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  1. #681
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    Meanwhile the Donald has now decided to tax everything else from china.
    Sending markets down.

    This is terrible - for the US.
    It causes some short term pain for china and the eu and apac - thats all.

    E.
    Chinese chip foundries will need to buy and develop new IP and skills - that takes 2 years.
    After that the US IP labs in chips will never ever get to sell anything, and the US will forever lose the skills and markets and income.

    Same in mining, heavy equipment, and somewhat later 5-10 years in aeroplanes, power electronics, chemicals, medicines.
    The US is only about 20% or less of the global market, and has near zero "swing vote" critical-path products that it makes.
    Today, not in 1990 or the year 2000.

  2. #682
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    Correct me if I'm wrong but the more I see of Trump and hear what he says he's appealing only to his voters and not the people of the USA.

    Be nice if more got off their ass and voted so at least we'd know where many more stood.

  3. #683
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong but the more I see of Trump and hear what he says he's appealing only to his voters and not the people of the USA.

    Be nice if more got off their ass and voted so at least we'd know where many more stood.
    He's got historical approval ratings and historically high strong disapproval ratings.
    His party is in power largely because of electioneering and voter suppression...including voter roll purge rolls and things like kicking native Americans off the rolls because they don't have street addresses...the supreme court eliminated protections left over from the civil rights era and they went hog wild making it hard to vote.
    That said, it looks like voter turn out is going to be up because the nation is starting to pay attention.
    His "teamates" are starting to pull away too.
    Hell, he's been uninvited from events and crashed others.

    His attacks on the media and minorities and immigrants play to his base.
    The neo-NAZIs, their sympathizers, and general bigots aren't going to change their tune...that's the "deplorables" HRC was talking about.
    The rest of his voters simply don't mind having a beer with them...coaxed along by his ongoing lies about communists and open borders.
    It seems likely the house will change parties, the senate was never going to shift because of the "map".
    I'm more interested in things like state houses, governerships, and voter enfranchisement measures.
    In a number of states the people are trying to take the power of redistricting away from the politicians...trying to get a handle on the distorted representation the Republicans have used so effectively to shut out opposition.

  4. #684
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    Strange that in "The land of the free" how few vote and how many aren't allowed to vote.

    U.S. trails most developed countries in voter turnout

    I imagine in a country with only 2 parties it'd often feel like a waste of time. The pest and cholera thing.

  5. #685
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Strange that in "The land of the free" how few vote and how many aren't allowed to vote.

    U.S. trails most developed countries in voter turnout

    I imagine in a country with only 2 parties it'd often feel like a waste of time. The pest and cholera thing.
    You have it exactly!

    Two parties, (not my choice, but better than a disfunctional coalition which seems prevalent lately)

    In the case of the POTUS, the electoral college keeps mob rule from getting it's way. but also means that if one's thoughts are alternate to the majority, there really is no reason to cast the ballot except to say you did. A gesture to patriotism!

    The nice thing about being a pessimist, is there is ample occasion to pleasantly surprised!

    ;-)
    Last edited by CalG; 11-01-2018 at 10:15 PM.

  6. #686
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Strange that in "The land of the free" how few vote
    Why bother ? Tweedledee, Tweedldum, what's the difference ?

    None, really. They are both going to rip me off for 800 billion dollars a year on their stupid, ineffective aircraft carriers and continue to murder people by drones worldwide, the cowardly little bastards thank you for your service my ass, so the best plan is to abstain.

    Fuck them both and the horse they rode in on.

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  8. #687
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    What Trump should do to get liberal support is tax all imports from Japan at say 35%, also any money sent home by Japanese companies in the USA. He could say this is temporary until Japan stops whaling.
    I suppose he might have to wait a season or two to verify they have stopped whaling. They currently kill something like 1500 whales a year. They claim for research only. but they take the meat home and sell it to eat. I suppose we could offer to soak it in formaldehyde for them first.
    Greenpeace would love him.
    Bill D.

  9. #688
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong but the more I see of Trump and hear what he says he's appealing only to his voters and not the people of the USA.

    Be nice if more got off their ass and voted so at least we'd know where many more stood.
    I dunno tariffs can be sensible when you are dealing with a country like China, or entities like the EU, neither of which seem to like free trade on imports.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RC99 View Post
    I dunno tariffs can be sensible when you are dealing with a country like China, or entities like the EU, neither of which seem to like free trade on imports.
    I'd never call tariffs sensible. For small countries with very limited export import potential maybe, just maybe, necessary for survival.

    Using them to see who can piss furthest (as in protectionism and tit for tat) is wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I'd never call tariffs sensible. .
    I think you could say they can be sensible as a negotiating tactic, and think its also accepted among economists (including Trumps econ advisor) they are not sensible to a nations economy or well being of its people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill D View Post
    What Trump should do to get liberal support is tax all imports from Japan at say 35%, also any money sent home by Japanese companies in the USA. He could say this is temporary until Japan stops whaling.
    I suppose he might have to wait a season or two to verify they have stopped whaling. They currently kill something like 1500 whales a year. They claim for research only. but they take the meat home and sell it to eat. I suppose we could offer to soak it in formaldehyde for them first.
    Greenpeace would love him.
    I would not love him but I'd be standing up cheering. Fuck those four-eyed bucktooth savages. There is no excuse for whaling today. None.

    I'd even go 100% on the tariff

  13. #692
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Meanwhile the Donald has now decided to tax everything else from china.
    Sending markets down.

    This is terrible - for the US.
    It causes some short term pain for china and the eu and apac - thats all.

    E.
    Chinese chip foundries will need to buy and develop new IP and skills - that takes 2 years.
    After that the US IP labs in chips will never ever get to sell anything, and the US will forever lose the skills and markets and income.

    Same in mining, heavy equipment, and somewhat later 5-10 years in aeroplanes, power electronics, chemicals, medicines.
    The US is only about 20% or less of the global market, and has near zero "swing vote" critical-path products that it makes.
    Today, not in 1990 or the year 2000.
    Oh ye of little faith. The US should not be underestimated. We are a top market for China and they are valuable supplier. There are negotiations ongoing and the Chinese must be given due consideration and respect in the process. Yes the nature of negotiations in regard to buyer and seller may be taken as a conflict yet these kinds of things are worked out daily with individuals , companies, and Corporations.

    One should not in my opinion look at these talks in context and conclude it is purely adversarial. We both wish to trade yet it could be that under the same conditions we have traded during which time we gave incentive to the relationship giving favored status in trade. Consideration should be given on both sides in regard to each one’s economy and people.

    I am not sure China would be in the position of developing or buying their on IP and new skills within just a couple of years. The cost of buying IP could be very expensive especially if such is not for sale. If it is stolen then long term companies here in the US would not keep doing business because it would cost too much to stay that path.

    It could be we decide to find other markets and suppliers. Such requires a lot of work and change no one wants more work or to trailblazer when we can remain comfortable with positive changes on both sides meeting somewhere inbetween each other’s requirements. India could be a very good alternative for a supplier and other Asian countries. The Phillipines would be a natural place for US investment in all kinds of areas. We should have asked them to become a State after WW2. If so I think the trouble with China over islands would be solved now.

  14. #693
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    The Phillipines would be a natural place for US investment in all kinds of areas. We should have asked them to become a State after WW2. If so I think the trouble with China over islands would be solved now.
    Come off it. You guys would never allow the Philippines to become a US State any more than you will allow Puerto Rico.

    Too many people with the wrong colour skin live there.

    PDW

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    Oh ye of little faith. The US should not be underestimated. We are a top market for China and they are valuable supplier.
    The US represents 18% of China's exports, and exports are about 19% of the Chinese economy. That means, as a percentage of the GDP of China, we are around 3 and a half percent of it. Certainly, the chinese appreciate the income, but, frankly, they can afford to lose us as a market with a little belt tightening, and they have much more experience at belt tightening than we do. And their exports to the rest of the world keep going up, every year. Most likely, if the US completely shut off all chinese imports, it would take China less than 5 years to make up the difference elsewhere. We have more to lose than they do.

    The other thing to remember is US companies, like, say, Apple, could continue to sell Chinese made Iphones everywhere else in the world- so its not like they would "lose" IP or manufacturing facilities owned by US companies- they would just lose the ability to sell those products in the USA.

    Believe me, Apple, Caterpillar, Lincoln Welders, GM, Kohler, and about 200 other US companies would not shut their chinese factories, if they could no longer ship the products to the US- they would continue to make them there, and sell them globally to everyone BUT us. GM already makes half its income from sales inside China. A full on boycott by the US would just shift more "american" companies to being more Chinese based in their manufacturing and exports, as its still cheaper to make a Cadillac in China than it is in the USA. ( and, yes, they make a lot of Cadillacs in China).

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  17. #695
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    The US represents 18% of China's exports, and exports are about 19% of the Chinese economy. That means, as a percentage of the GDP of China, we are around 3 and a half percent of it. ...

    We have more to lose than they do.
    Ries, Isn't that a one-way-street logic there?

    What is the percentage of US exports to China with respect to our GDP?

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  19. #696
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    The other thing to remember is US companies, like, say, Apple, could continue to sell Chinese made Iphones everywhere else in the world-
    agreed, people are way behind the times if they think locating is just lower costs. That advantage still exists but is less and will imo continue to decline. The reason for being there is the size of the market and the growth

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Why bother ? Tweedledee, Tweedldum, what's the difference ?

    None, really. They are both going to rip me off for 800 billion dollars a year on their stupid, ineffective aircraft carriers and continue to murder people by drones worldwide, the cowardly little bastards thank you for your service my ass, so the best plan is to abstain.

    Fuck them both and the horse they rode in on.
    I had half a dozen state offices and a dozen ballot measures and two senators and a rep.
    Don’t be a jackass.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    I had half a dozen state offices ...
    Gavin Newsome and ... umm ... ummm ... somebody-or-other.

    Be still, my heart.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Strange that in "The land of the free" how few vote

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Why bother ? Tweedledee, Tweedldum, what's the difference ?

    None, really. They are both going to rip me off for 800 billion dollars a year on their stupid, ineffective aircraft carriers and continue to murder people by drones worldwide, the cowardly little bastards thank you for your service my ass, so the best plan is to abstain.

    Fuck them both and the horse they rode in on.
    Well said!

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Gavin Newsome and ... umm ... ummm ... somebody-or-other.

    Be still, my heart.
    Tax issues state referenda amendments...worth the effort.


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