is, put simply, better.
    .
    Not sure about better but certainly simpler and easier.
    That linear response just makes it effortless to go semi-fast and so much easier for a rookie than a traditional supercar.
    This may or may not be a good thing as it may seem too easy to go fast but some won't know what to do when the poop hits the fan.
    Owning a fast car and knowing how to drive one fast are two very different things.
    In the past such cars were brutal and gave you warnings at lower speeds that you were in over your head. With these, not so much.
    A 20 year old with a 200mph car that you just have to push down the right foot and effortlessly reach these speeds.
    A 6th grader could do the same. What possibly could go wrong?
    Bob

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    How big of a douche bag do you have to be to use another guys last name for your car company? Just because Musk sounds bad, doesn't mean you can use someone else's name. I hope Tesla goes bankrupt soon.

    Maybe I should start a computer company and call it Steve Jobs Computers.

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    Bjorn Lomborg: Green Cars Have a Dirty Little Secret - WSJ

    The whole thing is worth reading (and it's short) but this may be the most frustrating information:

    "The current best estimate of the global warming damage of an extra ton of carbon-dioxide is about $5. This means an optimistic assessment of the avoided carbon-dioxide associated with an electric car will allow the owner to spare the world about $44 in climate damage. On the European emissions market, credit for 8.7 tons of carbon-dioxide costs $48.

    Yet the U.S. federal government essentially subsidizes electric-car buyers with up to $7,500. In addition, more than $5.5 billion in federal grants and loans go directly to battery and electric-car manufacturers like California-based Fisker Automotive and Tesla Motors. This is a very poor deal for taxpayers."

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  18. #33
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    At the moment, based on 3 years use for 100k cars, AC or heating seem to reduce range about 5%-8%, or 30 miles, from 250 or so.

    Quote Originally Posted by trevj View Post
    Maybe someone that cares to will dig out the actual numbers? Do they put AC into the cars? What's the power consumption of that? The Tesla set don't strike me as the types liable to be running around in traffic sucking fumes with the windows down, or am I wrong? It gets HOT in California still, yeah? They still have traffic jams?

    Cheers
    Trev

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    I'm definitely going to keep watch on the Model 3's when they come out. If the real world range is anywhere near 200 miles, it's going to sell very well. I don't see much issue with that kind of range... you plug it in every night and it charges up. Most people don't travel 200 miles in a week much less in one day! For $35k, they're competing with a base BMW 2 or 3 series, or a Mercedes CLA.

    I recently changed jobs and my old 50 mile round trip commute just went up to 110 miles. The ol' Golf TDI is proving it's worth but even this long commute is possible with the Tesla (and cheaper).

  20. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny SolidWorks View Post
    Bjorn Lomborg: Green Cars Have a Dirty Little Secret - WSJ

    The whole thing is worth reading (and it's short) but this may be the most frustrating information:

    "The current best estimate of the global warming damage of an extra ton of carbon-dioxide is about $5. This means an optimistic assessment of the avoided carbon-dioxide associated with an electric car will allow the owner to spare the world about $44 in climate damage. On the European emissions market, credit for 8.7 tons of carbon-dioxide costs $48.

    Yet the U.S. federal government essentially subsidizes electric-car buyers with up to $7,500. In addition, more than $5.5 billion in federal grants and loans go directly to battery and electric-car manufacturers like California-based Fisker Automotive and Tesla Motors. This is a very poor deal for taxpayers."
    Ah, so everyone can just plunk down a couple C notes and the problem is solved? Does mother earth take credit?

    Sorry to sound a bit harsh but when an article tries to put a dollar value on irreparable harm that's being done to the environment, my BS-o-meter starts going off.

    The fact of the matter is that emissions from fossil fuels are affecting our environment in a negative way. Electric vehicles may or may not be the answer but they're a step in the right direction. In certain areas where power is produced renewably, they are incredibly clean.

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    Quote Originally Posted by trevj View Post
    Thanks. You have pretty much spelled out exactly who I see these cars as being marketed to.

    Folks that have a bunch of money to spend on conspicuous consumption items.


    Ooooohhh! It's simply, better! Well lah de dah!
    If you're going to shit on a company, at least have the intellectual honesty to see what that company has stated, multiple times and publicly and loudly, what their strategy is.

    From the very start of the company, Musk admitted that they needed to build knowledge, scale and demand for electric vehicles. To do that, Musk also publicly posted the company's strategy... back in 2006. Hell, he even titled that blog post "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)"

    The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Tesla Motors

    Let me quote the end bit:

    Build sports car
    Use that money to build an affordable car
    Use that money to build an even more affordable car
    While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
    Don't tell anyone


    The average selling price of a Model S is $75k, before tax incentives. It definitely isn't a fucking Kia, but your hyperbole about Lambos and Ferraris is a couple of orders of magnitude off base. The market for cars in class of Tesla would be the BMW 5 series, Mercedes E Class, Audi A6/A7, Lexus LS... We're talking an annual market share (total) of about 2 Million vehicles (hell, BMW built 350k 5 series cars in 2014, just to give you some idea of the scale here).

    So the Model S is definitely affordable to a large enough segment of the car buying public. It's also ignited demand. The Model S outsells the Mercedes S Class amongst luxury buyers. The Model S dominates every road test or review it is in. The Model S has been called the best car ever made by Consumer Reports. The Model S has the best safety record, per miles driven, of any vehicle made. The Model S has the highest owner satasfaction rating, of any vehicle ever made.

    On that last point, let us consider how extraordinary this is, because everyone admits the Model S has had some teething issues and the early models required a lot of finnicky fixes. Despite that, owners are so happy with the vehicles, that Tesla toppled Porsche for overall brand loyalty.

    Everything Tesla has been doing has been a work-up to the Model 3. And they've executed like fucking bulls. With 250k orders on the books by now, Tesla will not have a problem getting financing (christ, VC money keeps pouring cash into Uber, and they keep blowing over a billion dollars a year).

    Past performance is the most reliable indicator of future performance; and betting against Musk is pretty stupid.

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  23. #37
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    To the fans a real question.
    How do you like living with yours?
    It seems to me this brand is much like a Lambo. Many people love them but have never sat in one let alone lived with it.
    Ask about a Ford 150 and you hear about "mine", ask about these and its about "I know someone".
    Now.... more entry level, the Accord/Camry market. Certainly a huge shift.
    Of recent note many could not wait to put money into or sign up for a Segway which was gonna transform the world.
    Handy and convenient but did not live up to the massive hype.

    For sure there is no shortage of brain power at this company and the place to be as leading engineer in the auto world.
    This move from fad car to base model production will be interesting to watch as it becomes a whole different world.
    There is a big list who have signed up for one and if you really like it your name must be on this list.
    Yet, I know only 1 person who is gonna try it and to be truthful this is a pocket change toy for him like a fancy drone or extra boat.
    Are you chomping at the bit waiting to buy one? Know many Joe Blow Honda/Toyota/Chevy/Ford buyers waiting in the wings for this car?
    Do you see one in your driveway in the next 4 years or is this a net/magazine car that we all read about, like a lot, but do not own?

    You vote here with your checkbook.
    Will you go out and climb into a Tesla or something else when you need to go grab some groceries for the wife?
    It may be in fact the best option for this but I'm just not seeing the "grocery getter" image here at this point in the game.
    Some serious marketing is going to be needed to change this.
    Toyota worked from the bottom up. Tesla is going to have to work from the top down.
    Historically for most dressing up has been easier than dressing down but one never knows and some of the best in the world on the payroll.

    Without a doubt.....very interesting to watch, fun to drive the hot-rod versions,....... but I'm not buying one yet so not voting with my cash.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    You vote here with your checkbook.
    Will you go out and climb into a Tesla or something else when you need to go grab some groceries for the wife?
    It may be in fact the best option for this but I'm just not seeing the "grocery getter" image here at this point in the game.
    I don't know how things are in Michigan, but here in Portland (and all the other West Coast cities), the Tesla Model S is about as common as similar vintage BMW 5 series or Mercedes E class - they are basically everywhere. I live in a 120 unit condo; we have 3 of them in the garage, a couple more in the building across the street of similar size. From what I understand, it's a similar story on East coast; any tony part of town where you would have seen German executive sedans is now queer with Teslas taking over in the parking lots of Whole Foods, outside the law offices, at the pickup lane of the nice private school and at the golf club.

    People keep throwing the Tesla around like it is some exotic car, but it is really designed/priced/used in the same market as a BMW 5, Audi A6 or Mercedes E class. Absolutely an everyday use vehicle, and that is precisely what I see. Remember, the Tesla starts at $60k, you pile some cash on the hood from electric vehicle tax breaks, and people also figure in no having to drop $200 on filling it up with gas every month, so they can put that cash into buying more car.

    And I voted with my wallet. I have an Audi A4 that will be 4 years old when the Model 3 arrives, and I'll totally take the Model 3. So I gave Musk my (refundable!) $1k and got in line the other night.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gkoenig View Post
    I don't know how things are in Michigan, but here in Portland (and all the other West Coast cities), the Tesla Model S is about as common as similar vintage BMW 5 series or Mercedes E class - they are basically everywhere..
    That is a great point to make and kind of strange here as all of these are rare ducks in my neighborhood.
    MIdwest is just....not the same as the coasts. We are just strange to you and you to us.
    A 120 unit condo is crazy weird to me but normal to you.
    Where do you let the dogs run and what do you do with the MX bikes or sleds to release stress in the afternoon?
    (just joking a bit, very different lifestyles. I'm sure you like it just fine)
    We live in very different parts of the world although in the same country. Not good or bad just different.
    My ex wanted to move to downtown NYC, not me, no way. Perhaps part of why ex.

    After a year or two let us know how you like the new car. You seem to be square in the target for this vehicle.
    Does range/recharge become a annoying pain or no big deal? Like the cockpit layout and controls better or worse? Ride and overall feel?
    New of course , hey are new. But live with them for a year or two and they are more like a old live in girlfriend.
    Maybe lots good, some bad, sometimes you keep them, sometimes you wonder about the choice but don't want to admit, sometimes you.........
    Here's to hoping you love it like no other.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by kapps View Post
    Ah, so everyone can just plunk down a couple C notes and the problem is solved? Does mother earth take credit?

    Sorry to sound a bit harsh but when an article tries to put a dollar value on irreparable harm that's being done to the environment, my BS-o-meter starts going off.
    As I read it, the whole point of the article was that electric vehicles actually do the same amount of 'irreparable harm' as traditional gasoline vehicles. The dollar values were to put in perspective just how small of a difference electric vehicles make, because 8 tons of carbon probably sounds like a lot, but it's really a minuscule difference.

    Although the 'Holier than Thou' environmental routine makes a lot more sense now that I know you're from Portland. Maybe come down of your high Audi (soon to be Tesla?) and converse with us mere mortals who go about our daily lives without saving the World with our choice in vehicles. In flyover country (ya know, about 80% of the country) Teslas, BMWs, Mercedes, Porsches, etc. are all a little exotic, mostly because the tools (that's flyover slang for d-bag) who buy them are pretty rare too.

    Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles make a lot more sense than electric vehicles do, so I really have a hard time understanding why they aren't as well known, or as popular. Maybe because the traditional auto manufacturers have developed them, and the environmentalists think they're one degree removed from the devil. Maybe it's because their fuel source would most likely be controlled and created by the current devil (Oil Companies) because they have the resources and infrastructure to do so. Maybe it's because they're not "different" enough - they look and function just like normal cars, meaning people have no way to lord it over those who choose to, or can only afford to drive gasoline cars. Maybe it's because the government hasn't given massive subsidies to the owners of these companies in return for political favors and trading on the 'cool' factor. Maybe it's because there's no way to maintain ridiculous ethanol subsides (quite possibly the single most damaging economic initiative in the World) with Hydrogen generation. (And yes, it's very unpopular to callout the BS that ethanol subsidies are, but I try to be evenhanded)

    All that aside, Mr. Musk seems like a smart guy, and a good businessman. Electric vehicles are a cool idea, but they're not quite ready for market yet (issues with range, quality, etc.) and I personally believe there are better alternatives (several compressed gasses, clean diesels that run algae diesel, etc.) Electric vehicles seem to be windmills for the road: sometimes functional, rarely cost effective (never, without subsidies) and in reality, just a giant "Look at how environmentally conscious I am!" flag.

    But hey, what do I know? I'm only a lowly member of the Society of Automotive Engineers...

    As for all the owner happiness stuff? Well of course they're happy - they're saving the planet and everyone knows it! This reminds me of the study that showed people think the same food tastes better when they paid more for it. I drive a 2001 Honda Odyssey, and it makes me incredibly happy because it's friggin' cheap, hauls all my crap, and I wouldn't even notice if someone dinged it in a parking lot. I can't imagine owning a commuter car I actually care about....what's the point?

    Of course, the whole need for electric vehicles is the impending doom of the planet, right?

    Forbes Welcome

    I happen to be of the opinion that the Earth may, or may not be warming, but it takes either a lack of intelligence, or a lack of intellectual honestly, to claim we know, without a shadow of a doubt, that the Earth is warming, and that this is a bad thing, and it is entirely the fault of the last 200 years of human technological advances, and that raising taxes can somehow fix it. All I can say is, I sure as heck hope the planet is warming (where the benefits may very well outweigh the negatives) because if it's actually cooling (like many scientists are starting to think) we could be screwed.

    44 Not Found

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